As the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 concluded with record voter turnout, multiple exit polls released on Tuesday indicated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to return to power in the state. The final results will be declared on November 14.
NDA ahead across multiple surveys
According to at least eight exit polls, the NDA is projected to secure between 130 and 167 seats in the 243-member assembly. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav in alliance with Congress, is expected to finish second with 70 to 108 seats. Most surveys have shown the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor failing to make a breakthrough, with projections ranging between zero and four seats.
Surveys by Chanakya Strategies, P-Marg, JVC, People’s Insight, and others consistently show a strong lead for the NDA. P-Marg’s exit poll projected 142–162 seats for the NDA, while JVC gave the alliance 135–150. Chanakya predicted 130–138 seats, while People’s Insight projected a comfortable win for the ruling alliance.
RJD-Congress alliance struggles to close gap
The opposition coalition—comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties—appears unable to replicate its strong 2015 performance, when RJD had emerged as the single largest party. In this election, the Mahagathbandhan’s projected tally ranges from 80 to 108 seats, according to various polls.
Key NDA leaders such as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and senior JD(U) minister Bijendra Prasad Yadav are contesting from their traditional bastions, while RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav aims to break the two-decade-long dominance of Nitish Kumar’s leadership.
Record voter turnout marks the election
Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14% across both phases, with districts such as Kishanganj, Katihar, and Purnia witnessing over 70% polling. Voting for the first phase was held on November 6, and the second phase covered 122 constituencies on November 11.
Exit poll accuracy in question
In 2020, most exit polls had predicted a close contest, with some forecasting a win for Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD. However, the NDA eventually secured a majority with 125 seats. The accuracy of this year’s exit polls will be tested when votes are counted on November 14.