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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

~By Saeed Naqvi

The Byzantine and Roman sites of Ebla and Idlib, in North West Syria, may well be reduced to dust if an explosion occurs on a scale many expect. Sadly these archaeological losses will not even be noticed. They will be submerged in the looming human catastrophe.

Ever since the manufactured civil war was launched in 2011 to turn the tables on the Arab Spring, the Syrian theatre has seen many climaxes: Homs, Hama, Deraa, Raqqa, Aleppo, 50 kms, North East of Idlib. But there is unanimity that Idlib will shake the region like nothing else has so far. This hyperbole is not based on personal observational, though I have visited Syria in the midst of the civil war.

White House National Security Adviser, John Bolton has been warning repeatedly that the Syrian government was about to use chemical weapons in Idlib. Even before Bolton’s warning, Hassan Nasrallah, much the shrewdest leader in the region, had raised an alarm: we have information that a plot was being hatched to foist on Damascus the allegation that it had used chemical weapons. The alert eye being kept on Idlib by the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US exposes a population of three million to all manner of unpredictabilities.

It is an irony of our times that great and medium powers are riveted on Idlib not because its ancient monuments or the civilian population but because of the 60 to 80 thousand of militants scattered through the governorate. These militants are from half a dozen different groups. There are quarrels galore between these groups claiming proximity to major powers with stakes in the Syrian pie. Among the bewildering range of groups are the Al Nusra Front, Haya Tehrir e Shaam, Turkestan Islamic Front with links to Uigur groups in Xinxian. There are off shoots of the PKK, keeping Turkey on sixes and sevens. Not to be forgotten are the Chechens focused on the Caucasus. Then there is the Free Syrian Front.

Read More: Syrian Militants Secretly Flown To Afghanistan, China Raises a Battalion

For Damascus a militant is a militant and should be eliminated. Turkey, on the other hand, may see some groups – Tehrir e Shaam, for instance – as assets in Ankara’s conflict with Kurdish groups. The US would like most of the militant groups to be protected because they will always come in handy whenever it becomes necessary to mount extra pressure on Bashar al Assad. Washington may be inclined to negotiate the future of some of the assets if Assad allowed them more bases in Syria.

Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, even far off Kosovo, everywhere, Americans a super power by habit, if not in substance any longer, develop multiple interests. After the 72 day bombing of Serbia, removing Slobodan Milosevic, creating an independent enclave of Kosovo, the US moved on only after they had created Bond Steel, abutting Macedonia, the largest military base since Vietnam. Likewise, they entered Afghanistan ostensibly to remove Osama bin Laden but have, over the past 17 years, developed multiple interests – minerals, UNOCAL pipeline, Helmand Poppy fields, keeping an eye on the world’s only Muslim nuclear bomb in Pakistan, keeping Iran, Central Asian Republics, Xinxian, the Caucasus under surveillance – and within range.

Read More: Syrian War Being Dragged On Basis Of Lies For Ulterior Reasons

In Idlib too US interests are varied. Notice I have not mentioned Syria because that involvement is of epic proportions. Idlib in Syria is the enclave where all the regional and global stakeholders, have nudged and pushed their respective “militants”, “terrorists” and “moderate groups”. For Syria, Russia and Iran they are all the same and need to be exterminated.

This remedy is anathema to Turkey. The country is already host to 3.5 million refugees. Bombing of Idlib will cause another 2.5 million civilian to cross the Turkish border.

Further, there are among the motley crowd of militants those who will checkmate a “Kurdish enclave” contiguous with the territory the PKK claims. The enclave would be the thin end of the wedge for an expansive Kurdish idea.

The US would like to create just such an enclave. Not only would it like to have bases, an American habit as I have indicated earlier, but it would have another potential state under its control. It would be the second home away from home in West Asia just as Israel is – on a much smaller scale though.

Read More: Saudi Crown Prince, Trump Together Staring At Syrian Exit Door

The other, bigger idea is to divide Syria to the satisfaction of Israel and those with a steady gaze on the gas pipelines. The idea of dividing Syria into four is as old as the hills. But all the other powers – Iran, Turkey, Russia, for instance – will not allow this to happen. When the three powers met in Tehran last week there was unanimity on one issue: the territorial integrity of Syria.

The presence of 1000 European Jihadis in the brew adds further pungency to the vapours of confusion. The great European nations, their noses up, do not wish these “tainted” citizens to return. Should they be put away then? No, say European Intelligence agencies. There are so many “militants”, “terrorists”, “moderate rebels” in Idlib. Let the Europeans gestate among them.

How long will this uneasy status quo last? Already, Russians have detected activity on the “chemical weapons” Front. There are reports that cameramen have already shot little boys being bathed to remove the “chemicals they have been exposed to”. White Helmets, the miracle men who save people by appearing in the epicentre of the attack without being burnt have been seen here and there.

Remember, the eight year old Syrian boy with burnt skin in October 2016, in the midst of the US election campaign. CNN’s Christiane Amanpour flourished a photograph of the boy before Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov in the course of an interview in Moscow.

“Is this not a crime against humanity?” shouted Amanpour.

“Very sad” said an amused Lavrov. This was the first time Lavrov publicly expressed the fear that Americans were helping terrorists in Syria.

When the photograph did not make much of an impression on the Russian Foreign Minister, the very same photograph materialized in candidate Hillary Clinton’s hand during the last Presidential debate in Las Vegas. With expert histrionics, Clinton simulated a lump in her throat for maximum effect.

Is Idlib about to yield a crop of pictures of white helmets and little boys with burns?

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PM Modi and Netanyahu pledge deeper defence, trade ties during Israel visit

PM Narendra Modi and Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to deepen defence, trade and connectivity ties during Modi’s visit to Israel, with missile deals and IMEC discussions on the agenda.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening defence, trade and security cooperation, marking a significant step forward in India-Israel relations during Mr Modi’s visit to Tel Aviv.

Addressing Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, Mr Modi described defence cooperation as an “important pillar” of the bilateral partnership and stressed the need for closer collaboration in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

“In today’s uncertain world, a strong defence partnership between trusted partners like India and Israel is of vital importance,” he said.

Defence deal likely on agenda

During the visit — Mr Modi’s first to Israel in nine years — discussions are expected to include a major order for Israeli-made missile systems. An official in New Delhi familiar with the matter indicated that details of the potential deal may not be publicly disclosed, as both governments are keen to keep the spotlight on broader strategic ties.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs has not commented on the reported missile purchase.

Israel has long been among India’s key arms suppliers. Over the years, the defence relationship has evolved into joint manufacturing projects, including drones and missile systems. Ahead of the visit, Israel’s Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, said both sides are working towards a more comprehensive defence and security framework that could open doors for cooperation on more sensitive projects.

Focus on trade and investment

Trade and investment featured prominently in the leaders’ discussions. Mr Modi said both governments are committed to expanding bilateral trade, boosting investment flows and promoting joint infrastructure projects.

Israeli negotiators recently travelled to India to begin formal talks on a proposed free-trade agreement, building on terms agreed in November. Such a pact could provide Israel greater access to one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

According to Israel’s Economy and Industry Ministry, India is Israel’s second-largest trading partner in Asia, with bilateral trade estimated at $5 billion in 2025, excluding defence transactions.

India is also the largest buyer of Israeli defence equipment, accounting for up to 34% of Israel’s total arms exports, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Regional security and Gaza ceasefire

The visit comes amid shifting regional alliances and ongoing security challenges. Referring to last year’s ceasefire in Gaza, Mr Modi said the truce created an opportunity for closer cooperation.

He also welcomed the US-brokered peace plan for Gaza, later endorsed by the United Nations, saying it holds the promise of a just and durable peace, including progress on the Palestine issue. However, uncertainty remains over the future of the truce with Hamas, with key governance and security questions yet to be resolved.

Strategic observers note that both leaders see their countries as operating in complex neighbourhoods marked by security threats and geopolitical shifts.

Connectivity push through IMEC

Connectivity initiatives also featured in the discussions. Mr Netanyahu told the Knesset that India and Israel are working on developing a maritime and land corridor linking India to Israel’s port of Haifa and onward to Europe.

The plan builds on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative unveiled in September 2023. Although the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict soon after raised concerns about the project’s future, Israeli officials have indicated that the corridor remains viable.

Haifa port, partly acquired by India’s Adani Group, is expected to play a key role as the Mediterranean endpoint of the corridor.

As India and Israel seek to reinforce strategic, economic and security ties, the visit underlines the growing convergence between New Delhi and Tel Aviv in defence, trade and regional connectivity.

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Canada softens stance on alleged Indian interference ahead of PM Carney’s India visit

Canada appears to ease its earlier allegations of Indian interference as PM Mark Carney heads to India to strengthen trade and strategic ties.

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Canada appears to be easing its earlier allegations of Indian interference as Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares for a key visit to India aimed at rebuilding commercial and diplomatic ties.

Senior officials in Ottawa indicated that the Canadian government maintains “mature and robust discussions” with the Government of India on concerns related to foreign interference. They also emphasised that Canada has strong safeguards in place to protect its democratic institutions.

According to officials quoted by media, the Prime Minister would likely not be travelling to India if Ottawa believed New Delhi was actively interfering in Canada’s democratic processes. The remarks suggest a noticeable shift from the strong accusations levelled last year.

Officials said there has been sustained engagement with the government of Narendra Modi at multiple levels, including senior officials, ministers and leadership-level interactions. They expressed confidence that the discussions provide a foundation for further constructive dialogue.

At the same time, a senior official reiterated that Canada maintains “no tolerance” for foreign interference in its domestic affairs.

From allegations to engagement

The recent comments contrast with statements made last June by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), which accused India of being among the primary actors involved in foreign interference and espionage activities in Canada.

CSIS had also described alleged links between Indian authorities and the 2023 killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver as a “significant escalation” in India’s actions against the Khalistan movement.

India firmly rejected those accusations. The dispute triggered a diplomatic standoff, with both countries expelling senior diplomats from Ottawa and New Delhi in a tit-for-tat move.

Carney’s push to rebuild ties

Prime Minister Carney’s visit to India is being positioned as part of a broader Indo-Pacific outreach and a more pragmatic foreign policy approach. His trip will begin in Mumbai before he heads to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Modi.

The visit comes as both nations seek to stabilise relations that deteriorated sharply following Canada’s allegations over Nijjar’s killing — claims that New Delhi strongly denied.

Carney’s office has said discussions will centre on expanding cooperation in trade, energy, technology, artificial intelligence, talent mobility, culture and defence.

Growing trade partnership

India is currently Canada’s seventh-largest trading partner in goods and services. Annual bilateral trade exceeds $21 billion, according to Canadian government data.

The two sides had previously agreed to resume negotiations on a proposed free-trade agreement, targeting bilateral trade of $50 billion by 2030.

More than 600 Canadian companies operate in India across sectors such as information technology, banking, health sciences and financial services. Key Indian exports to Canada include pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, precious stones and seafood.

Diplomatic ties show signs of recovery

Canada hosts approximately 2.8 million people of Indian origin. Nearly 400,000 Indian students are enrolled in Canadian universities, making them the largest group of international students in the country.

Canada is also home to the largest Sikh population outside India, including some fringe separatist elements advocating for Khalistan.

Relations between the two countries began to improve after Carney assumed office in March 2025, with envoys restored and diplomatic engagement gradually resuming.

The upcoming visit is being viewed as a significant step toward stabilising ties and advancing economic cooperation amid shifting global trade dynamics and uncertainties linked to policies under US President Donald Trump.

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PM Modi reaffirms support for Israel, recalls 26/11 victims in Knesset address

Addressing Israel’s parliament, PM Narendra Modi reaffirmed India’s support for Israel, condemned terrorism, and recalled the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday addressed the Knesset, expressing solidarity with Israel and condemning terrorism, while highlighting the growing partnership between the two nations.

Calling it a rare honour, Mr Modi said he brought greetings from 1.4 billion Indians and described his address as a symbol of the warmth between the two democracies.

Condolences over October 7 attack

The Prime Minister conveyed condolences for the lives lost in the October 7 attack by Hamas. He said India shares Israel’s grief and stands firmly with the country “with full conviction in this moment and beyond”.

“Nothing can justify terrorism,” Mr Modi said, adding that India too has suffered from terror attacks for decades. He recalled the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the innocent lives lost, including Israeli citizens, and reiterated India’s policy of zero tolerance towards terrorism without double standards.

Reference to Abraham Accords and regional hope

Referring to the Abraham Accords, Mr Modi said India had applauded the vision and courage shown at the time. While noting that the regional situation has since become more challenging, he stressed the importance of sustaining hope for peace.

Historic ties and expanding partnership

The Prime Minister said he was the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel nine years ago and expressed happiness at returning. He also noted that he shares his birth date — September 17, 1950 — with the day India formally recognised Israel.

Recalling his earlier visit to Israel as Gujarat Chief Minister in 2006 and his 2017 trip as Prime Minister, Mr Modi said bilateral ties were elevated to a Strategic Partnership during the latter visit. Since then, he added, engagement has broadened across sectors.

He pointed to cooperation in innovation, mentioning the inauguration of the iCreate Technology Business Incubator in 2018 with then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The incubator, he said, has since supported nearly 900 start-ups.

Shared civilisational values

Mr Modi said Jewish communities have lived in India without fear of persecution and have preserved their faith while participating fully in society. He described this as a matter of pride.

Highlighting philosophical parallels, he referred to the Israeli concept of “Tikkun Olam”, meaning healing the world, and India’s belief in “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, which sees the world as one family. Both traditions, he said, call for compassion and moral courage beyond immediate boundaries.

He also acknowledged the contribution of Indian caregivers and skilled workers in Israel, noting their courage and dedication, including during the October 7 crisis.

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