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What Modi govt was hiding: Unemployment highest in 45 years; but more reports pending

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Unemployment

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The country’s unemployment rate stood at a 45-year high of 6.1% last year (2017-18) according to the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO) periodic labour force survey (PLFS) reported by Business Standard (BS).

This is the data which Prime Minister Narendra Modi government has withheld, prompting the two independent members of National Statistical Commission (NSC) – acting chairman PC Mohanan and member JV Meenakshi – to resign.

The government merely expressed surprise, saying the two had not raised their concerns at any of the meetings, and added that the report was being processed and will be released thereafter. It also said there were some aspects missing in the report, inviting the further criticism that a minister and his bureaucrats cannot be better judges of the report than the experts specially entrusted the task.

Already under fire for growing joblessness, it was clear that Modi government was reluctant to release the report with 2019 Lok Sabha election due in just a couple of months.

But apart from the job front, there is a whole range of other government reports and statistics that is usually updated periodically, which Modi government has not made public for years: data on crime, farmer suicides, caste and agricultural wages, found an IndiaSpend research. More on that below; first, let’s look at the NSSO survey findings.

This is the first survey on employment by a government agency after PM Modi announced demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes in November 2016. The PLFS is the first annual household survey of the NSSO. Data was collected between July 2017 and June 2018.

Documents reviewed by the Business Standard showed that joblessness – unemployment rate –was at its highest since the 1972-73 period, from when the employment data is comparable.

In comparison, the unemployment rate stood at 2.2% in 2011-12, during the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) second term, according to the survey.

The report showed that the unemployment rate among the youth was at a higher level compared to previous years and “much higher compared to that in the overall population”.

The rate of unemployment among men in rural areas between the ages of 15 and 29 years jumped to 17.4 percent in 2017-18 compared to 5 percent in 2011-12. The unemployment rate among women in rural areas stood at 13.6 percent in 2017-18 compared to 4.8 percent in 2011-12, according to the survey.

Unemployment among youth in urban areas was higher than in rural areas – 18.7 percent for men and 27.2 percent for women in 2017-18.

The same was true for the educated. More among the educated were jobless in 2017-18 than they were in 2004-05. For educated women in rural areas, unemployment was at 17.3 percent in 2017-18 compared to 9.7 percent-15.2 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12. For educated men in rural areas, the unemployment rose to 10.5 percent in 2017-18 compared to 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent during 2004-05 to 2011-12.

The labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of population working or seeking jobs, declined from 39.5 percent in 2011-12 to 36.9 percent in 2017-18. The labour force participation has been declining since 2004-05. The dip was at a higher pace in 2017-18 compared to 2011-12, but at a lower speed than what was witnessed in 2009-10.

Earlier, surveys conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said that 1.1 core jobs were lost last year.

India’s economy has been expanding by 7 per cent plus annually — the fastest pace among major economies — but the uneven growth has meant there are not enough jobs created for millions of young Indians entering the workforce each year. This has put pressure on Modi as he faces general elections in May.

The Modi government’s penchant to present a rosy picture of national situation extends to concealing the ugly reality in many key areas.

 

Withholding data is Harmful to the Country in many ways

Lack of data prevents central and state governments from making informed decisions, Jayati Ghosh, a development economist and professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University was quoted as saying by IndiaSpend. Citizens who need to plan for their savings, investments and other issues are similarly affected, she said.

It creates economic opacity that prevents businesses and investors from making good decisions, said IndaSpend quoting Sabina Dewan, president and executive director of JustJobs Network, a research organisation focussed on strategies for job creation & workforce development.

Dewan said it also prevents NGOs and other development-oriented organisations from doing their work in an evidence-based manner.

“How are we to hold government accountable if they control and censure information that should be publicly accessible? We risk going down a very slippery slope if government withholds such data that should help in determining the policies that will actually help address the jobs crisis,” she told IndiaSpend.

“The Indian government’s withholding of the National Sample Survey employment/ unemployment report, which is expected to reflect job losses, undermines the ability of the electorate to make informed decisions,” said Dewan, adding, “A functional democracy is premised on an informed electorate.”

“All surveys should be put into the public domain so that researchers and analysts can examine and critique the data quality and also generate additional analyses that can serve the policy community,” Purnima Menon, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told IndiaSpend. The National Family Health Survey and the National Sample Survey, for instance, can be downloaded directly from the websites, she said. “It’s fantastic to see the various data and research outputs generated from these,” she added.

Citizens deserve to know whether major economic reforms such as demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax have had an impact on employment, Dewan added.

“At the very least, the public, experts and even other policymakers that can use this information to make informed decisions, deserve an explanation,” Dewan added.

 

Modi government has kept the country in the dark about several important indicators that are essential for policy making and governance.

Recently, there have also been concerns raised over data going missing from the websites of centrally-sponsored schemes. For example, several sets of data were removed from the Swachh Bharat-Gramin website, including data on expenditure, conversion of insanitary toilets which foster manual scavenging, and several details of toilet construction, as IndiaSpend reported on October 6, 2018.

 

Missing Statistics – A Non-Exhaustive List
Report Ministry/Department Last submitted
NSSO Annual Employment-Unemployment Report Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 2011-12
Socio-Economic Caste Census (data for OBCs was supposed to be released by 2015-16) Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner 2011-12
Rapid Survey of Children Ministry of Women and Child Development 2013-14
Foreign Direct Investment statistics Ministry of Commerce/DIPP Jun-18
Crime in India National Crime Records Bureau 2016
Prison Statistics of India National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Accidents and Suicides data National Crime Records Bureau 2015
Agricultural Wages Data Ministry of Agriculture/ Directorate of Economics and Statistics 2015-16

Source: IndiaSpend research

 

The accidents and suicides report, which provides information on farmer suicides and is brought out by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), has not been released for four years now.

Data on foreign direct investment, brought out every quarter by the department of industrial policy and production (DIPP), have not been released since June 2018, despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) providing it with regular inputs, according to this Business Today report published on January 29, 2019.

When the central government released the socio-economic profile of the population generated through the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) in 2015, it withheld data on caste despite demands from opposition parties and ministers within the government, a report in The Economic Times said in September 2018.

The report of a Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey–started towards the end of 2016 to create comprehensive nutritional profiles of preschoolers (0-4 years), school-age children (5-14 years) and adolescents (15-19 years)–has been ready but not released.

The report would help reorient India’s nutrition policy and serve as a baseline to evaluate the progress of recently launched initiatives such as the Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram (‘national adolescent health programme’), Rashtriya Bal Swasthya Karyakram (‘national child health programme’) and the National Iron-Plus Initiative, the IndiaSpend research said.

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Yogi Adityanath takes a dig at Akhilesh Yadav over Ram Temple visit plan

Yogi Adityanath’s remarks came after the Samajwadi Party announced that Akhilesh Yadav would visit the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on December 12.

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Yogi Adityanath

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Saturday took an apparent swipe at Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav over his planned visit to the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, saying those who had fired on Ram devotees should first apologise to them and to the saints.

Yogi made the remarks while addressing the 10th edition of Deepotsav in Ayodhya. He did not name Akhilesh Yadav directly.

Yogi’s remarks come after Akhilesh’s Ayodhya visit plan

The chief minister’s comments came after the Samajwadi Party announced that Akhilesh Yadav would visit the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on December 12. It would be his first visit to the temple since its inauguration, according to the report.

Yogi said those who had earlier neglected and insulted Ayodhya, opened fire on Ram devotees and subjected saints to lathicharge should come to the city only after seeking forgiveness.

“Let them apologise to the devotees of Lord Ram; let them apologise to the saints,” Yogi said, adding that they should repent for their past actions.

Reference to 1990 firing on kar sevaks

Yogi’s remarks referred to the 1990 police firing on kar sevaks during the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. At the time, the Uttar Pradesh government was headed by Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav’s father.

The chief minister said those who had once “bloodied” Ayodhya were now remembering the city. He also criticised political leaders over their conduct at religious gatherings, referring to the decorum of a katha.

Akhilesh has not yet visited the Ram Temple

Akhilesh Yadav has visited Ayodhya earlier but has not so far visited the Ram Temple. The SP leader was in the city on October 8 to attend a Bhagwat Katha organised by party leader Pawan Pandey.

According to the report, Akhilesh and his wife, Mainpuri MP Dimple Yadav, are scheduled to offer prayers at the Ram Temple and Hanumangarhi on December 12.

The planned visit comes amid political activity in Ayodhya ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due by February 2027.

Yogi highlights Ayodhya’s transformation

During his Deepotsav address, Yogi also spoke about the changes in Ayodhya and described the city’s transformation as an ideological victory.

He said those who had previously neglected Ayodhya were now witnessing its development. He also said Lord Ram represented India’s national consciousness, culture, values and self-respect.

The chief minister further recalled the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and said Ayodhya had regained the glory for which kar sevaks and saints had struggled.

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Ahead of Diwali, Yogi govt hikes DA by 5% for UP government staff

The Uttar Pradesh government has increased Dearness Allowance by 5 percentage points, taking it from 58% to 63%. The revised rate will benefit lakhs of eligible employees ahead of Diwali.

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Yogi Adityanath

The Uttar Pradesh government has announced a 5 per cent increase in Dearness Allowance (DA) for state government employees ahead of Diwali. With this revision, the DA rate has increased from 58 per cent to 63 per cent, providing financial relief to lakhs of eligible employees across the state.

The revised allowance will be effective from July 1, 2026, according to the government announcement. A government order was also issued on Saturday, November 7.

The enhanced DA will be paid along with employees’ regular November 2026 salaries.

Which employees will benefit from the DA hike?

The decision covers regular state government employees and several other categories of eligible staff.

These include employees of aided educational and technical institutions, regular and full-time employees of urban local bodies, work-charged employees and personnel drawing salaries under University Grants Commission (UGC) pay scales.

The revision is expected to benefit a large section of the Uttar Pradesh workforce ahead of the festive season.

What happens to the DA arrears?

The revised DA rate will apply retrospectively from July 1, 2026. Consequently, employees will also be entitled to arrears for the period preceding the November salary payment.

The government has made provisions for the payment of the arrears for July to October 2026. These amounts will be credited to employees’ provident fund accounts, according to the reported payment arrangements.

The enhanced allowance for November will be reflected in the regular salary for that month.

The decision comes ahead of Diwali and will provide additional financial relief to eligible government employees in Uttar Pradesh.

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Himanta Sarma to approach court over threat to gherao home in Zubeen case

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said his government would approach the Supreme Court and Gauhati High Court over a threat to gherao his residence if two prime accused in the Zubeen Garg death case are granted bail.

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Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Friday said the state government would bring before the Supreme Court and Gauhati High Court a threat by a group to gherao his residence in connection with the Zubeen Garg death case.

Speaking to reporters, Sarma described the threat as a serious matter, saying it posed a danger to his family and could amount to a direct attempt to murder.

The development comes ahead of the Supreme Court hearing on November 30 of the bail petitions filed by Shyamkanu Mahanta and Siddhartha Sharma, the two prime accused in the case.

Why Himanta Sarma plans to approach the courts

Sarma said he had instructed the state government’s legal department to bring the matter to the notice of both the Supreme Court and Gauhati High Court.

The Chief Minister objected to the group threatening to target his residence rather than holding a protest near the Chief Minister’s Office.

He said those questioning the judicial process should approach the Supreme Court or the high court instead of targeting him. Sarma also maintained that the courts should be allowed to carry out their work.

According to him, attempts to question the judicial process in this manner could obstruct the path of justice.

What the group said about the bail pleas

The Zubeen Garg Nyay Samiti, led by Raijor Dal MLA Akhil Gogoi, had announced on Thursday that it would gherao the Chief Minister’s residence under certain circumstances.

The group said it would carry out the protest if Shyamkanu Mahanta and Siddhartha Sharma were granted bail or if the Assam government failed to mount an effective legal opposition to their bail pleas.

The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the bail petitions of the two accused on November 30.

Bail granted to two accused in the case

The Gauhati High Court granted bail to singer Amritprava Mahanta, an accused in the Zubeen Garg death case, on October 9. She was granted bail against a bond of Rs 50,000 and two sureties of the same amount.

The high court has also granted bail to Sandipan Garg in the case.

Referring to the bail order concerning Amritprava Mahanta, Sarma said it mentioned that 160 witnesses had not named her during the court hearing, despite having done so during the investigation conducted by the Special Investigation Team (SIT).

Responding to questions over the development, Sarma said the witnesses should be questioned about the discrepancy rather than him.

What happened to Zubeen Garg?

Singer Zubeen Garg died in Singapore on September 19 last year while swimming in the sea.

Police in Singapore had said that no foul play was involved in his death. Garg had travelled to Singapore to attend the fourth edition of the North East India Festival (NEIF).

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