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Is India’s future in Afghanistan under threat?

On February 29, the US signed a hugely-significant deal with Taliban, paving the way for exit of American troops from Afghanistan and mainstreaming of the fanatic Islamist organisation.

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India-Afghanistan

On February 29, the US signed a hugely-significant deal with Taliban, paving the way for exit of American troops from Afghanistan and mainstreaming of the fanatic Islamist organisation.Two months on, India has reportedly wound up its operations at two of its four consulates in Afghanistan — Jalalabad and Herat provinces. The entire staff of these two Missions, along with the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) personnel deployed there for security, was quietly evacuated a few days back, according to some reports.

The operation was carried out when the entire world remained occupied with the coronavirus pandemic and amidst inputs of security threats.The temporary closure of the two Indian Consulates, located close to Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan and Iran, may not be directly linked to the US-Taliban deal. However, the implications of the agreement on India’s future in the war-torn country cannot be ignored.

The US-Taliban deal, while mainstreaming the ‘terrorist’ outfit, has facilitated return of thousands of Afghans, most probably including the Taliban operatives and sympathisers, to their home from Pakistan.This clearly heightens the threat for Indian interests in Afghanistan, particularly since there have been a number of terror attacks on Indian assets, including Embassy, Jalalabad Consulate and Indian nationals, carried out by Taliban, at the behest of Pakistan.

Significantly, the evacuation took place days after a terror attack on a Gurdwara in Kabul on March 25, which killed 25 people.India has two more consulates in Afghanistan – in Mazar-e-Sharif and Kandahar – besides the Embassy in Kabul, which continue to function as of now. A review of security of these assets is also being undertaken.

The closure of the two consulates may have been carried out in secrecy but the significance of the move speaks volumes about the future of India in Afghanistan, which seems to be under threat in the aftermath of the US-Taliban agreement. At stake is an investment of over 2.4 billion dollars and  numerous capacity-building activities spread across the war-torn country.

The deal, besides other things, mandates withdrawal of the troops of the US and its allies from Afghanistan within 14 months. The deal brought Taliban, which was a top target for the US for nearly 18 years, into mainstream, thus encouraging the terror outfit to step up its military operations and attacks to dislodge the democratic setup and decimate other Afghan factions.

Ever since the agreement in Doha was signed, the Taliban has stepped up its military campaign against the government forces, in its tryst to capture and control more and more areas of Afghanistan, with ultimate aim of possibly taking over Kabul.

The increasing prowess of Taliban is particularly worrying for India, considering the history of terror attacks carried out by this proxy outfit of Pakistan’s notorious intelligence agency ISI on Indian assets, including the Embassy and personnel.

If Taliban succeeds in capturing power in Kabul, India is going to again see an Afghanistan administration which is hostile and inimical, like it was during the period 1996 to 2001.Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani is facing intense pressure, not only because of the increased military aggression by the Taliban but also because of demand for release of Taliban cadres from prisons as per the agreement reached between the US and the fanatic Islamic group.

The Ghani government is not in a mood to release the Taliban cadres, wary that the move will give a boost to the outfit.US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has said “Both sides must also accelerate the release of prisoners” even as he urged Taliban to call a humanitarian ceasefire during Ramadan month.

“…Ramadan offers the Taliban an opportunity to embrace a humanitarian ceasefire to reduce violence and suspend offensive military operations until the health crisis is over,” Khalilzad tweeted.

Ghani also, on the eve of Ramadan, appealed to the Taliban last week for a ceasefire in view of the special conditions created by coronavirus.Ghani’s appeal came as dozens of Afghan security force members were killed in Taliban attacks in the recent past.

Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen, however, ruled out a ceasefire as he referred to the prisoners’ release issue and termed Ghani’s appeal insincere.The Taliban is demanding release of 5,000 of its cadres by the Afghan government as per its deal with the US. The Afghan government has agreed to the release of 1,500 prisoners but through a conditioned and gradual process.

According to National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib, five of 15 prisoners specifically sought by the Taliban were involved in major attacks in Kabul, including the bombing at German Embassy in which dozens were killed.

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Amit Shah counters delimitation concerns, says southern states to gain Lok Sabha seats

Amit Shah assures Parliament that southern states will gain Lok Sabha seats after delimitation, countering opposition criticism during the women’s reservation debate.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday addressed concerns over the proposed delimitation exercise, asserting in the Lok Sabha that southern states will not lose representation but instead see an increase in their number of seats.

His remarks came during a heated debate linked to the implementation of women’s reservation, where opposition parties have raised fears that population-based delimitation could reduce the political weight of southern states.

Shah rejected these claims, calling them misleading, and said the proposed framework ensures fairness while expanding the overall strength of the Lok Sabha.

Seat count to rise with expansion of Lok Sabha

The government has indicated that the total number of Lok Sabha seats could increase significantly as part of the delimitation process. In this expanded House, the combined representation of southern states is expected to rise from 129 seats at present to around 195 seats.

Shah emphasised that no state will lose seats in absolute terms, and the exercise is designed to reflect population changes while maintaining balance across regions.

State-wise projections shared in Parliament

During his address, Shah also provided indicative figures for individual southern states, suggesting notable increases in representation. According to the projections:

  • Tamil Nadu could see its seats rise substantially
  • Kerala, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh are also expected to gain additional seats
  • Karnataka’s representation may increase as well

These figures were presented to counter the argument that delimitation would disproportionately favour northern states.

Political debate intensifies over linkage with women’s quota

The delimitation exercise has been closely linked to the rollout of women’s reservation, which proposes one-third seats for women in Parliament and state assemblies.

Opposition leaders have questioned this linkage, arguing that tying reservation to delimitation could delay its implementation and raise federal concerns. Some leaders have also warned that the move could impact national unity if apprehensions among states are not addressed.

The government, however, maintains that the reforms are necessary to ensure equitable representation and to align the electoral system with demographic realities.

Centre dismisses ‘false narrative’ on southern states

Shah reiterated that concerns about southern states losing influence are unfounded. He said the delimitation process will increase representation across regions and described the criticism as a “false narrative” aimed at creating confusion.

The issue is expected to remain a key flashpoint as Parliament continues discussions on the women’s reservation framework and related legislative changes.

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PM Modi assures no discrimination in women’s quota, delimitation debate intensifies in Parliament

PM Narendra Modi has assured that women’s reservation will be implemented without discrimination, amid a heated debate over delimitation in Parliament.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that there will be no discrimination in the implementation of women’s reservation, as Parliament witnessed a sharp debate over the proposed linkage between the quota and delimitation exercise.

During the ongoing special session, the government reiterated its commitment to ensuring fair representation while addressing concerns raised by opposition parties regarding the timing and structure of the legislation.

The proposed framework aims to reserve 33 percent of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. However, its implementation is tied to a fresh delimitation exercise, which is expected after the next census.

Opposition questions timing and intent

Opposition leaders have raised concerns that linking the women’s quota to delimitation could delay its implementation. They argue that the process of redrawing constituencies may push the actual rollout further into the future.

The issue has triggered a broader political confrontation, with multiple parties questioning whether the move could alter representation across states.

Some critics have also alleged that the delimitation exercise could disproportionately benefit certain regions based on population, a charge the government has rejected.

Government reiterates commitment to fair implementation

Responding to these concerns, the Centre has maintained that the reforms are necessary to ensure accurate and updated representation based on population data.

Leaders from the ruling side have repeatedly emphasized that the process will be carried out transparently and without bias. The assurance that there will be “no discrimination” is aimed at addressing fears among states and opposition parties.

The debate marks a key moment in Parliament, with both sides engaging in intense exchanges over one of the most significant electoral reforms in recent years.

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Give all tickets to Muslim women, Amit Shah says, attacking Akhilesh Yadav on sub-quota demand

A sharp exchange between Amit Shah and Akhilesh Yadav in Parliament over sub-quota for Muslim women highlights key divisions on women’s reservation implementation.

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A heated exchange broke out in Parliament during discussions on the women’s reservation framework, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav locking horns over the demand for a sub-quota for Muslim women.

The debate unfolded as the government pushed forward key legislative measures to implement 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

Akhilesh Yadav argued that the proposed reservation must ensure representation for women from marginalised communities, including Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Muslim women. He said that without such provisions, large sections could remain excluded from political participation.

He also questioned the timing of the bill, alleging that the Centre was avoiding a caste census. According to him, a census would lead to renewed demands for caste-based reservations, which the government is reluctant to address.

Government rejects religion-based quota

Responding to the demand, Amit Shah made it clear that reservation based on religion is not permitted under the Constitution.

He stated that any proposal to provide quota to Muslims on religious grounds would be unconstitutional, firmly rejecting the idea of a separate sub-quota for Muslim women within the broader reservation framework.

The government has maintained that the existing framework already includes provisions for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) women within the overall reservation structure.

Wider political divide over implementation

The issue of sub-categorisation within the women’s quota has emerged as a major flashpoint, even as most opposition parties broadly support the idea of women’s reservation.

Samajwadi Party leaders reiterated that their support for the bill depends on inclusion of OBC and minority women, while the government continues to defend its constitutional position.

The debate is part of a broader discussion during the special Parliament session, where multiple bills linked to delimitation and implementation of the women’s quota are being taken up.

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