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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

~By Saeed Naqvi

The Byzantine and Roman sites of Ebla and Idlib, in North West Syria, may well be reduced to dust if an explosion occurs on a scale many expect. Sadly these archaeological losses will not even be noticed. They will be submerged in the looming human catastrophe.

Ever since the manufactured civil war was launched in 2011 to turn the tables on the Arab Spring, the Syrian theatre has seen many climaxes: Homs, Hama, Deraa, Raqqa, Aleppo, 50 kms, North East of Idlib. But there is unanimity that Idlib will shake the region like nothing else has so far. This hyperbole is not based on personal observational, though I have visited Syria in the midst of the civil war.

White House National Security Adviser, John Bolton has been warning repeatedly that the Syrian government was about to use chemical weapons in Idlib. Even before Bolton’s warning, Hassan Nasrallah, much the shrewdest leader in the region, had raised an alarm: we have information that a plot was being hatched to foist on Damascus the allegation that it had used chemical weapons. The alert eye being kept on Idlib by the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US exposes a population of three million to all manner of unpredictabilities.

It is an irony of our times that great and medium powers are riveted on Idlib not because its ancient monuments or the civilian population but because of the 60 to 80 thousand of militants scattered through the governorate. These militants are from half a dozen different groups. There are quarrels galore between these groups claiming proximity to major powers with stakes in the Syrian pie. Among the bewildering range of groups are the Al Nusra Front, Haya Tehrir e Shaam, Turkestan Islamic Front with links to Uigur groups in Xinxian. There are off shoots of the PKK, keeping Turkey on sixes and sevens. Not to be forgotten are the Chechens focused on the Caucasus. Then there is the Free Syrian Front.

Read More: Syrian Militants Secretly Flown To Afghanistan, China Raises a Battalion

For Damascus a militant is a militant and should be eliminated. Turkey, on the other hand, may see some groups – Tehrir e Shaam, for instance – as assets in Ankara’s conflict with Kurdish groups. The US would like most of the militant groups to be protected because they will always come in handy whenever it becomes necessary to mount extra pressure on Bashar al Assad. Washington may be inclined to negotiate the future of some of the assets if Assad allowed them more bases in Syria.

Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, even far off Kosovo, everywhere, Americans a super power by habit, if not in substance any longer, develop multiple interests. After the 72 day bombing of Serbia, removing Slobodan Milosevic, creating an independent enclave of Kosovo, the US moved on only after they had created Bond Steel, abutting Macedonia, the largest military base since Vietnam. Likewise, they entered Afghanistan ostensibly to remove Osama bin Laden but have, over the past 17 years, developed multiple interests – minerals, UNOCAL pipeline, Helmand Poppy fields, keeping an eye on the world’s only Muslim nuclear bomb in Pakistan, keeping Iran, Central Asian Republics, Xinxian, the Caucasus under surveillance – and within range.

Read More: Syrian War Being Dragged On Basis Of Lies For Ulterior Reasons

In Idlib too US interests are varied. Notice I have not mentioned Syria because that involvement is of epic proportions. Idlib in Syria is the enclave where all the regional and global stakeholders, have nudged and pushed their respective “militants”, “terrorists” and “moderate groups”. For Syria, Russia and Iran they are all the same and need to be exterminated.

This remedy is anathema to Turkey. The country is already host to 3.5 million refugees. Bombing of Idlib will cause another 2.5 million civilian to cross the Turkish border.

Further, there are among the motley crowd of militants those who will checkmate a “Kurdish enclave” contiguous with the territory the PKK claims. The enclave would be the thin end of the wedge for an expansive Kurdish idea.

The US would like to create just such an enclave. Not only would it like to have bases, an American habit as I have indicated earlier, but it would have another potential state under its control. It would be the second home away from home in West Asia just as Israel is – on a much smaller scale though.

Read More: Saudi Crown Prince, Trump Together Staring At Syrian Exit Door

The other, bigger idea is to divide Syria to the satisfaction of Israel and those with a steady gaze on the gas pipelines. The idea of dividing Syria into four is as old as the hills. But all the other powers – Iran, Turkey, Russia, for instance – will not allow this to happen. When the three powers met in Tehran last week there was unanimity on one issue: the territorial integrity of Syria.

The presence of 1000 European Jihadis in the brew adds further pungency to the vapours of confusion. The great European nations, their noses up, do not wish these “tainted” citizens to return. Should they be put away then? No, say European Intelligence agencies. There are so many “militants”, “terrorists”, “moderate rebels” in Idlib. Let the Europeans gestate among them.

How long will this uneasy status quo last? Already, Russians have detected activity on the “chemical weapons” Front. There are reports that cameramen have already shot little boys being bathed to remove the “chemicals they have been exposed to”. White Helmets, the miracle men who save people by appearing in the epicentre of the attack without being burnt have been seen here and there.

Remember, the eight year old Syrian boy with burnt skin in October 2016, in the midst of the US election campaign. CNN’s Christiane Amanpour flourished a photograph of the boy before Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov in the course of an interview in Moscow.

“Is this not a crime against humanity?” shouted Amanpour.

“Very sad” said an amused Lavrov. This was the first time Lavrov publicly expressed the fear that Americans were helping terrorists in Syria.

When the photograph did not make much of an impression on the Russian Foreign Minister, the very same photograph materialized in candidate Hillary Clinton’s hand during the last Presidential debate in Las Vegas. With expert histrionics, Clinton simulated a lump in her throat for maximum effect.

Is Idlib about to yield a crop of pictures of white helmets and little boys with burns?

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India launches official campaign for UN Security Council 2028-29 seat with SHANTI initiative

India has formally launched its campaign for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat for the 2028-29 term, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar unveiling the ‘SHANTI’ initiative at the UN headquarters.

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UN Security Council

India on Monday formally launched its campaign for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the 2028-29 term, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar unveiling the country’s official campaign, ‘SHANTI: India for the United Nations Security Council 2028-29. Norms, Trust, Integrity,’ at the UN headquarters in New York.

The launch event was attended by UN ambassadors, diplomats and officials. India said its engagement with the United Nations is guided by the principle of ‘SHANTI’, which stands for Securing Holistic Advancement through Norms, Trust, Integrity.

India previously served as a non-permanent member of the 15-nation Security Council during the 2021-22 term.

India to contest against Tajikistan for Asia-Pacific seat

The election for the 2028-29 term is scheduled to take place in June next year, when India and Tajikistan will compete for the lone non-permanent seat allocated to the Asia-Pacific Group.

During his visit, Jaishankar is also scheduled to meet UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The New York visit follows his tour of Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman from July 5 to July 10. He will later travel to Brussels to attend the third India-EU Trade and Technology Council meeting and hold discussions with European Union and Belgian counterparts on July 14-15.

India reiterates demand for UN Security Council reforms

India’s campaign comes at a time of ongoing global geopolitical challenges, including the Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict and the US-Israel military action against Iran.

Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing the Parliament of Indonesia, said the changing global order requires developing nations to have greater participation in international decision-making. He reiterated that reforms to the UN Security Council can no longer be delayed.

India has consistently advocated for comprehensive reforms of the Security Council, arguing that the body, established in 1945, no longer reflects present-day geopolitical realities. New Delhi has maintained that it deserves permanent membership and has called for expansion in both the permanent and non-permanent categories.

India has also cautioned that expanding only the non-permanent membership without addressing the structure of permanent members would not substantially reform the Council’s decision-making process.

Last month, India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Harish Parvathaneni, said the principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” should not be used to delay long-pending reforms. He also accused supporters of maintaining the status quo of using the approach to preserve existing inequities within the Security Council.

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US-Iran tensions escalate as Tehran claims drone fleet destroyed in Bahrain

Iran claimed it destroyed a US military drone fleet in Bahrain after fresh American strikes targeted multiple sites across the country, further escalating tensions in the Gulf region.

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The military confrontation between the United States and Iran intensified on Sunday as both countries exchanged fresh attacks across the Gulf region. Iran claimed it destroyed a US military drone fleet in Bahrain after Washington launched another round of strikes targeting multiple military sites inside the country.

The latest escalation comes amid growing tensions over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route for oil and natural gas exports.

US says fresh strikes targeted Iran’s military capabilities

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it carried out precision strikes on dozens of targets across Iran to weaken Tehran’s ability to threaten international shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the US military, the targets included Iranian air defence systems, coastal radar installations, missile and drone infrastructure, and small military boats. CENTCOM also said it deployed fighter aircraft, naval vessels, one-way attack aerial drones and one-way attack sea drones during the operation.

US officials said the latest offensive followed an alleged attack by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has maintained that the strikes were intended to protect maritime security in the region.

US President Donald Trump also defended the operation, saying the American military had carried out extensive strikes against Iranian targets.

Iran claims attacks on US military bases

Iran responded by announcing strikes on several American military installations across the Gulf. Iranian state media reported that US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman came under attack as Tehran expanded its military response.

Iran’s IRNA news agency claimed that drone operations were continuing against American positions and alleged that an entire US military drone fleet stationed in Bahrain had been destroyed. However, the United States has not confirmed this claim.

In a statement, the IRGC said its aerospace forces targeted helicopter maintenance facilities, a hangar housing a P-8 surveillance aircraft and a US military drone command-and-control centre. Iranian media also reported attacks on defence systems, bunkers and support shelters at US facilities in Kuwait, including the Ali Al Salem and Ahmad Al-Jaber air bases.

Casualties reported in Iran

Iranian authorities said at least one person was killed and four others were injured after a projectile struck an agricultural water pumping station in Mahshahr in Khuzestan province.

According to local officials, the person killed was a security guard stationed at the facility. Iranian authorities said the attack occurred during the early hours of Sunday.

Explosions reported across multiple provinces

Iranian media reported explosions in several provinces following the latest US strikes.

In Hormozgan province, blasts were reported in Jask, Sirik, Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas, where several radar installations and military facilities are located.

Explosions were also reported in Omidiyeh, Mahshahr, Behbahan, Dezful and areas near Ahvaz in Khuzestan province. Additional strikes were reported near Chabahar in Sistan-Baluchestan province and around Khondab in Markazi province, where Iran’s heavy water facilities are situated.

Diplomatic efforts face setback

Tehran said the latest US attacks had rendered months of diplomatic efforts ineffective, signalling a further deterioration in relations between the two countries.

The latest exchange of strikes has heightened concerns over regional stability and the security of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

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Bangkok bar fire kills 27, leaves 22 in critical condition as probe begins

At least 27 people were killed and 63 injured after a devastating fire swept through a Bangkok bar late Sunday. Authorities are investigating the cause of the deadly incident.

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A massive fire at a bar in Thailand’s capital Bangkok late Sunday night killed at least 27 people and left dozens injured, officials said. Rescue teams and firefighters rushed to the scene after flames rapidly engulfed the venue, while people desperately tried to escape through thick smoke.

The fire broke out at the Na Ladprao pub in northern Bangkok around midnight. Firefighters managed to bring the blaze under control after battling it for nearly 30 minutes.

Smoke believed to have caused most deaths

Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt said the fire spread rapidly throughout the premises, reaching the ceiling within a short time.

According to the governor, smoke inhalation is believed to have been the primary cause of most fatalities. He confirmed that 27 people died in the incident, while 63 others were admitted to hospitals. Of those injured, 22 remain in critical condition.

Authorities have launched an investigation to determine how the fire started.

Probe underway into possible blocked escape route

Officials said several victims were discovered near a fire exit, raising concerns that the escape route may have been obstructed during the emergency.

Authorities are also working to establish how many people were inside the venue when the fire broke out, as the exact occupancy remains unknown.

Thailand Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul visited the site and said investigators have not yet determined the exact cause of the blaze.

Musician reported smoke before explosion

The prime minister said a musician performing at the pub told him that smoke was seen coming from a circuit breaker near the stage shortly before the electricity went out.

According to the account, an explosion was heard moments later, after which thick smoke quickly spread across the venue.

Officials also said many victims were found inside restrooms located at the rear of the pub.

Videos capture panic as flames engulf venue

Videos shared online by first responders showed flames consuming the entrance of the bar as thick black smoke billowed into the night sky. People were seen rushing out in an attempt to escape the rapidly spreading fire.

Photographs taken after firefighters extinguished the blaze revealed severe damage inside the venue, with charred interiors and burnt furniture.

Singer Sukanya Wongwongwai, who was performing nearby, said she rushed to the pub after learning about the fire because several members of her band were performing there.

She said one band member died in the blaze, three others were hospitalised and another person remains missing.

According to accounts shared by survivors, the venue went dark when the fire started after the power failed, making it difficult for people to find exits amid the dense smoke.

Authorities continue to investigate the incident, including whether any safety lapses contributed to the high number of casualties.

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