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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

~By Saeed Naqvi

The Byzantine and Roman sites of Ebla and Idlib, in North West Syria, may well be reduced to dust if an explosion occurs on a scale many expect. Sadly these archaeological losses will not even be noticed. They will be submerged in the looming human catastrophe.

Ever since the manufactured civil war was launched in 2011 to turn the tables on the Arab Spring, the Syrian theatre has seen many climaxes: Homs, Hama, Deraa, Raqqa, Aleppo, 50 kms, North East of Idlib. But there is unanimity that Idlib will shake the region like nothing else has so far. This hyperbole is not based on personal observational, though I have visited Syria in the midst of the civil war.

White House National Security Adviser, John Bolton has been warning repeatedly that the Syrian government was about to use chemical weapons in Idlib. Even before Bolton’s warning, Hassan Nasrallah, much the shrewdest leader in the region, had raised an alarm: we have information that a plot was being hatched to foist on Damascus the allegation that it had used chemical weapons. The alert eye being kept on Idlib by the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US exposes a population of three million to all manner of unpredictabilities.

It is an irony of our times that great and medium powers are riveted on Idlib not because its ancient monuments or the civilian population but because of the 60 to 80 thousand of militants scattered through the governorate. These militants are from half a dozen different groups. There are quarrels galore between these groups claiming proximity to major powers with stakes in the Syrian pie. Among the bewildering range of groups are the Al Nusra Front, Haya Tehrir e Shaam, Turkestan Islamic Front with links to Uigur groups in Xinxian. There are off shoots of the PKK, keeping Turkey on sixes and sevens. Not to be forgotten are the Chechens focused on the Caucasus. Then there is the Free Syrian Front.

Read More: Syrian Militants Secretly Flown To Afghanistan, China Raises a Battalion

For Damascus a militant is a militant and should be eliminated. Turkey, on the other hand, may see some groups – Tehrir e Shaam, for instance – as assets in Ankara’s conflict with Kurdish groups. The US would like most of the militant groups to be protected because they will always come in handy whenever it becomes necessary to mount extra pressure on Bashar al Assad. Washington may be inclined to negotiate the future of some of the assets if Assad allowed them more bases in Syria.

Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, even far off Kosovo, everywhere, Americans a super power by habit, if not in substance any longer, develop multiple interests. After the 72 day bombing of Serbia, removing Slobodan Milosevic, creating an independent enclave of Kosovo, the US moved on only after they had created Bond Steel, abutting Macedonia, the largest military base since Vietnam. Likewise, they entered Afghanistan ostensibly to remove Osama bin Laden but have, over the past 17 years, developed multiple interests – minerals, UNOCAL pipeline, Helmand Poppy fields, keeping an eye on the world’s only Muslim nuclear bomb in Pakistan, keeping Iran, Central Asian Republics, Xinxian, the Caucasus under surveillance – and within range.

Read More: Syrian War Being Dragged On Basis Of Lies For Ulterior Reasons

In Idlib too US interests are varied. Notice I have not mentioned Syria because that involvement is of epic proportions. Idlib in Syria is the enclave where all the regional and global stakeholders, have nudged and pushed their respective “militants”, “terrorists” and “moderate groups”. For Syria, Russia and Iran they are all the same and need to be exterminated.

This remedy is anathema to Turkey. The country is already host to 3.5 million refugees. Bombing of Idlib will cause another 2.5 million civilian to cross the Turkish border.

Further, there are among the motley crowd of militants those who will checkmate a “Kurdish enclave” contiguous with the territory the PKK claims. The enclave would be the thin end of the wedge for an expansive Kurdish idea.

The US would like to create just such an enclave. Not only would it like to have bases, an American habit as I have indicated earlier, but it would have another potential state under its control. It would be the second home away from home in West Asia just as Israel is – on a much smaller scale though.

Read More: Saudi Crown Prince, Trump Together Staring At Syrian Exit Door

The other, bigger idea is to divide Syria to the satisfaction of Israel and those with a steady gaze on the gas pipelines. The idea of dividing Syria into four is as old as the hills. But all the other powers – Iran, Turkey, Russia, for instance – will not allow this to happen. When the three powers met in Tehran last week there was unanimity on one issue: the territorial integrity of Syria.

The presence of 1000 European Jihadis in the brew adds further pungency to the vapours of confusion. The great European nations, their noses up, do not wish these “tainted” citizens to return. Should they be put away then? No, say European Intelligence agencies. There are so many “militants”, “terrorists”, “moderate rebels” in Idlib. Let the Europeans gestate among them.

How long will this uneasy status quo last? Already, Russians have detected activity on the “chemical weapons” Front. There are reports that cameramen have already shot little boys being bathed to remove the “chemicals they have been exposed to”. White Helmets, the miracle men who save people by appearing in the epicentre of the attack without being burnt have been seen here and there.

Remember, the eight year old Syrian boy with burnt skin in October 2016, in the midst of the US election campaign. CNN’s Christiane Amanpour flourished a photograph of the boy before Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov in the course of an interview in Moscow.

“Is this not a crime against humanity?” shouted Amanpour.

“Very sad” said an amused Lavrov. This was the first time Lavrov publicly expressed the fear that Americans were helping terrorists in Syria.

When the photograph did not make much of an impression on the Russian Foreign Minister, the very same photograph materialized in candidate Hillary Clinton’s hand during the last Presidential debate in Las Vegas. With expert histrionics, Clinton simulated a lump in her throat for maximum effect.

Is Idlib about to yield a crop of pictures of white helmets and little boys with burns?

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India a critical anchor to maintain balance of power in regional security, says top US official

Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, top US official Pete Hegseth praised India as a critical anchor holding the line in South Asia, noting its heavy industrial capacity to sustain high-end military operations.

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In a major statement highlighting the growing strategic alignment between Washington and New Delhi, top US official Pete Hegseth described India as a critical pillar of regional stability. Speaking on the second day of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Hegseth noted that New Delhi’s ongoing military modernisation directly serves the shared objective of preserving a balance of power across the Indo-Pacific.

“In South Asia, India is a critical anchor to hold the line,” the top official said while addressing delegates from 44 nations. “A powerful India acting in its own self-interest advances our shared goal of maintaining a balance of power across the region.”

Growing logistics and maritime capabilities

The US administration heavily praised New Delhi’s defence industrial advancements, particularly highlighting its expanding operations in the Indian Ocean region. According to media reports, the official observed that India is modernising its armed forces to carry its share of the security burden in these crucial maritime corridors.

Furthermore, the official emphasized that New Delhi is successfully building out a heavy industrial and logistics capacity capable of sustaining high-end military operations. This expanding domestic infrastructure includes the ability to repair and maintain shared defence platforms, as well as supporting allied naval vessels operating forward in the regional theatre.

Strategic co-production and regional readiness

The partnership between the two nations is translating into tangible operational steps. The official revealed that Washington has firmly committed to pursuing joint production initiatives with New Delhi. Among these initiatives is the co-production of advanced capabilities, including Javelin anti-tank guided munitions, aimed at improving the collective readiness of their forces.

“This kind of industrial muscle isn’t just a long-term goal, it’s an immediate operational imperative,” the official stated, linking New Delhi’s defence manufacturing strength to a broader collective strategy.

Global defense spending and alliance priorities

The address also outlined Washington’s massive domestic military manufacturing mobilisation under President Donald Trump. Following a defence expenditure of USD 1 trillion last year, plans are underway for a historic generational investment of USD 1.5 trillion this year to expand military dominance and weaponry production at scale and speed.

While noting that relations between Washington and Beijing are currently better than they have been in many years, the official maintained that no state can be allowed to impose hegemony or compromise regional security.

Calling upon global partners to match this resolve, the administration indicated it expects allies to hit a defence spending target of 3.5 per cent of their GDP. Moving forward, Washington intends to prioritize and fast-track cooperation with “model allies”—defined as nations that are capable, clear-eyed, and ready to stand up for their national interests.

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Satellite images reveal extensive construction of launch pads and bunkers near Chinese nuclear missile silos

Satellite images show that Beijing is constructing a vast web of over 80 launch pads, command bunkers, and electronic warfare facilities to protect its longest-range nuclear missiles in a remote desert complex.

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A vast military complex is rapidly taking shape in a remote Chinese desert, raising significant attention among security scholars. Freshly analyzed satellite images indicate that Beijing is building an expansive network of launch pads, bunkers, and communications nodes. This critical infrastructure is positioned near isolated nuclear silos that house the Chinese military’s longest-range missiles, which are already capable of reaching any city in the United States.

Media reports indicate that the scale of this newly discovered construction points to a sweeping expansion of hardened infrastructure. The entire network is specifically designed to protect and operate China’s land-based nuclear forces. This massive buildup signals a major upgrade in efforts to secure a resilient second-strike capability, highlighting the intensifying nuclear competition with Western powers amidst rising regional tensions.

Protecting second strike capabilities

According to assessments by security analysts, the imagery reveals more than 80 launch pads. These pads are intended for potential use by an expanding fleet of mobile missile launchers as well as air-defense batteries. Furthermore, the newly built facilities appear configured to serve command operations, satellite communications, and electronic warfare functions.

Security experts note that this infrastructure is being deployed on a grand scale, stretching across thousands of square kilometers of desert landscape beyond the primary silo fields. Depending on the exact operational capabilities of these sites, the development represents a highly considerable enhancement and diversification of the nation’s strategic nuclear deterrent.

The primary objective behind safeguarding these desert silos aligns with the stated goal of maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent. This military policy remains grounded in the absolute capacity to retaliate effectively if the nation is struck first.

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US-Iran talks move closer as $300 billion investment proposal emerges

The United States and Iran are said to be nearing a preliminary agreement that could include sanctions relief, access to frozen Iranian assets, a Lebanon ceasefire framework and a proposed $300 billion reconstruction-linked investment plan.

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The United States and Iran are reportedly edging closer to a preliminary agreement that could temporarily ease tensions in the Middle East while opening the door for wider negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and regional security.

According to reports, the evolving framework may include discussions around a proposed $300 billion reconstruction and investment mechanism for Iran if a final agreement is eventually reached. The proposal is said to involve international investment support facilitated with US backing.

Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz among major discussion points

One of the key elements under discussion reportedly concerns reducing hostilities involving Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The issue has emerged as a sensitive component of the broader negotiations, especially amid continued military activity in the region.

The talks are also focused on restoring commercial shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a globally significant energy corridor disrupted during the ongoing conflict. Reports suggest Iran may be expected to help restore safe maritime navigation, while the United States could gradually ease aspects of its blockade depending on progress during negotiations.

Sanctions relief and frozen assets under consideration

Negotiators are also reportedly discussing phased sanctions relief and potential access to billions of dollars in Iranian funds frozen abroad. Iran has long demanded the release of such assets as part of any broader understanding with Washington.

The draft understanding is also expected to include commitments related to Iran’s nuclear activities, including further negotiations on enriched uranium stockpiles and assurances linked to nuclear weapons development.

Key differences still remain unresolved

Despite signs of progress, several differences reportedly remain unresolved between the two sides. Questions continue over the exact wording of the proposed framework, the duration of any ceasefire arrangement and the timeline for easing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports also indicate that mediation efforts involving regional actors, including Pakistan and Qatar, have played a major role in facilitating indirect talks between Washington and Tehran.

While officials from both sides have signalled progress, no final agreement has yet been formally announced.

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