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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

~By Saeed Naqvi

The Byzantine and Roman sites of Ebla and Idlib, in North West Syria, may well be reduced to dust if an explosion occurs on a scale many expect. Sadly these archaeological losses will not even be noticed. They will be submerged in the looming human catastrophe.

Ever since the manufactured civil war was launched in 2011 to turn the tables on the Arab Spring, the Syrian theatre has seen many climaxes: Homs, Hama, Deraa, Raqqa, Aleppo, 50 kms, North East of Idlib. But there is unanimity that Idlib will shake the region like nothing else has so far. This hyperbole is not based on personal observational, though I have visited Syria in the midst of the civil war.

White House National Security Adviser, John Bolton has been warning repeatedly that the Syrian government was about to use chemical weapons in Idlib. Even before Bolton’s warning, Hassan Nasrallah, much the shrewdest leader in the region, had raised an alarm: we have information that a plot was being hatched to foist on Damascus the allegation that it had used chemical weapons. The alert eye being kept on Idlib by the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US exposes a population of three million to all manner of unpredictabilities.

It is an irony of our times that great and medium powers are riveted on Idlib not because its ancient monuments or the civilian population but because of the 60 to 80 thousand of militants scattered through the governorate. These militants are from half a dozen different groups. There are quarrels galore between these groups claiming proximity to major powers with stakes in the Syrian pie. Among the bewildering range of groups are the Al Nusra Front, Haya Tehrir e Shaam, Turkestan Islamic Front with links to Uigur groups in Xinxian. There are off shoots of the PKK, keeping Turkey on sixes and sevens. Not to be forgotten are the Chechens focused on the Caucasus. Then there is the Free Syrian Front.

Read More: Syrian Militants Secretly Flown To Afghanistan, China Raises a Battalion

For Damascus a militant is a militant and should be eliminated. Turkey, on the other hand, may see some groups – Tehrir e Shaam, for instance – as assets in Ankara’s conflict with Kurdish groups. The US would like most of the militant groups to be protected because they will always come in handy whenever it becomes necessary to mount extra pressure on Bashar al Assad. Washington may be inclined to negotiate the future of some of the assets if Assad allowed them more bases in Syria.

Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, even far off Kosovo, everywhere, Americans a super power by habit, if not in substance any longer, develop multiple interests. After the 72 day bombing of Serbia, removing Slobodan Milosevic, creating an independent enclave of Kosovo, the US moved on only after they had created Bond Steel, abutting Macedonia, the largest military base since Vietnam. Likewise, they entered Afghanistan ostensibly to remove Osama bin Laden but have, over the past 17 years, developed multiple interests – minerals, UNOCAL pipeline, Helmand Poppy fields, keeping an eye on the world’s only Muslim nuclear bomb in Pakistan, keeping Iran, Central Asian Republics, Xinxian, the Caucasus under surveillance – and within range.

Read More: Syrian War Being Dragged On Basis Of Lies For Ulterior Reasons

In Idlib too US interests are varied. Notice I have not mentioned Syria because that involvement is of epic proportions. Idlib in Syria is the enclave where all the regional and global stakeholders, have nudged and pushed their respective “militants”, “terrorists” and “moderate groups”. For Syria, Russia and Iran they are all the same and need to be exterminated.

This remedy is anathema to Turkey. The country is already host to 3.5 million refugees. Bombing of Idlib will cause another 2.5 million civilian to cross the Turkish border.

Further, there are among the motley crowd of militants those who will checkmate a “Kurdish enclave” contiguous with the territory the PKK claims. The enclave would be the thin end of the wedge for an expansive Kurdish idea.

The US would like to create just such an enclave. Not only would it like to have bases, an American habit as I have indicated earlier, but it would have another potential state under its control. It would be the second home away from home in West Asia just as Israel is – on a much smaller scale though.

Read More: Saudi Crown Prince, Trump Together Staring At Syrian Exit Door

The other, bigger idea is to divide Syria to the satisfaction of Israel and those with a steady gaze on the gas pipelines. The idea of dividing Syria into four is as old as the hills. But all the other powers – Iran, Turkey, Russia, for instance – will not allow this to happen. When the three powers met in Tehran last week there was unanimity on one issue: the territorial integrity of Syria.

The presence of 1000 European Jihadis in the brew adds further pungency to the vapours of confusion. The great European nations, their noses up, do not wish these “tainted” citizens to return. Should they be put away then? No, say European Intelligence agencies. There are so many “militants”, “terrorists”, “moderate rebels” in Idlib. Let the Europeans gestate among them.

How long will this uneasy status quo last? Already, Russians have detected activity on the “chemical weapons” Front. There are reports that cameramen have already shot little boys being bathed to remove the “chemicals they have been exposed to”. White Helmets, the miracle men who save people by appearing in the epicentre of the attack without being burnt have been seen here and there.

Remember, the eight year old Syrian boy with burnt skin in October 2016, in the midst of the US election campaign. CNN’s Christiane Amanpour flourished a photograph of the boy before Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov in the course of an interview in Moscow.

“Is this not a crime against humanity?” shouted Amanpour.

“Very sad” said an amused Lavrov. This was the first time Lavrov publicly expressed the fear that Americans were helping terrorists in Syria.

When the photograph did not make much of an impression on the Russian Foreign Minister, the very same photograph materialized in candidate Hillary Clinton’s hand during the last Presidential debate in Las Vegas. With expert histrionics, Clinton simulated a lump in her throat for maximum effect.

Is Idlib about to yield a crop of pictures of white helmets and little boys with burns?

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Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: Voting begins in United States

Over 82 million Americans have opted for early voting to cast their ballots for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

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Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: Voting begins in United States

The Voting for the 2024 US presidential election has begun in the eastern time zone in America. Following months of intense campaigning by Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and her Republican challenger Donald Trump, Americans will vote to choose their next president.

Reportedly, the first ballots were cast in the minutes after midnight (US time) in a tiny New Hampshire township along the US-Canada border. Over 82 million Americans have opted for early voting to cast their ballots for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Several pollsters have predicted a neck-and-neck contest, which brings the focus on the swing states to decide the fate of the presidential election.

Notably, in the United States, most states have a very clear preference for either the Republican or Democratic candidate. With this, only seven key swing states namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina will decide the result. Winning the majority of these aforesaid swing states is often essential for candidates aiming to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

In this election, Pennsylvania has emerged as the biggest prize between the two candidates. With the most electoral votes (19) than any other battleground state, Pennsylvania could possibly determine whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris clinches the White House.

On the last day of campaigning, Republican nominee Trump and Democratic nominee Harris criss-crossed key battleground states and delivered closing remarks. Former President Donald Trump, who is seeking a return to power, held rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan while Vice President Kamala Harris addressed supporters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania.

Earlier in 2016, Donald Trump managed to make inroads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the three Great Lakes states that make up the blue wall or a Democratic stronghold. Nonetheless, in the 2020 US Election, US President Joe Biden wrested the states back to the Democratic camp.

Notably, to win the presidency, a candidate needs a majority of electoral votes of 270 out of 538.

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Latest world news

Amid India-Canada diplomatic tensions, Justin Trudeau shares video of his Diwali celebrations

This comes a day after India expressed its concern over the reports of cancelled Diwali celebrations in Canada.

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Amid the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Canada and India over the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday shared a video of his Diwali celebration on social media platform X.

Sharing a 44-second video of his Diwali celebrations on social media, the Canadian Prime Minister wrote, “Happy Diwali! So many special moments shared celebrating with the community this week.”

This comes a day after India expressed its concern over the reports of cancelled Diwali celebrations in Canada.

The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Saturday, while addressing the media over Canada’s serious allegation against Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Nijjar, said it was unfortunate that the prevailing atmosphere in Canada has reached high levels of intolerance and extremism.

In the video, Prime Minister Trudeau showed off some colorful religious threads on his wrists, explaining that he received them during visits to three Hindu temples in Canada recently. He called them symbols of “good luck” and “protection,” adding with a smile, “I’m not taking them off until they fall off”.

Trudeau was also seen interacting warmly with the community, celebrating the festival, and enjoying delicious Indian sweets like jalebis, which he jokingly said he would “save for the team.”

On November 1, Trudeau posted on X, “Happy Diwali! Today, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, and Jain families will celebrate the triumph of light over darkness with festivities, candles, diyas, and fireworks. Wishing you all joy and prosperity during this special time.”

Addressing a press conference in Delhi, Jaiswal said India condemns the recent allegations made by the Canadian government against Shah that he was purportedly involved in the killing of Nijjar and called it “absurd and baseless”.

Jaiswal also said that India had summoned the Canadian High Commissioner on Friday to protest in the strongest terms for the references made to the Union Home Minister of India before the Committee by Canada’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister David Morrison.

On Tuesday, Morrison claimed that Shah orchestrated a campaign of violence, intimidation, and intelligence-gathering aimed at Sikh separatists on Canadian soil. He informed members of Canada’s national security committee in Parliament that he had confirmed Shah’s name to The Washington Post, which was the first to report the allegations. However, Morrison did not provide details on how Canada became aware of Shah’s alleged involvement.

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India, China complete disengagement in Depsang, Demchok at LAC after 4 years standoff

The Indian Army said that coordinated patrolling will start soon by both sides, and the ground commanders will continue to hold talks.

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India, China complete disengagement in Depsang, Demchok at LAC after 4 years standoff

In a significant development, India and China have completed the disengagement exercise in the Depsang and Demchok friction points at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. The troops of both the countries are now verifying the vacation of positions and removal of infrastructure.

Reportedly, the Indian Army said that coordinated patrolling will start soon by both sides, and the ground commanders will continue to hold talks. The two sides will exchange sweets for Diwali tomorrow.

Earlier, Foreign secretary Vikram Misri announced that New Delhi and Beijing reached an agreement to disengage in the remaining friction points at LAC in eastern Ladakh. After the agreement, the two countries began troops disengagement at the two friction points at Demchok and Depsang plains on October 23.

India-China relations worsened because of the Chinese troops’ aggression along the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border, in April 2020. It further deteriorated on June 15, 2020, after 20 Indian soldiers died in the line of duty thwarting the Chinese offensive in the Galwan Valley. New Delhi had said India’s bilateral relations with China will normalise only after the situation at the LAC returns to what it was before May 2020.

Reports said that the Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have pulled back their forward-deployed troops and equipment from the two flashpoints, and have also dismantled temporary structures that had been built during the four-year-long standoff.

The Indian soldiers will resume their patrolling in areas that had been cut off because of the PLA’s presence. Nonetheless, the disengagement in Depsang and Demchok will not lead to the creation of buffer zones.

Both the countries had disengaged from Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15) areas and created buffer zones. Speaking to a newspaper publication, Lieutenant General Vinod Bhatia (retd), a former director general of military operations said that the disengagement at Depsang and Demchok will facilitate patrolling by both sides in a coordinated manner, and in the agreed upon frequency and strength of the patrolling parties.

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