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Amid Russia Ukraine war, Indian rupee declines to an all-time low against US dollar: How does US Dollar determine the value of Indian currency? All you need to know

India is one such country that is primarily affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Indian rupee fell to a record lifetime low of 76.97 against the US dollar.

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India is on the path to becoming the world's leading consumption economy, as household growth, tax reforms, and a booming Gen Z population fuel discretionary spending.

The ongoing Russia Ukraine war has not impacted just these two countries’ GDP but also affected the economy globally. India is one such country that is primarily affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The value of the Indian currency has declined to an all-time low.

The Indian rupee fell to a record lifetime low of 76.97 against the US dollar. It’s due to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, which has threatened to raise imported inflation and deepen the country’s trade and current account deficit.

Global crude oil prices were nearing record highs after reports said that the US and its European allies are considering barring Russian oil imports in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude oil hit a high of USD 139.13 per barrel, before easing a bit.

Which is the most powerful currency in the world and how does it determine the value of other currencies?

US dollar is the most powerful currency in the world. All the trading in the world is done in US dollars. Each country has its own currency and its value is determined by the economic concept of Demand and Supply.

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The value of a currency that is in higher demand has a higher value. The value of a currency is determined by economic factors such as trade, inflation, employment, interest rates, growth rate, and geopolitical situations.

The concept of currency fluctuation is part of the larger Foreign exchange market.

What is Foreign Exchange Market?

The Foreign Exchange Market is mainly a global market for currency trading. One currency is exchanged for another at a particular rate. The rate at which two particular currencies are exchanged is called the exchange rate.

The value of one country’s currency in relation to another country’s currency is known as the exchange rate.

How does US Dollar determine the value of Indian currency?

The US dollar is in high demand because India imports more goods from the US than it exports. The demand for the US dollar will rise in this situation because more dollars will be paid to the US while purchasing products from them.

To pay for these goods, more dollars will have to be purchased on the foreign exchange market in India. As a result, demand for US dollars will rise compared to the Indian rupee, boosting their value.

Read Also: Russia Ukraine War: These pictures of Ukrainian children caught in midst of war will break your heart

However, if the Indian Rupee’s value plummets dramatically, the government will step in. They will aim to decrease the supply of Indian rupees immediately to compensate for the low demand. They will purchase the Indian rupee on the market with US dollar reserves. As it buys more Indian currency with US dollars, the supply of Indian currency falls while the supply of US money rises, resulting in an increase in the rupee’s value and a reduction in the dollar’s value.

If the oil prices keep increasing at this rapid rate then the Indian currency could head towards 79 per dollar soon.

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Russia Ukraine War Live Updates: Russian military action will stop in a moment is Ukraine meets conditions, says Kremlin

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Deve Gowda hits back at Kharge’s married PM jibe, calls congress tie-up abusive relationship

HD Deve Gowda rebuts Mallikarjun Kharge’s remarks, saying JD(S) did not desert Congress and was forced to exit an “abusive” alliance.

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Former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda has responded sharply to remarks made by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge in the Rajya Sabha, rejecting the suggestion that he chose to align with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Congress.

War of words in rajya sabha

During his farewell speech in the Upper House, Kharge made a light-hearted remark about Deve Gowda’s political journey, saying he had “dated” the Congress but ultimately “married” Modi. The comment drew laughter across the House, including from the Prime Minister, who was present at the time.

Kharge also noted his long association with Deve Gowda, saying he had known him for over five decades but was unsure why the Janata Dal (Secular) leader shifted alliances.

Deve gowda’s ‘forced marriage’ reply

In a statement issued later, Deve Gowda said he was not present in the House when the comment was made as he had left for Bengaluru for Ugadi celebrations. Responding in similar metaphorical language, he said his association with the Congress was a “forced marriage” that eventually turned into an “abusive relationship.”

He asserted that his party did not leave the Congress alliance, but was instead compelled to move on after being sidelined.

Reference to 2018 karnataka alliance

Deve Gowda also revisited the 2018 Karnataka political developments, stating that the Congress leadership, including Ghulam Nabi Azad, had proposed his son H. D. Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister. He claimed he had instead suggested Kharge’s name, in the presence of leaders like Siddaramaiah.

Despite this, Kumaraswamy eventually took charge as Chief Minister after the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government.

Alliance collapse and aftermath

The coalition government collapsed in 2019 after multiple MLAs from both parties defected, leading to the fall of the government. Deve Gowda alleged that the Congress failed to act against those responsible for triggering the defections.

He maintained that the breakdown of the alliance left JD(S) with no option but to seek a “more stable” political partnership later.

Political context

Deve Gowda briefly served as Prime Minister following the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, heading a United Front government supported by the Congress. His party later allied with the Congress in Karnataka in 2018 before parting ways after the coalition government’s collapse.

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Markets tumble as oil crosses $110, sensex falls over 1,900 points

Markets opened sharply lower with Sensex plunging over 1,900 points as crude oil crossed $110 and global factors weighed on sentiment.

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Sensex

Indian stock markets opened sharply lower on Thursday, snapping a three-session gaining streak, as rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Benchmark indices witnessed a gap-down opening, with the Sensex plunging over 1,900 points at the open, while the Nifty dropped more than 450 points. The decline follows reports of Iran targeting key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, pushing Brent crude oil prices above the $110 per barrel mark.

At around 9:17 AM, the Sensex was trading at 75,235.05, down by 1,469.08 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty stood at 23,291.85, slipping 485.95 points.

Oil spike, global cues pressure equities

The surge in crude oil prices is a major concern for Indian markets, as higher oil costs can widen the current account deficit and fuel inflation. This often leads to cautious investor behaviour and triggers selling in equities.

Adding to the negative sentiment, the US Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates at current levels. Stable rates in the US tend to keep bond yields attractive, which can result in foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulling money out of emerging markets like India.

Early indicators had already pointed to a weak start. GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,324, down 453 points, signalling a negative opening for domestic indices.

Expert view signals sectoral shift

According to InvestorAi’s strategic outlook, there has been a noticeable shift in market positioning towards IT large-cap stocks. The move reflects a preference for companies with stable earnings visibility, especially those earning in dollars amid a weakening rupee.

The analysis highlights that IT exporters benefit from currency depreciation, as revenues are largely dollar-denominated while costs remain in rupees. However, the outlook remains sensitive to crude prices. A sustained rise above $110 could force policy tightening and impact valuations.

Key stocks in focus

Among the top conviction picks highlighted:

  • Mphasis seen as a strong mid-cap IT play with AI and cloud exposure
  • Wipro emerging as a turnaround candidate with improving margins
  • TCS acting as a sector bellwether reflecting broader IT trends
  • PB Fintech offering a high-margin digital growth story
  • KEI Industries representing domestic infrastructure and electrification demand

What investors should watch

Market participants are closely tracking the rupee’s movement against the US dollar. A sustained breach beyond 90.5–91 levels could further support IT stocks but may also signal broader macroeconomic stress.

Additionally, crude oil prices and geopolitical developments will remain key triggers for market direction in the near term.

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Delhi-NCR sees second spell of rain and thunderstorms in four days

Delhi-NCR experienced another spell of rain and thunderstorms on March 18, with IMD forecasting more showers over the next few days.

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Delhi and parts of the National Capital Region witnessed another spell of rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds on Wednesday evening, marking the second such weather event in the past four days.

The sudden change brought relief from unusually high temperatures recorded earlier this month. According to officials, the temperature at Safdarjung — the city’s base weather station — was recorded at 24 degrees Celsius at 7 pm.

The India Meteorological Department had earlier issued an alert predicting light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning on March 18. Several areas across the capital experienced gusty winds along with brief but intense showers.

More rain likely over next two days

The weather department has forecast partly cloudy skies for March 19 and 20, with chances of light rain or thundershowers occurring once or twice during the day. On March 21, skies are expected to remain cloudy with the possibility of light showers continuing.

Conditions are likely to stabilise from March 23 onwards, with forecasts indicating a return to partly cloudy to clear skies across the region.

Weather activity across India to intensify

The IMD has also indicated widespread weather activity across multiple regions of the country in the coming days. Rainfall is expected to intensify in several states, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds.

In the northeastern region, heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya during the early part of the week.

Meanwhile, the western Himalayan region is also set to witness a shift in weather patterns. Himachal Pradesh is likely to receive heavy rainfall on March 19 and 20, while Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir may experience heavy showers around March 20.

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