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Analysis: Bhupesh Baghel is the sole reason for Congress loss

Bhupesh Baghel ran an administration devoid of any human touch, principles or planning, rough shodding his way over every opposition within and outside based on a massive mandate obtained in 2018 which he appropriated as his own doing.

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By Neeraj Mishra

In the end, the voter understood Bhupesh Baghel’s duplicity better than us, observers, reporters and analysts. Baghel’s alms to the farmers in four instalments every year was aimed as a cover-up for his massive corruption and coercive ways. He ran an administration devoid of any human touch, principles or planning, rough shodding his way over every opposition within and outside based on a massive mandate obtained in 2018 which he appropriated as his own doing.

His discarded, embarrassed teammates grinned and bore it. Those who joined his gang (not government) prospered but have all been put to sleep by the electorate enraged at a pretentious “son of the soil” who allegedly wanted a cut in everything from Mahadev App, Excise sales, Mining to officer postings.

Baghel’s assumption that since he had fed the farmers an extra Rs 500, paid for their cow dung, and sweet-talked them about chhattisgariya pride, he had achieved an invincible position. His boasts of 75-plus seats reminded everyone of the last Congress chief minister Ajit Jogi, who had similar pretensions.

At least, Jogi worked hard and with a purpose. Incidentally, Baghel was a minister in his cabinet, foisted on him by a previous arrangement with Digvijaya Singh that his Madhya Pradesh cabinet members would be retained, always called Baghel a “ganda aadmi” (dirty man). This personal rivalry led Baghel to cancel the entire Jogi family’s ST certificate once in power, which in the end has left the beleaguered party with no national-level leadership among the tribals. He similarly chucked out his one-time benefactor Arvind Netam from the party.

Kakka means home breaker

In all family feuds over property, it’s usually the kakka (younger uncle) and his sons who ruin a family’s peace. Bhupesh, who coined the epithet Kakka for himself, and was fond of saying Kakka abhi Zinda hai, managed to drive a wedge in the Gandhi household itself.

He refused to abdicate when Rahul Gandhi asked him following his promise of 2.5 years to TS Singhdeo as CM. He instead clung on to Priyanka with unconcealed flattery who became his saviour. He even welcomed her with rose petals covering her one km path during the AICC session in Raipur in February earlier this year.

He was made in charge of Assam and Uttar Pradesh elections and Raman Singh alleged that he was Priyanka’s ATM. Many Congressmen close to Baghel even joke that he pays Priyanka’s EMI. Jokes apart, Baghel did manage to annoy Rahul and Sonia with his Priyanka shield.

ED cases in Chhattisgarh

Two IAS officers, who joined the Baghel gang, are in jail. His closest aides are incarcerated and several more have been identified by the BJP and are likely to face the music in coming days. The Congress lost 17 SC/ST seats paving the way for the BJP to grab them back. The BJP which had only 3 seats out of 39 reserved seats, now has 21. This is where the battle was lost.

Baghel’s running battle with tribal PCC president Markam and foisting of his dummy Deepak Baij just ahead of elections ended in loss for both tribal leaders.

OBC hoax

Baghel pulled wool over the eyes of the Gandhis by projecting himself as an OBC leader. The learned Gandhi siblings, of course, don’t know what or who is an OBC or whether it can be treated as a block. The BJP called his hoax of Kurmi leadership and separated the Sahus from the OBC stack.

Result, a labourer from Bemetara, Ishwar Sahu was given the ticket in Saja seat and he defeated the loathsome figure of Ravindra Chaubey, who was Baghel’s closest ally along with Mohammad Akbar in the cabinet. Both lost by margins of over 40,000 votes. It only means the voter was watching and registering everything.

Opportunity

Baghel was a leader from Durg district who clung onto bigger names like Vasudev Chandrakar and Khubchand Baghel because of his Kurmi caste. He was given the transport portfolio by Digvijaya Singh in undivided Madhya Pradesh but the department was run directly by him. He got his opportunity in Chhattisgarh because of the tragic incident of Jeeram Valley when the Naxalites shot down the entire senior leadership of Congress, from VC Shukla, Nand Kumar Patel to Mahendra Karma. Baghel and TS Singhdeo prospered because the last of the senior leaders like Satyanarain Sharma and Charandas Mahant had been sidelined by Ajit Jogi. Baghel was smart enough to then push Jogi out of the Congress once he became PCC president in 2014.

Government

In saddle, Baghel created a fear psychosis among bureaucrats. His first target as CM were Principal Secretary to Raman Singh, Aman Singh and his EOW chief Mukesh Gupta. He suspended and then terminated Gupta, filed cases against Aman Singh and Raman Singh’s son Abhishek Singh. Later, he posted pliable officers in EOW to threaten and coerce senior bureaucrats.

One of them was ADGP GP Singh, who was raided by his own EOW department, and later forced to retire. Journalists were threatened and raided, arrested and even their houses bulldozed. One of them, an ex-Aaj Tak reporter, is now behind bars with an NDPS case slapped on him because he dared to question bureaucrats close to Baghel.

If anything, Baghel’s five-year reign has proved that one needs good people and officers to run a government. He had none. Not even one. There were two people from the districts, one ex-cartoonist from a local newspaper accused of making and distributing sex CDs, one pretentious socialist-turned Congressi local editor crowned by an SDM level officer with a motor mouth.

She is now cooling her heels in ED custody but when she ran the show, abusing IAS officers was her favourite pastime. This priceless team put together a policy called-Narwa, Ghurwa, Badi—which they thought was a brilliant idea to change the lives of villagers. It didn’t change anything but culminated in the only creditable policy of Baghel sarkar in Rajiv Gandhi bonus of Rs 500 per quintal for the farmers.

But the lot enjoyed unbridled power with novice district collectors dancing to their tune and everyone from Patwari and Hawaldar to Chief Secretary to DGP collecting and paying cuts. At least that’s what the ED teams found. Those cases are now likely to gain speed.

The Dhebar chapter

The Dhebar family from Raipur became his strongest ally. It is believed they also became his book keepers. He managed to install Aijaz Dhebar as Mayor of Raipur through clever manipulation of indirect voting. In a direct vote, Aijaz, a one-time NSUI president, who would possibly have remained a corporator from a Muslim locality all his life.

This emboldened the Dhebars and they are accused of swindling the state exchequer of Rs 2000 crore by the ED. Aijaz’s elder brother was incarcerated for a year and is now out on bail but the ED cases are still on. The Congress’ wipe-out from all seven seats in Raipur district is credited to Dhebars uncontrolled loot of public funds and land. Again the electorate was watching and registering everything.

Women’s vote

If one were to pin Baghel on one single reason for the Congress’ devastating loss, it would be how he cheated women voters. It’s not the promises or enticement by the BJP, it’s the fraud perpetrated on them by Baghel that riled women voters, who outnumber male voters overall in the state.

What was the fraud? Baghel and Singhdeo had promised Prohibition as soon as they came to power but instead the whole excise department became a milch cow. The excise revenue rose from Rs 4000 crore in 2018 to Rs 8000 crore in 2022-23. An equal amount is believed to have been made illegally and shared by many every year.

It had become so bad that during the Covid years, liquor was delivered to the doorstep by government vehicles. An entire generation has been ruined by this senselessness and women folk noted this with venom in their heart against the perpetrators as they watched their homes and men folk going to waste.

Scams

There is an endless list of scams from the latest Mahadev App betting racket to coal mafia, sand mafia, mining mafia, transport mafia, PSC appointments scam, teachers recruitment scam, police promotion scam to transfer and posting deals.

All this could have been taken up by the BJP on a warfooting during elections and there were questions raised over their leaders’ intentions when it was not done over the past five years. But eventually they relied on the undercurrent of anger among women and the duplicitous nature of Bhupesh ka Bharosa to see them through.

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Late-March western disturbance brings 1,000-km rain band across India, Pakistan and Afghanistan

An unusual western disturbance has created a 1,000-km rain band, bringing widespread storms, rainfall and hail across parts of India and neighbouring countries.

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Weather

An unusual weather system is currently impacting large parts of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, bringing widespread thunderstorms, gusty winds, rainfall and even hailstorms at a time when summer conditions typically begin to set in.

The ongoing event is being driven by an active western disturbance that has formed a nearly straight, linear low-pressure trough stretching about 1,000 kilometres—from Afghanistan, across Pakistan, and into India. This formation is considered atypical, as most western disturbances usually follow a curved path.

Western disturbances are generally extratropical systems originating near the Mediterranean region and are more common during winter months, when they bring snowfall and cold weather to northern India. However, this system stands out both for its timing in late March and its distinct structure.

Widespread weather activity across regions

The system is associated with an upper-air cyclonic circulation over northern Pakistan, which is leading to widespread thunderstorms and winds ranging between 40 and 80 kmph across northwest India. Isolated hailstorms and light-to-moderate rainfall or snowfall have also been reported.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall has already occurred in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, while southern states including Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have received significant showers. Hailstorm activity has also been observed in multiple regions.

Meteorological conditions indicate that the western disturbance includes a trough in the middle and upper atmospheric levels. This is interacting with several low-level cyclonic circulations over regions such as north Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Haryana, northeast Assam, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, intensifying weather activity.

System likely to weaken, another disturbance ahead

The current disturbance is expected to remain active over the Western Himalayas and adjoining plains through Friday, after which its intensity is likely to decrease.

However, forecasts suggest that another weaker western disturbance may approach the region around March 22, potentially bringing further weather changes.

Moisture sources behind the system

The primary moisture feeding this system originates from evaporation over multiple water bodies, including the Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, Black Sea, and the Persian Gulf.

As the system moves eastward, it gathers additional moisture from the Arabian Sea. This moisture is further enhanced due to orographic lifting along the Himalayas. Simultaneously, existing troughs and cyclonic features over regions such as Gujarat and the Mannar area are contributing to increased low-level convergence, leading to intensified rainfall and storm activity.

Delhi-NCR sees cooler conditions and rainfall

In Delhi-NCR, light-to-moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and winds of 30–50 kmph is expected to continue until Friday. Daytime temperatures are likely to remain between 25 and 28 degrees Celsius, which is below the seasonal average.

Why late-March disturbances are uncommon

Climatologically, western disturbances are most frequent between December and February, with India typically experiencing four to six such systems per month during winter.

By late March, their frequency usually declines sharply as the jet stream weakens and shifts northward. Historically, only one or two such systems occur during this period each year.

However, recent trends suggest a gradual extension of the western disturbance season into April. Experts attribute this to changes in atmospheric patterns, including stronger subtropical jet streams and broader climate variability.

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Mamata Banerjee slams poll body over officials’ transfer, calls move unprecedented

Mamata Banerjee has criticised the Election Commission for transferring senior officials ahead of West Bengal elections, alleging bias and procedural overreach.

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Mamata Banerjee

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has sharply criticised the Election Commission of India over the transfer of senior state officials ahead of the assembly elections, alleging bias and procedural overreach.

In a strongly worded letter to Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, Banerjee expressed “deep shock” at the poll panel’s functioning, stating that it had “crossed all boundaries of decency and constitutional propriety.”

Concerns over transfers and alleged bias

The chief minister objected to what she described as “unilateral” transfers of key officials, including the chief secretary, home secretary, director general of police, and several district-level officers. According to her, these decisions were taken without citing any violations of electoral rules or the Model Code of Conduct.

Banerjee further alleged that the Commission had shown “apparent bias” since the beginning of the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, claiming that repeated concerns raised by the state government had been ignored.

She also questioned the timing of the transfers, noting that district election officers were shifted during an ongoing revision process, which she suggested could affect administrative continuity and pending cases.

Supreme Court reference and governance concerns

Referring to her government’s move to approach the Supreme Court of India, Banerjee said the court had acknowledged the concerns and issued directions that are currently being implemented.

The chief minister warned that the removal of senior officials at short notice could disrupt governance, law and order, and disaster preparedness, particularly during the storm-prone months of March and April.

She also criticised the deployment of state police officers as observers in other poll-bound regions, calling it “arbitrary” and a “misuse of authority.”

Warning on federal structure and democracy

Describing the decisions as “biased, hasty and unilateral,” Banerjee said such actions undermine cooperative federalism and could create conditions resembling “indirect central rule.”

She urged the Commission to reconsider its decisions, warning that such steps are “deeply concerning” for a healthy democratic process.

Elections to the 294-member West Bengal assembly are scheduled to be held in two phases on April 23 and April 29, with counting set for May 4.

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AIADMK-BJP seat-sharing talks to be finalised soon, says Edappadi K Palaniswami after Amit Shah meet

AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami says seat-sharing talks with BJP are in final stages and will conclude within days ahead of Tamil Nadu 2026 elections.

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Amit shah

Signalling momentum ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, Edappadi K Palaniswami on Friday said seat-sharing talks with the Bharatiya Janata Party would be finalised within four days following his meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi.

Palaniswami, who serves as the general secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, expressed confidence that negotiations would be concluded smoothly based on a “give-and-take” formula focused on winnability. He also took a swipe at the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, suggesting delays in its own alliance discussions.

Union Minister Piyush Goyal is expected to visit Chennai soon, further accelerating alliance-building efforts. The AIADMK is also preparing to release its election manifesto within a week.

Likely seat-sharing formula emerges

While Palaniswami did not reveal specific numbers, sources indicate the AIADMK is aiming to contest around 165 seats. The remaining seats could be distributed among allies, including the BJP, Pattali Makkal Katchi, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam led by T T V Dhinakaran, and the Tamil Maanila Congress.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP and PMK had contested 20 and 23 seats respectively, securing four and five wins. The revised formula suggests a recalibration of alliance strengths ahead of the high-stakes 2026 polls.

‘Delhi visits necessary for coordination’

Responding to criticism over his frequent visits to the national capital, Palaniswami defended his outreach to BJP leadership. He said such meetings were necessary given the busy schedules of senior leaders like Amit Shah, who are handling elections across multiple states.

“I have come to meet Amit Shah twice, as he is busy with elections in five states,” he said, underlining the need for coordination at the national level.

No alliance with Vijay’s TVK

Dismissing speculation about new alliances, Palaniswami ruled out any talks with actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.

“Neither we nor TVK held talks,” he stated, indicating that the electoral contest would largely remain between the AIADMK-led and DMK-led fronts.

Criticism of DMK and internal damage control

Targeting the DMK government, Palaniswami alleged a deterioration in law and order, pointing to rising crimes against women and corruption. He also accused the government of failing to implement key welfare schemes.

At the same time, he sought to contain recent controversies involving AIADMK leaders, stating that former ministers who made objectionable remarks had acknowledged their mistakes and apologised.

High stakes for AIADMK and Palaniswami

The 2026 Assembly election is being seen as a crucial test for both the AIADMK and Palaniswami. Since the death of former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, the party has faced a series of electoral setbacks, including the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 Assembly polls.

The AIADMK had previously allied with the BJP in 2019 and 2021, a partnership often viewed as challenging in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both parties contested separately but failed to secure victories.

For Palaniswami, the upcoming election represents a critical opportunity to establish his leadership and revive the party’s political standing.

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