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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

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Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

~By Saeed Naqvi

The Byzantine and Roman sites of Ebla and Idlib, in North West Syria, may well be reduced to dust if an explosion occurs on a scale many expect. Sadly these archaeological losses will not even be noticed. They will be submerged in the looming human catastrophe.

Ever since the manufactured civil war was launched in 2011 to turn the tables on the Arab Spring, the Syrian theatre has seen many climaxes: Homs, Hama, Deraa, Raqqa, Aleppo, 50 kms, North East of Idlib. But there is unanimity that Idlib will shake the region like nothing else has so far. This hyperbole is not based on personal observational, though I have visited Syria in the midst of the civil war.

White House National Security Adviser, John Bolton has been warning repeatedly that the Syrian government was about to use chemical weapons in Idlib. Even before Bolton’s warning, Hassan Nasrallah, much the shrewdest leader in the region, had raised an alarm: we have information that a plot was being hatched to foist on Damascus the allegation that it had used chemical weapons. The alert eye being kept on Idlib by the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US exposes a population of three million to all manner of unpredictabilities.

It is an irony of our times that great and medium powers are riveted on Idlib not because its ancient monuments or the civilian population but because of the 60 to 80 thousand of militants scattered through the governorate. These militants are from half a dozen different groups. There are quarrels galore between these groups claiming proximity to major powers with stakes in the Syrian pie. Among the bewildering range of groups are the Al Nusra Front, Haya Tehrir e Shaam, Turkestan Islamic Front with links to Uigur groups in Xinxian. There are off shoots of the PKK, keeping Turkey on sixes and sevens. Not to be forgotten are the Chechens focused on the Caucasus. Then there is the Free Syrian Front.

Read More: Syrian Militants Secretly Flown To Afghanistan, China Raises a Battalion

For Damascus a militant is a militant and should be eliminated. Turkey, on the other hand, may see some groups – Tehrir e Shaam, for instance – as assets in Ankara’s conflict with Kurdish groups. The US would like most of the militant groups to be protected because they will always come in handy whenever it becomes necessary to mount extra pressure on Bashar al Assad. Washington may be inclined to negotiate the future of some of the assets if Assad allowed them more bases in Syria.

Air Bombardment or “Chemical Attack”: Suspense Surround Idlib Endgame

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, even far off Kosovo, everywhere, Americans a super power by habit, if not in substance any longer, develop multiple interests. After the 72 day bombing of Serbia, removing Slobodan Milosevic, creating an independent enclave of Kosovo, the US moved on only after they had created Bond Steel, abutting Macedonia, the largest military base since Vietnam. Likewise, they entered Afghanistan ostensibly to remove Osama bin Laden but have, over the past 17 years, developed multiple interests – minerals, UNOCAL pipeline, Helmand Poppy fields, keeping an eye on the world’s only Muslim nuclear bomb in Pakistan, keeping Iran, Central Asian Republics, Xinxian, the Caucasus under surveillance – and within range.

Read More: Syrian War Being Dragged On Basis Of Lies For Ulterior Reasons

In Idlib too US interests are varied. Notice I have not mentioned Syria because that involvement is of epic proportions. Idlib in Syria is the enclave where all the regional and global stakeholders, have nudged and pushed their respective “militants”, “terrorists” and “moderate groups”. For Syria, Russia and Iran they are all the same and need to be exterminated.

This remedy is anathema to Turkey. The country is already host to 3.5 million refugees. Bombing of Idlib will cause another 2.5 million civilian to cross the Turkish border.

Further, there are among the motley crowd of militants those who will checkmate a “Kurdish enclave” contiguous with the territory the PKK claims. The enclave would be the thin end of the wedge for an expansive Kurdish idea.

The US would like to create just such an enclave. Not only would it like to have bases, an American habit as I have indicated earlier, but it would have another potential state under its control. It would be the second home away from home in West Asia just as Israel is – on a much smaller scale though.

Read More: Saudi Crown Prince, Trump Together Staring At Syrian Exit Door

The other, bigger idea is to divide Syria to the satisfaction of Israel and those with a steady gaze on the gas pipelines. The idea of dividing Syria into four is as old as the hills. But all the other powers – Iran, Turkey, Russia, for instance – will not allow this to happen. When the three powers met in Tehran last week there was unanimity on one issue: the territorial integrity of Syria.

The presence of 1000 European Jihadis in the brew adds further pungency to the vapours of confusion. The great European nations, their noses up, do not wish these “tainted” citizens to return. Should they be put away then? No, say European Intelligence agencies. There are so many “militants”, “terrorists”, “moderate rebels” in Idlib. Let the Europeans gestate among them.

How long will this uneasy status quo last? Already, Russians have detected activity on the “chemical weapons” Front. There are reports that cameramen have already shot little boys being bathed to remove the “chemicals they have been exposed to”. White Helmets, the miracle men who save people by appearing in the epicentre of the attack without being burnt have been seen here and there.

Remember, the eight year old Syrian boy with burnt skin in October 2016, in the midst of the US election campaign. CNN’s Christiane Amanpour flourished a photograph of the boy before Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov in the course of an interview in Moscow.

“Is this not a crime against humanity?” shouted Amanpour.

“Very sad” said an amused Lavrov. This was the first time Lavrov publicly expressed the fear that Americans were helping terrorists in Syria.

When the photograph did not make much of an impression on the Russian Foreign Minister, the very same photograph materialized in candidate Hillary Clinton’s hand during the last Presidential debate in Las Vegas. With expert histrionics, Clinton simulated a lump in her throat for maximum effect.

Is Idlib about to yield a crop of pictures of white helmets and little boys with burns?

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PM Modi’s Canada visit could help wrap trade talks, says Canada PM Mark Carney

Canadian PM Mark Carney said he is looking forward to hosting PM Narendra Modi, with both countries aiming to conclude their ongoing trade negotiations.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said he is looking forward to hosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as India and Canada continue efforts to advance their bilateral relationship and conclude ongoing trade negotiations.

The two countries have been working towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with both sides previously setting a target to conclude the negotiations in 2026.

Carney and Modi have held discussions on strengthening economic ties between India and Canada, including trade and investment. Their engagement has gained momentum following Carney’s visit to India earlier this year.

India-Canada trade talks

India and Canada formally resumed efforts towards a broader trade agreement after a period of strained bilateral ties. The two sides have committed to advancing negotiations on a CEPA covering their economic relationship.

In June, Carney and Modi reviewed progress in bilateral economic cooperation during their meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France. They expressed satisfaction with the progress in CEPA negotiations and reaffirmed their shared objective of concluding the talks in 2026.

During Carney’s visit to India in March, the two leaders had also agreed to accelerate negotiations on the CEPA and work towards finalising the agreement during 2026.

Modi’s proposed Canada visit

Carney had invited PM Modi to visit Canada in 2026, and the two leaders agreed to remain engaged through diplomatic channels to work towards a mutually convenient date for the visit.

The proposed visit comes as New Delhi and Ottawa seek to build on renewed diplomatic and economic engagement, with trade negotiations remaining a key part of the relationship.

The focus on completing the trade talks comes as both countries look to expand commercial ties and establish a broader economic framework through the proposed CEPA.

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Trump issues fresh Iran warning at UN General Assembly, signals deal after midterms

US President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran during his UN General Assembly address, saying he faces a choice between a deal and further escalation.

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US President Donald Trump used his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday to outline what he described as a major decision over Iran, putting the possibility of a deal against further military escalation.

Speaking at the UN in New York, Trump said he had a “big decision” to make. He questioned whether the United States should pursue an agreement that would allow Iran to rebuild or instead take further action against the Islamic Republic.

Trump later indicated that he believed an agreement with Iran could be reached after the US midterm elections, which are scheduled for November 3.

Trump says deal with Iran remains possible

During his speech, Trump presented two possible paths. He said a deal could allow Iran to rebuild and become a stronger country, while also raising the possibility of destroying the Islamic Republic if an agreement was not reached.

Trump said he believed a deal could eventually be reached, arguing that Iran was waiting to see the outcome of the US midterm elections.

His comments came amid the continuing US-Iran conflict and renewed diplomatic activity surrounding the confrontation. Trump’s UN appearance came as Washington was also engaged in discussions with multiple international leaders over the Iran conflict and other global issues.

Iranian delegation walks out during Trump’s speech

The Iranian delegation reportedly left the General Assembly chamber as Trump began describing the military confrontation with Iran.

According to the report, only one person from the Iranian delegation remained seated as Trump spoke about the conflict and the military strikes of the past six months.

The walkout came as tensions between Washington and Tehran remained high, with both sides facing pressure over the continuation of the conflict.

Trump’s latest warning follows earlier comments

Trump’s UN remarks came days after he said he was approaching a major decision over whether to intensify military action against Iran or pursue another route.

He had also indicated before his UN appearance that he could be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly in New York.

The possibility of renewed negotiations comes against the backdrop of continuing military and diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

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Visegrad Group backs India’s bid for permanent UN Security Council seat

India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat received collective backing from the four Visegrad Group countries at a meeting in New York.

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India’s campaign for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council received fresh backing from four Central European countries at a meeting on the sidelines of the 81st UN General Assembly in New York.

The Visegrad Group, comprising Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, backed India’s call for permanent membership of the UN Security Council.

The support came during the first V4+India foreign ministers’ meeting involving External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his counterparts from the four-member grouping.

What Slovakia said on India’s UNSC bid

Slovak Foreign and European Affairs Minister Juraj Blanar said the four Visegrad countries agreed that India should have a permanent place on the UN Security Council.

Blanar described India as a country from the Global South and an emerging power in the Indo-Pacific region while expressing the group’s support for India’s permanent membership.

The statement was made after the meeting with Jaishankar in New York.

India has been seeking reform of the Security Council, including permanent membership, arguing for greater representation of today’s global political landscape.

India and V4 agree to deepen cooperation

The meeting was not limited to the Security Council issue. Jaishankar said India and the four Visegrad countries agreed to strengthen cooperation across several areas.

The countries agreed to hold annual meetings of foreign ministers and establish an annual business forum to deepen economic engagement.

The discussions also covered technology and innovation, research and education, defence, space, connectivity, culture and people-to-people relations.

Jaishankar described the first V4+India meeting as a “new historic occasion” and said India had very good relations with the four countries.

The ministers also discussed major international developments, including the conflict in Ukraine and developments in the Gulf.

What is the Visegrad Group?

The Visegrad Group, also known as V4, is a regional grouping of four Central European countries — Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

The group was established in 1991 and provides a platform for cooperation in areas including political, economic, security and other matters.

India seeks permanent seat on UN Security Council

The UN Security Council currently has 15 members, including five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — and 10 non-permanent members elected for two-year terms.

India has been seeking comprehensive reform of the Security Council and a permanent seat as part of that process.

The backing from the Visegrad Group adds four more countries to the list of nations supporting India’s permanent-membership demand. However, the V4 countries’ support by itself does not change the existing structure of the Security Council or complete the UN reform process. Any expansion would require the necessary agreement among UN member states and changes to the UN Charter.

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