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What Modi govt was hiding: Unemployment highest in 45 years; but more reports pending

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The country’s unemployment rate stood at a 45-year high of 6.1% last year (2017-18) according to the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO) periodic labour force survey (PLFS) reported by Business Standard (BS).

This is the data which Prime Minister Narendra Modi government has withheld, prompting the two independent members of National Statistical Commission (NSC) – acting chairman PC Mohanan and member JV Meenakshi – to resign.

The government merely expressed surprise, saying the two had not raised their concerns at any of the meetings, and added that the report was being processed and will be released thereafter. It also said there were some aspects missing in the report, inviting the further criticism that a minister and his bureaucrats cannot be better judges of the report than the experts specially entrusted the task.

Already under fire for growing joblessness, it was clear that Modi government was reluctant to release the report with 2019 Lok Sabha election due in just a couple of months.

But apart from the job front, there is a whole range of other government reports and statistics that is usually updated periodically, which Modi government has not made public for years: data on crime, farmer suicides, caste and agricultural wages, found an IndiaSpend research. More on that below; first, let’s look at the NSSO survey findings.

This is the first survey on employment by a government agency after PM Modi announced demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes in November 2016. The PLFS is the first annual household survey of the NSSO. Data was collected between July 2017 and June 2018.

Documents reviewed by the Business Standard showed that joblessness – unemployment rate –was at its highest since the 1972-73 period, from when the employment data is comparable.

In comparison, the unemployment rate stood at 2.2% in 2011-12, during the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) second term, according to the survey.

The report showed that the unemployment rate among the youth was at a higher level compared to previous years and “much higher compared to that in the overall population”.

The rate of unemployment among men in rural areas between the ages of 15 and 29 years jumped to 17.4 percent in 2017-18 compared to 5 percent in 2011-12. The unemployment rate among women in rural areas stood at 13.6 percent in 2017-18 compared to 4.8 percent in 2011-12, according to the survey.

Unemployment among youth in urban areas was higher than in rural areas – 18.7 percent for men and 27.2 percent for women in 2017-18.

The same was true for the educated. More among the educated were jobless in 2017-18 than they were in 2004-05. For educated women in rural areas, unemployment was at 17.3 percent in 2017-18 compared to 9.7 percent-15.2 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12. For educated men in rural areas, the unemployment rose to 10.5 percent in 2017-18 compared to 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12.

The labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of population working or seeking jobs, declined from 39.5 percent in 2011-12 to 36.9 percent in 2017-18. The labour force participation has been declining since 2004-05. The dip was at a higher pace in 2017-18 compared to 2011-12, but at a lower speed than what was witnessed in 2009-10.

Earlier, surveys conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said that 1.1 core jobs were lost last year.

India’s economy has been expanding by 7 per cent plus annually — the fastest pace among major economies — but the uneven growth has meant there are not enough jobs created for millions of young Indians entering the workforce each year. This has put pressure on Modi as he faces general elections in May.

The Modi government’s penchant to present a rosy picture of national situation extends to concealing the ugly reality in many key areas.

 

Withholding data is Harmful to the Country in many ways

Lack of data prevents central and state governments from making informed decisions, Jayati Ghosh, a development economist and professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University was quoted as saying by IndiaSpend. Citizens who need to plan for their savings, investments and other issues are similarly affected, she said.

It creates economic opacity that prevents businesses and investors from making good decisions, said IndaSpend quoting Sabina Dewan, president and executive director of JustJobs Network, a research organisation focussed on strategies for job creation & workforce development.

Dewan said it also prevents NGOs and other development-oriented organisations from doing their work in an evidence-based manner.

“How are we to hold government accountable if they control and censure information that should be publicly accessible? We risk going down a very slippery slope if government withholds such data that should help in determining the policies that will actually help address the jobs crisis,” she told IndiaSpend.

“The Indian government’s withholding of the National Sample Survey employment/ unemployment report, which is expected to reflect job losses, undermines the ability of the electorate to make informed decisions,” said Dewan, adding, “A functional democracy is premised on an informed electorate.”

“All surveys should be put into the public domain so that researchers and analysts can examine and critique the data quality and also generate additional analyses that can serve the policy community,” Purnima Menon, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told IndiaSpend. The National Family Health Survey and the National Sample Survey, for instance, can be downloaded directly from the websites, she said. “It’s fantastic to see the various data and research outputs generated from these,” she added.

Citizens deserve to know whether major economic reforms such as demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax have had an impact on employment, Dewan added.

“At the very least, the public, experts and even other policymakers that can use this information to make informed decisions, deserve an explanation,” Dewan added.

 

Modi government has kept the country in the dark about several important indicators that are essential for policy making and governance.

Recently, there have also been concerns raised over data going missing from the websites of centrally-sponsored schemes. For example, several sets of data were removed from the Swachh Bharat-Gramin website, including data on expenditure, conversion of insanitary toilets which foster manual scavenging, and several details of toilet construction, as IndiaSpend reported on October 6, 2018.

 

Missing Statistics – A Non-Exhaustive List
Report Ministry/Department Last submitted
NSSO Annual Employment-Unemployment Report Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 2011-12
Socio-Economic Caste Census (data for OBCs was supposed to be released by 2015-16) Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner 2011-12
Rapid Survey of Children Ministry of Women and Child Development 2013-14
Foreign Direct Investment statistics Ministry of Commerce/DIPP Jun-18
Crime in India National Crime Records Bureau 2016
Prison Statistics of India National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Accidents and Suicides data National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Agricultural Wages Data Ministry of Agriculture/ Directorate of Economics and Statistics 2015-16

Source: IndiaSpend research

 

The accidents and suicides report, which provides information on farmer suicides and is brought out by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), has not been released for four years now.

Data on foreign direct investment, brought out every quarter by the department of industrial policy and production (DIPP), have not been released since June 2018, despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) providing it with regular inputs, according to this Business Today report published on January 29, 2019.

When the central government released the socio-economic profile of the population generated through the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) in 2015, it withheld data on caste despite demands from opposition parties and ministers within the government, a report in The Economic Times said in September 2018.

The report of a Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey–started towards the end of 2016 to create comprehensive nutritional profiles of preschoolers (0-4 years), school-age children (5-14 years) and adolescents (15-19 years)–has been ready but not released.

The report would help reorient India’s nutrition policy and serve as a baseline to evaluate the progress of recently launched initiatives such as the Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram (‘national adolescent health programme’), Rashtriya Bal Swasthya Karyakram (‘national child health programme’) and the National Iron-Plus Initiative, the IndiaSpend research said.

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PM Modi urges people to read Tirukkural on Thiruvalluvar Day

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thiruvalluvar Day appealed to people to read the Tirukkural, calling it a reflection of the humane and harmonious ideals of Tamil philosopher-poet Thiruvalluvar.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday urged people across the country to read the Tirukkural, highlighting its enduring relevance and the intellectual legacy of Tamil philosopher-poet Thiruvalluvar.

Marking Thiruvalluvar Day, which coincides with the Pongal celebrations every year, the prime minister paid tribute to the revered scholar, describing him as a symbol of harmony, compassion and Tamil cultural excellence.

In a message shared on social media platform X, Modi said Thiruvalluvar’s works and ideals continue to inspire countless people even today. He noted that the philosopher envisioned a society rooted in compassion and balance.

The prime minister encouraged citizens to engage with the Tirukkural, a classical Tamil text that deals with various aspects of human life, ethics and governance, calling it a window into the profound intellect of Thiruvalluvar.

Thiruvalluvar Day is observed annually to honour the philosopher-poet, whose literary contributions remain central to Tamil culture and thought.

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India News

BJP, Thackerays or Pawars: Maharashtra civic body poll results awaited today

Counting of votes for 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra, including the key BMC and Pune civic bodies, begins today, with BJP, Thackerays and Pawars awaiting crucial results.

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The political balance in Maharashtra’s urban centres will become clearer today as votes are counted for elections to 29 municipal corporations across the state. The results are keenly awaited amid high-stakes contests involving the BJP, the Thackeray cousins and the reunited Pawar factions.

Polling was held for 2,869 seats across 893 wards, with 3.48 crore eligible voters deciding the fate of 15,931 candidates. Counting is scheduled to begin at 10 am.

Mumbai and Pune in sharp focus

All eyes are on Mumbai, where the contest for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has drawn statewide attention. Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray joined hands after more than two decades in a bid to reclaim control of the country’s richest civic body.

The BMC, which has an annual budget of over Rs 74,400 crore, went to polls after a nine-year gap, following a four-year delay. A total of 1,700 candidates contested the 227 seats.

Exit polls suggest a strong performance by the BJP–Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) alliance in Mumbai. An aggregate of multiple surveys projects the ruling alliance ahead, with the Shiv Sena (UBT) and allies trailing, while the Congress is expected to secure a limited number of seats. Exit polls have also indicated possible voting consolidation among Maratha and Muslim voters behind the Thackeray-led alliance, while women and young voters may tilt towards the BJP.

The last BMC election in 2017 saw the undivided Shiv Sena retain control of the civic body it had dominated for decades.

In Pune, the spotlight is on the unusual alliance between rival NCP factions led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar. Exit polls indicate the BJP could emerge as the largest party in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), with both NCP factions and the Shiv Sena also expected to secure a share of seats.

Statewide counting underway

Apart from Mumbai and Pune, counting will take place in several other key municipal corporations, including Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nagpur, Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Mira-Bhayandar, Vasai-Virar, Solapur, Kolhapur, Amravati, Akola, Jalgaon, Malegaon, Latur, Dhule, Jalna, Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad, Nanded-Waghala, Chandrapur, Parbhani, Panvel, Bhiwandi-Nizampur, Ulhasnagar, Ahilyanagar and Ichalkaranji.

With major parties treating these civic polls as a referendum on their urban appeal ahead of future state and national elections, today’s results are expected to shape Maharashtra’s political narrative in the months to come.

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Supreme Court flags risk of lawlessness, pauses FIRs against ED officers in Bengal case

The Supreme Court paused FIRs against ED officers in the Bengal I-PAC raid case, warning that obstruction of central probes could lead to lawlessness and seeking responses from the Centre and state.

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The Supreme Court on Wednesday delivered a sharp rebuke to the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government, pausing FIRs lodged against officers of the Enforcement Directorate over searches linked to political consultancy I-PAC. The court said the case raises serious questions about interference in investigations and warned that failure to address them could lead to “lawlessness”.

A bench of Justice Prashant Mishra and Justice Vipul Pancholi sought replies from the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Department of Personnel and Training, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress government on the ED’s plea. The central agency has also sought the suspension of Bengal Director General of Police Rajeev Kumar and Kolkata Police Commissioner Manoj Kumar Verma, and a probe by the CBI. The matter will be heard next on February 3.

The ruling follows a standoff between the ED and the Bengal government after the agency conducted searches at premises linked to I-PAC, which manages election campaigns for the Trinamool Congress, in connection with a corruption case.

Court questions obstruction of central probes

Recording its prima facie view, the Supreme Court said the petition raised a “serious issue” concerning investigations by central agencies and possible obstruction by state authorities.

“There are larger questions which emerge and if not answered shall lead to lawlessness. If central agencies are working bona fide to probe a serious offence, a question arises: Can they be obstructed by party activities?” the bench observed.

Earlier in the day, the court also expressed disturbance over scenes of chaos in the Calcutta High Court during a hearing related to the same dispute.

ED alleges interference, seeks action against top cops

The Enforcement Directorate accused the West Bengal administration of interfering with its searches and investigation. Appearing for the agency, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta alleged that evidence was removed from the residence of an I-PAC co-founder and argued that such actions could encourage state police officers to aid and abet obstruction. He sought suspension of senior police officials.

Describing the disruption in the Calcutta High Court on January 9, Mehta called it “mobocracy”, saying a group of lawyers unconnected to the case disrupted proceedings, forcing an adjournment. The bench asked whether the high court had been turned into a protest site, to which Mehta responded that messages had circulated calling lawyers to gather at a specific time.

Banerjee’s counsel defends move, cites election confidentiality

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for Mamata Banerjee, questioned the timing of the ED’s presence in Bengal ahead of Assembly elections. He said the last development in the coal scam case dated back to February 2024 and argued that I-PAC handled election-related work under a formal contract with the Trinamool Congress.

According to Sibal, election data stored at the premises was confidential and critical to campaign strategy. He said the party leadership had a right to protect such information.

Representing the Bengal government and the DGP, senior advocate Abhishek Singhvi referred to the January 9 disruption but argued it could not justify parallel proceedings in different courts. The bench responded that emotions “cannot go out of hand repeatedly”.

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