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Five states Assembly Polls: Far cry from BJP dream of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]While the final results would come in, in an hour or so, the trends are clear and some broad conclusions can be drawn from the available facts.

First and foremost, the BJP is nowhere near achieving Amit Shah’s declared aim of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ (Congress-less Bharat). Rather, in a belt cutting across the middle of India’s map, it is the BJP that got a bloody nose and lost out to the grand old party in a direct contest. The Congress is, thus, very much in the game.

The elections also signify the erosion of ‘Modi magic’ and the halt of the ‘wave’ that BJP has been raucously shouting about.

These were state elections, and local factors – especially the fact that BJP had been in power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, three terms in a row in the latter two – mattered heavily. However, Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s hectic campaigning in all these states put his own status at stake. Not only was he projected as the ‘winning factor’ by the BJP, he himself went around declaring that it was a contest between ‘naamdar’ (referring to Rahul Gandhi, implying he owes his status to his family’s name) and ‘kaamdaar’ (Modi himself).

Taking him at his own word, Modi has been made to bite the dust.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi has reasons to be happy. His critics had often mocked that the Congress under him has never won any election. These results have wiped out that ‘stigma, and how!

The results boost the Congress morale but, going by the nature of the party, that is about all. It is not likely to learn any lessons. Rather, the results may also boost the ‘negatives’ in the party. Essentially – and increasingly – opportunist now, it could become more convinced about going the ‘Hindutva’ way.

The Congress may also become less accommodating to allies and hamper the formation of an alliance against the BJP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Chhattisgarh

Belying every analyst and pollster’s prediction, the Congress is way ahead of BJP in Chhattisgarh, with a 10 per cent lead over BJP in vote share (43% against 33%).The biggest casualty in this tribal state is Ajit Jogi, whose Janta Congress Chhattisgarh failed miserably in making an impact and didn’t even get into double digits in an assembly of 90.

   

(Source: Election Commission website at 5:15pm)

 Rajasthan

In Rajasthan, again, the trends do not match the forecasts. While the Congress is ahead, the BJP has not done very badly – despite palpable anti-incumbency factor against the Vasundhara Raje government. The Congress managed a slender majority rather than the landslide win many had expected. The Congress vote share was 39.1% against BJP’s 38.6% – a margin of only 0.5%.

(Source: Election Commission website at 5:15pm)

Madhya Pradesh

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress edged ahead of BJP in a close, see-saw contest and was past the midway mark of 115 – with leads in 117 seats at 5pm. A party needs 116 seats for a majority in the 230-member assembly. In terms of vote share, the BJP and Congress were tied at 41.4% each.

(Source: Election Commission website at 5:15pm)

Telangana

In Telangana, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao’s (KCR) Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) was headed for a thumping majority. KCR’s gamble to call for early elections has paid off and the state has stayed with the party credited for its formation. TRS has its candidates ahead in nearly 90 constituencies with a vote share of 47.1%.

The state witnessed a two-way fight between TRS and Praja Kutami, or the grand alliance, which includes Congress, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Telangana Jan Samithi (TJS) and CPI.

The BJP contested the state alone with the TDP walking out of National Democratic Alliance earlier this year. People’s Front ally TDP is heading in one and Owaisi’s AIMIM that backed TRS in five.

(Source: Election Commission website at 5:15pm)

Mizoram

In Mizoram, the regional Mizo National Front has dislodged the Congress government.

MNF president and former Mizoram chief minister Zoramthanga, who ran the state between 1998 and 2008, was reported by NDTV as saying, “I have a strong belief that I don’t need any other party and particularly the BJP to form government.”

Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla, who contested from Champhai South and Serchhip, has lost both the seats. He lost Champhai to Mizo National Front’s (MNF) TJ Lalnuntluanga, while Serchhip was snatched by Zoram People’s Movement’s (ZPM) chief ministerial candidate Lalduhoma.

The 76-year-old Congress leader has been the chief minister since December 2008. In the 2013 assembly elections, he became the chief minister for the fifth time, a record in Mizoram.

The state with a population of about 10 lakh is seen by the BJP as the “final frontier” in the northeast as it is in power in all other states of the region — either by winning polls or aligning with regional parties.

The MNF, which has been out of power for 10 years, has been optimistic about the win. Their hope is hinged on the history of the state where governments change every 10 years.

(Source: Election Commission website at 5:15pm)[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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CJP leaders Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka, Ajinkya Shinde sent to 5-day judicial custody

Three CJP leaders, Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde, were placed under preventive arrest following a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar over Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

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Three leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) — Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde — have been placed under preventive arrest in connection with a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar, where demonstrators demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

The three were detained early Tuesday after crossing police barricades and entering Jantar Mantar, which was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues. A case was registered against them over their alleged actions.

According to the police case, the charges include trespassing, violation of a bond, and obstructing a public official from performing official duties.

The three leaders were produced before a Special Court of the Executive Magistrate on Wednesday and could be sent to judicial custody at Tihar Jail.

Why CJP leaders protested at Jantar Mantar

The protest comes amid demonstrations by the CJP and opposition groups over alleged irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

The protesters were demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. The controversy centres on allegations concerning the electoral roll revision exercise, which the Election Commission and the BJP have denied.

Jantar Mantar was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues in Delhi. The change followed an order naming alternative locations for demonstrations, prompting criticism from groups that want to hold protests at the established site.

CJP legal team raises concerns over detention

Ratna Singh, head of the CJP legal team, said in a post on X that Delhi Police had arrested Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde at Parliament Street Police Station in connection with the Jantar Mantar case.

Singh alleged that the three were brought to the police station in a private van at around 3 am and were not allowed to meet their lawyers until late at night.

She also raised concerns about the legal process and the possibility of the leaders being sent to judicial custody.

The allegations regarding access to legal counsel were made by the CJP legal team and should be distinguished from the charges registered by the police.

The arrests mark another development in the ongoing dispute over protests at Jantar Mantar and the CJP’s campaign against the Chief Election Commissioner over the SIR exercise.

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BJP focuses on religion as opposition pushes BDM strategy in UP

The BJP is emphasising religious issues ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, while opposition parties are seeking to consolidate Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. Recent exchanges involving Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav and Asaduddin Owaisi have added to the political contest over the state’s electoral narrative.

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Ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP is emphasising religious issues, while opposition parties are seeking to build a coalition of Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. The competing approaches have brought caste representation and religious messaging to the forefront of the state’s political discourse.

Recent temple-related controversies in Kashi, Ayodhya, Mathura and Sambhal have brought religious messaging back into the political conversation. The developments have also coincided with exchanges between Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav over possible electoral contests.

Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav trade election challenges

The latest round of political exchanges followed Yogi Adityanath’s invocation of the “80-20” formula during the Rajya Sabha election. Akhilesh Yadav subsequently challenged the Chief Minister to contest from Ayodhya.

During his visit to Ayodhya, the Samajwadi Party president attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan. His visit, during which he attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan, became another point of political discussion.

The Chief Minister responded during a visit to Balrampur, asking Akhilesh Yadav to contest against him.

The exchanges continued as political leaders questioned the Samajwadi Party chief’s religious outreach. State minister Om Prakash Rajbhar asked why Yadav had not visited Mathura, while AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi challenged him to contest from Sambhal.

Responding to questions about the challenges, Akhilesh Yadav said the Chief Minister does not decide which candidates the parties nominate.

At a press conference in Lucknow, Yadav also remarked, “What could be better than getting the Chief Minister’s chair without even contesting the election?” His comment suggested that Adityanath might not contest the Assembly elections.

Adityanath, meanwhile, said he was pleased to have several options available to him.

BJP works on its own caste coalition

Alongside its emphasis on religious issues, the BJP is also seeking to broaden its social support base through caste representation.

During the Rajya Sabha elections, the party fielded three candidates from Backward Classes, two Dalits, two Brahmins and one Rajput. The Backward Class candidates included representatives of the Pal, Kurmi and Lodh communities.

The report describes the BJP’s selection of candidates from the Sonkar and Rawat communities as an attempt to attract support among the Gaur and Jatav Dalit vote banks. Its selection of two Brahmins and one Rajput was also part of its outreach to upper-caste voters.

These choices reflect the BJP’s efforts to build a social coalition that extends beyond its religious messaging as the state approaches the next Assembly election.

Akhilesh Yadav balances caste outreach with temple politics

The Samajwadi Party is also combining its BDM approach with religious outreach, described in the report as “soft Hindutva”.

Akhilesh Yadav is overseeing the construction of the Kedareshwar Temple in Etawah. When questioned about not visiting the Ram Mandir during his Ayodhya trip, he said he was waiting for the temple’s “Pran Pratishtha”, or consecration ceremony, implying that the ceremony held in 2024 did not count.

Yadav has also raised the issue of alleged theft of offerings at the Ram Temple, a move the report interprets as an attempt to appeal to Hindu voters.

The competing strategies indicate that caste representation, religious issues and temple-related controversies are all featuring in political messaging ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.

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L Murugan quits Union ministry to strengthen BJP in Tamil Nadu

L Murugan has resigned from his Union ministerial post and Rajya Sabha membership, saying he wants to return to grassroots politics and dedicate himself to strengthening the BJP in Tamil Nadu before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

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L Murugan

L Murugan has resigned from his position as Union Minister of State and his Rajya Sabha membership, saying he wants to return to grassroots politics and work towards strengthening the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Tamil Nadu ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Murugan, who held the portfolios of Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary Affairs, announced his decision in a post on X on Tuesday, October 13. He described his time in the Union government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership as a great honour and said he wanted to devote himself full-time to the party’s work in Tamil Nadu.

L Murugan says he wants to return to grassroots politics

In his post, Murugan expressed gratitude for the opportunity to serve in the Union Council of Ministers and highlighted his background as the son of daily-wage labourers.

He said he now wished to return to the grassroots, stand alongside BJP workers and dedicate his time to strengthening the party in Tamil Nadu before the next Lok Sabha elections.

Murugan’s stated objective is to help expand the BJP’s presence in the state and contribute to the party’s performance in the 2029 general elections.

Murugan’s resignation comes amid Cabinet reshuffle speculation

His decision comes amid speculation about a possible reshuffle in the Union government. The discussion gained momentum after several Rajya Sabha MPs and ministers, including Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, were not renominated.

However, the report does not establish that the speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle was the reason for Murugan’s resignation. His publicly stated reason was his desire to return to grassroots work and strengthen the BJP in Tamil Nadu.

Murugan thanks PM Modi for the opportunity to serve

Murugan described serving India and Tamil Nadu under Modi’s leadership as one of the greatest privileges of his life. He also referred to his journey from a family of daily-wage labourers to the Union Council of Ministers.

His announcement places his immediate political focus on Tamil Nadu, with the BJP’s preparations for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections forming a central part of his stated plans.

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