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The Trumpean Paradox

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Donald Trump

Cool towards new friends while strong-arming frenemies, the US president’s first fortnight is a study in contradictory decision-making

By Sujit Bhar

Here are some weird weekend vignettes from the US of A.

President Donald J Trump somehow forgot how bally-ho Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at his election, ordering more settlements to be built on disputed Palestinian territory. Netanyahu’s decision was to build 3,600 new homes on Palestinian territory in the West Bank.

The White House released a statement on February 2, saying: “While we don’t believe the existence of settlements is an impediment to peace, the construction of new settlements or the expansion of existing settlements beyond the current borders may not be helpful.”

White House spokesman Sean Spicer added: “The Trump administration has not taken an official position on settlement activity and looks forward to continuing discussions, including with Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu when he visits with President Trump later this month.”

There has been a combined gulp of disbelief within the American borders, while Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, has been careful in what he had to say. He reportedly told Israel Radio: “It’s too early to tell… I would not categorise this as a U-turn by the US administration but the issue is clearly on their agenda… the issue will be discussed when the prime minister (Netanyahu) meets the president in Washington. We will not always agree on everything.”

Fair enough. But, wait, there is more, and it has nothing to do with Trump aide Kellyanne Conway’s obtuse reference to an imaginary “Bowling Green massacre” in Kentucky where many people who did not die apparently didn’t even get  mentioned in the national media because it just “did not cover” this non-incident. Of course, Conway apologised later for her imagination run awry, but we are here to talk more important things that Trump has done.

Yes, the other incident, that did actually happen, has to do with Trump’s new buddy-buddy, Vladimir Putin, the Russian chief executive. This was the other massive combined “gulp” incident.

US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, was giving her inaugural statement when she went ahead and condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine. America’s far rightist electorate was aghast. How is this India-origin ex Governor of South Carolina making such sacrilegious statements?

Said Haley: “I consider it unfortunate that the occasion of my first appearance is one in which I must condemn the aggressive actions of Russia. It is unfortunate because it is a replay of too many instances over many years in which United States representatives have had to do that.”

Mind this, The New York Post’s observation is that this comment might actually improve the image of Trump.

Haley warned, it has been reported, saying: “This escalation of violence must stop. The United States stands with the people of Ukraine who have suffered for nearly three years under Russian occupation and military intervention.”

Hmm. So that was a weird weekend, right? Hold it, that isn’t all. Trump became Trump again in issuing another order through which he slapped sanctions on Iran over its missile test. The signals are so mixed, even the die-hard Trump follower would be left scratching his/her White Supremacist head.

That too happened on February 3.

Technically, this has nothing o do with the nuclear treaty with Iran that the Barack Obama administration so meticulously put together and Trump criticised. This was to purportedly “mark a more aggressive approach by the Trump administration to counter Tehran’s ballistic missile development and support for militant groups across the Middle East,” as USA Today put it.

The daily asked and answered some key questions. First question it handled was the timing.

Regarding last Sunday’s missile test by Iran, the daily quoted a senior administration official: “The sanctions are initial steps to retaliate for provocative actions that violate regional norms.” Interestingly, the daily points out that the official was speaking anonymously, because he “was not authorized to speak publicly on the subject.”

The daily then came to the critical question. Could all this lead to yet another war? Guess the reading from the Trump side? In the 1988 Iran-Iraq war, when the US took Iraq’s side Iran supposedly developed weak knees and negotiated peace. And the reading was also that Iran was made to sit at the negotiating table regarding the nuclear deal when it was scared the US would invade it, because there was now the precedent of the US having already invaded Iraq.

So, yes, no war; Iran is scared.

Without going into the after-effects of the George Bush-led misadventure with the “The Axis of Evil”, one must realise that the first two actions do clash with this one. How’s that?

Of course, Trump had already signed the executive order banning the entry of refugees and even visa holders from seven Muslim countries. That had already created a massive uproar with several federal courts simply rejecting the order.

Are you counting? That’s 2-2 actually. Two against and two self-goals.

Phew! That was some crazy week at office. So Trump takes off for his first presidential holiday, in the weekend. While you are reading this, he is relaxing with family and acolytes at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach. A fortnight at his job and he is tired.

That’s Trump 3 vs Trump 2.

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US ends oil sanctions waiver for Iran and Russia, impact likely on India’s energy imports

The US decision to end the Iran and Russia oil waiver may impact India’s oil imports, fuel prices and global energy markets.

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US oil tanker

The United States has decided not to extend a temporary sanctions waiver that allowed limited trade in Iranian and Russian oil, marking a shift towards stricter enforcement of economic restrictions.

The waiver, introduced in March 2026, had permitted the sale of oil already loaded on ships to stabilise global supply during heightened geopolitical tensions. However, it is now set to expire around mid-April without renewal.

US officials have indicated that the move is part of a broader strategy to increase pressure on both Iran and Russia amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

What the waiver did and why it mattered

The short-term waiver allowed millions of barrels of oil—estimated at around 140 million barrels—to enter global markets, helping ease supply shortages and prevent sharp price spikes.

It also enabled countries like India to purchase discounted crude oil from Russia and resume limited imports from Iran after years of restrictions.

Impact on India

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, is expected to feel the impact of the decision in several ways:

  • Reduced access to discounted oil
    India had been buying cheaper Russian crude and recently resumed Iranian imports under the waiver. Its end may limit these options.
  • Potential rise in fuel costs
    With fewer discounted supplies available, India may need to rely more on costlier sources, which could increase domestic fuel prices.
  • Supply diversification pressure
    India may need to explore alternative suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, or the US to maintain energy security.
  • Geopolitical balancing challenge
    The move adds pressure on India to align with US sanctions while managing its own economic interests.

Global energy market concerns

The end of the waiver comes at a time when global oil markets are already under stress due to conflict in West Asia and disruptions in key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn that tightening sanctions could:

  • Reduce global oil supply
  • Increase price volatility
  • Intensify competition among major buyers like India and China

Bigger picture

The US decision reflects a broader shift from temporary relief measures to stricter enforcement of sanctions, even if it risks tightening global energy markets.

For India, the development highlights a recurring challenge—balancing affordable energy access with geopolitical realities.

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Sanctioned tanker fails to breach US blockade, turns back near Strait of Hormuz

A US-sanctioned tanker failed to cross the Hormuz blockade and turned back, underscoring rising tensions and disruption in global shipping routes.

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A US-sanctioned oil tanker failed to break through a newly imposed American naval blockade and was forced to turn back near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting growing tensions in the region.

The vessel, identified as the Rich Starry, reversed its course after attempting to exit the Gulf, according to shipping data. The development comes just days after the United States enforced restrictions on ships linked to Iranian ports.

The blockade was announced by Donald Trump following the collapse of recent diplomatic talks with Iran. The move aims to restrict maritime traffic associated with Iranian trade.

Officials said that during the first 24 hours of enforcement, no vessel successfully crossed the blockade. Several ships, including the sanctioned tanker, complied with instructions from US forces and turned back toward regional waters.

The tanker is reported to be linked to a Chinese company previously sanctioned for dealing with Iran. It was carrying a cargo of methanol loaded from the United Arab Emirates at the time of the incident.

The situation underscores the rising risks in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles a significant share of global energy shipments, but traffic has sharply declined due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The blockade, which applies specifically to vessels travelling to or from Iranian ports, has added further uncertainty for shipping companies, insurers and global energy markets.

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Jaishanakar discusses Middle East crisis with Kuwait and Singapore counterparts, focus on Indian community

Jaishankar holds talks with Kuwait and Singapore counterparts on West Asia tensions, highlights Indian community safety.

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India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held discussions with his counterparts from Kuwait and Singapore amid the ongoing crisis in West Asia, focusing on regional developments and the safety of Indian nationals.

In separate telephonic conversations, Jaishankar exchanged views with Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah and Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. The discussions come at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East region.

According to details shared by the minister, his conversation with the Kuwaiti counterpart primarily revolved around the evolving regional situation and the well-being of the Indian community residing in Kuwait.

He described the interaction as a constructive exchange, highlighting India’s continued attention to the safety and interests of its citizens abroad during the crisis.

In a separate interaction with Singapore’s foreign minister, Jaishankar said the two sides discussed the ongoing conflict in West Asia and its broader implications.

The talks reflect India’s ongoing diplomatic engagement with key global partners as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, impacting regional stability and international concerns.

The latest outreach is part of a series of high-level communications by India aimed at closely monitoring developments in the region while safeguarding its strategic and humanitarian interests.

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