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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Does Emmanuel Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Hillary Clinton’s? Only time will provide the correct answer

By Saeed Naqvi

Accustomed either to isolation or global dominance, the US has in recent years been playing a third role. Ever since its power diminished following the 2008 meltdown, it finds itself running around to block political forces which are ascendant everywhere almost independent of its authority.

Brexit happened despite the US. The country itself has a President it did not want. And now, the weight of its establishment is behind the centrist banker, Emmanuel Macron in France. But will that suffice to keep the ultranationalist Marine Le Pen at bay? The falcon cannot see the falconer.

Electoral eruptions are taking place everywhere almost in defiance of American will. In some instances, it is difficult to fathom what possible interest the US might have had in a certain outcome until the truth suddenly leaps out of the thicket, in sharp silhouette.

Why, for instance, would the CIA exert every muscle to support the Right Wing Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador, a country of 16 million people? In the event, a rank Leftist with a menacing name, Lenin Moreno, won.

World affairs these days are sometimes like a game of billiards. That roughly is the effect of Lenin Moreno’s victory in Quito. The consequence of this outcome is that Julian Assange, who controls the nightmare called Wikileaks, now cannot be dispatched to Sweden for trial. He can live for the next few years in the comfort of the Ecuador Embassy in London. That clearly is an affront to the US establishment.

Worse maybe on its way in Mexico, Monroe doctrine or no Monroe doctrine. Come the 2018 elections, President Enrique Nieto will by all accounts be hit for a six, to be replaced by Leftist Lopez Obrador, if not something more radical. The “Building the wall” rhetoric is not the only humiliation that has registered with the Mexican electorate.

So, scramble CIA; reversal in Mexico has to be averted at all costs just as one has to be speeded up in Venezuela.

You may sail the world’s most powerful Armada to threaten Kim Jong-un, but every school boy in Seoul knows that US troops in Panmunjom and at nearby Okinawa Island would be exposed to even hand carried ordnance in the unlikely event of hostilities.

Then why all this bluster on the part of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Vice-President Mike Pence and President Trump himself? The US has patronized many corrupt regimes in Seoul, but the disgrace in which President Park Geun-hye had to leave office has left South Koreans shattered. Is the US influence with the regime that comes in after May 9 elections about to plummet?

Is all this muscle flexing, then mixing hot and cold (Trump says he would meet Kim Jong-un), designed to somehow psyche Korean voting intentions? South Korea is not exempt from anti-Americanism. An outcome conditioned by this factor will clearly be advantageous to China and Russia.

The global establishment is on sixes and sevens on which way the cookie might crumble in France. At the outset, Macron seemed a clever idea, responding to the universal quest for something new, different from the established parties. But as the date of elections approaches, the idea begins to look too clever by half.

A 39-year-old, married to a grandmother, branches out with his own party, En Marche, or March Ahead, has considerable novelty attached to it. But on close scrutiny he is a Rothschild banker, a former member of the most unpopular Francois Hollande government. Establishment to the core. old wine in new bottle. Le Pen tattooed him with punches on that count in the TV debate the other night.

Suddenly imagination transports me to that Dumbo Loft under the Brooklyn Bridge on the evening of November 8. Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner. It was an impressive assembly of World Bankers, State Department officials, artists, journalists, friends Saeed Raza and Nusrat Durrani from Lucknow (to underscore my parochialism), all eager to celebrate a Clinton victory. But we all know what happened. (For the rest of the drama read my November 10 blog.)

Does Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Clinton’s? The American establishment shows traces of Joseph McCarthy in its DNA at the sight of anything resembling the classical left. Comfort level with a Bertolt Brecht and Arthur Miller is confined to Broadway shows. Little wonder Bernie Sanders was grounded by the Democratic Establishment when he was miles ahead in the race.

In the French campaign, the communist Jean-Luc Melenchon surged with lightening speed, but the French public was witness to his brilliant presentation only towards the end of the campaign. Imagine where he might have been had a viscerally anti-Left media placed the spotlight on him earlier. Even so, he got 20 percent of the first round votes as against Le Pen’s 21 and Macron’s 23 percent.

All sorts of calculations are afoot: if 90 percent of Le Pen’s supporters turned out but only 65 of Macron’s were mobilized, she would win.

The trophy for prescience on the US elections clearly belonged to the filmmaker Michael Moore: “This election is only about who gets who out to vote, who gets the most rabid supporters, the mind of candidate who gets people out of bed at 5.00 am on Election Day.”

Moore added: “So many people have given up on the system because the system has given up on them. They know it is all bullshit: politics, politicians, elections. People want to tear down establishments.” And Macron sadly, is “the” establishment in very thin disguise.

In an insightful piece, Ross Douthat wrote in The New York Times that Le Pen has with great deliberation distanced herself from the anti-Semitism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. This brings her closer to the middle.

According to Douthat, “Nobody seriously doubts Le Pen’s competence, her command of policy, her ability to serve as president without turning the office into a Reality TV thunderdrome.” Trump’s inability to master his own turbulent emotions is not an issue with his Gallic counterpart.

In the US, the media (except Fox News) threw its total weight behind Clinton. It had egg on its face. The French media, likewise, is supporting Macron to the hilt. In our perverse times, is that not a good omen for Le Pen?[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Two helicopters collide while landing in Nepal, one Indian killed

Two helicopters struck each other while approaching a heliport near Mount Everest in Nepal. One Indian national died, while another person was taken to hospital with injuries.

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An Indian national was killed and another person injured after two helicopters collided while attempting to land at a high-altitude heliport in Nepal’s Solukhumbu district, near Mount Everest.

Nepal Police confirmed the incident in a post on X. The heliport is located around 250 km from Kathmandu, the country’s capital. The deceased was identified as Vasanth Kumar Balaramaramadu, an Indian national, according to a report by Kathmandu Post.

The accident came into public attention after a video purportedly showing the collision circulated on social media. The footage appears to show the rotor blades of the two helicopters striking each other shortly before landing, following which both aircraft fall onto the icy ground.

However, the authenticity of the video has not been independently verified by report.

Nabin Raja Budhathoki, who is in charge of Solukhumbu district police, told AFP that one foreign national had died at the scene, while another injured person had been taken to hospital.

Helicopters play an important role in Nepal, transporting tourists, mountaineers and supplies across its mountainous terrain. They are also used for emergency evacuations.

Nepal has eight of the world’s 14 highest mountains and receives thousands of foreign climbers and trekkers every year. Flying in these high-altitude areas presents considerable challenges.

At higher elevations, thinner air gives helicopter rotor blades fewer air molecules to push against, reducing the lift they can generate. Engines also receive less oxygen for combustion, which can affect their power output.

A similar high-altitude helicopter accident was reported just days earlier in India’s Uttarakhand. That helicopter crashed shortly after taking off from Badrinath, killing all six people on board, including the pilot and five passengers.

An Indian national was killed and another person injured after two helicopters collided while landing at a high-altitude heliport in Nepal’s Solukhumbu district, near Mount Everest. A purported video of the collision has surfaced on social media, but its authenticity remains unverified.

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Arab parties emerge kingmakers in Israel as Netanyahu falls short of majority

Arab parties have emerged as potential kingmakers in Israel after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc fell short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. The opposition bloc also failed to secure a majority on its own.

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PM Benjamin Netanyahu

Arab political parties have emerged as crucial players in Israel’s government formation process after the country’s 2026 parliamentary election left both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling bloc and the opposition short of the numbers needed to secure a majority.

According to the final vote count, Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc secured 53 seats, while the opposition bloc won 48 seats. Arab parties, meanwhile, secured a combined 19 seats, placing them in a potentially decisive position in negotiations over the next government.

Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, and a coalition needs at least 61 to form a government. With neither major political bloc reaching that threshold independently, Arab parties could play an important role in determining the country’s political direction.

The figures were reported following the release of results by Israel’s Central Elections Committee on Thursday.

Netanyahu’s Likud remains largest party

Despite falling short of a parliamentary majority, Netanyahu’s Likud party is expected to emerge as the largest single party in the Knesset, with 27 seats.

However, the overall performance of his right-wing bloc has left him facing difficulties in securing enough support to form the next government.

The opposition bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, also failed to reach the 61-seat threshold with its 48 seats.

The outcome has made coalition negotiations particularly important, with the support of Arab-led parties potentially changing the parliamentary arithmetic.

How Arab parties could influence government formation

The combined 19 seats won by Arab parties have given them considerable influence in the post-election political landscape.

Even without formally joining a government coalition, Arab lawmakers could support Netanyahu’s opponents in important parliamentary votes.

One possibility involves supporting the opposition in the election of a new Knesset speaker. Such backing could give the opposition greater control over parliamentary proceedings and potentially allow it to advance legislation before a new government is formed.

Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, has indicated that he is open to working with Arab-led parties under certain conditions.

Ahmad Tibi, who is second on the Arab-led Joint List, also said that the opposition bloc had approached him about replacing the Knesset speaker. He indicated that his party would support the opposition’s candidate.

However, the possibility of cooperation remains politically complicated, given differences within the opposition over working with Arab parties.

Netanyahu faces corruption charges and October 7 scrutiny

The election outcome could also have significant implications for Netanyahu’s political future.

If he loses office, he would face accountability over long-standing corruption charges. A formal investigation would also almost certainly be launched into the security failures surrounding the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Netanyahu has faced sustained political pressure over the handling of the security lapses surrounding the attack.

Meanwhile, his party amplified allegations that Arab-led parties had stolen the election, potentially with foreign assistance, as the final results emerged.

The allegations were not substantiated in the report.

Opposition leaders accused Netanyahu of targeting and demonising Israel’s Arab population following the historic performance of Arab-led parties.

Another election remains a possibility

With neither political bloc securing an independent majority, Israel could face another election if negotiations fail to produce a government.

The next government formation process will therefore depend on whether the opposition can secure support from Arab parties or find other political arrangements to reach the required majority.

For now, the 19 seats won by Arab parties have placed them in a pivotal position, while Netanyahu’s 53-seat bloc remains short of the numbers required to govern independently.

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Israel election results show no clear winner as Netanyahu short of majority

Israel’s 2026 election has produced no clear winner, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot both short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the Knesset.

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PM Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel’s 2026 parliamentary election has left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot short of a majority in the Knesset, leaving the formation of the next government uncertain.

Exit polls released after voting ended on October 27 projected different seat totals for Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot. The differing projections indicated that neither bloc was assured of a majority.

The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, has 120 seats, and a majority requires at least 61. The initial projections suggested that neither side had reached that threshold.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs fall short

Exit polls from Channels 11 and 13 projected 51 seats for each of the two rival blocs, while Channel 12 projected 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc.

Although Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to remain the largest individual party, its position did not automatically guarantee another term for the prime minister.

A partial count reported on October 28 put Netanyahu’s bloc at 53 seats, the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot at 48 and Arab-led parties at 19. These figures were provisional, with the counting and verification of special ballots still capable of changing the seat distribution.

Arab-led parties could influence government formation

Arab-led parties could influence the coalition arithmetic because neither main bloc had secured a majority in the partial count. However, their seat totals alone do not establish whether they will support either bloc in government formation.

However, the number of seats won by a party or bloc does not by itself determine who becomes prime minister. Government formation depends on whether a candidate can secure sufficient parliamentary support.

The final seat distribution and the positions taken by potential coalition partners will therefore be important in determining the next steps.

What happens next in Israel?

After the official results are announced, President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult representatives of the elected parties and assign the task of forming a government to the candidate he believes has the best chance of securing parliamentary support.

Coalition negotiations could take weeks. If neither side can assemble a government, the country could face further political uncertainty.

At the reporting stage described on October 28, the count was still underway, and the available figures had not established whether either bloc could secure a majority in the Knesset.

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