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What Modi govt was hiding: Unemployment highest in 45 years; but more reports pending

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Unemployment

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The country’s unemployment rate stood at a 45-year high of 6.1% last year (2017-18) according to the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO) periodic labour force survey (PLFS) reported by Business Standard (BS).

This is the data which Prime Minister Narendra Modi government has withheld, prompting the two independent members of National Statistical Commission (NSC) – acting chairman PC Mohanan and member JV Meenakshi – to resign.

The government merely expressed surprise, saying the two had not raised their concerns at any of the meetings, and added that the report was being processed and will be released thereafter. It also said there were some aspects missing in the report, inviting the further criticism that a minister and his bureaucrats cannot be better judges of the report than the experts specially entrusted the task.

Already under fire for growing joblessness, it was clear that Modi government was reluctant to release the report with 2019 Lok Sabha election due in just a couple of months.

But apart from the job front, there is a whole range of other government reports and statistics that is usually updated periodically, which Modi government has not made public for years: data on crime, farmer suicides, caste and agricultural wages, found an IndiaSpend research. More on that below; first, let’s look at the NSSO survey findings.

This is the first survey on employment by a government agency after PM Modi announced demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes in November 2016. The PLFS is the first annual household survey of the NSSO. Data was collected between July 2017 and June 2018.

Documents reviewed by the Business Standard showed that joblessness – unemployment rate –was at its highest since the 1972-73 period, from when the employment data is comparable.

In comparison, the unemployment rate stood at 2.2% in 2011-12, during the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) second term, according to the survey.

The report showed that the unemployment rate among the youth was at a higher level compared to previous years and “much higher compared to that in the overall population”.

The rate of unemployment among men in rural areas between the ages of 15 and 29 years jumped to 17.4 percent in 2017-18 compared to 5 percent in 2011-12. The unemployment rate among women in rural areas stood at 13.6 percent in 2017-18 compared to 4.8 percent in 2011-12, according to the survey.

Unemployment among youth in urban areas was higher than in rural areas – 18.7 percent for men and 27.2 percent for women in 2017-18.

The same was true for the educated. More among the educated were jobless in 2017-18 than they were in 2004-05. For educated women in rural areas, unemployment was at 17.3 percent in 2017-18 compared to 9.7 percent-15.2 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12. For educated men in rural areas, the unemployment rose to 10.5 percent in 2017-18 compared to 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12.

The labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of population working or seeking jobs, declined from 39.5 percent in 2011-12 to 36.9 percent in 2017-18. The labour force participation has been declining since 2004-05. The dip was at a higher pace in 2017-18 compared to 2011-12, but at a lower speed than what was witnessed in 2009-10.

Earlier, surveys conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said that 1.1 core jobs were lost last year.

India’s economy has been expanding by 7 per cent plus annually — the fastest pace among major economies — but the uneven growth has meant there are not enough jobs created for millions of young Indians entering the workforce each year. This has put pressure on Modi as he faces general elections in May.

The Modi government’s penchant to present a rosy picture of national situation extends to concealing the ugly reality in many key areas.

 

Withholding data is Harmful to the Country in many ways

Lack of data prevents central and state governments from making informed decisions, Jayati Ghosh, a development economist and professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University was quoted as saying by IndiaSpend. Citizens who need to plan for their savings, investments and other issues are similarly affected, she said.

It creates economic opacity that prevents businesses and investors from making good decisions, said IndaSpend quoting Sabina Dewan, president and executive director of JustJobs Network, a research organisation focussed on strategies for job creation & workforce development.

Dewan said it also prevents NGOs and other development-oriented organisations from doing their work in an evidence-based manner.

“How are we to hold government accountable if they control and censure information that should be publicly accessible? We risk going down a very slippery slope if government withholds such data that should help in determining the policies that will actually help address the jobs crisis,” she told IndiaSpend.

“The Indian government’s withholding of the National Sample Survey employment/ unemployment report, which is expected to reflect job losses, undermines the ability of the electorate to make informed decisions,” said Dewan, adding, “A functional democracy is premised on an informed electorate.”

“All surveys should be put into the public domain so that researchers and analysts can examine and critique the data quality and also generate additional analyses that can serve the policy community,” Purnima Menon, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told IndiaSpend. The National Family Health Survey and the National Sample Survey, for instance, can be downloaded directly from the websites, she said. “It’s fantastic to see the various data and research outputs generated from these,” she added.

Citizens deserve to know whether major economic reforms such as demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax have had an impact on employment, Dewan added.

“At the very least, the public, experts and even other policymakers that can use this information to make informed decisions, deserve an explanation,” Dewan added.

 

Modi government has kept the country in the dark about several important indicators that are essential for policy making and governance.

Recently, there have also been concerns raised over data going missing from the websites of centrally-sponsored schemes. For example, several sets of data were removed from the Swachh Bharat-Gramin website, including data on expenditure, conversion of insanitary toilets which foster manual scavenging, and several details of toilet construction, as IndiaSpend reported on October 6, 2018.

 

Missing Statistics – A Non-Exhaustive List
Report Ministry/Department Last submitted
NSSO Annual Employment-Unemployment Report Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 2011-12
Socio-Economic Caste Census (data for OBCs was supposed to be released by 2015-16) Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner 2011-12
Rapid Survey of Children Ministry of Women and Child Development 2013-14
Foreign Direct Investment statistics Ministry of Commerce/DIPP Jun-18
Crime in India National Crime Records Bureau 2016
Prison Statistics of India National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Accidents and Suicides data National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Agricultural Wages Data Ministry of Agriculture/ Directorate of Economics and Statistics 2015-16

Source: IndiaSpend research

 

The accidents and suicides report, which provides information on farmer suicides and is brought out by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), has not been released for four years now.

Data on foreign direct investment, brought out every quarter by the department of industrial policy and production (DIPP), have not been released since June 2018, despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) providing it with regular inputs, according to this Business Today report published on January 29, 2019.

When the central government released the socio-economic profile of the population generated through the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) in 2015, it withheld data on caste despite demands from opposition parties and ministers within the government, a report in The Economic Times said in September 2018.

The report of a Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey–started towards the end of 2016 to create comprehensive nutritional profiles of preschoolers (0-4 years), school-age children (5-14 years) and adolescents (15-19 years)–has been ready but not released.

The report would help reorient India’s nutrition policy and serve as a baseline to evaluate the progress of recently launched initiatives such as the Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram (‘national adolescent health programme’), Rashtriya Bal Swasthya Karyakram (‘national child health programme’) and the National Iron-Plus Initiative, the IndiaSpend research said.

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AAP targets Delhi LG with Ghajini dig over pollution row, BJP hits back

AAP’s ‘Ghajini’ dig at Delhi LG over air pollution has drawn a sharp response from the BJP, escalating the political blame game as the capital’s AQI remains poor.

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The political sparring over Delhi’s air pollution intensified after the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) took a swipe at Lieutenant Governor Vinai Kumar Saxena using a film reference, prompting a sharp rebuttal from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The exchange comes at a time when air quality in the national capital has shown marginal improvement but continues to remain in the “poor” category.

The trigger for the latest round of accusations was a letter written by LG Saxena to AAP’s national convener and former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. In the letter, the LG claimed that when he had raised concerns about pollution during Kejriwal’s tenure as chief minister, the issue was played down. According to Saxena, Kejriwal had remarked that pollution becomes a topic of discussion only for a few days every year before fading from public attention.

AAP’s ‘Ghajini’ poster attack

Reacting to the letter, AAP accused the LG of shifting responsibility instead of addressing the ongoing pollution crisis. The party shared an edited image on X, portraying Saxena as the lead character from the film Ghajini, a role associated with short-term memory loss.

In the post, AAP alleged that the LG was ignoring the fact that the BJP is currently in power in Delhi and therefore accountable for managing the pollution situation. The caption accompanying the image read, “L – Low Quality; G – Ghajini,” while the poster claimed that the LG had “become Ghajini.” The visual also carried text suggesting blame being repeatedly placed on Arvind Kejriwal for rising AQI levels.

BJP’s response and counter-accusation

The BJP responded strongly to AAP’s jibe, asserting that while the present government is addressing pollution, responsibility for long-term damage cannot be ignored. Speaking to media, Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva said the party is answerable for current conditions but questioned whether it should also be held accountable for what he termed the failures of the previous AAP government over the past 12 years.

Sachdeva echoed the claims mentioned in the LG’s letter, stating that concerns over pollution were earlier dismissed as seasonal issues. He further argued that air pollution is a year-round problem and accused AAP of attempting to shift the entire burden onto a government that has been in office for only the past several months.

Referring to the ‘Ghajini’ poster, the BJP leader said that if forgetfulness was the theme, AAP should have used Kejriwal’s image instead, alleging that the former chief minister had distanced himself from his responsibilities after electoral setbacks. He added that the current administration would require time to correct what he described as mistakes made during the previous government’s tenure.

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Traffic slows in Himachal Pradesh as year-end tourist rush chokes roads to Shimla, Manali

Heavy tourist inflow during the Christmas-New Year period has slowed traffic in Himachal Pradesh, with Shimla, Manali and Dharamshala witnessing long vehicle queues.

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Shimla traffic

Traffic movement across key hill destinations in Himachal Pradesh slowed to a crawl as a heavy influx of tourists marked the year-end holiday season. Long weekends around Christmas and New Year prompted travellers, particularly from Delhi-NCR, to head towards Shimla, Manali and Dharamshala, leading to long queues of vehicles on mountain roads.

A major attraction this season is the nine-day Winter Carnival being held at the historic Ridge Ground in Shimla. The event has drawn visitors from different parts of the country, with many attending it for the first time. Tourists described the carnival as lively and enjoyable, especially for families visiting during Christmas week.

Some visitors said the festive atmosphere exceeded their expectations, while others felt the absence of snowfall slightly dampened the experience. Tourists from states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Mizoram shared that snowfall during Christmas would have added to the overall charm of the hill station.

Heavy inflow of vehicles, police step up arrangements

Apart from Shimla, popular destinations such as Kullu-Manali and Dharamshala are also witnessing a steady rise in tourist numbers. Gramphu has emerged as the only snow spot currently accessible to non-4×4 vehicles, adding to the pressure on limited routes.

Police officials estimate that between 8,000 and 10,000 vehicles are entering Shimla daily during the Christmas-to-New Year period. Over the next seven days, more than three lakh tourists are expected to visit the state capital alone.

To manage traffic and ensure safety, around 400 police personnel have been deployed across sensitive and high-footfall areas. The Shimla police administration has appealed to tourists to follow traffic rules and cooperate with authorities. Officials said preparations have been made for crowd management, security checks and traffic regulation at major junctions, as congestion continues to build across the hill town.

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BJP gets its first mayor in Kerala as VV Rajesh takes charge in Thiruvananthapuram

The BJP has created history in Kerala after VV Rajesh was sworn in as Thiruvananthapuram’s first mayor from the party, ending decades of CPM control over the civic body.

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BJP

The BJP on Friday marked a historic political moment in Kerala after VV Rajesh was sworn in as the mayor of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation. This is the first time the party has secured the mayor’s post in the state capital, signalling a significant shift in Kerala’s urban political landscape.

Rajesh’s election follows the party’s unexpected performance in the municipal elections held earlier this month, where the BJP emerged as the single-largest party by winning 50 of the 101 seats in the civic body.

Rajesh promises inclusive development across all wards

After taking oath, VV Rajesh said the focus of the new leadership would be on collective growth and inclusive governance. He stated that development work would be carried out across all 101 wards, with the aim of transforming Thiruvananthapuram into a developed city.

Rajesh secured 51 votes in the mayoral election conducted in the 100-member House, crossing the halfway mark. The CPM candidate RP Shivaji received 29 votes, while the Congress-led UDF nominee KS Sabarinathan got 19 votes. One independent councillor abstained, while support from another independent councillor proved crucial for the BJP’s victory.

Breakthrough comes ahead of key state election

The development comes less than six months before a major election in Kerala, a state where the BJP has historically struggled. The party has never formed a government in the state and has had limited legislative presence in the past.

The mayoral win also ends decades of control by the CPM over the Thiruvananthapuram civic body. The state capital is also a Lok Sabha constituency currently represented by Congress leader Shashi Tharoor.

BJP leadership targets governance overhaul

Following the swearing-in ceremony, Kerala BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar criticised the previous administration, alleging long-standing governance failures and corruption in the civic body. He said basic civic issues such as drainage, water supply and solid waste management had been neglected for years, and asserted that the new administration would begin work immediately to improve the city’s infrastructure.

The party has set a target of making Thiruvananthapuram one of the top cities in the country, according to Chandrasekhar.

Internal debate preceded mayoral choice

The selection of VV Rajesh as mayor followed internal discussions within the BJP. The party was reportedly divided between Rajesh and former Director General of Police R Sreelekha before consensus emerged in Rajesh’s favour. Sreelekha, who won from the Sasthamangalam ward, is known for her earlier role handling economic offence cases.

Union minister Suresh Gopi and Rajeev Chandrasekhar were present during Rajesh’s oath-taking ceremony.

Wider impact on Kerala’s political landscape

Overall results in the local body elections have posed challenges for the ruling Left Democratic Front, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front secured control of four out of six municipal bodies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi later described the BJP’s Thiruvananthapuram win as a “watershed moment,” crediting party workers for the breakthrough.

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