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Gujarat heading towards a photo finish, BJP-Congress tie on vote share: ABP-CSDS poll

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ABP-CSDS opinion poll shows BJP marginally ahead in race for forming government in Gujarat but Congress is fast bridging the gap in Prime Minister’s home state

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah may be crying hoarse claiming that their party was once again on way to victory – winning 150 seats – in their home state of Gujarat, but if the latest Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll on the Gujarat Assembly polls is anything to go by, then the Congress is fast gaining political ground in the western state.

The opinion poll shows that the BJP and Congress could both end up with a 43 per cent vote share in the elections – due in two phases scheduled for December 9 and 14 – and that the saffron party could manage to retain power just by the skin of its teeth – winning between 91 and 99 seats in the 182-member state assembly. The Congress, according to the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll, is likely to finish a very close second, winning between 78 and 86 seats with the remaining going to independents and others.

If the opinion poll is anywhere close to the ground reality, then they mean a huge boost for the Congress whose campaign in Gujarat is being led by the party’s ‘president-elect’ Rahul Gandhi. The opinion poll suggests that the Congress, riding high on an anti-incumbency wave coupled with the support of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, is looking at its best ever performance in Gujarat since 1995, when the BJP romped to power in the state and has remained undefeated ever since.

Nearly all aspects of the poll show that the BJP has every cause to be worried in Gujarat – something that seems closer to reality considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah’s campaign rallies in their home state have now been marked not by massive crowds but by a huge number of empty chairs.

This is the third in a series of opinion polls that the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News combine has conducted in Gujarat since early August this year and the latest findings reveal a steady upswing in voter sentiment towards the Congress party. While the first opinion poll done by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News had predicted a vote-share of 29 per cent for the Congress against 59 per cent for the BJP, the second poll showed the Congress moving towards a 41 per cent vote share while the BJP’s share plummeting to 47 per cent. With the BJP and Congress both pegged at a 43 per cent vote share according to the latest survey, the Grand Old Party has managed to – at least as per the opinion poll – increase its support among the voters by an impressive 14 per cent in just the past four months while the BJP seems to have lost support of 16 per cent of the electorate. It is pertinent to note that in the first-past-the-post system of elections that India follows; even a one percentage point swing can often change the course of a party’s electoral fortunes from definite defeat to an assured victory.

What is a greater cause of worry for the BJP perhaps is its rapidly eroding popularity in not just the state’s rural areas – which usually favoured the Congress even when the party faced humiliating defeats – but also in the urban areas which have long been considered the BJP’s main votebank, irrespective of caste-equations.

The opinion poll released on Monday showed that while the Congress was expanding on its already strong bastion of north Gujarat, it was also making significant leads in the southern part of the state, while the BJP, although ahead in central Gujarat and the Saurashtra region was also fast losing voter support in these traditional strongholds.

In central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get 38 per cent votes against the BJP’s 54 per cent while in north Gujarat, the Congress is expected to fetch 49 per cent of votes while the BJP could be limited at 44 per cent.

Significantly, the survey shows that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November among the voters of his home state. During the same period, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent.

The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders – a community that constitutes a huge chunk of Gujarat’s electorate. The survey claims that though in October the BJP had a lead of four points among traders; the poll conducted last month showed the trend reversing, with the Congress now getting 43 per cent of the community’s votes as opposed to the BJP’s 40 per cent. This is apparently an indication that the trader community is buying into Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s poll pitch of demonetisation and the GST rollout having spelt doom for their business.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Sunita Kejriwal holds maiden Lok Sabha election roadshow in Delhi

Sunita Kejriwal will also hold a road show in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday. AAP party leaders said Sunita Kejriwal will also spearhead the campaign for AAP candidates in South Delhi and New Delhi constituencies as well as in Haryana, Gujarat and Punjab.

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Aam Aadmi Party began its campaign for 3rd phase of Lok Sabha elections 2024 on Saturday with Sunita Kejriwal, wife of jailed Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal holding a roadshow in Delhi. In a massive rally, Sunita Kejriwal was be seen standing on a vehicle holding her hands and greeting the people of the area. AAP’s East Delhi candidate Kuldeep Kumar was seen sitting on the vehicle as he showcased a portrait of Rani Laxmibai.

Earlier ahead of Sunita Kejrieal’s roadshow, Kuldeep Kumar told the media that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who worked to provide the best school, and free- electricity to the people of Delhi has been framed in a fake case by BJP. Kumar further added that from today onwards Sunita Kejriwal’s roadshow will start and she is going to seek support and blessings from the Delhi people to continue its fight against the BJP government.

Aam Aadmi Party workers also staged a protest under the banner of Jail ka jawab vote se near Delhi’s Lakshmi Nagar area on Saturday against the arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in connection with an excise policy case.

After the Delhi CM’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the liquor policy case in March, Sunita Kejriwal has taken up a more prominent role in campaigning activities for the Aam Aadmi Party. Since the Delhi CM’s arrest, Atishi and other AAP leaders have alleged that the arrest was made so that to the AAP Supremo can be prevented from campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections. Arvind Kejriwal has been sent to judicial custody until May 7.

Sunita Kejriwal will also hold a road show in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday. AAP party leaders said Sunita Kejriwal will also spearhead the campaign for AAP candidates in South Delhi and New Delhi constituencies as well as in Haryana, Gujarat and Punjab. She is emerging as a star campaigner for Aam Aadmi Party.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Mallikarjun Kharge says candidates for Amethi, Rae Bareli seats in Uttar Pradesh will be announced in a few days

On being asked about the names of the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies Mallikarjun Kharge said the people will have to wait for a few more days. He said when the names of candidates come from people to him and he will sign the notification, then the announcement will be made.

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Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday said that the candidates for prestigious Amethi and Rae Bareli seats in Uttar Pradesh will be announced in a few days. He was addressing a press conference where he claimed that though the BJP says the corrupt must be put in jails, when leaders facing corruption charges join the saffron party, they are put on the lap and sent to Rajya Sabha or assembly.

On being asked about the names of the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies he said the people will have to wait for a few more days. He said when the names of candidates come from people to him and he will sign the notification, then the announcement will be made.

On being questioned about Congress leaders changing constituencies Kharge asked how many times have Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani changed their seats. His response came when asked about the BJP criticising Rahul Gandhi for fighting the elections from Kerala’s Wayanad instead of Amethi. Referring to Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Kharge said the Congress is not affected by people who grew up in the party and left it later.

The Congress president launched an all round attack on the BJP and PM Modi and said the prime minister did not implement even one of his electoral promises and still says Modi did a lot of work for the country. Addressing the press conference he said the BJP never fought for the independence of India, but Congress is a party of those who made India independent. He said the BJP never fought for the independence of India, for the development of India. The Congress President said the BJP speaks so much about patriotism and that the contribution of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri is nothing before them.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Priyanka Gandhi accuses BJP of planning to change the Constitution, criticises PM Modi for inflation

Priyanka Gandhi was speaking at an election rally at Dharampur village of tribal dominated Valsad district held in support of Congress candidate for ST-reserved Valsad Lok Sabha seat, Anant Patel.

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Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi on Saturday said the BJP may be denying it now, but the party will change the Constitution if it returns to power. She targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi over inflation and called him the mehengai man.

Gandhi said the BJP leaders and candidates are saying that they will change the Constitution. She said PM Modi is denying it and this is BJP’s tactic. Priyanka Gandhi was speaking at an election rally at Dharampur village of tribal dominated Valsad district, Gujarat held in support of Congress candidate for ST-reserved Valsad Lok Sabha seat, Anant Patel.

Gandhi said first the BJP will deny what they want to do. But after coming to power they will implement it. She further added the BJP wants to change the constitution to weaken the common people and deprive them of their rights given in the Constitution. She said the BJP leaders project the Prime Minister as powerful and say that chutki bajake ladai rukwa dete hai (he can stop the Russia- Ukraine war with the snap of his fingers). She asked why is Prime Minister unable to remove poverty just like that?

Priyanka Gandhi claimed the tribal population in Gujarat which is Modi’s home state and the whole country is suffering from issues like rising inflation, unemployment, low remumberation, loss of land, violence against women and other atrocities. She highlighted the Congress manifesto and said it addresses issues faced by the tribal population.

She assured the people that the Congress will bring schemes like MGNREGA for urban areas where families will get 100 days of guaranteed work. She said the Congress is committed to filing about 30 lakh vacancies in government jobs, providing subsidised diesel to fishermen and take the minimum wage to Rs 400. Gandhi said the Congress is going to work out sub plans for Scheduled Tribes and scheduled castes.

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