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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

India News

India Metro Rail Network May Overtake US in 2 Years

India’s metro rail network has reached 1,170 km across 26 cities. Union minister Manohar Lal said the country could overtake the US in network length within two years.

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Manohar Lal Khattar

India is on track to become the country with the second-largest metro rail network in the world after China, with Union Minister Manohar Lal saying the country could overtake the United States within the next two years.

India’s metro rail network has now expanded to 1,170 km across 26 cities. The network is only 216 km shorter than the US metro rail network, which stands at 1,386 km, according to figures cited by the minister.

India’s metro network expands rapidly

Speaking after the inauguration of an extended metro service in Indore, Manohar Lal highlighted the pace at which metro connectivity has grown in India.

He said metro services were operational across just 245 km in five cities when Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office in 2014. The network has since expanded to 1,170 km across 26 cities.

The minister said India could overtake the US in terms of metro rail network length in the next two years and become the world’s second-largest country in this segment after China.

China currently has around 8,000 km of metro rail lines, according to the figures cited by the minister.

Indore metro extension inaugurated

The minister made the remarks after inaugurating an extended section of the Indore metro. The project was built at a cost of around Rs 2,850 crore.

The Indore metro was earlier operating commercially on a six-km stretch between Gandhi Nagar and Super Corridor-3 stations. Following the extension, the service will operate on a 17-km route between Gandhi Nagar and Malviya Nagar Chauraha.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav said the metro service would mark a new phase in Indore’s development. He also said the network would eventually be extended to Ujjain and other nearby areas.

India’s metro rail network: Key figures

  • India currently has 1,170 km of operational metro rail network.
  • Metro services are operational across 26 cities.
  • The US has around 1,386 km of metro rail network.
  • India is currently 216 km behind the US.
  • China has around 8,000 km of metro rail lines.
  • India’s operational network stood at 245 km across five cities in 2014.

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PM Modi returns to SRCC after 13 years, revisits 2013 glass full speech

PM Narendra Modi returned to SRCC after 13 years for its centenary celebrations, revisiting themes from his landmark 2013 address.

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PM Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to Delhi University’s Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC) on Saturday, 13 years after his previous visit to the institution as Gujarat chief minister. 

His latest visit came as SRCC marked its centenary celebrations. Modi’s 2013 address at the college had attracted significant attention as he spoke about India’s youth, governance and the country’s demographic potential.

In 2013, Modi was Gujarat chief minister and had not yet been named the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. He returned to the same campus this year as Prime Minister, having completed 12 years as Prime Minister and serving his third consecutive term. 

What PM Modi said at SRCC in 2013

The 2013 lecture was titled Emerging Business Models in the Global Scenario. The address also covered governance and India’s young population.

He described India’s youth as a source of national strength rather than simply a group of new-age voters. He also highlighted India’s demographic advantage and argued that the country needed to make better use of its young population.

One of the notable moments from the speech involved a glass of water.  Modi contrasted the conventional descriptions of a glass as half full or half empty and said he viewed it as full, with half containing water and the other half air.

The speech also included his remarks on technology and young Indians. Referring to an anecdote from a visit to Taiwan, Modi used the phrase “mouse-charmers” to describe Indians using computers and suggested that young Indians had the ability to influence the world through technology.

‘Minimum government, maximum governance’

Modi’s 2013 address also touched on governance. He spoke about the role of government and the need for better governance.

He also spoke about India’s potential in the 21st century. 

Modi returns as PM for SRCC centenary

The September 5 visit coincided with Teachers’ Day and SRCC’s 100th anniversary. The Prime Minister’s Office had announced that Modi would participate in the college’s centenary celebrations and address the gathering. SRCC was established in 1926 by industrialist and philanthropist Sir Shri Ram.

Earlier this year, Modi also met the SRCC governing body at his residence in April in connection with the college’s centenary celebrations and released a commemorative postage stamp marking the occasion. 

The return to SRCC came 13 years after his 2013 appearance at the college, when he addressed students as Gujarat chief minister.

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Supreme Court judge calls police assault on CJP protesters very distressing

Supreme Court judge Justice Ujjal Bhuyan criticised alleged police assaults on CJP protesters and raised concerns over excessive force.

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Supreme Court

Supreme Court judge Justice Ujjal Bhuyan has criticised the assault of protesters by police personnel during the recent CJP demonstrations in Delhi, describing the conduct as “very, very distressing” and a matter of serious concern.

Speaking at the launch of retired IPS officer Yashovardhan Azad’s book Policing the Republic, Justice Bhuyan said the detachment expected from police officers appeared to be diminishing.

He expressed concern over young Indian Police Service officers personally participating in the assault of protesters and demonstrators.

Justice Bhuyan stresses need for responsible policing

Justice Bhuyan said effective policing does not require excessive use of force or infringement of human rights. He emphasised that the police play an important role in maintaining public confidence because citizens generally approach the police when they feel they have been wronged.

He said maintaining the credibility of the police force was therefore of “utmost importance”.

The judge’s remarks come amid continuing scrutiny of the police and paramilitary response to the CJP protests in Delhi.

Supreme Court panel to examine police action

The Supreme Court has constituted a high-level panel to investigate allegations concerning the use of force by Delhi Police during the July 20 student protests at Jantar Mantar and the subsequent Parliament march.

The panel, headed by former Supreme Court judge Justice R Subhash Reddy, will examine complaints relating to lathi charges, tear gas, pellet guns and electronic batons. It will also look into allegations of targeted harassment or molestation of female protesters and review available CCTV and video footage.

The police response during the protests has faced criticism, while Delhi Police has maintained that its personnel were also attacked during the clashes.

Judge raises concern over custodial deaths and torture

Justice Bhuyan also spoke about custodial torture and deaths, describing custodial death as one of the gravest crimes in a society governed by the rule of law.

He stressed that torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment cannot be accepted, regardless of whether such conduct takes place during investigation, interrogation or other circumstances.

The judge further warned that when government functionaries themselves become lawbreakers, it can undermine respect for the law and encourage lawlessness.

He questioned whether citizens lose their fundamental rights simply because they have been arrested by police.

‘Fake encounters’ cannot be part of policing

Justice Bhuyan also addressed allegations of extra-judicial killings, commonly referred to as “fake encounters”. Referring to a 2011 Supreme Court judgment, he said such encounters undermine the rule of law.

He stressed that an “encounter philosophy” cannot become part of legitimate policing and said proven fake encounters involving serving police officers must be treated with the utmost seriousness.

The Supreme Court’s panel will now examine the allegations surrounding the police action during the July 20 protests as scrutiny of the events continues.

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