The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 is heading into its most thrilling phase yet, with playoff dreams hanging by a thread for several teams. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) strengthened their qualification prospects with a commanding six-wicket victory against Delhi Capitals (DC) on Sunday, a result that not only lifted them to the top of the points table but also pushed their playoff probability to an impressive 88%.

Following RCB’s win, the latest playoff qualification odds have come into focus, showing a mixed bag of fortunes for various franchises as per a Monte Carlo Simulation analysis.

RCB, GT, and DC lead the race; MI and PBKS in the hunt

RCB are almost certain to progress, likely finishing the league stage with 18 to 20 points, translating to nine or ten wins. Gujarat Titans (GT) are close behind with an 82% chance, banking on their games in hand to secure 16 to 18 points.

Delhi Capitals, despite their home loss to RCB, maintain a healthy 70% chance of qualifying. They are expected to close the league with around 16 points, thanks to their consistent performances earlier this season.

Mumbai Indians (MI), currently enjoying a winning streak, have a 65% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their fate largely hinges on the outcome of closely contested matches in the final rounds.

Punjab Kings (PBKS) stand at a 50% probability after a mid-season dip. Though their strong start has been offset by recent setbacks, they remain in contention.

Tough road ahead for LSG, KKR, SRH, RR, and CSK

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have only a 25% chance to qualify, with a near-flawless run needed in their remaining fixtures. Defending champions Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) find themselves with just a 10% chance, relying heavily on other results.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have seen their playoff hopes dwindle to 5% and 3% respectively after a string of defeats. Meanwhile, Chennai Super Kings (CSK), under MS Dhoni’s leadership, cling to a slim 2% chance, with even maximum wins possibly falling short.

Simulation methodology

The projections were drawn from simulating the remaining IPL 2025 matches 10,000 times using a Monte Carlo method. Each team’s final points tally was determined by simulating win probabilities, factoring in tie-breakers like net run rate (NRR) where necessary.

Former Pakistan pacer and iconic cricketer Wasim Akram recently narrated a remarkable story involving Bollywood superstar and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) co-owner Shah Rukh Khan. Sharing the memory during a conversation with VU Sports, Akram highlighted Khan’s unwavering support towards his team during the 2012 Indian Premier League (IPL) season.

Akram, who served as KKR’s bowling coach from 2010 to 2016, revealed that ahead of an important knockout match, the team faced a hectic travel schedule that left little time for rest. Concerned about player fatigue, Akram approached Shah Rukh Khan with a request for better travel arrangements.

According to Akram, Shah Rukh Khan immediately understood the urgency and within just one hour arranged a full Boeing aircraft exclusively for the team. This gesture ensured the players could reach Kolkata comfortably and be well-rested ahead of the crucial match. Notably, the 2012 season turned out historic for KKR, as they clinched their maiden IPL title after defeating Chennai Super Kings in the final.

Rain forces washout of KKR’s latest match against Punjab Kings

Meanwhile, in the ongoing IPL season, Kolkata Knight Riders faced a setback as their recent match against Punjab Kings was washed out due to heavy rain in Kolkata. Punjab Kings had posted a strong total of 201 for 4, thanks to impressive half-centuries by Prabhsimran Singh and Priyansh Arya.

KKR managed seven runs without loss in their brief chase before a sudden thunderstorm disrupted proceedings around 9:35 pm. Despite the ground staff’s swift efforts to protect the pitch, persistent rain made a restart impossible, leading to the match being officially abandoned at 10:58 pm.

Both teams shared a point each following the no-result. With this, KKR now hold seven points from nine matches and stay at seventh position on the points table, while Punjab Kings moved up to 11 points.

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) welcomed back their fiery pacer Mayank Yadav for the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 showdown against Mumbai Indians at Wankhede Stadium, marking his eagerly awaited return after missing the season’s first nine matches due to injury.

The 22-year-old speedster replaced Shardul Thakur in the playing XI, a surprising move given Thakur’s impressive haul of 12 wickets in nine games. LSG, led by Rishabh Pant, opted to bowl first after winning the toss, banking on Yadav’s raw pace to unsettle Mumbai’s formidable batting lineup.

Yadav’s inclusion follows his stint as an impact substitute in LSG’s previous matches against Rajasthan Royals and Delhi Capitals, where the team opted for Ayush Badoni instead. After a loss to Delhi, Pant explained the cautious approach, noting the management’s intent to let Yadav regain confidence and rhythm. Retained for INR 11 crore ahead of the IPL 2025 auction, Yadav’s return is a major boost for LSG, who are eager to leverage his game-changing potential.

Yadav first turned heads in IPL 2024, consistently breaching 150 kmph and claiming seven wickets in just four matches before an abdominal injury cut his campaign short. His meteoric rise continued with a T20I debut for India against Bangladesh in October 2024, but a subsequent back injury sidelined him, forcing him to miss the domestic white-ball season. Now, fully recovered, Yadav aims to replicate his 2024 heroics and propel LSG’s playoff aspirations.

In the match, Mumbai Indians, asked to bat first, made two changes, introducing Karn Sharma and Corbin Bosch in place of Vignesh Puthur and Mitchell Santner. An intriguing subplot emerged with reports of Ben Stokes spotted at Mumbai Indians’ team hotel, greeted by team officials, sparking speculation about his involvement.

At the toss, Pant emphasized a fresh approach, stating, “We’re in a good space. Take every day as your first and play good cricket.” Mumbai’s Hardik Pandya countered, “It’s about adapting, staying focused, and doing the right things in every IPL game.”