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IMD says monsoon to be ‘near-normal’ at 96% amid weak El Nino

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IMD says monsoon to be ‘near-normal’ at 96% amid weak El Nino

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]India could witness a near-normal monsoon this season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said today (Tuesday, April 16), bringing good news to the nation’s largely rain-fed agriculture after poor rains and drought last year.

“There is good news—the monsoon is likely to be near normal. The rainfall in the four-month season from June to September is likely to be 96% of the 50-year average of 89 cm with a model error of +/-5%,” M. Rajeevan, secretary at the ministry of earth sciences, said while releasing IMD’s first long-range forecast for the monsoon this year.

The south-west monsoon, which makes its onset over the country in June, irrigates over half of India’s cropland and sustains the livelihood of over 58% of its population that is dependent on agriculture. The monsoon forecast is crucial, as it directly influences agricultural production and has a spiralling impact on inflation and growth.

“It does not seem to be bad news. However, much depends on how far the rainfall is going to be evenly distributed across regions and if the areas already facing dry conditions would see some respite. There is still some uncertainty over that,” said D.K. Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

According to the weather department, there is 39% probability of normal rainfall, 32% probability of below normal and 17% probability of deficient rains. There are low chances of the monsoon rainfall being above normal (10%) or in excess (2%).

The monsoon was dismal in 2018 ending with an overall deficit of 9.4%, pushing several states including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh into drought.

The crisis deepened after the north-east monsoon, which brings rainfall over the southern states, also fared poorly and ended with a deficit as high as 44%.

“Our climate models suggest that the rainfall would be well-distributed. It would be good for the farmers during the upcoming kharif season,” said K.J. Ramesh, director general of meteorology at IMD. The sowing of kharif crops begins in June.

IMD officials, however, did not completely negate the risk of weak El Niño conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is a weather phenomenon linked to below normal rains and drought.

“Weak El Nino conditions would persist in the monsoon season, but with reduced intensity. It peaked in February. Its intensity would decrease further from July onwards, which is an agriculturally crucial month. However, we could see some impact in June,” said the IMD head, assuaging concerns about the potential impact of El Nino.

“There is an undercurrent of risk due to El Nino, but it is on the downside. We do not know if it would have any direct or indirect impact, but whatever it would be, it does not seem to be big,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi.

Last year, IMD overestimated the monsoon rainfall. Contrary to its forecast of 97% of the long period average (LPA), which was later reduced to 95% of LPA, the actual rainfall was recorded at 91% of LPA, which fell in the below-normal category.

“Our forecast was accurate for all regions, but we failed miserably in predicting the north-east region. The region recorded the lowest rainfall—at 76% of LPA—which has not happened in years,” Rajeevan said. “But this time, it is clearly a normal monsoon. The uncertainty is on account of +/-5% model error.”

After consecutive drought years due to El Nino in 2014 and 2015, India’s monsoon prospects improved in 2016 when the country recorded normal rainfall at 97% of LPA. In 2017, rainfall was near normal at 95% of LPA but then dropped last year to a below normal level of 91% of LPA.

IMD will monitor the El Nino conditions and update its forecast in the first week of June, with predictions for region-wise and month-wise rainfall. The onset of monsoon over the southern coast will be announced around 15 May.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Entertainment

Kapil Sharma warned by MNS for referring to Mumbai as Bombay on Netflix show

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Bollywood comedian Kapil Sharma has come under the radar of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) after the use of the term Bombay instead of Mumbai on his Netflix show The Great Indian Kapil Show. MNS spokesperson Ameya Khopkar issued a warning, stating that the usage of the city’s former name could hurt the sentiments of its residents and demanded that the correct name, Mumbai, be used.

The controversy arose during an episode featuring actress Huma Qureshi, her brother Saqib Saleem, and the Shetty sisters. While talking about her bond with Saqib, Qureshi referred to the city as Bombay, explaining that she felt at home with him despite not being originally from the city. This comment drew criticism from the MNS, who have historically been vocal about protecting the identity and pride of Mumbai.

In a post on X, Khopkar stated in Marathi, that even though 30 years have passed since Bombay was officially renamed Mumbai, the term Bombay is still frequently used by celebrity guests on The Kapil Sharma Show, Delhi-based Rajya Sabha MPs, show anchors, and in many Hindi films. He noted that the name change was officially recognized by the Maharashtra government in 1995 and by the Central Government in 1996, preceding similar renamings in other major cities such as Chennai, Bengaluru, and Kolkata.

Khopkar further emphasized the seriousness of the matter during a media interaction in Mumbai. He stated that Sharma had been working in Mumbai for many years and described the city as his land of work. He added that the people of Mumbai admire him and watch his shows, and warned that the city and its residents should not be insulted, cautioning Sharma against repeating the mistake.

He added that if the reference had been made unintentionally, the mistake should be corrected immediately. Khopkar stated that all guests on the show, including celebrities and the host, should be informed in advance to refer to the city as Mumbai. He warned that if this is not followed, the MNS would launch a strong agitation.

The Great Indian Kapil Show has recently been renewed for a third season. Its first two seasons, comprising 13 episodes each, premiered in 2024, featuring a mix of Bollywood celebrities and entertainers. The controversy marks one of the few instances where the city’s political groups have publicly intervened over the naming of Mumbai on popular entertainment platforms.

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Indian-origin motel manager beheaded in the US

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In a horrifying incident in Dallas, Texas, an Indian-origin motel manager, Chandra Nagamallaiah, was brutally beheaded by a guest following an argument over a malfunctioning washing machine. The gruesome attack was carried out by 37-year-old Yordanis Cobos-Martinez in front of Nagamallaiah’s wife and children, leaving the family traumatized.

According to court records and affidavits, the confrontation began when Nagamallaiah reportedly told Cobos-Martinez not to use a broken washing machine at the Downtown Suites motel. The suspect became enraged, partly because the manager relied on a woman present for translation instead of speaking directly to him. Surveillance footage later revealed Cobos-Martinez producing a machete and repeatedly stabbing and cutting Nagamallaiah, despite the efforts of his wife and child to intervene.

The affidavit details that the victim tried to flee to the motel’s front office while screaming for help, but the attacker followed him and continued the assault. Cobos-Martinez removed Nagamallaiah’s key card and cellphone before ultimately beheading him. Disturbing footage reportedly shows the suspect kicking the severed head across the ground before throwing it into a trash bin.

Cobos-Martinez, a Cuban national with a long criminal history, including convictions for grand theft, carjacking, false imprisonment, and sexual offenses, was arrested shortly after the attack. Authorities found him a block away wearing a blood-soaked T-shirt, along with the victim’s key card and cellphone. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials noted that Cobos-Martinez should not have been in the country at the time, as previous attempts to deport him to Cuba were unsuccessful due to his criminal record.

The Department of Homeland Security described the beheading as unthinkable and stated that the case highlights the critical need for strict immigration enforcement. A witness to the attack told NBC DFW that they could not explain what they saw, describing the suspect as appearing there and not there at the same time, emphasizing the surreal and terrifying nature of the crime.

This shocking incident has left the Dallas community and Nagamallaiah’s family in deep distress, as authorities continue their investigation into the motive and circumstances surrounding the brutal murder.

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AAP MP Sanjay Singh accuses J&K authorities of house arrest, Farooq Abdullah condemns move

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Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MP Sanjay Singh on Thursday accused Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha of placing him under house arrest while he was in Srinagar to protest the detention of the party’s sole J&K MLA, Mehraj Malik.

Singh climbed the gate of a government guest house in Srinagar to meet National Conference (NC) chief Farooq Abdullah and later shared visuals of the interaction on social media. He said it was a very sad thing that Abdullah, who has served multiple terms as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, came to meet him at the guest house after learning about his alleged house arrest but was not allowed to do so. Singh further questioned the authorities’ actions, asking whether if this is not dictatorship, then what it is.

Malik, the MLA from Doda Assembly seat, has been detained under the Public Safety Act (PSA) on charges of disturbing public order. This marks the first instance of a sitting lawmaker being booked under the PSA, which allows authorities to detain individuals without charge or trial for up to two years. Singh alleged that Mr. Malik’s detention was retaliation for raising people’s issues in his constituency.

Abdullah also condemned the attempts to stop Singh from holding his protest. In a statement to news agency ANI, he said that preventing Singh from exercising his right to protest was absolutely wrong and accused the Lieutenant Governor Sinha of misusing his powers. He stressed that the right to protest is guaranteed by the Constitution of India, noting that Jammu and Kashmir being a union territory gives the LG significant authority, which, according to him, was being used for the wrong purposes. Abdullah questioned whether it was necessary to prevent Singh from speaking and asserted that this is not an autocracy, there is a constitution here.

Abdullah drew parallels with the recent unrest in Nepal, where protests led to the resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, and cautioned that India must safeguard its Constitution to prevent similar circumstances. He urged the LG to uphold constitutional principles, warning that failure to do so could risk unrest, and emphasized the need to take care of the Constitution before such a fire breaks out in the country.

Other opposition leaders, including AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut, also expressed concern over the move, condemning what they described as an infringement on democratic rights.

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