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AAP to sweep Punjab: Opinion poll

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Voters wait in queue to casting vote during Punjab assembly polls at a polling station in Hoshiarpur on February 4, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Its results indicate UP heading for a hung assembly, BJP winning Uttarakhand

By Nora Chopra

There are clear indications that no party is likely to get a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh. It looks like it is going to be a hung assembly in the country’s most populous state.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Amrish Tyagi, psephologist and son of Janata Dal (United) general secretary KC Tyagi, in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, before the polling in Punjab and Goa on February 4, the BJP can hope to form government only in Uttarakhand. The projected success of the BJP is imputed to the errors of incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat.

Tyagi was a poll consultant with the Donald Trump campaign team and he was tasked to reach out to the Asian community as well as assess its political preferences.

In Punjab where the Aam Aadmi Party had slipped back a few months ago, is back in the race.  Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘jharoo’ (the broom is the poll symbol) party is expected to sweep  its stronghold, Malwa region, which is represented by its three Members of Parliament (MP)s. Malwa region has 69 seats, out of which, according to the survey, the AAP is expected to get 55 to 62 seats. He would need another 10 to 15 seats from outside Malwa to form the government. The Congress is expected to get 45 to 52, and the Akali-BJP alliance 15 to 18 seats. The others will get two-four seats.

In Sikh-dominated Punjab, the assembly election has been fought for the first time between the poor and the rich. It was a class war, says Tyagi. Kejriwal is supposed to have done what even the founder of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Kanshiram, who belonged to Punjab, could not do. BSP had failed to have any impact in the state which has 34 per cent Dalit population, one of the highest in any state in the country. Kejriwal has successfully wooed Dalit voters along with the rural poor. Polling on Sunday saw the voter turnout in rural areas the highest at any time in the past.  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

The Congress was tipped to win in the state this time. Tyagi’s pre-poll survey had given 45 to 52 seats to the party. Captain Amarinder Singh, the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate, faced tough opposition from the Akali candidate and former chief of the army staff (COAS), General JJ Singh, and it is feared that he might even lose the election. Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal, who has been chief minister for 10 years now, has perhaps conceded defeat because he is learnt to have helped the Congress and head of the royal family of Patiala by asking the Akali followers to vote for the Congress candidate.

In this situation, it is the Hindu bloc that has no clear choice. In a normal election, the Hindu voter opted for the Congress and later preferred the BJP. But with the BJP out of reckoning, and the prospects of the Congress looking bleak, the Hindu bloc was left anchorless.  

The poll battle in Uttar Pradesh is the most confusing. Tyagi says no party is likely to get a clear majority. According to the survey he had conducted around January 25, the fight in UP is a triangular. It appears that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 152 to 162 seats, the BSP, the most under-rated party, could win 125 to 135 seats, while the SP-Congress alliance will end in the third spot with 110 to 118 seats. The Congress is likely to fare better than the SP. The others will get 10 to 15 seats.

With each passing day, Tyagi says the scenario appears more confusing than ever. Mayawati seems to be gaining ground by the day.

Much would depend on the first phase of polling in western UP, where the Muslim vote is around  25 per cent and the Dalit vote is about 19 per cent, making her Dalit-Muslim social alliance a formidable force. While the Yadavs are absent in the belt stretching from Saharanpur to Agra. The Congress may boost the staggering fortunes of the SP, but it will not be sufficient for the alliance to win the election in the state. Muslims are unlikely to waste their vote on SP.  Their sole aim is to defeat the BJP. The SP and Congress blundered by not aligning with Ajit Singh’s Jat party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) for fear of not getting the Muslim votes and apprehensions that the Jat vote would switch to the BJP.  But they were wrong as RLD, which had nine seats in the last assembly, is likely to raise it to at least 12 to 14, with Muslims and Jats again coming together. Meanwhile, Mayawati has given 100 tickets to Muslims. She is likely to sweep western UP.  In such a scenario, the Congress is unlikely to fare as well as it was expected to do.

In the Yadav belt of central UP, the SP-Congress alliance is likely to do better. But here too, Shivpal Yadav, the disgruntled uncle of the UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, has vowed to take his revenge.  He can get the Yadav votes transferred to either the BJP or the BSP. He has already sent many of his followers to BSP, the last one being Mukhtar Ansari. Ansari is strong in east UP, but he can influence Muslim votes all over the state.

The BJP is banking on its traditional upper caste votes in east UP. Here, it will face competition from the Congress, which is working to get back its traditional upper caste votes. The BJP has worked overtime on the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes/Castes (OBC) vote. BJP president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s selective attacks on the SP are a strategy to split the Muslim votes, who they think will vote for the SP-Congress. The BJP’s top duo is not attacking the BSP for fear that the Muslims will favour Mayawati.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has all reasons to be confident. According to Tyagi’s opinion poll the ruling Congress is likely to get 23 to 28 seats, and the BJP 36 to 41 seats. The rest will get three to six seats.

It is the infighting within the party that will cost the Congress dear.  Here, it is mainly the Brahmin consolidation which was complete after Narain Dutt Tiwari quit the party to join the BJP, courtesy Chief Minister Harish Rawat. Rawat is alleged to have pushed the Brahmins into BJP, starting with Vijay Bahuguna.

Besides the Brahmin consolidation, the other issue boosting BJP’s fortunes in the hill state is that of the surgical strike. Surgical strike may not help the BJP anywhere but it is supposed to be a big issue in Uttarakhand because every family here has or had a member in the army.

(Views expressed in this article are those of the author, and they do not reflect the stand of this news website.)       [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Sharad Pawar admitted to Mumbai hospital hours after Pune discharge

NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar was admitted to Mumbai’s Breach Candy Hospital hours after being discharged from Pune’s Ruby Hall Clinic, where he had been undergoing medical observation following complaints of cough and chest pain.

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Sharad Pawar

Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) chief Sharad Pawar was admitted to Mumbai’s Breach Candy Hospital on Wednesday, just hours after being discharged from Pune’s Ruby Hall Clinic. His daughter and Baramati MP Supriya Sule confirmed the development in a social media post, saying that the veteran politician was being admitted for further medical tests.

The 85-year-old leader had been discharged from Ruby Hall Clinic earlier on Wednesday after being admitted on November 2 following complaints of cough and pleuritic chest pain.

Confirming his admission to the Mumbai hospital, Supriya Sule said, “We are admitting Baba to Breach Candy Hospital for further tests. Thank you all for your concern and good wishes.”

Pawar’s latest hospitalisation came after he had undergone medical tests and observation during his stay at the Pune facility. Sule had earlier said that his health parameters were stable.

Why was Sharad Pawar admitted to hospital?

Sharad Pawar was initially admitted to Pune’s Ruby Hall Clinic on November 2 after experiencing complaints of cough and pleuritic pain, a form of chest pain that generally becomes worse while breathing, coughing or sneezing.

Dr Purvez K Grant, chief cardiologist, chairman and managing trustee of Ruby Hall Clinic, had said that Pawar was admitted for a general health check-up and medical observation following complaints of pleuritic pain.

During his hospital stay, Supriya Sule had informed that Pawar was undergoing medical tests and that his health parameters remained stable.

He was subsequently discharged from the Pune hospital on Wednesday. However, hours later, his family decided to admit him to Mumbai’s Breach Candy Hospital for further medical examinations.

PM Modi calls Sharad Pawar, advises complete rest

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also spoke to Sharad Pawar over the phone on Wednesday morning to enquire about his health.

According to Pawar’s aide Vitthal Maniyar, the Prime Minister spoke to the NCP (SP) chief and advised him to take complete rest.

Maniyar said Modi told Pawar that his daughter Supriya Sule and others were ready to take care of the country, and that the veteran politician should focus on his health.

Pawar thanked the Prime Minister for enquiring about his well-being, the aide said.

Maniyar also said that Pawar told Modi that he was resting and had no worries about the country, as others were there to take care of things.

The latest hospital admission was confirmed by Supriya Sule, who said her father was being taken to Breach Candy Hospital for further tests.

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Ramayana Day 1 Box Office: Ranbir Kapoor film eyes Rs. 100 crore-plus opening

Ramayana is expected to make a strong start at the Indian box office, with trade experts projecting a Day 1 opening of around Rs. 100 crore to Rs. 125 crore. The film’s China prospects remain uncertain.

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Ramayana Teaser

Nitesh Tiwari’s Ramayana is heading for a potentially massive opening at the Indian box office, with trade experts predicting that the film could collect more than Rs. 100 crore on its first day.

The film, starring Ranbir Kapoor, Yash and Sai Pallavi, is scheduled for theatrical release on November 5. Produced by Namit Malhotra, the mythological epic has generated significant expectations because of its cast, scale, music and visual effects.

Trade analyst Ramesh Bala has given the most optimistic domestic opening estimate, expecting around Rs. 125 crore gross in India on Day 1. He believes the Hindi version and the film’s premium-format availability could help drive its opening, particularly across the Hindi-speaking markets.

Exhibitor and trade analyst Akshaye Rathi has offered a slightly more conservative estimate, putting the film’s nationwide opening at around Rs. 100 crore or more across languages. He noted that the pre-Diwali release period could influence the opening numbers because audiences are occupied with Diwali preparations and shopping.

Veteran trade analyst Komal Nahta also expects the film to reach the Rs. 100-crore range across languages. His estimate is around Rs. 60 crore for the Hindi version, with the total across all languages potentially reaching Rs. 100 crore or more.

Ramayana vs Dhurandhar 2

One of the key box-office questions is whether Ramayana can surpass the opening-day performance of Dhurandhar 2.

Trade experts are cautious about making that comparison. Bala expects a strong opening but pointed out that Dhurandhar 2 benefited from being a sequel and having substantial pre-release hype.

Nahta believes Ramayana is unlikely to surpass Dhurandhar 2 on Day 1, partly because of the timing of its release. Rathi also expects a strong start but highlighted the pre-Diwali period as a factor that could affect the film’s initial numbers.

These are trade projections, rather than confirmed box-office figures. The actual Day 1 collection will depend on occupancy, spot bookings and audience response after the film’s release.

Why Ramayana has strong box-office potential

The film has several factors working in its favour. Its cast includes Ranbir Kapoor as Ram, Sai Pallavi as Sita and Yash as Ravana, while Nitesh Tiwari is directing the project.

The film also features music by AR Rahman and visual effects from DNEG, giving it a large-scale cinematic presentation. Trade experts believe the combination of mythology, star power and spectacle could attract audiences across different sections of the country.

The familiarity of the Ramayana story is another major factor. Experts believe its cultural and emotional connection with Indian audiences gives the film an advantage that many other releases do not have.

What could happen in China?

China is one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding Ramayana’s overseas prospects.

Nitesh Tiwari’s previous film Dangal had a major run in China, but trade experts have differing views on whether that success can be repeated with Ramayana.

Ramesh Bala has taken a cautious position. He pointed out that Dangal’s success was influenced by several factors and that Ramayana’s mythological subject may not have the same familiarity among Chinese audiences.

Akshaye Rathi, however, sees considerable international potential. He believes that audiences outside India could approach the Ramayana as a fresh story and that effective international marketing could help the film connect with viewers in markets such as China.

Komal Nahta is also optimistic about China and believes the emotional journey of Sita could appeal to Chinese audiences.

The film’s potential in China therefore remains an expectation rather than a confirmed outcome. Its eventual performance will depend on the scale of its release, marketing and audience reception.

Can Ramayana recover its reported budget?

The film has been widely associated with a reported budget of around Rs. 4,000 crore, although trade experts caution that this figure could relate to the two-part project rather than the first instalment alone.

Ramesh Bala suggested that the reported Rs. 4,000 crore figure could cover both parts and said the exact allocation for the first film remains unclear. Komal Nahta estimated the cost of the first part at around Rs. 1,200 crore.

The experts also pointed to non-theatrical revenue, including OTT and satellite rights, as important factors in determining whether the project can recover its investment.

Can Ramayana become India’s biggest film?

The possibility of Ramayana challenging major box-office records is also being discussed ahead of its release.

Bala said the film has the ingredients to compete at the highest level, while Rathi believes it has the potential to become the highest-grossing Indian film worldwide. Nahta, however, has avoided making a definitive prediction before audiences see the film.

The experts also differed on the film’s eventual worldwide theatrical earnings. Bala suggested that it could potentially reach Rs. 1,000-1,500 crore, while Nahta gave an even broader possible range. Rathi did not put a specific figure on it but said the film could potentially reach the top tier of Indian cinema’s global box-office performers.

Ticket prices could affect the opening

Another factor attracting attention is the premium pricing for formats such as IMAX.

Ramesh Bala expects the makers to benefit from higher ticket prices during the initial period but believes prices could come down after the opening week.

Komal Nahta defended the strategy, arguing that the pricing could help a film that has involved such a large reported investment. Audiences who do not want to pay premium prices could instead opt for regular screenings.

Ramayana’s box-office verdict will depend on audience response

While the pre-release projections point towards a major opening, the longer-term performance of Ramayana will ultimately depend on audience reception and word of mouth.

The trade experts broadly agree that the film has the scale, cast and story required for a major theatrical run. However, its actual performance in India, China and other international markets can only be established after its release.

For now, the projections indicate that Ramayana could cross the Rs. 100-crore mark in India on its opening day, while its potential to become one of the biggest Indian films globally remains dependent on how audiences respond to the film.

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India News

Four militants killed as rival Naga groups clash in Manipur village

Four militants were killed in a gunfight between suspected rival Naga groups at Taodaijang village in Manipur’s Noney district on Wednesday.

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Manipur violence

At least four militants were killed in a gunfight between suspected rival Naga militant groups in Manipur’s Noney district on Wednesday, November 4.

The exchange of fire took place at Taodaijang village in the Khoupum area of the Naga-majority district. According to officials, the cadres involved were suspected to belong to rival Naga militant outfits, including the Zeliangrong United Front-Jenchui (ZUF-J) and the Zeliangrong United Front-Kamson (ZUF-K).

Initial reports indicated that the gunfight continued for several hours, leaving three cadres of ZUF-J and one cadre of ZUF-K dead.

The bodies of the deceased militants were subsequently recovered by local residents.

Residents appeal to armed groups to stop firing

Following the gunfight, local residents, including women, reached the spot in an attempt to prevent further violence between the rival groups.

They also used a public address system to appeal to the armed cadres to stop firing and prevent the situation from escalating further.

Further details about the circumstances surrounding the clash were awaited.

Manipur government reviews security situation

In a separate development, Manipur Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh directed senior security officials to identify active armed groups suspected of involvement in recent incidents of violence in the state.

The directive excluded groups engaged in peace talks with the state government.

The Chief Minister issued the instructions during a review meeting on the state’s law and order situation on Tuesday night.

He also asked security agencies, including the Army and central paramilitary forces, to submit a detailed report on the involvement of the suspected groups.

The Chief Minister said the state Cabinet could consider declaring such groups unlawful if their involvement in violence against innocent civilians was established.

He also emphasised that necessary action would be initiated against groups continuing to perpetrate violence against civilians.

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