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Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority Until 2019

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Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority Until 2019

~By Saeed Naqvi

Even before elections in Pakistan had taken place the media which articulates the western establishment point of view, like the Economist, had already declared it a “flawed election”; it even screamed “foul play” which the “khaki umpire” (for which read the Army) had rigged.

If you will stand for a mixed metaphor, the “khaki umpire” is, these days, playing the monkey between two cats – the US and China. With Donald Trump and his Deep State apparently engaged in a savage fight to the finish, the balance of advantage must be seen to be with China. But Chinese themselves are keeping their fingers on the China-Pak economic corridor. Imran Khan has expressed reservations on transparency issues. On the other hand, there have been reports that thousands of Pakistan students, who in the past would have been westward bound, have entered Chinese schools of learning. Who knows, this may be the thin end of the wedge.

If the Chinese can decolonize the Pakistani mind to this extent, it must be time for the West to take note. But a sketch that sections of the Army and Imran Khan might be innately anti west can be overdrawn. Yes, Pakistan has choices other than the US which includes Russia, but this does not mean the army will bite the hand that has fed it since its inception.

Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority Until 2019

These are complex times and a durable phenomena like the “West” manifests itself in many forms. After all retired Pakistan armymen, like retirees elsewhere, do keep a steady gaze on post retirement sinecures. A huge opportunity beckons Pakistan retired army officers in Saudi Arabia with its insatiable appetite for a war without end against the Arab world’s poorest country – Yemen.

The new Prime Minister will be pragmatic. He will not seek to impose a moral code on his armed forces. But he will draw some very firm red lines and these red lines will stretch from Pakhtunkhwa right through Afghanistan, the arena of his political baptism and purgatory. That is where he cannot be seen to be striking deals. His political turf will turn to ash if he does.

He should not be seen in the traditional Pathan-Punjabi balance. The brunt of the blowback from the Afghan war was borne by the Pathan region, true, but it was a national catastrophe. Let me explain. Washington twisted Pervez Musharraf’s arm to turn upon those Mujahideen in Afghanistan whom Riyadh, Washington and Islamabad had reared to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. The blowback from the Afghan war singed Pakistan. The Lal Masjid fiasco in Islamabad aggravated an uncontrollable situation. The reverberations from that blowback have not ended yet. Remember, the public outcry was against Musharraf fighting “America’s war” against terrorism. It became all the more shrill when the two brothers controlling Lal Masjid, Ghazi Rashid and Maulana Aziz, led the chorus.

Let me fast forward to the latest American debacle in Syria and its possible impact on the Af-Pak region. Ever since the Russians landed in Syria to fight terrorism, the US, Israel, Saudi bluff has been called. They armed and financed Jabhat al Nusra, Al Qaeda and worse but their town criers amplified these rogue elements as the Free Syrian Army. When almost all the mercenary Islamists had been caught with their trousers down, the existential question arose: what to do with trained terrorists?

When animal lovers in Britain forced an end to the traditional foxhunt, the impulse reached India’s southern hill station of Ootacamund also. The same question arose: what to do with hundreds of pedigree hounds? Good sense dawned and the canines were kept in a deluxe kennel, then distributed among dog lovers. But what do the trainers do with terrorists, trained and tested in action, who have not only tasted blood but have begun to love it? Trained terrorists can only have one use: as assets against any Muslim society the “trainer” wishes to destabilize – Afghanistan, Xinxiang, the Caucasus and so on.

I can quote atleast two recent US Presidents to prove my point. In an interview to Thomas Friedman in August 2014, President Barack Obama made a startling admission. Asked why he had not ordered air attacks against the Islamic State, when it first reared its head, Obama said: “that would have taken the pressure off Nouri al Maliki”, Iraq’s stubbornly anti American, Shia Prime Minister. In other words, the IS advance from Mosul to Baghdad was facilitated to oust Nouri al Maliki, an outcome the US was excitedly waiting for. Maliki had to be punished for the affront of not signing the “Status of Forces agreement” with the US. Eventually Maliki was shown the door.

After having been briefed by the Intelligence Agencies, candidate Donald Trump told Jake Tapper of the CNN: “Where do you think have billions of dollars worth of arms – and cash – gone in the course of our involvement in Syria? To the extremists, ofcourse, I believe so.” He has not budged from this position.

What should worry Imran Khan is the next stage: the transfer of trained terrorists from Syria to Northern Afghanistan. Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei told a Friday congregation in Tehran on January 30. “The US transfer of IS terrorists to Afghanistan is aimed at creating a justification for its (US’s) continued presence in the region.” More recently, Russia’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Morgulov Igor Vladimirovich told a high powered assembly at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi: “IS fighters were being flown to northern Afghanistan”. The Afghan air space is under the control of the US and the government in Kabul. “so who is responsible?” Vladimirovich asked.

Islamabad, Beijing, Moscow are all persuaded that Taleban will have to be part of the solution in Afghanistan. Americans have been marking time with the good Taleban, bad Taleban mantra because they clearly do not have a policy.

The moment is laden with irony for President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul. The emergence of a Pathan in Islamabad should have provided him with comfort. Instead he is having kittens: the Pathan on the other side has an agenda which is totally at cross purposes with Ghani’s. Imran’s agenda would boost his popularity in the country where Ghani, alas, has none. The moral is simple: no sidekick to a foreign power has ever been respected at home.

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US hits Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats near Strait of Hormuz amid peace talks

US Central Command executed targeted strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels near Bandar Abbas, testing a fragile ceasefire even as high-stakes diplomatic talks continue in the region.

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In a major development testing a fragile regional ceasefire, the United States military carried out targeted strikes in southern Iran on Monday. The operation hit missile launch sites and vessels allegedly attempting to lay mines near the crucial Strait of Hormuz, according to statements from the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

The military action took place near Bandar Abbas, a prominent southern port city hosting a primary Iranian naval base. Media reporting indicated that explosions were heard across multiple coastal locations, including Sirik and Jask.

Focus on ‘Self-Defense’ Amid Active Ceasefire

A spokesperson for CENTCOM, Capt. Tim Hawkins, confirmed that the engagement was defensive in nature. “US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” Hawkins stated. He noted that the operational targets included active missile launch sites alongside Iranian boats attempting to emplace naval mines. Despite the escalation, CENTCOM emphasized that it continues to exercise restraint under the parameters of the ongoing ceasefire brokered in early April.

According to media reports, the tactical response was triggered when two Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) boats were detected laying mines in the strategic shipping lane. Additionally, a surface-to-air missile site reportedly targeted American warplanes, prompting US forces to neutralize both the vessels and the missile installations. Media channels citing local updates indicated that four individuals were killed in the strikes, though the complete casualty figures remain unverified.

Diplomatic Dialogue Continues in Parallel

The strikes coincide with a critical phase of diplomatic negotiations aimed at extending the current truce. Top Iranian negotiators traveled to Qatar early this week to discuss a potential 60-day extension of the ceasefire, alongside provisions to keep the Strait of Hormuz fully operational for global trade.

US officials maintain that the military action does not signal an end to the active truce. A senior administration source clarified that the specific operations are “over for now”. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from India, affirmed that diplomatic channels remain open and active. Rubio stated that intensive language discussions regarding the initial documents are ongoing, reiterating that the opening of the strategic strait remains a core objective.

Meanwhile, political leaders in Washington have separately reiterated demands for the secured disposal or international transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles as part of any comprehensive long-term agreement.

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US announces new America First visa schedule to boost business ties with India

During his official state visit to New Delhi, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a new America First visa schedule designed to prioritise business professionals and boost bilateral trade efficiency.

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In a significant development aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation, the United States has introduced a new “America First” visa schedule. The policy update was announced by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his official four-day visit to India. The new schedule is specifically designed to prioritise business professionals who play a key role in fortifying trade and strategic connections between the two nations.

Speaking about the initiative in the national capital, the top US diplomat clarified that the updated framework will not only assist visa applicants but will also significantly enhance operational productivity for the diplomatic mission. “We’re introducing a new America First visa schedule that prioritises business professionals that strengthen these ties,” Rubio stated. He added that the arrangement will enable the system to process applications with greater accuracy, speed, and efficiency.

Focus on Indo-Pacific and regional security

The announcement coincided with high-level discussions between the visiting diplomat and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting, which lasted for over an hour, covered critical areas of bilateral interest, including trade, energy security, strategic technologies, defence cooperation, and the ongoing West Asia crisis. During the interaction, Rubio extended an official invitation from US President Donald Trump for PM Modi to visit the White House in the near future.

The US Secretary of State described the partnership between New Delhi and Washington as a foundational cornerstone of America’s overarching strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. Highlighting India’s central role, Rubio noted that his very first official engagement upon taking office was a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), emphasizing that hosting the upcoming foreign ministers’ meeting in India acts as a tangible sign of the deep commitment to this framework.

Clarification on immigration rules

Addressing separate concerns regarding recent shifts in American immigration policies, the top diplomat provided a crucial clarification regarding the new guidelines for permanent residency. Media reports had previously highlighted anxieties surrounding a newly instituted rule that requires many legal immigrants to exit the US and apply for green cards from their home countries.

Rubio explicitly stated to the media that these measures are universal regulatory updates rather than policy shifts targeted at any specific nation. He reassured that the rule is applicable globally to all international applicants and is not directed exclusively at Indian citizens.

The visit marks Rubio’s first official trip to India since assuming office. His comprehensive itinerary began in Kolkata and includes a scheduled bilateral dialogue with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, alongside participation in the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting alongside international counterparts.

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High stakes for India-US ties as top American diplomat arrives for critical bilateral talks

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has arrived in India for a vital four-day tour aimed at reinforcing bilateral cooperation amid global energy challenges, tariff disputes, and shifting regional security dynamics.

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has landed in Kolkata to begin an extensive four-day diplomatic tour of India, marking his first official visit to the country since assuming office. The visit arrives at a crucial juncture for bilateral relations, with both nations navigating complex global alignments, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and shifting economic dynamics.

Upon arriving in Kolkata, the top diplomat broke a 14-year hiatus since a US secretary of state last traveled to the eastern metropolis. Accompanied by his wife, Jeanette D. Rubio, and the US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, the delegation commenced the tour by visiting the Missionaries of Charity headquarters, the historical Mother House founded by Mother Teresa.

Strategic energy shifts and regional security on the table

The four-day visit carries elevated strategic significance as the two major global partners look to address critical geopolitical challenges. Headlining the bilateral talks are the economic ripples of the US-Iran war, particularly its immediate fallout on international energy security and commercial trade routes.

The energy partnership remains a key focal point. While India continues to procure substantial volumes of discounted Russian crude oil to stabilize its domestic market, Washington is actively attempting to diversify New Delhi’s energy footprint by expanding American liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude exports to the South Asian nation. Additionally, the leadership will deliberate on resolving recent trade frictions arising from tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods.

Strengthening the bilateral roadmap

Prior to starting his engagements, the Secretary of State underlined the strength of the relationship, characterizing India as an invaluable partner and ally with whom Washington shares a robust and extensive collaborative framework. The visit serves as a top-level initiative to stabilize and accelerate the momentum of the bilateral partnership, backed by the personal investment of both US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The diplomat’s packed itinerary includes a high-profile meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, followed by extensive bilateral discussions with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Furthermore, the tour will culminate in New Delhi, where the Secretary of State will join regional partners for a meeting of the Quad foreign ministers. Cultural stops in Agra and Jaipur are also scheduled during the four-day visit.

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