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AAP to sweep Punjab: Opinion poll

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Voters wait in queue to casting vote during Punjab assembly polls at a polling station in Hoshiarpur on February 4, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Its results indicate UP heading for a hung assembly, BJP winning Uttarakhand

By Nora Chopra

There are clear indications that no party is likely to get a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh. It looks like it is going to be a hung assembly in the country’s most populous state.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Amrish Tyagi, psephologist and son of Janata Dal (United) general secretary KC Tyagi, in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, before the polling in Punjab and Goa on February 4, the BJP can hope to form government only in Uttarakhand. The projected success of the BJP is imputed to the errors of incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat.

Tyagi was a poll consultant with the Donald Trump campaign team and he was tasked to reach out to the Asian community as well as assess its political preferences.

In Punjab where the Aam Aadmi Party had slipped back a few months ago, is back in the race.  Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘jharoo’ (the broom is the poll symbol) party is expected to sweep  its stronghold, Malwa region, which is represented by its three Members of Parliament (MP)s. Malwa region has 69 seats, out of which, according to the survey, the AAP is expected to get 55 to 62 seats. He would need another 10 to 15 seats from outside Malwa to form the government. The Congress is expected to get 45 to 52, and the Akali-BJP alliance 15 to 18 seats. The others will get two-four seats.

In Sikh-dominated Punjab, the assembly election has been fought for the first time between the poor and the rich. It was a class war, says Tyagi. Kejriwal is supposed to have done what even the founder of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Kanshiram, who belonged to Punjab, could not do. BSP had failed to have any impact in the state which has 34 per cent Dalit population, one of the highest in any state in the country. Kejriwal has successfully wooed Dalit voters along with the rural poor. Polling on Sunday saw the voter turnout in rural areas the highest at any time in the past.  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

The Congress was tipped to win in the state this time. Tyagi’s pre-poll survey had given 45 to 52 seats to the party. Captain Amarinder Singh, the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate, faced tough opposition from the Akali candidate and former chief of the army staff (COAS), General JJ Singh, and it is feared that he might even lose the election. Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal, who has been chief minister for 10 years now, has perhaps conceded defeat because he is learnt to have helped the Congress and head of the royal family of Patiala by asking the Akali followers to vote for the Congress candidate.

In this situation, it is the Hindu bloc that has no clear choice. In a normal election, the Hindu voter opted for the Congress and later preferred the BJP. But with the BJP out of reckoning, and the prospects of the Congress looking bleak, the Hindu bloc was left anchorless.  

The poll battle in Uttar Pradesh is the most confusing. Tyagi says no party is likely to get a clear majority. According to the survey he had conducted around January 25, the fight in UP is a triangular. It appears that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 152 to 162 seats, the BSP, the most under-rated party, could win 125 to 135 seats, while the SP-Congress alliance will end in the third spot with 110 to 118 seats. The Congress is likely to fare better than the SP. The others will get 10 to 15 seats.

With each passing day, Tyagi says the scenario appears more confusing than ever. Mayawati seems to be gaining ground by the day.

Much would depend on the first phase of polling in western UP, where the Muslim vote is around  25 per cent and the Dalit vote is about 19 per cent, making her Dalit-Muslim social alliance a formidable force. While the Yadavs are absent in the belt stretching from Saharanpur to Agra. The Congress may boost the staggering fortunes of the SP, but it will not be sufficient for the alliance to win the election in the state. Muslims are unlikely to waste their vote on SP.  Their sole aim is to defeat the BJP. The SP and Congress blundered by not aligning with Ajit Singh’s Jat party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) for fear of not getting the Muslim votes and apprehensions that the Jat vote would switch to the BJP.  But they were wrong as RLD, which had nine seats in the last assembly, is likely to raise it to at least 12 to 14, with Muslims and Jats again coming together. Meanwhile, Mayawati has given 100 tickets to Muslims. She is likely to sweep western UP.  In such a scenario, the Congress is unlikely to fare as well as it was expected to do.

In the Yadav belt of central UP, the SP-Congress alliance is likely to do better. But here too, Shivpal Yadav, the disgruntled uncle of the UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, has vowed to take his revenge.  He can get the Yadav votes transferred to either the BJP or the BSP. He has already sent many of his followers to BSP, the last one being Mukhtar Ansari. Ansari is strong in east UP, but he can influence Muslim votes all over the state.

The BJP is banking on its traditional upper caste votes in east UP. Here, it will face competition from the Congress, which is working to get back its traditional upper caste votes. The BJP has worked overtime on the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes/Castes (OBC) vote. BJP president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s selective attacks on the SP are a strategy to split the Muslim votes, who they think will vote for the SP-Congress. The BJP’s top duo is not attacking the BSP for fear that the Muslims will favour Mayawati.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has all reasons to be confident. According to Tyagi’s opinion poll the ruling Congress is likely to get 23 to 28 seats, and the BJP 36 to 41 seats. The rest will get three to six seats.

It is the infighting within the party that will cost the Congress dear.  Here, it is mainly the Brahmin consolidation which was complete after Narain Dutt Tiwari quit the party to join the BJP, courtesy Chief Minister Harish Rawat. Rawat is alleged to have pushed the Brahmins into BJP, starting with Vijay Bahuguna.

Besides the Brahmin consolidation, the other issue boosting BJP’s fortunes in the hill state is that of the surgical strike. Surgical strike may not help the BJP anywhere but it is supposed to be a big issue in Uttarakhand because every family here has or had a member in the army.

(Views expressed in this article are those of the author, and they do not reflect the stand of this news website.)       [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Rahul Gandhi says air pollution in North India a national emergency, tourism declining, global reputation crumbling

“We need a collective national response, not political blame games,” the Congress leader said on his X handle.

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Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Friday said the air pollution in North India is a national emergency that needs a collective national response and not a political blame game. The Congress leader added that due to air pollution tourism is declining and “our global reputation is crumbling”.

It is a public health crisis that is stealing children’s future and suffocating the elderly, Gandhi said, adding an environmental and economic disaster that is ruining countless lives.

“As Parliament meets in a few days, MPs will all be reminded of the crisis by our irritated eyes and sore throats. It is our responsibility to come together and discuss how India can end this crisis once and for all,” the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha said.

The former Congress chief said the poorest “among us suffer the most”, unable to escape the toxic air surrounding them. Families are gasping for clean air, children are falling sick, and millions of lives are being cut short, he added.

The Rae Bareli MP noted that the pollution cloud covers hundreds of kilometres. He said cleaning it up will require major changes and decisive action from governments, companies, experts, and citizens.

“We need a collective national response, not political blame games,” the Congress leader said on his X handle.

Gandhi also shared a video on a social media platform where he discussed the capital’s air pollution with environmentalist expert Vimalendu Jha. In the video, the Congress leader said he has been facing eye-burning and breathing issues and how the last week in Delhi has been terrible.

He said, “I tell my mother to leave town this month.” Jha explains to Gandhi that the sources of air pollution in Delhi are episodic and perennial. Episodic sources are firecrackers and stubble burning, which affect the month of November. “Vehicular contributes 50 per cent of Delhi’s pollution and construction-related roadside dust is another 30 per cent,” Jha said.

The Air Quality Index in Delhi has been severe since November 16, making it five consecutive days till Wednesday. On November 15, the average AQI was 396 (very poor).

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Indian Navy submarine collides with fishing boat near Goa coast, 2 fishermen missing

A spokesperson from the Navy told the media that eleven crew have been rescued so far.

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Indian Navy submarine collides with fishing boat near Goa coast, 2 fishermen missing

Indian Navy officials on Friday said that an Indian fishing vessel with a crew of 13 collided with an Indian Naval submarine near the Goa coast. 

Following the incident, a massive search and rescue operation has been launched by the Indian Navy, which has deployed six ships and aircraft. Reportedly, while 11 crew have been rescued, two are still missing.

The Ministry of Defence issued a statement and said that the vessel, Marthoma, collided with a Scorpene-class submarine about 70 nautical miles off the Goa coast. It added that search and rescue efforts for the remaining two are underway and are being coordinated with Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre Mumbai (MRCC). It further mentioned that additional assets including from the Coast Guard have been diverted to the area to augment the efforts.

The statement said that the cause of the incident is being investigated. Notably, Scorpene-class submarines are a major part of India’s naval power in the Indian Ocean as they can undertake multifarious types of missions, including anti-surface warfare, anti-submarine warfare, intelligence gathering, mine laying, and area surveillance.

Reports said that the state-of-the-art technology utilised for the construction of the Scorpene-class submarines has ensured superior stealth features such as advanced acoustic silencing techniques, low radiated noise levels, hydro-dynamically optimized shape and the ability to launch a crippling attack on the enemy using precision-guided weapons. Furthermore, the attack can be launched with both torpedoes and tube-launched anti-ship missiles, whilst underwater or on the surface.

Meanwhile, the Indian Navy in its statement said that 13 crew members were aboard the fishing vessel at the time of the collision. It added that while 11 crew have been rescued so far, two fishermen are still reported missing.

A spokesperson from the Navy told the media that eleven crew have been rescued so far. He stated that search and rescue efforts for the remaining two crew members of Marthoma are in progress and are being coordinated with the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC), Mumbai. Additional assets including from the Coast Guard have been diverted to the area to augment the efforts, he continued.

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10 Naxalites killed in encounter in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma

The District Reserve Guard (DRG) and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) continue their search operation in the area.

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Ten Naxalites were killed in an encounter with security forces in the Sukma district of Chhattisgarh on Friday.

The confrontation started in the morning within a forest area under the jurisdiction of the Bhejji police station, where a joint operation was being conducted by security personnel as part of an anti-Naxalite initiative, according to Inspector General of Police (Bastar Range) Sundarraj P. 

This operation was initiated following intelligence regarding the presence of Maoists connected to the Konta and Kistaram area committees, situated in the forested regions around Korajguda, Dantespuram, Nagaram, and Bhandarpadar villages.

So far, the bodies of ten Naxalites have been recovered at the scene. Additionally, a significant cache of weapons was seized, including an INSAS rifle, an AK-47, and a Self Loading Rifle (SLR). 

The District Reserve Guard (DRG) and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) continue their search operation in the area. This incident contributes to the year-to-date total of 207 Naxalite fatalities recorded in various clashes across the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh, comprising seven districts. 

On Wednesday, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai met with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the national capital, North Block. Their discussion focused on developmental progress in Naxal-affected areas of Chhattisgarh and efforts aimed at enhancing peace and stability in these regions. 

The Chief Minister emphasised that both the state government and security forces are diligently working to eradicate Naxal influence in Chhattisgarh, aligning with the Union Home Minister’s commitment to eliminate Naxalism by 2026.

“I met with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and updated him about the Naxal activities in Chhattisgarh. Over the past 11 months, close to 200 Naxals have been neutralized, and approximately 600-700 have surrendered. We are making significant strides towards the goal set by the Prime Minister and Home Minister to achieve a Naxal-free India by March 2026,” CM Sai told reporters following the meeting.

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