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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Does Emmanuel Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Hillary Clinton’s? Only time will provide the correct answer

By Saeed Naqvi

Accustomed either to isolation or global dominance, the US has in recent years been playing a third role. Ever since its power diminished following the 2008 meltdown, it finds itself running around to block political forces which are ascendant everywhere almost independent of its authority.

Brexit happened despite the US. The country itself has a President it did not want. And now, the weight of its establishment is behind the centrist banker, Emmanuel Macron in France. But will that suffice to keep the ultranationalist Marine Le Pen at bay? The falcon cannot see the falconer.

Electoral eruptions are taking place everywhere almost in defiance of American will. In some instances, it is difficult to fathom what possible interest the US might have had in a certain outcome until the truth suddenly leaps out of the thicket, in sharp silhouette.

Why, for instance, would the CIA exert every muscle to support the Right Wing Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador, a country of 16 million people? In the event, a rank Leftist with a menacing name, Lenin Moreno, won.

World affairs these days are sometimes like a game of billiards. That roughly is the effect of Lenin Moreno’s victory in Quito. The consequence of this outcome is that Julian Assange, who controls the nightmare called Wikileaks, now cannot be dispatched to Sweden for trial. He can live for the next few years in the comfort of the Ecuador Embassy in London. That clearly is an affront to the US establishment.

Worse maybe on its way in Mexico, Monroe doctrine or no Monroe doctrine. Come the 2018 elections, President Enrique Nieto will by all accounts be hit for a six, to be replaced by Leftist Lopez Obrador, if not something more radical. The “Building the wall” rhetoric is not the only humiliation that has registered with the Mexican electorate.

So, scramble CIA; reversal in Mexico has to be averted at all costs just as one has to be speeded up in Venezuela.

You may sail the world’s most powerful Armada to threaten Kim Jong-un, but every school boy in Seoul knows that US troops in Panmunjom and at nearby Okinawa Island would be exposed to even hand carried ordnance in the unlikely event of hostilities.

Then why all this bluster on the part of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Vice-President Mike Pence and President Trump himself? The US has patronized many corrupt regimes in Seoul, but the disgrace in which President Park Geun-hye had to leave office has left South Koreans shattered. Is the US influence with the regime that comes in after May 9 elections about to plummet?

Is all this muscle flexing, then mixing hot and cold (Trump says he would meet Kim Jong-un), designed to somehow psyche Korean voting intentions? South Korea is not exempt from anti-Americanism. An outcome conditioned by this factor will clearly be advantageous to China and Russia.

The global establishment is on sixes and sevens on which way the cookie might crumble in France. At the outset, Macron seemed a clever idea, responding to the universal quest for something new, different from the established parties. But as the date of elections approaches, the idea begins to look too clever by half.

A 39-year-old, married to a grandmother, branches out with his own party, En Marche, or March Ahead, has considerable novelty attached to it. But on close scrutiny he is a Rothschild banker, a former member of the most unpopular Francois Hollande government. Establishment to the core. old wine in new bottle. Le Pen tattooed him with punches on that count in the TV debate the other night.

Suddenly imagination transports me to that Dumbo Loft under the Brooklyn Bridge on the evening of November 8. Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner. It was an impressive assembly of World Bankers, State Department officials, artists, journalists, friends Saeed Raza and Nusrat Durrani from Lucknow (to underscore my parochialism), all eager to celebrate a Clinton victory. But we all know what happened. (For the rest of the drama read my November 10 blog.)

Does Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Clinton’s? The American establishment shows traces of Joseph McCarthy in its DNA at the sight of anything resembling the classical left. Comfort level with a Bertolt Brecht and Arthur Miller is confined to Broadway shows. Little wonder Bernie Sanders was grounded by the Democratic Establishment when he was miles ahead in the race.

In the French campaign, the communist Jean-Luc Melenchon surged with lightening speed, but the French public was witness to his brilliant presentation only towards the end of the campaign. Imagine where he might have been had a viscerally anti-Left media placed the spotlight on him earlier. Even so, he got 20 percent of the first round votes as against Le Pen’s 21 and Macron’s 23 percent.

All sorts of calculations are afoot: if 90 percent of Le Pen’s supporters turned out but only 65 of Macron’s were mobilized, she would win.

The trophy for prescience on the US elections clearly belonged to the filmmaker Michael Moore: “This election is only about who gets who out to vote, who gets the most rabid supporters, the mind of candidate who gets people out of bed at 5.00 am on Election Day.”

Moore added: “So many people have given up on the system because the system has given up on them. They know it is all bullshit: politics, politicians, elections. People want to tear down establishments.” And Macron sadly, is “the” establishment in very thin disguise.

In an insightful piece, Ross Douthat wrote in The New York Times that Le Pen has with great deliberation distanced herself from the anti-Semitism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. This brings her closer to the middle.

According to Douthat, “Nobody seriously doubts Le Pen’s competence, her command of policy, her ability to serve as president without turning the office into a Reality TV thunderdrome.” Trump’s inability to master his own turbulent emotions is not an issue with his Gallic counterpart.

In the US, the media (except Fox News) threw its total weight behind Clinton. It had egg on its face. The French media, likewise, is supporting Macron to the hilt. In our perverse times, is that not a good omen for Le Pen?[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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US plans proposed $103,265 H-1B fee hike, Indians among those affected

The US is planning to propose a $103,265 H-1B visa fee, along with possible changes to F-1 OPT and the H-1B grace period.

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The US Department of Homeland Security is planning to propose a major increase in the H-1B visa fee to $103,265, according to a notice posted in the Federal Register on Monday.

The proposed changes could significantly increase the cost of employing foreign nationals in the United States if they are implemented. They could also affect students moving from universities into employment and employers sponsoring H-1B workers.

The proposals are particularly significant for Indians, who accounted for 71 per cent of H-1B beneficiaries among the petitions approved by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services in 2024.

Proposed H-1B and OPT fees

The Trump administration is planning new fees related to the H-1B and F-1 Optional Practical Training (OPT) programmes.

According to immigration services firm Fragomen, the proposed rules have already moved through the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

Fragomen said a proposed rule concerning an OPT fee was sent to the OMB on August 20 and was under review. A separate proposal concerning a fee on certain H-1B petitions was received by the OMB and cleared review on August 19.

The contents of the proposed regulations have not yet been officially released.

Fragomen also noted that the Department of Homeland Security could propose a $100,000 fee on OPT applications. The proposed H-1B fee could also be linked to ongoing legal proceedings concerning the administration’s previously blocked $100,000 H-1B petition fee.

Indians account for over 70% of H-1B beneficiaries

The proposed fee increase could have a substantial impact on Indian nationals because they make up the largest share of H-1B beneficiaries.

US Citizenship and Immigration Services approved 399,402 H-1B petitions in 2024, with Indian-born beneficiaries accounting for 71 per cent of them.

If the proposed regulations are eventually implemented, the higher costs could affect foreign workers as well as US employers that sponsor H-1B employees.

More than 5.2 million people of Indian origin live in the United States, according to recent estimates based on US Census data.

Proposed end to 60-day H-1B grace period

The potential fee increases come alongside another proposed immigration change affecting H-1B workers.

Earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security proposed eliminating the existing 60-day grace period for certain H-1B workers whose employment ends before their authorised period of stay expires.

Under the proposal, affected workers and their dependants could be required to leave the US almost immediately if the regulation is finalised.

The proposed change would remove the existing 60-day grace period for certain workers and their dependants when the employment supporting their immigration status ends before their authorised stay expires.

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Hindu family killed in Bangladesh, suspects stayed overnight after killings

Two suspects have been arrested in the killing of a Hindu family of four in Bangladesh’s Rangpur. Police said they allegedly stayed overnight inside the victims’ home after the murders.

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Four members of a Hindu family were killed inside their locked home in Bangladesh’s Rangpur city, with police saying two neighbours remained inside the house overnight after the killings.

The victims were identified as retired schoolteacher Ganapati Chakraborty, 65, his wife Pritilata Chakraborty, 50, their daughter Agami Chakraborty Prarthi, 23, and their 12-year-old son Priyam Chakraborty.

Their bodies were recovered from their home on Saturday. Police said the victims’ faces had been burned using an inflammable substance.

According to police, the killings took place late on Thursday night after two neighbours, also Hindu, allegedly went to the rooftop of the Chakraborty family’s two-storey house in the Machuapara area to consume yaba, a methamphetamine-based drug.

Two suspects arrested

Rangpur Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mohammad Abdul Mabud said two maternal cousins, Siddhartha Das, 19, and Mugdha Das, 23, had been arrested in connection with the killings.

Police said the two men allegedly went to the family’s rooftop to consume yaba. After hearing noises upstairs, Ganapati Chakraborty went to check what was happening.

According to the police account, the suspects allegedly used a towel that Chakraborty was carrying to strangle him.

When his wife followed him after hearing the commotion, she was allegedly attacked and killed on the staircase.

The couple’s daughter also came out of her room to find out what was happening and was allegedly attacked. Police said the two suspects struggled with her for several minutes before allegedly strangling her with a rope.

The couple’s 12-year-old son was subsequently killed because the suspects allegedly feared that he could identify them, police said.

Suspects allegedly stayed overnight

Police said they believe the two suspects did not immediately leave the house after the killings.

According to the police account, the suspects allegedly stayed inside the home overnight and left the following day when the streets were relatively empty during Jummah, or Friday prayers.

During their alleged stay, the suspects reportedly bathed inside the house and took dates and cucumbers from the family’s refrigerator.

Police also said the suspects consumed drugs, which were found on a table inside the house.

Before leaving, the two men allegedly opened cupboards and drawers and scattered clothes and other belongings around the home in an apparent attempt to mislead investigators into believing that a robbery had taken place.

Gold jewellery allegedly looted

Police said gold jewellery was allegedly taken from the victims’ home. Investigators also found evidence suggesting that an attempt had been made to test a gold bangle using fire.

According to the source text, Siddhartha runs a fish business, while Mugdha works as a goldsmith.

Police said the two suspects have confessed to the killings and that gold jewellery allegedly looted from the house has been recovered.

The family’s two mobile phones were also allegedly destroyed by submerging them in water mixed with detergent, police said.

Investigators have seized date pits from inside the house and are conducting DNA testing as they continue to investigate the case.

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India calls US religious freedom body biased over RSS sanctions demand

India has criticised USCIRF as biased and lacking credibility after the US body urged sanctions against RSS members ahead of Mohan Bhagwat’s New York visit.

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India has criticised the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) after the US body called for sanctions against members of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) ahead of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s scheduled visit to the United States.

External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal described USCIRF as a “biased organisation” and said it lacked credibility.

“It is a biased organisation. I would say that we should keep away from such organisations as they have their own agenda and lack any credibility,” Jaiswal said.

He also accused the body of making “disparaging and inflammatory remarks” about India and said the USCIRF was unlikely to engage with the country’s “pluralistic framework” or acknowledge the harmonious coexistence of its diverse communities.

USCIRF seeks sanctions against RSS members

USCIRF chair Asif Mahmood opposed Mohan Bhagwat’s upcoming visit to the US and called on the American government to impose sanctions against the RSS. Bhagwat is scheduled to visit New York on August 29.

The US body also urged Washington not to extend diplomatic courtesies to RSS leaders. It described the RSS as an “umbrella organisation” and alleged that its sub-groups had “perpetrated attacks on religious minorities”.

USCIRF said the US government should instead focus on imposing sanctions on RSS members found responsible for freedom of religious belief violations.

USCIRF’s earlier criticism of India

In its annual report released in March, USCIRF criticised India over alleged violations of religious freedom and recommended targeted sanctions against individuals and entities, including the RSS and Research and Analysis Wing.

The commission also recommended designating India as a “country of particular concern”.

USCIRF is an independent, bipartisan US federal government agency that makes policy recommendations to the US President, Secretary of State and Congress and tracks their implementation.

Hindu advocacy group criticises USCIRF

US-based Hindu advocacy group HinduPACT also condemned USCIRF members’ public opposition to Bhagwat’s New York visit.

Ajay Shah, founder and chair of HinduPACT, accused the commission of having “disgraced its mandate” and alleged that its chair’s remarks reflected an anti-Hindu narrative.

Shah also criticised groups including CAIR, IAMC and HfHR, alleging that they had portrayed Hindu self-assertion as extremism.

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