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PM Modi’s promise of doubling farmers’ income needs a reality check

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PM Modi’s promise of doubling farmers’ income needs a reality check

Agriculture is in deep crisis, deepened further in the last three due to restrictions on livestock trade.

Yesterday (Wednesday, June 20) Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacted with select group of farmers through video-conferencing over the Namo App to hear stories of how some of them had increased incomes and were leading happy lives. Modi then repeated his promise of doubling farmers’ income by 2022.

Just about a week earlier, a Down To Earth (DTE) report titled “How India lost its historic agriculture recovery growth phase in just four years” should bring this narrative down to proverbial earth.

Citing Government data, it noted a disturbing trend. In financial year 2017-18, agriculture would be growing at 2.1 per cent compared to 4.9 per cent in the previous year – and this, when India had a normal monsoon and previous two years of below normal monsoon had provided a low baseline: after a drought, agriculture growth is higher due to low baseline level.

The DTE said a crucial fact that has been missed by Modi government is its own series of rigorous reports on agriculture called “The Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income” led by Ashok Dalwai.

The first report of the Dalwai committee using inputs and research of over 100 experts has pointed out that India’s agriculture is currently in a deep crisis.

This analysis is supported by reports that farmers’ distress, and consequently, protests are growing all over the country. If that is unpalatable to Modi government, Modi government’s Dalwai committee report gives more inconvenient facts.

According to DTE, it says the country’s agriculture sector witnessed its highest ever growth phaseduring 2004-14: the period of Congress-led UPA-I and UPA-II governments. The report calls it the sector’s “recovery phase”; a term it defines as historic.“The agricultural sector grew at the growth of around 4 per cent per year during 2004-05 to 2014-15 and the growth was quite impressive as compared to 2.6 per cent per annum during the previous decade (1995-96 to 2004-05),” says the report.

More so, the report attributes this impressive agricultural growth more to government interventions than to other situational favourable conditions, said the DTE. “The most important factor for improved performance of agriculture, post 2004-05 period, has been the price received by the farmers caused by a number of underlying factors: hike given to MSP, increase in foodgrain procurement, increase in global agricultural prices and strong domestic demand for food,” it finds.

All recent farmers’ protests amid bumper harvests are for increasing the government’s minimum support price (MSP) and to force the NDA government to keep its electoral promise of a MSP plus 50 per cent extra to farmers.

Significantly – and alarmingly – it said that in the last three years, less than 10 per cent farmers could sell their produces in MSP, which is growing at pace seen during the 2004-14 period. Also, farmers across the country sold their bumper harvests at 30-50 per cent less than the MSP for all their produces during 2015-17.

The report just adds on to this worry of Modi. It sees the recent farmers’ protests as an indication of deepening crisis in agriculture sector post the “recovery phase”.

“At the basic level, agriculture when defined as an enterprise comprises two segments–production and post-production. The success of production as of now amounts to half success, and is therefore, not sustainable.”

“Recent agitations of farmers (June-July 2017) in certain parts of the country demanding higher prices on their produce following record output or scenes of farmers dumping tractor loads of tomatoes and onions onto the roads or emptying canisters of milk into drains exemplify neglect of other half segment of agriculture.”

Modi government’s performance in agriculture has been lacklustre, observes DTE. In 2015-16, agriculture contributed 17.4 per cent to India’s GDP, which was 18.3 per cent in 2013-14, the year before he came to power. In 2014-15, agriculture reported negative growth at -0.2 per cent. Despite this low base, next year it reported 1.2 per cent growth. And in 2016-17, it was estimated to be 4.1 per cent. At an average, the growth in the last four years is around 2 per cent.

Modi government’s cow preoccupation to push Hindutva agenda worsened this with cattle trade ban.

“The last three years are also known for restrictions on livestock trade. While government fiddled with this sector, the agrarian crisis deepened,” said the DTE.

It said the Dalwai Committee Report points out that the biggest contributor to the agricultural growth in 2004-14 was livestock sector, which has never reported a negative growth in the last 35 years.

“Thus, the livestock sector is likely to emerge as engine of growth of agricultural sector and can be relied upon for risk mitigation and minimising the losses to the farmers in case of even worst outcomes from others sub-sectors. Previous studies have unanimously reported that livestock as the best insurance against agrarian distress as the sector is the source of sustained income and generates income more frequently than the crop sector,” the report says.

It is known by this time that across north India, due to the restrictions and raids from cow protection groups, livestock trade and prices have crashed, the DTE said.

The DTE then delves into the question of whether a last-ditch attempt by Modi government to make its last full budget all about rural and agriculture sectors turn around the fate of farmers and rural Indians, or at least result in rich electoral harvest for Modi.

It answers in the negative, saying that the current agrarian crisis is too deep-rooted to witness an instant recovery through a farmer-friendly budget.

Looking into the income of a farmer in India, it says even during the “recovery phase”, a member of an agricultural household earned around Rs 214/month but his/her expenditure was about Rs 207, leaving a disposable income of just Rs 7/month.

Since 2015, India has witnessed two major droughts, some 600 incidents of crop losses due to unseasonal rains and other related incidents, and finally in two years of bumper harvests prices for their produces crashed majorly. It means, a farmer neither has any base capital to invest, nor has he the capacity to take the risk of going back to agriculture. This has added to the crisis that manifests in extreme resentments.

For the first time in recent history, relatively rich farmers were out on the streets protesting for better price for their produce, noted the DTE.

The Dalwai committee report shows that the government’s move to import foodgrains to curb inflation has majorly distorted the market against the domestic farmers. India’s export of agricultural produces has dipped. It recorded more than five times growth during 2004-2014: from Rs 50,000 crore to Rs 260,000 crore. In a year it dipped to Rs 210,000 crore in 2015-16, or a market potential loss of Rs 50,000 crore.

On the other hand, agricultural import has reported constant growth. It was Rs 30,000 crore in 2004-5, which increased to Rs 90,000 crore in 2013-14, the last year of the UPA-II government. In 2015-16, it reached to Rs 150,000 crore.

Close to 22 per cent of farmers subsist below the poverty line. The dip in farmers’ income, while giving a call for doubling income, shouldn’t be just another grand plan for a “new India”, because agricultural growth critically decides poverty reduction.

According to historic data, agricultural growth has much more impact on poverty reduction than any other activity like industrial growth. The DTE said it is time government got its focus back into the factors that once ensured this recovery phase.

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Hardeep Singh Puri dismisses E20 fuel controversy, says carmakers are comfortable with ethanol blend

Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has rejected concerns over E20 petrol, saying the controversy is based on misreporting and that automobile manufacturers have found no problems with the ethanol-blended fuel, which has been in use across India for over a year.

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Hardeep singh puri

Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has rejected concerns surrounding the government’s E20 petrol programme, describing the controversy as a result of “misreporting and misinterpretation”. The minister said automobile manufacturers have not raised concerns over the use of E20 fuel and questioned why the issue has resurfaced after the blended fuel has already been in use across the country for more than a year.

The government has been expanding ethanol blending in petrol as part of its broader strategy to reduce dependence on imported crude oil, lower carbon emissions and support India’s agricultural sector. E20 petrol contains 20 per cent ethanol and has been rolled out after compatibility assessments involving vehicle manufacturers and research institutions.

Puri rejects claims over E20 fuel

Responding to criticism circulating on social media, Puri said there is no evidence to support claims that E20 petrol damages vehicle engines or creates operational problems. He noted that millions of vehicles are already running on the fuel without widespread issues being reported.

According to the minister, nearly 20 crore two-wheelers and around 20 lakh four-wheelers are using E20 fuel. He added that vehicle manufacturers as well as service professionals have consistently indicated that they have not experienced any significant difficulties with the ethanol blend.

Questioning the timing of the debate, Puri said the fuel has already been available for a considerable period, making the sudden wave of criticism difficult to understand.

Government says E20 has been in use for over a year

The minister highlighted that India had already been using E15 fuel for more than three years before transitioning to E20. He said E20 petrol has been available nationwide since April 2025, meaning it has already completed more than a year of public use.

Puri also clarified that while discussions around higher ethanol blends such as E25 continue, the government has not announced any immediate rollout. He said testing is currently underway, and any future decision will be based on scientific evaluation and consultations with stakeholders, including automobile manufacturers.

Government says future ethanol blends will undergo testing

Addressing speculation about higher ethanol blends, Puri said the government is taking a cautious approach before introducing E25 petrol. He stressed that ongoing tests will be completed first, after which the findings will be reviewed before any policy decision is taken.

The minister said discussions with automobile manufacturers and other stakeholders would be an important part of the process before moving ahead with any higher ethanol blend.

“I neither make the cars nor the fuel. The car manufacturers are comfortable with the E20 fuel. Each one of them has made a statement,” Puri said, reiterating that vehicle makers have already expressed confidence in the current fuel blend.

He also noted that the rollout of E85 fuel would take additional time as it would require supporting infrastructure, including suitable fuel dispensing facilities at petrol pumps.

Government continues to promote ethanol blending

The Centre has identified ethanol blending as a key component of its energy transition strategy. Besides reducing India’s dependence on imported crude oil, the programme is intended to cut vehicular emissions and create additional demand for agricultural produce used in ethanol production.

The government has gradually increased ethanol blending targets over the past few years while working with automobile manufacturers and research agencies to ensure vehicle compatibility with higher ethanol blends.

Puri had earlier stated that the government welcomes constructive criticism of its policies but would not accept what he described as rumours regarding biofuel blending. His latest remarks come amid renewed social media discussions claiming that E20 fuel reduces vehicle mileage or causes engine-related issues.

Reiterating the government’s position, the minister said existing data and feedback from manufacturers do not indicate widespread problems with E20 petrol, adding that any future decisions on higher ethanol blends would continue to be based on testing, scientific assessment and stakeholder consultations.

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Congress to challenge Meenakshi Natarajan’s Rajya Sabha nomination rejection in Madhya Pradesh High Court

Congress leader Meenakshi Natarajan has announced that the party will challenge the rejection of her Rajya Sabha nomination in the Madhya Pradesh High Court, alleging the decision was legally flawed and that the Election Commission failed to follow a consistent approach.

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The Congress is preparing to challenge the rejection of senior leader Meenakshi Natarajan’s Rajya Sabha nomination before the Madhya Pradesh High Court, shifting the dispute from the political arena to the legal forum.

Weeks after her nomination was rejected ahead of the Rajya Sabha elections, the former Member of Parliament asserted that the decision was not the result of any lapse by Congress leaders, legal experts or those involved in preparing the nomination papers. Instead, she claimed the rejection was based on an incorrect legal interpretation.

Congress to file election petition

Natarajan said the party would file an election petition within the prescribed time and contest the entire process before the High Court. She also alleged that a deliberate narrative was created to portray the rejection as a consequence of negligence within the Congress, thereby diverting attention from the Election Commission’s role.

According to her, the Returning Officer rejected her nomination citing non-disclosure of information related to a pending case. However, she argued that Form-26, which candidates are required to submit along with their nomination papers, does not contain any specific provision requiring disclosure of such information.

Natarajan said she has contested multiple elections in the past and maintained that experienced legal experts within the Congress have handled nomination papers for years, making such an oversight highly unlikely.

Questions raised over Election Commission’s approach

The Congress leader also questioned the Election Commission’s handling of the matter, alleging that it failed to apply uniform standards in similar cases.

She referred to the case of Rajya Sabha candidate Parimal Nathwani in Jharkhand, claiming he was given 24 hours to rectify issues in his nomination papers, whereas she was not provided a similar opportunity. According to Natarajan, the differing treatment raises concerns about consistency in the poll body’s decision-making process.

Congress sources said the party’s legal cell is preparing the election petition under the guidance of senior lawyers. The dispute had earlier reached the Election Commission and subsequently the Supreme Court, but the party will now pursue the legal remedy available after the election process through the High Court.

The Congress has also alleged that the Election Commission did not act impartially during the proceedings. Party leaders claimed senior Congress representatives and lawyers reached the poll body on time to present their arguments, but the proceedings were delayed. They further alleged that the Election Commission had the authority to overturn the Returning Officer’s decision but chose not to intervene.

BJP rejects Congress allegations

The Bharatiya Janata Party dismissed the Congress’ allegations, attributing the controversy to internal issues within the opposition party.

BJP state spokesperson Ajay Yadav said the rejection of Natarajan’s nomination was the result of internal infighting in the Congress. He also claimed that the senior leader had been sidelined within her party and suggested that the Congress should introspect instead of blaming the Election Commission.

Natarajan, however, rejected claims that the Congress was responsible for any lapse leading to the rejection of her nomination.

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Heavy rain triggers flash floods and landslides across Jammu and Kashmir, damaging roads and property

Heavy rainfall triggered flash floods and landslides across Jammu and Kashmir, damaging infrastructure, disrupting traffic and prompting authorities to issue a weather advisory.

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Monsoon in Jammu and Kashmir

Heavy rainfall across several parts of Jammu and Kashmir triggered flash floods and landslides, causing widespread damage to roads, vehicles and residential property. The adverse weather also disrupted traffic in multiple areas, prompting authorities to advise people to remain vigilant.

Flash flood causes destruction in Doda

A flash flood struck the Thathri sub-division of Doda district after heavy overnight rainfall, leading to significant damage to homes, vehicles and other property.

Floodwaters surged through the Thathri market after water levels in local streams rose rapidly. Large quantities of mud, stones and debris entered residential areas, inundating houses and damaging parked vehicles as water flowed through roads and marketplaces.

Residents said the flooding occurred suddenly, leaving little time to respond. Officials have started assessing the damage, while restoration and relief work is underway.

Local residents alleged that debris from ongoing link road construction is frequently dumped into the Thathri stream. They claimed the accumulated material obstructs the natural flow of water, increasing the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall. Residents urged the administration to take corrective measures to prevent similar incidents in the future.

Doda-Kishtwar highway affected by flash floods

Continuous rainfall also triggered flash floods that damaged the Doda-Kishtwar highway, disrupting vehicular movement on the route.

Officials said floodwaters deposited large amounts of mud, boulders and debris on the highway. A portion of the road was damaged, forcing authorities to suspend traffic until conditions improve.

In neighbouring Kishtwar district, heavy rain triggered a landslide and mudslide near the tunnel area of the under-construction 540 MW Kwar Hydroelectric Power Project, adding to the weather-related disruption in the region.

Administration issues weather advisory

The administration had earlier issued an advisory warning of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas across Jammu and Kashmir.

Authorities advised residents, particularly those living near rivers, streams and nallahs, to remain alert and avoid unsafe locations during the ongoing spell of rain.

Samba receives highest rainfall

According to the Meteorological Department, Samba recorded the highest rainfall in the Jammu region during the 24-hour period ending at 8:30 am on Monday, receiving 90 mm of rainfall.

Kathua received 66.2 mm, followed by Katra (44.4 mm), Doda (42 mm), Jammu (41.8 mm), Udhampur (40.6 mm), Bhaderwah (33.6 mm), Kishtwar (24 mm), Reasi (10.5 mm), Batote (4.7 mm), Ramban (4.5 mm) and Banihal (0.4 mm).

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