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What Modi govt was hiding: Unemployment highest in 45 years; but more reports pending

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Unemployment

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The country’s unemployment rate stood at a 45-year high of 6.1% last year (2017-18) according to the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO) periodic labour force survey (PLFS) reported by Business Standard (BS).

This is the data which Prime Minister Narendra Modi government has withheld, prompting the two independent members of National Statistical Commission (NSC) – acting chairman PC Mohanan and member JV Meenakshi – to resign.

The government merely expressed surprise, saying the two had not raised their concerns at any of the meetings, and added that the report was being processed and will be released thereafter. It also said there were some aspects missing in the report, inviting the further criticism that a minister and his bureaucrats cannot be better judges of the report than the experts specially entrusted the task.

Already under fire for growing joblessness, it was clear that Modi government was reluctant to release the report with 2019 Lok Sabha election due in just a couple of months.

But apart from the job front, there is a whole range of other government reports and statistics that is usually updated periodically, which Modi government has not made public for years: data on crime, farmer suicides, caste and agricultural wages, found an IndiaSpend research. More on that below; first, let’s look at the NSSO survey findings.

This is the first survey on employment by a government agency after PM Modi announced demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes in November 2016. The PLFS is the first annual household survey of the NSSO. Data was collected between July 2017 and June 2018.

Documents reviewed by the Business Standard showed that joblessness – unemployment rate –was at its highest since the 1972-73 period, from when the employment data is comparable.

In comparison, the unemployment rate stood at 2.2% in 2011-12, during the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) second term, according to the survey.

The report showed that the unemployment rate among the youth was at a higher level compared to previous years and “much higher compared to that in the overall population”.

The rate of unemployment among men in rural areas between the ages of 15 and 29 years jumped to 17.4 percent in 2017-18 compared to 5 percent in 2011-12. The unemployment rate among women in rural areas stood at 13.6 percent in 2017-18 compared to 4.8 percent in 2011-12, according to the survey.

Unemployment among youth in urban areas was higher than in rural areas – 18.7 percent for men and 27.2 percent for women in 2017-18.

The same was true for the educated. More among the educated were jobless in 2017-18 than they were in 2004-05. For educated women in rural areas, unemployment was at 17.3 percent in 2017-18 compared to 9.7 percent-15.2 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12. For educated men in rural areas, the unemployment rose to 10.5 percent in 2017-18 compared to 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12.

The labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of population working or seeking jobs, declined from 39.5 percent in 2011-12 to 36.9 percent in 2017-18. The labour force participation has been declining since 2004-05. The dip was at a higher pace in 2017-18 compared to 2011-12, but at a lower speed than what was witnessed in 2009-10.

Earlier, surveys conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said that 1.1 core jobs were lost last year.

India’s economy has been expanding by 7 per cent plus annually — the fastest pace among major economies — but the uneven growth has meant there are not enough jobs created for millions of young Indians entering the workforce each year. This has put pressure on Modi as he faces general elections in May.

The Modi government’s penchant to present a rosy picture of national situation extends to concealing the ugly reality in many key areas.

 

Withholding data is Harmful to the Country in many ways

Lack of data prevents central and state governments from making informed decisions, Jayati Ghosh, a development economist and professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University was quoted as saying by IndiaSpend. Citizens who need to plan for their savings, investments and other issues are similarly affected, she said.

It creates economic opacity that prevents businesses and investors from making good decisions, said IndaSpend quoting Sabina Dewan, president and executive director of JustJobs Network, a research organisation focussed on strategies for job creation & workforce development.

Dewan said it also prevents NGOs and other development-oriented organisations from doing their work in an evidence-based manner.

“How are we to hold government accountable if they control and censure information that should be publicly accessible? We risk going down a very slippery slope if government withholds such data that should help in determining the policies that will actually help address the jobs crisis,” she told IndiaSpend.

“The Indian government’s withholding of the National Sample Survey employment/ unemployment report, which is expected to reflect job losses, undermines the ability of the electorate to make informed decisions,” said Dewan, adding, “A functional democracy is premised on an informed electorate.”

“All surveys should be put into the public domain so that researchers and analysts can examine and critique the data quality and also generate additional analyses that can serve the policy community,” Purnima Menon, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told IndiaSpend. The National Family Health Survey and the National Sample Survey, for instance, can be downloaded directly from the websites, she said. “It’s fantastic to see the various data and research outputs generated from these,” she added.

Citizens deserve to know whether major economic reforms such as demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax have had an impact on employment, Dewan added.

“At the very least, the public, experts and even other policymakers that can use this information to make informed decisions, deserve an explanation,” Dewan added.

 

Modi government has kept the country in the dark about several important indicators that are essential for policy making and governance.

Recently, there have also been concerns raised over data going missing from the websites of centrally-sponsored schemes. For example, several sets of data were removed from the Swachh Bharat-Gramin website, including data on expenditure, conversion of insanitary toilets which foster manual scavenging, and several details of toilet construction, as IndiaSpend reported on October 6, 2018.

 

Missing Statistics – A Non-Exhaustive List
Report Ministry/Department Last submitted
NSSO Annual Employment-Unemployment Report Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 2011-12
Socio-Economic Caste Census (data for OBCs was supposed to be released by 2015-16) Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner 2011-12
Rapid Survey of Children Ministry of Women and Child Development 2013-14
Foreign Direct Investment statistics Ministry of Commerce/DIPP Jun-18
Crime in India National Crime Records Bureau 2016
Prison Statistics of India National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Accidents and Suicides data National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Agricultural Wages Data Ministry of Agriculture/ Directorate of Economics and Statistics 2015-16

Source: IndiaSpend research

 

The accidents and suicides report, which provides information on farmer suicides and is brought out by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), has not been released for four years now.

Data on foreign direct investment, brought out every quarter by the department of industrial policy and production (DIPP), have not been released since June 2018, despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) providing it with regular inputs, according to this Business Today report published on January 29, 2019.

When the central government released the socio-economic profile of the population generated through the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) in 2015, it withheld data on caste despite demands from opposition parties and ministers within the government, a report in The Economic Times said in September 2018.

The report of a Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey–started towards the end of 2016 to create comprehensive nutritional profiles of preschoolers (0-4 years), school-age children (5-14 years) and adolescents (15-19 years)–has been ready but not released.

The report would help reorient India’s nutrition policy and serve as a baseline to evaluate the progress of recently launched initiatives such as the Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram (‘national adolescent health programme’), Rashtriya Bal Swasthya Karyakram (‘national child health programme’) and the National Iron-Plus Initiative, the IndiaSpend research said.

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Jammu & Kashmir: 5 soldiers killed after Army vehicle plunges into gorge in Poonch

“Today at around 17:40 hrs (5.40 pm), an Army vehicle of 11 Maratha Light Infantry, which was on its way from from Nilam headquarters to Balnoi Ghora Post along the LoC, met with an accident near Ghora Post,” said officials.

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Five soldiers lost their lives and several others were injured when an Army vehicle veered off the road and fell into a deep gorge in the Balnoi area of Mendhar, Poonch district, Jammu and Kashmir, on Tuesday, according to officials.

The incident occurred as the vehicle, part of the 11 Madras Light Infantry (11 MLI), was traveling from Nilam Headquarters to Balnoi Ghora Post. Reports indicate that the vehicle plunged approximately 350 feet into a steep gorge near its destination.

Upon learning of the accident, the Quick Reaction Team from 11 MLI rapidly mobilized to the scene to initiate rescue operations. The injured personnel received immediate medical attention, and efforts are currently underway to evacuate them for further treatment.

In a message on X, the White Knight Corps expressed their deep condolences for the tragic loss of five courageous soldiers, stating, “All ranks of #WhiteKnightCorps extend their deepest condolences on the tragic loss of five brave soldiers in a vehicle accident during operational duty in the #Poonch sector. Rescue operations are ongoing, and the injured personnel are receiving medical care.”

“Today at around 17:40 hrs (5.40 pm), an Army vehicle of 11 Maratha Light Infantry, which was on its way from from Nilam headquarters to Balnoi Ghora Post along the LoC, met with an accident near Ghora Post,” said officials.

This incident follows a similar accident last month, where one Army personnel died and another was injured when their vehicle skidded off the road and fell into a gorge in Rajouri district, Jammu and Kashmir. This crash, which occurred on November 4 near Badog village in Kalakote, resulted in Naik Badri Lal and Sepoy Jai Prakash suffering critical injuries; Lal ultimately succumbed to his injuries while in treatment.

On November 2, another tragedy struck when a vehicle skidded off a hilly road in Reasi district, claiming the lives of a woman and her 10-month-old son, while three others sustained serious injuries.

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Over 350 Himachal Pradesh roads shut amid snowfall, 4 dead

Meanwhile, post-monsoon rainfall from October 1 to December 24 has shown a deficit of 92% of the normal level of 70.4 mm.

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In Himachal Pradesh, a significant snowfall in the past 24 hours has resulted in four fatalities and the shutdown of approximately 700 electric transformers along with over 350 roads, including three national highways. This has left around 500 vehicles stranded, among which are more than 300 buses.

The snowfall, which began yesterday, has been recorded in various districts such as Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, as well as the higher elevations of Shimla, Kullu, Mandi, Chamba, and Sirmaur.

On a positive note, the situation has attracted a large number of tourists heading to Shimla and nearby areas in hopes of enjoying a white Christmas. According to MK Seth, president of the Shimla Hotel and Tourism Stakeholders’ Association, hotel occupancy in the historic town has exceeded 70%, 30% higher than usual.

Tragically, four individuals lost their lives in accidents over the last day, with several others injured due to vehicles skidding in hazardous conditions. Key national highways connecting Attari to Leh, Sanj to Aut in Kullu, and Khab Sangam in Kinnaur to Gramphoo in Lahaul and Spiti are currently blocked.

Among the affected areas, Shimla has the highest number of closed roads, totaling 89, followed by Kinnaur with 44 and Mandi with 25. The State Emergency Operation Centre reported that 683 transformers are inactive, leaving some regions without electricity.

Authorities have urged tourists to follow the advice of district officials and police, heed local guidance, and avoid driving on snowy roads. Khadrala experienced the highest snowfall, receiving 24 cm, followed by Sangla with 16.5 cm, and Shillaro at 15.3 cm. Other areas such as Chopal and Jubbal recorded 15 cm each, while Kalpa received 13.7 cm, Nichar 10 cm, Shimla 7 cm, Pooh 6 cm, and Jot 5 cm.

Manali and Dalhousie suburbs also saw snowfall since Monday, with light rain experienced in parts of the mid and lower hills. An intense cold wave is affecting the lower hills of Mandi, while cold conditions are noted in Una and Chamba.

The Meteorological Office reported dense, moderate, and shallow fog in Bilaspur, Sundernagar, and Mandi. An ‘orange’ warning has been issued for severe cold in Bilaspur, Una, Hamirpur, and Mandi, and a ‘yellow’ warning for dense fog in areas around the Bhakra dam reservoir and Balh Valley in Mandi until Thursday.

The coldest recorded temperature was in Kukumseri, Lahaul and Spiti, at minus 6.9 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, post-monsoon rainfall from October 1 to December 24 has shown a deficit of 92% of the normal level of 70.4 mm.

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP 4 revoked in capital, NCR as air quality improves

The GRAP 4 measures were implemented in Delhi after the air quality index (AQI) hit alarming levels on 16th December 2024

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP 4 revoked in capital, NCR as air quality improves

The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) today revoked Stage 4 of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). Nonetheless, measures under stages 1, 2, and 3 will remain in force to manage pollution levels. The GRAP 4 measures have been in effect in the entire NCR since December 16 after deterioration in air quality. 

This move follows after the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) reported an Air Quality Index (AQI) of 401 at 8 AM. The AQI on Monday fell into the severe category, measuring 403 at 7 am. Reportedly, AQI in several areas of the national capital was also recorded as ‘severe.’

Reports said, Anand Vihar recorded an AQI at 439, 456 at Ashok Vihar, 473 at Bawana, 406 at CRRI Mathura Road and 430 at Narela. Notably, an AQI between 0-50 is considered good, 51-100 is satisfactory, 101-200 is moderate, 201-300 is poor, 301-400 is very poor, and 401-500 is severe.

The GRAP 4 measures were implemented in Delhi after the air quality index (AQI) hit alarming levels on 16th December 2024. The Air Quality Index breached the 350 mark during the day, prompting the GRAP Sub-Committee to implement Stage-III measures. On the same day, by 10 PM, the AQI soared to 401, surpassing the severe plus category threshold. According to the Supreme Court instructions, Stage-IV measures were immediately introduced to tackle the crisis.

The apex court had earlier mandated precautionary measures, requiring Stage-III actions for AQI above 350 and Stage-IV for AQI exceeding 400. These directions were reiterated on 5th, 12th, and 19th December 2024, underlining the urgency to address Delhi’s air pollution.

As Delhi continues to battle hazardous air quality, the intensified measures under GRAP Stages I, II, and III will focus on curbing pollution sources and improving monitoring. Furthermore, residents are urged to remain cautious and adhere to guidelines issued by the authorities to mitigate the impact of air pollution on health and daily life.

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