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AAP to sweep Punjab: Opinion poll

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Voters wait in queue to casting vote during Punjab assembly polls at a polling station in Hoshiarpur on February 4, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Its results indicate UP heading for a hung assembly, BJP winning Uttarakhand

By Nora Chopra

There are clear indications that no party is likely to get a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh. It looks like it is going to be a hung assembly in the country’s most populous state.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Amrish Tyagi, psephologist and son of Janata Dal (United) general secretary KC Tyagi, in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, before the polling in Punjab and Goa on February 4, the BJP can hope to form government only in Uttarakhand. The projected success of the BJP is imputed to the errors of incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat.

Tyagi was a poll consultant with the Donald Trump campaign team and he was tasked to reach out to the Asian community as well as assess its political preferences.

In Punjab where the Aam Aadmi Party had slipped back a few months ago, is back in the race.  Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘jharoo’ (the broom is the poll symbol) party is expected to sweep  its stronghold, Malwa region, which is represented by its three Members of Parliament (MP)s. Malwa region has 69 seats, out of which, according to the survey, the AAP is expected to get 55 to 62 seats. He would need another 10 to 15 seats from outside Malwa to form the government. The Congress is expected to get 45 to 52, and the Akali-BJP alliance 15 to 18 seats. The others will get two-four seats.

In Sikh-dominated Punjab, the assembly election has been fought for the first time between the poor and the rich. It was a class war, says Tyagi. Kejriwal is supposed to have done what even the founder of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Kanshiram, who belonged to Punjab, could not do. BSP had failed to have any impact in the state which has 34 per cent Dalit population, one of the highest in any state in the country. Kejriwal has successfully wooed Dalit voters along with the rural poor. Polling on Sunday saw the voter turnout in rural areas the highest at any time in the past.  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

The Congress was tipped to win in the state this time. Tyagi’s pre-poll survey had given 45 to 52 seats to the party. Captain Amarinder Singh, the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate, faced tough opposition from the Akali candidate and former chief of the army staff (COAS), General JJ Singh, and it is feared that he might even lose the election. Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal, who has been chief minister for 10 years now, has perhaps conceded defeat because he is learnt to have helped the Congress and head of the royal family of Patiala by asking the Akali followers to vote for the Congress candidate.

In this situation, it is the Hindu bloc that has no clear choice. In a normal election, the Hindu voter opted for the Congress and later preferred the BJP. But with the BJP out of reckoning, and the prospects of the Congress looking bleak, the Hindu bloc was left anchorless.  

The poll battle in Uttar Pradesh is the most confusing. Tyagi says no party is likely to get a clear majority. According to the survey he had conducted around January 25, the fight in UP is a triangular. It appears that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 152 to 162 seats, the BSP, the most under-rated party, could win 125 to 135 seats, while the SP-Congress alliance will end in the third spot with 110 to 118 seats. The Congress is likely to fare better than the SP. The others will get 10 to 15 seats.

With each passing day, Tyagi says the scenario appears more confusing than ever. Mayawati seems to be gaining ground by the day.

Much would depend on the first phase of polling in western UP, where the Muslim vote is around  25 per cent and the Dalit vote is about 19 per cent, making her Dalit-Muslim social alliance a formidable force. While the Yadavs are absent in the belt stretching from Saharanpur to Agra. The Congress may boost the staggering fortunes of the SP, but it will not be sufficient for the alliance to win the election in the state. Muslims are unlikely to waste their vote on SP.  Their sole aim is to defeat the BJP. The SP and Congress blundered by not aligning with Ajit Singh’s Jat party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) for fear of not getting the Muslim votes and apprehensions that the Jat vote would switch to the BJP.  But they were wrong as RLD, which had nine seats in the last assembly, is likely to raise it to at least 12 to 14, with Muslims and Jats again coming together. Meanwhile, Mayawati has given 100 tickets to Muslims. She is likely to sweep western UP.  In such a scenario, the Congress is unlikely to fare as well as it was expected to do.

In the Yadav belt of central UP, the SP-Congress alliance is likely to do better. But here too, Shivpal Yadav, the disgruntled uncle of the UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, has vowed to take his revenge.  He can get the Yadav votes transferred to either the BJP or the BSP. He has already sent many of his followers to BSP, the last one being Mukhtar Ansari. Ansari is strong in east UP, but he can influence Muslim votes all over the state.

The BJP is banking on its traditional upper caste votes in east UP. Here, it will face competition from the Congress, which is working to get back its traditional upper caste votes. The BJP has worked overtime on the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes/Castes (OBC) vote. BJP president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s selective attacks on the SP are a strategy to split the Muslim votes, who they think will vote for the SP-Congress. The BJP’s top duo is not attacking the BSP for fear that the Muslims will favour Mayawati.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has all reasons to be confident. According to Tyagi’s opinion poll the ruling Congress is likely to get 23 to 28 seats, and the BJP 36 to 41 seats. The rest will get three to six seats.

It is the infighting within the party that will cost the Congress dear.  Here, it is mainly the Brahmin consolidation which was complete after Narain Dutt Tiwari quit the party to join the BJP, courtesy Chief Minister Harish Rawat. Rawat is alleged to have pushed the Brahmins into BJP, starting with Vijay Bahuguna.

Besides the Brahmin consolidation, the other issue boosting BJP’s fortunes in the hill state is that of the surgical strike. Surgical strike may not help the BJP anywhere but it is supposed to be a big issue in Uttarakhand because every family here has or had a member in the army.

(Views expressed in this article are those of the author, and they do not reflect the stand of this news website.)       [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Supreme Court judge calls police assault on CJP protesters very distressing

Supreme Court judge Justice Ujjal Bhuyan criticised alleged police assaults on CJP protesters and raised concerns over excessive force.

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Supreme Court

Supreme Court judge Justice Ujjal Bhuyan has criticised the assault of protesters by police personnel during the recent CJP demonstrations in Delhi, describing the conduct as “very, very distressing” and a matter of serious concern.

Speaking at the launch of retired IPS officer Yashovardhan Azad’s book Policing the Republic, Justice Bhuyan said the detachment expected from police officers appeared to be diminishing.

He expressed concern over young Indian Police Service officers personally participating in the assault of protesters and demonstrators.

Justice Bhuyan stresses need for responsible policing

Justice Bhuyan said effective policing does not require excessive use of force or infringement of human rights. He emphasised that the police play an important role in maintaining public confidence because citizens generally approach the police when they feel they have been wronged.

He said maintaining the credibility of the police force was therefore of “utmost importance”.

The judge’s remarks come amid continuing scrutiny of the police and paramilitary response to the CJP protests in Delhi.

Supreme Court panel to examine police action

The Supreme Court has constituted a high-level panel to investigate allegations concerning the use of force by Delhi Police during the July 20 student protests at Jantar Mantar and the subsequent Parliament march.

The panel, headed by former Supreme Court judge Justice R Subhash Reddy, will examine complaints relating to lathi charges, tear gas, pellet guns and electronic batons. It will also look into allegations of targeted harassment or molestation of female protesters and review available CCTV and video footage.

The police response during the protests has faced criticism, while Delhi Police has maintained that its personnel were also attacked during the clashes.

Judge raises concern over custodial deaths and torture

Justice Bhuyan also spoke about custodial torture and deaths, describing custodial death as one of the gravest crimes in a society governed by the rule of law.

He stressed that torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment cannot be accepted, regardless of whether such conduct takes place during investigation, interrogation or other circumstances.

The judge further warned that when government functionaries themselves become lawbreakers, it can undermine respect for the law and encourage lawlessness.

He questioned whether citizens lose their fundamental rights simply because they have been arrested by police.

‘Fake encounters’ cannot be part of policing

Justice Bhuyan also addressed allegations of extra-judicial killings, commonly referred to as “fake encounters”. Referring to a 2011 Supreme Court judgment, he said such encounters undermine the rule of law.

He stressed that an “encounter philosophy” cannot become part of legitimate policing and said proven fake encounters involving serving police officers must be treated with the utmost seriousness.

The Supreme Court’s panel will now examine the allegations surrounding the police action during the July 20 protests as scrutiny of the events continues.

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8 Tamil Nadu engineering students killed in Kerala car-lorry crash

Eight engineering students from Tamil Nadu were killed after their car collided with a parked lorry on NH-66 in Kerala’s Thrissur district.

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Eight engineering students from Tamil Nadu were killed after the car they were travelling in crashed into a parked lorry on NH-66 in Kerala’s Thrissur district late Friday night, police said.

The accident took place at around 11.40 pm at Panambikkunnu in Kaipamangalam. The students were travelling from Guruvayur towards Kodungallur when their car collided with the rear of the lorry.

What happened in the Thrissur accident

According to the FIR, the lorry was parked illegally on the right side of the highway near a barricaded section where traffic had been diverted because of ongoing construction work.

Police said the car was travelling at high speed and its driver apparently failed to notice the diversion barricade before the vehicle crashed into the rear of the lorry.

The lorry was registered in Maharashtra.

Six students died at the accident spot, while two others were declared dead on arrival at a nearby hospital, police said.

Six victims identified

The victims were students of an engineering college in Dindigul and were travelling towards Kodungallur along NH-66.

Police have identified six of the eight victims. Four of them — Surya, Yuvasanjith, Vishva and Johua — were from Dindigul. The other two identified victims were Santhosh and Prasanna from Madurai.

The identities of the remaining two students are yet to be confirmed.

Residents, fire and rescue personnel and police took part in the rescue operation and pulled the students from the badly damaged car. The bodies were subsequently taken to the mortuary of Thrissur Medical College.

Case registered against lorry driver

Kaipamangalam police have registered a case against the lorry driver under Section 105 of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita for culpable homicide.

Police said the driver went into hiding shortly after the accident.

The families of the victims were contacted using student identity cards recovered from the bodies. Police said some families were unaware that their children had travelled to Kerala.

Postmortem examinations will begin after the families reach Thrissur Medical College, police said.

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Air India sacks Phuket-Delhi flight pilot after failing drug test

Air India has terminated the Phuket-Delhi flight pilot after a confirmatory test found a psychoactive substance following the August 4 incident.

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Air India has terminated the employment of the pilot-in-command of a Phuket-Delhi flight after he tested positive for a psychoactive substance.

The pilot was in command of flight AI2379, which was travelling from Phuket to Delhi on August 4 when the aircraft suddenly lost altitude over Odisha. The incident left 24 passengers injured.

Air India said the termination was in line with its zero-tolerance policy regarding safety violations and regulatory requirements.

Air India terminates pilot with immediate effect

In a statement, the Tata-owned airline said the pilot-in-command had tested positive for a psychoactive substance.

The airline said that, considering its zero-tolerance approach to violations related to safety, fitness and regulatory requirements, the pilot’s employment had been terminated with immediate effect.

Air India also said it continues to cooperate fully with the investigation into the incident and has provided access to relevant operational, maintenance and technical records.

What happened on the Phuket-Delhi flight?

According to the preliminary findings of the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), the Airbus A320 was carrying 145 people when it experienced the near-simultaneous loss of all three hydraulic systems while cruising at around 36,000 feet.

The technical failure resulted in the autopilot disconnecting and triggered a brief stall warning. The aircraft subsequently lost altitude, resulting in injuries to 24 passengers.

The preliminary report also noted that the pilot tested non-negative for a psychoactive substance in a confirmatory test.

However, the report did not establish that the pilot’s drug-test result caused or contributed to the hydraulic system failure or the subsequent loss of altitude.

AAIB recommends action over psychoactive substance finding

The AAIB described the confirmation of psychoactive substance use as a serious concern and recommended that the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) take appropriate action against the pilot on priority.

The investigation into the technical and other aspects of the incident is still underway.

The preliminary report also noted that the co-pilot was flying the aircraft when the incident occurred and attempted to bring the situation under control.

Air India said safety remains its highest priority and that its pilots undergo training, proficiency checks, medical examinations and other regulatory assessments in accordance with applicable requirements.

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