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Gujarat heading towards a photo finish, BJP-Congress tie on vote share: ABP-CSDS poll

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ABP-CSDS opinion poll shows BJP marginally ahead in race for forming government in Gujarat but Congress is fast bridging the gap in Prime Minister’s home state

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah may be crying hoarse claiming that their party was once again on way to victory – winning 150 seats – in their home state of Gujarat, but if the latest Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll on the Gujarat Assembly polls is anything to go by, then the Congress is fast gaining political ground in the western state.

The opinion poll shows that the BJP and Congress could both end up with a 43 per cent vote share in the elections – due in two phases scheduled for December 9 and 14 – and that the saffron party could manage to retain power just by the skin of its teeth – winning between 91 and 99 seats in the 182-member state assembly. The Congress, according to the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll, is likely to finish a very close second, winning between 78 and 86 seats with the remaining going to independents and others.

If the opinion poll is anywhere close to the ground reality, then they mean a huge boost for the Congress whose campaign in Gujarat is being led by the party’s ‘president-elect’ Rahul Gandhi. The opinion poll suggests that the Congress, riding high on an anti-incumbency wave coupled with the support of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, is looking at its best ever performance in Gujarat since 1995, when the BJP romped to power in the state and has remained undefeated ever since.

Nearly all aspects of the poll show that the BJP has every cause to be worried in Gujarat – something that seems closer to reality considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah’s campaign rallies in their home state have now been marked not by massive crowds but by a huge number of empty chairs.

This is the third in a series of opinion polls that the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News combine has conducted in Gujarat since early August this year and the latest findings reveal a steady upswing in voter sentiment towards the Congress party. While the first opinion poll done by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News had predicted a vote-share of 29 per cent for the Congress against 59 per cent for the BJP, the second poll showed the Congress moving towards a 41 per cent vote share while the BJP’s share plummeting to 47 per cent. With the BJP and Congress both pegged at a 43 per cent vote share according to the latest survey, the Grand Old Party has managed to – at least as per the opinion poll – increase its support among the voters by an impressive 14 per cent in just the past four months while the BJP seems to have lost support of 16 per cent of the electorate. It is pertinent to note that in the first-past-the-post system of elections that India follows; even a one percentage point swing can often change the course of a party’s electoral fortunes from definite defeat to an assured victory.

What is a greater cause of worry for the BJP perhaps is its rapidly eroding popularity in not just the state’s rural areas – which usually favoured the Congress even when the party faced humiliating defeats – but also in the urban areas which have long been considered the BJP’s main votebank, irrespective of caste-equations.

The opinion poll released on Monday showed that while the Congress was expanding on its already strong bastion of north Gujarat, it was also making significant leads in the southern part of the state, while the BJP, although ahead in central Gujarat and the Saurashtra region was also fast losing voter support in these traditional strongholds.

In central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get 38 per cent votes against the BJP’s 54 per cent while in north Gujarat, the Congress is expected to fetch 49 per cent of votes while the BJP could be limited at 44 per cent.

Significantly, the survey shows that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November among the voters of his home state. During the same period, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent.

The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders – a community that constitutes a huge chunk of Gujarat’s electorate. The survey claims that though in October the BJP had a lead of four points among traders; the poll conducted last month showed the trend reversing, with the Congress now getting 43 per cent of the community’s votes as opposed to the BJP’s 40 per cent. This is apparently an indication that the trader community is buying into Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s poll pitch of demonetisation and the GST rollout having spelt doom for their business.

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Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi slam Uttar Pradesh police for blocking Sambhal visit

The Leader of Opposition said that he was ready to relinquish his convoy and go to Sambhal alone with the police.

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Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi slam Uttar Pradesh police for blocking Sambhal visit

Senior Congress leader and the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi today asserted that the Uttar Pradesh police stopped his convoy at the Ghazipur border, blocking his planned visit to violence-hit Sambhal. The Senior Congress leader added that the police denied him his constitutional rights to meet the affected people.

The Leader of Opposition said that he was ready to relinquish his convoy and go to Sambhal alone with the police. He said the authorities had asked him to return after some days. Rahul Gandhi mentioned that as a Leader of Opposition, it is his right to go to the violence-hit area, but the police are stopping him. He added that the police said that they will allow him to go after a few days.

He pointed out that denying him to go to Sambhal is against the rights of LoP and the Constitution. He said that they want to go to Sambhal and see what happened there, and meet the people. Claiming that his Constitutional rights are not being given to him, he said that this is the new India, an India to end the Constitution.

Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra stated that as the Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi has the right to meet the victims of the violence. She mentioned that whatever happened in Sambhal is wrong. She asserted that Rahul Gandhi is the leader of the opposition, he has constitutional rights and he cannot be stopped like this. She continued that Rahul Gandhi has the constitutional right to be allowed to go and meet the victims. 

She asserted that Rahul Gandhi also said that he would go alone with the UP police but they are not ready to do that either. She said that the police have no answer, adding that maybe the situation in Uttar Pradesh is such that they cannot handle even this much. 

Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh’s deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak said Congress leaders were trying to politicise the Sambhal violence. He further appealed to the politicians to not spoil the law and order of the state. He said that cartridge shells that came from Pakistan have been recovered there and the matter is being investigated. 

He assured that whoever is involved in this will not be spared. He continued that UP has changed now, and they will not be able to divide UP. He mentioned that whenever there is a big disturbance, the police impose Section 144, under which a crowd cannot gather until peace is restored. As long as the section is in place, Congress should not attempt such acts there, he said.

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Assasination attempt on Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Badal during his penance at Golden Temple

Sukhbir Singh Badal, a former Deputy Chief Minister of Punjab, is performing sewadar duties after the Akal Takht pronounced the religious punishment for him and several other Akali leaders for mistakes committed during the party’s rule in Punjab from 2007 to 2017.

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Assasination attempt on Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Badal during his penance at Golden Temple

In a tragic incident, a man opened fire at Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) chief Sukhbir Singh Badal this morning while he was serving his penance at the entrance of Golden Temple in Amritsar. Reportedly, the shooter was overpowered by people present on the spot.

Sukhbir Singh Badal, a former Deputy Chief Minister of Punjab, is performing sewadar duties after the Akal Takht pronounced the religious punishment for him and several other Akali leaders for mistakes committed during the party’s rule in Punjab from 2007 to 2017. The SAD chief has been asked to serve as a sewadar, wash dishes and clean shoes at Golden Temple and several other gurdwaras.

In the past two days, Sukhbir Singh Badal has been sitting at the gate of Golden Temple with a spear in one hand and dressed in blue sewadar uniform. The Akali Dal leader’s leg is in a cast and he is in a wheelchair.

Reportedly, the incident occurred around 9 am on Wednesday, shortly after SAD leader Badal had taken the sewadar’s place at the Golden Temple gate. The man has been identified as Narain Singh from Gurdaspur district, about 75 km from Amritsar. Several visuals from the spot show him slowly approaching the gate, and then quickly brings out a gun. 

Another man standing near Sukhbir Singh Badal spots him in time and holds his hand. The gun goes off but misses the SAD Chief and others near him and hits the wall. The shooter has been arrested and police are investigating the motive behind the shocking attack.

Meanwhile, Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has said the promptness of the state police foiled a conspiracy to defame Punjab and Punjabis. Taking to X, the Chief MInister said that the police achieved great success by arresting the assailant on the spot with their promptness. He appreciated the promptness of the police, and strongly condemned the attack on Sukhbir Badal. He added that he has issued strict instructions to the police to immediately investigate the incident and submit a report.

Furthermore, Amritsar Police Commissioner Gurpreet Singh Bhullar said alert police officers Rishpal Singh, Jasbir and Parminder Singh managed to foil the attack. He added that Narain Singh has a criminal record, and they have registered a case and the incident is probed from all angles. He also appealed to people to maintain peace.

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Devendra Fadnavis to take oath as Maharashtra Chief Minister tomorrow

Devendra Fadnavis became the Chief Minister for the first time at 44 in 2014, making him the second-youngest after Sharad Pawar.

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Devendra Fadnavis to take oath as Maharashtra Chief Minister tomorrow

Putting an end to the suspense over the top post, a crucial BJP meeting on Wednesday decided Devendra Fadnavis to be the next Maharashtra Chief Minister. Reportedly, Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde will be the Deputy Chief Minister along with NCP’s Ajit Pawar. 

BJP Maharashtra President Chandrashekhar Bawankule said that Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar will take oath on Thursday at 5 pm at Azad Maidan in Mumbai. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the swearing-in ceremony. After being named as the chief ministerial pick, Devendra Fadnavis addressed a party event, where he reiterated PM Modi’s ek hai to safe hai slogan. 

Reportedly, at the BJP meeting, Fadnavis’s name for the top post was proposed by former Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, who was sent as the central observer to Mumbai. The proposal was unanimously seconded by senior BJP leaders like Sudhir Mungantiwar and Pankaja Munde.

This development follows nearly two weeks after the Mahayuti received a massive mandate securing 230 out of 288 seats in the Assembly elections. Nonetheless, the coalition had not been able to decide the contours of the new government after Shinde Sena’s initial insistence on being made the Chief Minister again.

Earlier, discussions moved forward after Eknath Shinde publicly said that he wouldn’t be a hurdle to government formation and declared that he would abide by the decision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

Devendra Fadnavis was majorly seen as the chief architect of the BJP’s biggest ever victory in Maharashtra, winning 132 of the 149 seats it contested. Additionally, the RSS has also been rooting strongly for Fadnavis for the top post in Maharashtra.

Devendra Fadnavis became the Chief Minister for the first time at 44 in 2014, making him the second-youngest after Sharad Pawar. During that time, the BJP was in coalition with the then undivided Shiv Sena.

Following the 2019 Assembly election, as the Shiv Sena walked out of the alliance amid a tussle over rotational chief ministership, the Fadnavis-led BJP joined hands with Ajit Pawar. Devendra Fadnavis took oath as the Chief Minister and Ajit Pawar as the Deputy Chief Minister. Nonetheless, the government lasted for around 80 hours as Ajit Pawar returned to the NCP fold.

After Eknath Shinde’s rebellion led to the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in 2022, he agreed to be the Deputy Chief Minister under Shinde. 

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