[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Earth is running a temperature. After a warmer than usual winter with scanty rainfall, India is in for hotter than usual period ahead with a hot spring leading to searing summer heat, according to the weather department.
As for any hopes of monsoons bringing respite, the met department said it was too early to predict accurately, but La Nina conditions, that bring heavy rains, are likely to be moderate till spring season and are likely to start weakening thereafter.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its summer forecast has warned that temperatures in several parts of the country, especially north India, are set to soar bringing in a hot spring and a merciless summer with average temperatures between March and May likely to be about 1 degree Celsius above the normal with possible heat waves.
The ‘normal’ temperatures refer to the mean temperatures during these months between 1981 and 2010.
Several parts of India — ranging from Palakkad in Kerala to Mumbai — reported day time temperatures on Tuesday greater than 35 degrees Celsius, or heat wave conditions, said a report in The Hindu.
Globally, the last two years have been the hottest ever recorded and the warming is going to stay by all indications.
The IMD said the average maximum temperatures in Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh would be more than 1.5C higher.
The hills offer little respite. After experiencing a shortfall in precipitation, the Himalayan states would be over 2 degrees hotter (Jammu and Kashmir is forecast to be 2.44C hotter, Himachal Pradesh 2.75C and Uttarakhand 2.66C ).
Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema would see temperature rise between 0.5 degrees Celsius and 1 degree Celsius from their historical normal, according to the IMD outlook.
The IMD said that the only regions likely to see a moderate rise in temperatures are south India and a few northeastern states of Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram and Tripura, but the rise in temperature would be all over.
Last year too, the IMD had forecast summer temperatures in several parts of north, northwest, central and east India to be over 1 degree Celsius of their historical summer normals. The IMD’s climate summary in January said that 2017 was the “fourth warmest year on record since 1901”.
“Studies also indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves over the country, which can be attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gases and the warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans,” the IMD noted in its press statement.
“In the absence of other large scale signals during the March-May period, the increased temperatures predicted in the forecast can be attributed to global warming,” said a Times of India report quoting D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD’s long term forecasting division which made the forecast.
“A majority of international weather models have been showing increased temperatures in most parts of the world in the recent years. This shows a global warming trend,” said Pai, according to the report.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1519897214407{padding-top: 5px !important;padding-right: 5px !important;padding-bottom: 5px !important;padding-left: 5px !important;background-color: #a2b1bf !important;border-radius: 5px !important;}”]Excerpt from Indian Meteorological Department report
Normal to above normal heat wave (HW) conditions are likely over core heat wave zone of the country.
Country experiences hot weather and heat wave conditions (days with abnormally warmer temperatures) during March to July period with many adverse impacts on the human health, water resources and power generation and outage. Studies also indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves over the country, which can be attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gases and the warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans.
There is about 52% probability of grid point maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during March to May 2018 to be above normal.
Core Heat Wave zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests that normal to above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the core HW zone during the season.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]