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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Does Emmanuel Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Hillary Clinton’s? Only time will provide the correct answer

By Saeed Naqvi

Accustomed either to isolation or global dominance, the US has in recent years been playing a third role. Ever since its power diminished following the 2008 meltdown, it finds itself running around to block political forces which are ascendant everywhere almost independent of its authority.

Brexit happened despite the US. The country itself has a President it did not want. And now, the weight of its establishment is behind the centrist banker, Emmanuel Macron in France. But will that suffice to keep the ultranationalist Marine Le Pen at bay? The falcon cannot see the falconer.

Electoral eruptions are taking place everywhere almost in defiance of American will. In some instances, it is difficult to fathom what possible interest the US might have had in a certain outcome until the truth suddenly leaps out of the thicket, in sharp silhouette.

Why, for instance, would the CIA exert every muscle to support the Right Wing Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador, a country of 16 million people? In the event, a rank Leftist with a menacing name, Lenin Moreno, won.

World affairs these days are sometimes like a game of billiards. That roughly is the effect of Lenin Moreno’s victory in Quito. The consequence of this outcome is that Julian Assange, who controls the nightmare called Wikileaks, now cannot be dispatched to Sweden for trial. He can live for the next few years in the comfort of the Ecuador Embassy in London. That clearly is an affront to the US establishment.

Worse maybe on its way in Mexico, Monroe doctrine or no Monroe doctrine. Come the 2018 elections, President Enrique Nieto will by all accounts be hit for a six, to be replaced by Leftist Lopez Obrador, if not something more radical. The “Building the wall” rhetoric is not the only humiliation that has registered with the Mexican electorate.

So, scramble CIA; reversal in Mexico has to be averted at all costs just as one has to be speeded up in Venezuela.

You may sail the world’s most powerful Armada to threaten Kim Jong-un, but every school boy in Seoul knows that US troops in Panmunjom and at nearby Okinawa Island would be exposed to even hand carried ordnance in the unlikely event of hostilities.

Then why all this bluster on the part of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Vice-President Mike Pence and President Trump himself? The US has patronized many corrupt regimes in Seoul, but the disgrace in which President Park Geun-hye had to leave office has left South Koreans shattered. Is the US influence with the regime that comes in after May 9 elections about to plummet?

Is all this muscle flexing, then mixing hot and cold (Trump says he would meet Kim Jong-un), designed to somehow psyche Korean voting intentions? South Korea is not exempt from anti-Americanism. An outcome conditioned by this factor will clearly be advantageous to China and Russia.

The global establishment is on sixes and sevens on which way the cookie might crumble in France. At the outset, Macron seemed a clever idea, responding to the universal quest for something new, different from the established parties. But as the date of elections approaches, the idea begins to look too clever by half.

A 39-year-old, married to a grandmother, branches out with his own party, En Marche, or March Ahead, has considerable novelty attached to it. But on close scrutiny he is a Rothschild banker, a former member of the most unpopular Francois Hollande government. Establishment to the core. old wine in new bottle. Le Pen tattooed him with punches on that count in the TV debate the other night.

Suddenly imagination transports me to that Dumbo Loft under the Brooklyn Bridge on the evening of November 8. Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner. It was an impressive assembly of World Bankers, State Department officials, artists, journalists, friends Saeed Raza and Nusrat Durrani from Lucknow (to underscore my parochialism), all eager to celebrate a Clinton victory. But we all know what happened. (For the rest of the drama read my November 10 blog.)

Does Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Clinton’s? The American establishment shows traces of Joseph McCarthy in its DNA at the sight of anything resembling the classical left. Comfort level with a Bertolt Brecht and Arthur Miller is confined to Broadway shows. Little wonder Bernie Sanders was grounded by the Democratic Establishment when he was miles ahead in the race.

In the French campaign, the communist Jean-Luc Melenchon surged with lightening speed, but the French public was witness to his brilliant presentation only towards the end of the campaign. Imagine where he might have been had a viscerally anti-Left media placed the spotlight on him earlier. Even so, he got 20 percent of the first round votes as against Le Pen’s 21 and Macron’s 23 percent.

All sorts of calculations are afoot: if 90 percent of Le Pen’s supporters turned out but only 65 of Macron’s were mobilized, she would win.

The trophy for prescience on the US elections clearly belonged to the filmmaker Michael Moore: “This election is only about who gets who out to vote, who gets the most rabid supporters, the mind of candidate who gets people out of bed at 5.00 am on Election Day.”

Moore added: “So many people have given up on the system because the system has given up on them. They know it is all bullshit: politics, politicians, elections. People want to tear down establishments.” And Macron sadly, is “the” establishment in very thin disguise.

In an insightful piece, Ross Douthat wrote in The New York Times that Le Pen has with great deliberation distanced herself from the anti-Semitism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. This brings her closer to the middle.

According to Douthat, “Nobody seriously doubts Le Pen’s competence, her command of policy, her ability to serve as president without turning the office into a Reality TV thunderdrome.” Trump’s inability to master his own turbulent emotions is not an issue with his Gallic counterpart.

In the US, the media (except Fox News) threw its total weight behind Clinton. It had egg on its face. The French media, likewise, is supporting Macron to the hilt. In our perverse times, is that not a good omen for Le Pen?[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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India summons Ukrainian envoy after ships with Indian crew attacked in Black Sea

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India has summoned the Ukrainian Ambassador after two merchant vessels carrying Indian crew were attacked in the Black Sea, raising concerns over the safety of Indians working in the conflict zone.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) described the incidents as a matter of serious concerns and conveyed India’s position directly to the Ukrainian envoy.

According to the MEA, the attacks took place amid the ongoing Russia-Ukrainian war, where commercial shipping has increasingly come under threat due to military operations. Although no deaths have been reported, several Indian seafarers were on board the affected vessels, prompting the government to seek immediate clarification from Ukraine and stress the need to ensure their safety.

During the meeting, the MEA reiterated that merchant ships engaged in commercial trade and civilian crew members must not become targets during armed conflict. India urged Ukraine to take all possible steps to prevent such incidents and to uphold international maritime law, which protects civilian shipping operating in international waters.

The ministry said it is in constant contact with Indian missions abroad, shipping companies, and maritime authorities to monitor the condition of Indian crew members. Officials have assured that diplomatic and consular assistance for the crew.

The attack have once again highlighted the dangers faced by thousands of Indian seafarers employed on international cargo vessels operating in conflict-affected regions. The continuing war has disrupted shipping routes in the Black Sea, creating risks for commercial trade and the safety of multinational crews.

The latest diplomatic move reflects India’s consistent position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While maintaining relations with both countries, India has repeatedly called for dialogue, a peaceful resolution to the conflict, and the protection of civilians and commercial vessels under international law.

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US shooting: Seattle food festival shooting leaves 2 dead, 5 injured near Space Needle

Two people were killed and five others injured after gunfire erupted during Seattle’s annual Bite of Seattle food festival near the Space Needle. Police have launched an investigation.

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At least two people were killed and five others were injured after a shooting broke out during the annual Bite of Seattle food festival in Seattle, United States, on Sunday. The incident took place near the city’s iconic Space Needle, with authorities launching an investigation into the attack.

According to police, the shooting occurred at Seattle Center while the venue was hosting the popular Bite of Seattle festival, which features hundreds of local food vendors and live music performances. Officials said it was not immediately clear whether anyone had been taken into custody.

The Seattle Police Department said in a post on X that officers were responding to reports of multiple shooting victims and urged people to stay away from the area as the investigation continued.

Shooting erupted during crowded food festival

The gunfire was reported at around 6 pm local time inside Seattle Center, where large crowds had gathered for the annual festival. Emergency responders rushed to the scene, and the injured victims were taken to Harborview Medical Center for treatment, according to media reports.

The festival was underway when the shooting occurred, triggering panic among attendees as people fled the area seeking safety.

Video captures panic after gunfire

Videos circulating on social media appear to capture the moments after shots rang out, with people seen running through the venue amid the chaos.

Eyewitnesses told local broadcaster KOMO that they heard around seven to eight gunshots before crowds began scattering in different directions.

Police have not yet released details about a possible suspect or the motive behind the shooting. The investigation remains ongoing.

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Trump says Iran getting more serious in talks, no decision yet on major strikes

Donald Trump says Iran is becoming more serious in negotiations with the US but insists no decision has been taken on launching major military strikes against Tehran.

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Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump has said he has not yet decided whether to authorise major military strikes against Iran, stating that Tehran has become “more serious” in its negotiations with Washington even as tensions between the two countries remain high.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday, Trump said discussions with Iran were continuing and suggested diplomatic efforts were showing signs of progress.

“We’re talking to them right now. I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by,” Trump said, adding that no final decision had been taken on launching military action.

Trump says diplomacy remains an option

Trump said the United States remained prepared for military action if required but indicated that ongoing talks could still lead to an agreement.

“We’re locked and loaded and ready to go. But we’re talking to them, so I think while we’re talking, we’ll see what comes of it. I believe they’re very serious. They should be,” he said.

The US President also warned that Iran would face a “much higher level” of strikes if negotiations failed, while reiterating that preventing Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon remained his key red line.

The United States has said its military operations are aimed at preventing Iran from closing the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, has carried out retaliatory strikes on US bases, with four American service members reported killed.

Reports claim Trump discussed large-scale military operation

Trump’s remarks came after media reports suggested he met senior advisers to discuss the possibility of a large-scale military operation against Iran. Another report said he was considering a “massive attack”, although Trump did not confirm those reports during his interaction with journalists.

He also acknowledged that the prolonged conflict, which he had earlier expected to last only a few weeks, was approaching its fifth month and had become a political challenge ahead of the US midterm elections scheduled for November.

Trump issues warning over support for Iran

Trump also addressed reports claiming that Russia and China were providing intelligence or military support to Iran. He said both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had assured him they would not arm Tehran.

“I think they wouldn’t want to have me disappointed,” Trump said.

In a separate post on his Truth Social platform, Trump warned Moscow and Beijing against supplying weapons to Iran, saying such a move would not be in their interests.

He further stated that Xi had assured him during their meeting in Beijing in May that China would not provide weapons to Iran, while Putin had conveyed a similar position despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.

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