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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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Delhi deploys 25,000 personnel, installs CCTV cameras ahead of CJP march

More than 25,000 police and paramilitary personnel have been deployed in Delhi ahead of the CJP’s planned protest march at Connaught Place. Authorities have also imposed restrictions and stepped up CCTV surveillance.

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Delhi has stepped up security ahead of a planned protest march by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), with more than 25,000 police and paramilitary personnel deployed and additional surveillance measures introduced in parts of the national capital.

The planned “Lehra Do Tiranga” march is scheduled to take place at Central Park in Connaught Place on Friday, October 16. Authorities have also imposed prohibitory orders in Connaught Place and surrounding areas as part of the security arrangements.

Security tightened across Connaught Place

The security arrangements include the deployment of police and paramilitary personnel, along with the installation of additional CCTV cameras at Central Park and Rajiv Chowk Metro Station.

Prohibitory orders have been imposed under Section 163 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS) in Connaught Place and nearby areas. Central Park is also scheduled to remain closed for two days, with authorities advising the public to avoid the area during the arrangements.

A high-level meeting chaired by Delhi Police Commissioner Anurag Kumar, attended by senior police officers, was held on Thursday to review preparations ahead of the planned demonstration.

Why CJP is planning the march

The CJP has called the march to protest the arrest of its leaders Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka and to demand the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar over alleged irregularities in voter rolls.

The party’s protest is centred on its allegations concerning the electoral roll revision process. These are the protesters’ claims and should not be treated as independently established findings.

With Jantar Mantar no longer designated as a protest site, Central Park in Connaught Place has emerged as the proposed location for the fresh demonstration. The protest has also received support from the Aam Aadmi Party and the All India Students’ Association, according to the report.

Traders raise concerns over business disruptions

The heightened security measures have also prompted concerns among traders in the area.

Traders at Palika Bazaar have expressed concern about disruptions during the festive season, pointing to losses associated with previous protests. The concerns reflect the potential impact of repeated demonstrations and security restrictions on commercial activity in central Delhi.

Delhi Police has said it will facilitate peaceful demonstrators selectively while maintaining public order and protecting property.

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Mallikarjun Kharge’s ‘Your Friends’ jab at Rahul Gandhi over congress exits

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge took a dig at Rahul Gandhi after the Leader of the Opposition reportedly described former party leaders Jyotiraditya Scindia and Ghulam Nabi Azad as among those who had left the Congress.

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Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge made a pointed remark about former Congress leaders after Rahul Gandhi reportedly described some of those who left the party as people who had been driven by personal interests or fear. The exchange took place during an informal interaction involving young Congress workers, according to a report published on October 15.

Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, reportedly referred to former Congress leaders Jyotiraditya Scindia and Ghulam Nabi Azad while discussing people who had left the party. Kharge responded with a quip that drew attention to Rahul Gandhi’s earlier association with the leaders.

What Rahul Gandhi said about leaders who left Congress

During the interaction, Rahul Gandhi reportedly said that the Congress was now left with committed workers, describing those who remained in the party as ‘babbar sher’ or lions. He alleged that people who were greedy or afraid had left, citing Scindia and Azad as examples.

His reported remarks referred to people who, he suggested, had left because of the attraction of positions and security or fear of investigative agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

These were Rahul Gandhi’s political characterisations of the leaders who left the Congress, rather than independently established explanations for their departures.

Kharge’s response to Rahul Gandhi

Reacting to Rahul Gandhi’s account, Kharge remarked, “They were all your friends.”

The comment referred to the association Rahul Gandhi had previously shared with some of the leaders who later left the Congress. Rahul Gandhi responded by saying that his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, was present and knew that Scindia was not his friend.

He subsequently reflected on the difficulty of identifying friends and opponents in politics, saying that people who appear to be friends may not necessarily be so, and the reverse may also be true.

Why Jyotiraditya Scindia and Ghulam Nabi Azad were mentioned

Jyotiraditya Scindia left the Congress in 2020 and joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). His departure was followed by a political crisis in Madhya Pradesh that resulted in the fall of the Congress government led by Kamal Nath.

Ghulam Nabi Azad, a veteran Congress leader, resigned from the party in August 2022. In his resignation letter, he criticised Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and the functioning of the party’s internal decision-making process.

Both leaders subsequently became prominent examples in political discussions about senior figures leaving the Congress, although their reasons and circumstances differed.

Rahul Gandhi’s message to young Congress workers

The interaction also focused on protests and political mobilisation. Rahul Gandhi reportedly told young Congress workers that demonstrations and struggles were part of their political training and encouraged them to explore new and creative ways of protesting.

He also suggested holding protests at Jantar Mantar, according to the report.

Congress president Kharge and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra were present during the interaction. Rahul Gandhi also claimed that the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi was dependent on the next eight to 10 months, though the report did not establish this as an independently verified assessment.

The exchange between Kharge and Rahul Gandhi offered a glimpse into the Congress leadership’s informal discussions, while bringing the departures of Scindia and Azad back into the political conversation.

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Delhi Police offers 11-person limit for CJP’s Connaught Place protest

Delhi Police has offered to facilitate a group of 11 people at Central Park in Connaught Place for the Cockroach Janata Party’s October 16 protest, while warning that violations of prohibitory orders could invite legal action.

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CJP protest to continue

Delhi Police has proposed allowing a group of 11 people to carry the national flag and sing the national anthem at Central Park in Connaught Place on October 16, ahead of a protest called by the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) over alleged electoral fraud.

The police said it could facilitate the group at a suitable place in the park, while appealing to the public not to join the proposed gathering in large numbers. The offer comes amid prohibitory orders in Connaught Place and adjoining areas under Section 163 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS).

CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke has called on people to assemble at Central Park at 5 pm on Friday with the national flag. The proposed demonstration, named “Lehra Do Tiranga”, follows the detention of CJP members Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka during an earlier protest.

Why Delhi Police proposed limiting the gathering

In its statement, Delhi Police cited the prevailing security and law-and-order situation in the area. It also referred to information from the New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) that Central Park would remain closed on October 16 and 17 for administrative reasons.

Deputy Commissioner of Police Neha Yadav said the NDMC had informed the police about the closure and had asked that no gathering be allowed near the park.

The police also cited representations from trader and market associations in Connaught Place and surrounding areas. According to the police, the associations had raised concerns about unlawful assemblies and their impact on businesses, particularly during the festive season.

Police warned that violations of Section 163 BNSS would invite appropriate legal action. It also stressed that the national flag must be displayed and carried, and the national anthem sung, in the prescribed manner with due respect and dignity.

Delhi High Court declines to stop CJP protest

The proposed gathering reached the Delhi High Court after a vendor sought intervention over concerns about disruption to businesses and public movement in Connaught Place.

On Thursday, the court declined to restrain the CJP from holding the protest. It recorded the police’s assurance that all possible measures under the law would be taken to regulate the gathering and maintain peace.

The petition was filed by a vendor at Palika Bazar in Connaught Place, who raised concerns about the potential impact of the demonstration on traders and others working in the area.

Additional Solicitor General Chetan Sharma, appearing for the authorities, told the court that steps had already been taken to regulate the proposed protest.

CJP’s protest call follows detention of party members

Dipke’s October 16 protest call follows earlier demonstrations over alleged electoral fraud. CJP members Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka are in jail on trespass charges after raising the national flag at Jantar Mantar earlier this week, according to the report.

The party has been protesting over alleged electoral fraud and has raised questions about the Election Commission.

Dipke has urged people to gather at Central Park with the national flag, arguing that raising the Tricolour should not be treated as a crime.

The police’s proposal to facilitate a group of 11 people came as the authorities sought to prevent a larger gathering at the site. The CJP’s response to the police’s offer was still awaited in the report published on October 15.

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