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What Modi govt was hiding: Unemployment highest in 45 years; but more reports pending

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Unemployment

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The country’s unemployment rate stood at a 45-year high of 6.1% last year (2017-18) according to the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO) periodic labour force survey (PLFS) reported by Business Standard (BS).

This is the data which Prime Minister Narendra Modi government has withheld, prompting the two independent members of National Statistical Commission (NSC) – acting chairman PC Mohanan and member JV Meenakshi – to resign.

The government merely expressed surprise, saying the two had not raised their concerns at any of the meetings, and added that the report was being processed and will be released thereafter. It also said there were some aspects missing in the report, inviting the further criticism that a minister and his bureaucrats cannot be better judges of the report than the experts specially entrusted the task.

Already under fire for growing joblessness, it was clear that Modi government was reluctant to release the report with 2019 Lok Sabha election due in just a couple of months.

But apart from the job front, there is a whole range of other government reports and statistics that is usually updated periodically, which Modi government has not made public for years: data on crime, farmer suicides, caste and agricultural wages, found an IndiaSpend research. More on that below; first, let’s look at the NSSO survey findings.

This is the first survey on employment by a government agency after PM Modi announced demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes in November 2016. The PLFS is the first annual household survey of the NSSO. Data was collected between July 2017 and June 2018.

Documents reviewed by the Business Standard showed that joblessness – unemployment rate –was at its highest since the 1972-73 period, from when the employment data is comparable.

In comparison, the unemployment rate stood at 2.2% in 2011-12, during the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) second term, according to the survey.

The report showed that the unemployment rate among the youth was at a higher level compared to previous years and “much higher compared to that in the overall population”.

The rate of unemployment among men in rural areas between the ages of 15 and 29 years jumped to 17.4 percent in 2017-18 compared to 5 percent in 2011-12. The unemployment rate among women in rural areas stood at 13.6 percent in 2017-18 compared to 4.8 percent in 2011-12, according to the survey.

Unemployment among youth in urban areas was higher than in rural areas – 18.7 percent for men and 27.2 percent for women in 2017-18.

The same was true for the educated. More among the educated were jobless in 2017-18 than they were in 2004-05. For educated women in rural areas, unemployment was at 17.3 percent in 2017-18 compared to 9.7 percent-15.2 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12. For educated men in rural areas, the unemployment rose to 10.5 percent in 2017-18 compared to 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12.

The labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of population working or seeking jobs, declined from 39.5 percent in 2011-12 to 36.9 percent in 2017-18. The labour force participation has been declining since 2004-05. The dip was at a higher pace in 2017-18 compared to 2011-12, but at a lower speed than what was witnessed in 2009-10.

Earlier, surveys conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said that 1.1 core jobs were lost last year.

India’s economy has been expanding by 7 per cent plus annually — the fastest pace among major economies — but the uneven growth has meant there are not enough jobs created for millions of young Indians entering the workforce each year. This has put pressure on Modi as he faces general elections in May.

The Modi government’s penchant to present a rosy picture of national situation extends to concealing the ugly reality in many key areas.

 

Withholding data is Harmful to the Country in many ways

Lack of data prevents central and state governments from making informed decisions, Jayati Ghosh, a development economist and professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University was quoted as saying by IndiaSpend. Citizens who need to plan for their savings, investments and other issues are similarly affected, she said.

It creates economic opacity that prevents businesses and investors from making good decisions, said IndaSpend quoting Sabina Dewan, president and executive director of JustJobs Network, a research organisation focussed on strategies for job creation & workforce development.

Dewan said it also prevents NGOs and other development-oriented organisations from doing their work in an evidence-based manner.

“How are we to hold government accountable if they control and censure information that should be publicly accessible? We risk going down a very slippery slope if government withholds such data that should help in determining the policies that will actually help address the jobs crisis,” she told IndiaSpend.

“The Indian government’s withholding of the National Sample Survey employment/ unemployment report, which is expected to reflect job losses, undermines the ability of the electorate to make informed decisions,” said Dewan, adding, “A functional democracy is premised on an informed electorate.”

“All surveys should be put into the public domain so that researchers and analysts can examine and critique the data quality and also generate additional analyses that can serve the policy community,” Purnima Menon, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told IndiaSpend. The National Family Health Survey and the National Sample Survey, for instance, can be downloaded directly from the websites, she said. “It’s fantastic to see the various data and research outputs generated from these,” she added.

Citizens deserve to know whether major economic reforms such as demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax have had an impact on employment, Dewan added.

“At the very least, the public, experts and even other policymakers that can use this information to make informed decisions, deserve an explanation,” Dewan added.

 

Modi government has kept the country in the dark about several important indicators that are essential for policy making and governance.

Recently, there have also been concerns raised over data going missing from the websites of centrally-sponsored schemes. For example, several sets of data were removed from the Swachh Bharat-Gramin website, including data on expenditure, conversion of insanitary toilets which foster manual scavenging, and several details of toilet construction, as IndiaSpend reported on October 6, 2018.

 

Missing Statistics – A Non-Exhaustive List
Report Ministry/Department Last submitted
NSSO Annual Employment-Unemployment Report Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 2011-12
Socio-Economic Caste Census (data for OBCs was supposed to be released by 2015-16) Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner 2011-12
Rapid Survey of Children Ministry of Women and Child Development 2013-14
Foreign Direct Investment statistics Ministry of Commerce/DIPP Jun-18
Crime in India National Crime Records Bureau 2016
Prison Statistics of India National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Accidents and Suicides data National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Agricultural Wages Data Ministry of Agriculture/ Directorate of Economics and Statistics 2015-16

Source: IndiaSpend research

 

The accidents and suicides report, which provides information on farmer suicides and is brought out by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), has not been released for four years now.

Data on foreign direct investment, brought out every quarter by the department of industrial policy and production (DIPP), have not been released since June 2018, despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) providing it with regular inputs, according to this Business Today report published on January 29, 2019.

When the central government released the socio-economic profile of the population generated through the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) in 2015, it withheld data on caste despite demands from opposition parties and ministers within the government, a report in The Economic Times said in September 2018.

The report of a Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey–started towards the end of 2016 to create comprehensive nutritional profiles of preschoolers (0-4 years), school-age children (5-14 years) and adolescents (15-19 years)–has been ready but not released.

The report would help reorient India’s nutrition policy and serve as a baseline to evaluate the progress of recently launched initiatives such as the Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram (‘national adolescent health programme’), Rashtriya Bal Swasthya Karyakram (‘national child health programme’) and the National Iron-Plus Initiative, the IndiaSpend research said.

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Omar Abdullah distances INDIA bloc from Congress’s vote chori campaign

Omar Abdullah has clarified that the INDIA opposition bloc is not linked to the Congress’s ‘vote chori’ campaign, saying each party is free to set its own agenda.

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Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference leader Omar Abdullah has drawn a clear line between the INDIA opposition bloc and the Congress’s ongoing ‘vote chori’ campaign, stating that the alliance has no role in the issue being raised by the grand old party.

Speaking to the media, Abdullah said every political party within the alliance is free to decide its own priorities. He underlined that the Congress has chosen to focus on alleged irregularities linked to voter lists and electoral processes, while other parties may pursue different agendas.

According to Abdullah, the INDIA bloc as a collective is not associated with the ‘vote chori’ narrative. He added that no party within the alliance should dictate what issues another constituent should raise in public discourse.

The remarks came days after the Congress organised a large rally in the national capital to intensify its campaign. The party has alleged that the Election Commission is working in favour of the BJP to influence electoral outcomes. Both the poll body and the ruling party have rejected these claims.

INDIA bloc cohesion under scrutiny

Abdullah’s comments have gained significance as they follow his recent observation that the INDIA bloc is currently on “life support”. That remark, made during an interaction at a leadership summit in Delhi, triggered mixed reactions from alliance partners.

At the event, Abdullah had said the opposition grouping revives intermittently but struggles to maintain momentum, especially after electoral setbacks. He also pointed to the Bihar political developments, suggesting that decisions taken by the alliance may have contributed to Nitish Kumar returning to the NDA fold. He further cited the inability to accommodate the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Bihar seat-sharing talks as a missed opportunity.

Allies respond to Omar Abdullah’s remarks

Reactions from within the INDIA bloc reflected differing views on Abdullah’s assessment. RJD leader Manoj Jha termed the remarks “rushed” and said responsibility for strengthening the alliance lies with all constituents, including Abdullah himself.

CPI general secretary D Raja called for introspection among alliance partners, questioning the lack of coordination despite the stated objective of defeating the BJP and safeguarding democratic values.

Samajwadi Party MP Rajeev Rai disagreed with the “life support” analogy, saying electoral defeats are part of politics and should not demoralise opposition forces. He cautioned that internal pessimism only serves the BJP’s interests.

BJP targets opposition unity

The BJP seized on the comments to attack the opposition bloc’s unity. Senior leader Shahnawaz Hussain dismissed the INDIA alliance as defunct, claiming it lost relevance after the Lok Sabha elections and lacks leadership and a clear policy direction.

Abdullah’s latest clarification on the ‘vote chori’ campaign reinforces the visible differences within the opposition alliance, even as its constituents continue to debate strategy and coordination ahead of future political battles.

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Nitin Nabin terms BJP working president role a party blessing, thanks leadership

BJP national working president Nitin Nabin has termed his appointment a blessing of the party, thanking its leadership and pledging to work on the ideals of his late father.

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Nitin Nabin

Newly appointed BJP national working president Nitin Nabin on Monday described his elevation as a blessing bestowed by the party and expressed gratitude to its top leadership for placing faith in him.

Speaking to reporters in Patna after paying floral tributes to a statue of his late father, former BJP MLA Nabin Kishor Prasad Sinha, the Bihar minister said he would continue to work on the principles he inherited from his family and the organisation.

“I have always worked on the ideas of my father, who treated the party like his mother and put the nation above everything else. I believe that is why the party has given me this responsibility,” Nabin said. He later visited Mahavir Mandir in the city to offer prayers.

Gratitude to Prime Minister, focus on Antyodaya

Thanking Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his guidance, Nabin said development under the current leadership has reached towns and villages across the country. He added that the party has expanded its presence and emerged as a platform representing the poor.

According to Nabin, no section of society has remained untouched by the welfare initiatives of the NDA government. He said the idea of Antyodaya has now reached every corner of India, recalling the contributions of Deendayal Upadhyaya, Syama Prasad Mookerjee and Atal Bihari Vajpayee in shaping the philosophy.

On elections and party organisation

Responding to questions on upcoming elections, including in West Bengal, Nabin said BJP workers remain active at all times. He remarked that unlike other parties, BJP cadres work round the year and remain prepared in every state.

At 45, Nabin is a five-time MLA from the Bankipur assembly constituency and has served twice as a minister in the Bihar government. He comes from an RSS background and is currently part of the Nitish Kumar-led state cabinet.

A generational shift in the party

Nabin’s appointment as national working president on Sunday was seen as a significant organisational move. The position, though not mentioned in the party constitution, has earlier served as a transition role before elevation to the top post.

Prime Minister Modi publicly endorsed the decision, describing Nabin as a hardworking and grounded leader with strong organisational experience. Party leaders have projected the move as part of a generational shift, with Nabin expected to follow a trajectory similar to that of the current national president, who had earlier served as working president before taking charge of the organisation.

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BJP demands Sonia Gandhi’s apology over Congress rally slogan targeting PM Modi

A slogan raised against Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a Congress rally in Jaipur has sparked a political storm, with the BJP demanding an apology from Sonia Gandhi and other senior Congress leaders.

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A political controversy has erupted after a slogan referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “grave” was raised during a Congress rally in Jaipur, prompting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to demand an apology from senior Congress leaders, including Sonia Gandhi.

The slogan was raised at a ‘Vote Chor Gaddi Chhod’ rally held in Rajasthan’s capital, where Manju Lata Meena, Jaipur women’s Congress district president, led a group chanting the remark against the Prime Minister. The rally was organised to highlight the Opposition’s allegations of vote theft against the BJP.

When questioned later, Meena defended her statement, saying it reflected public anger over alleged electoral issues. She also accused the Prime Minister of diverting attention from concerns related to employment, youth, women and farmers.

BJP seeks apology from Congress leadership

The remarks triggered sharp reactions from the ruling party. BJP president and Union minister JP Nadda raised the issue in the Rajya Sabha, calling the slogan highly objectionable and accusing the Congress of revealing its mindset through such language. He demanded an apology from Sonia Gandhi, chairperson of the Congress Parliamentary Party, and Mallikarjun Kharge, the Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House.

Union minister Kiren Rijiju also criticised the slogan, saying political rivals are not enemies and such statements cross acceptable boundaries. Addressing a press conference, he urged Kharge and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi to apologise on the floor of both Houses of Parliament. Rijiju said it was unfortunate that Congress workers were using language that appeared to incite violence against a constitutional authority.

Congress response and allies’ reactions

Congress MP Manickam Tagore dismissed the BJP’s reaction, claiming that the rally had unsettled ruling party leaders. He said the response from BJP leaders showed they were rattled by the Opposition’s campaign.

However, some of Congress’s allies distanced themselves from the slogan. A Samajwadi Party MP said political differences should not translate into disrespectful language for those holding constitutional posts. A senior leader of the Nationalist Congress Party (SP) also termed the slogan inappropriate, stating that regardless of political disagreements, the Prime Minister’s position must be respected.

The episode has added to the ongoing war of words between the BJP and the Congress, with both sides trading accusations as Parliament’s Winter Session continues.

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