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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Republic Day 2025: RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat says respect differences, live in harmony

Attempting a task without understanding, he warned, is akin to acting like a “lunatic,” leading to wasted effort and potential problems. This concept extended beyond culinary skills to encompass all aspects of life, highlighting the need for informed action and diligent work ethics.

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At the 76th Republic Day celebration in Bhiwandi, Maharashtra, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat on Sunday asserted the importance of unity and understanding in a diverse society. His speech, delivered after unfurling the national flag at a local college, extended beyond the celebratory aspects of the day, focusing on the responsibilities inherent in Indian citizenship.

Bhagwat’s central theme revolved around the need for societal cohesion, a concept he presented as crucial for harmonious coexistence. He acknowledged the presence of diversity within India, contrasting the nation’s approach with global conflicts often fueled by similar differences.

He argued that while individual distinctions and specializations should be respected, they should not overshadow the paramount importance of mutual respect and collaborative living. His analogy extended to the familial and community levels; just as a family requires harmony for its well-being, so too does a town and, ultimately, the nation. Internal conflicts, he implied, undermine the collective good.

He further emphasised the critical role of knowledge and dedication in achieving individual and societal success. Bhagwat used the simple act of cooking rice as a powerful metaphor. He explained that simply possessing the ingredients – rice, water, and heat – is insufficient; the knowledge of how to combine them properly is essential for a successful outcome.

Attempting a task without understanding, he warned, is akin to acting like a “lunatic,” leading to wasted effort and potential problems. This concept extended beyond culinary skills to encompass all aspects of life, highlighting the need for informed action and diligent work ethics.

His message extended into the realm of interpersonal relationships, highlighting the importance of faith and dedication. He contrasted the impersonal service received at a hotel with the welcoming hospitality often found in a home.

At a hotel, a simple request for water might be met with indifference or even hostility. However, at home, a similar request is usually met with generosity and warmth. This difference, he explained, lies in the presence of faith and dedication; actions rooted in trust and commitment invariably yield more positive results. Bhagwat concluded by emphasising that such faith and dedication are vital not only for personal fulfilment but also for building strong, harmonious communities and a thriving nation.

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Congress chief Kharge extends Republic Day greetings, slams Modi govt, says secularism being targeted by Goebbelsian propaganda

He claimed that minorities are being systematically targeted, and those advocating for secularism are subjected to what he termed “Goebbelsian propaganda,” a reference to Nazi Germany’s manipulative propaganda techniques. He further asserted that weaker sections of society – Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, the poor, and minorities – are treated as second-class citizens.

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On India’s 76th Republic Day, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge delivered a message that was as much a celebration of the Constitution’s 75th anniversary as it was a scathing critique of the current political climate.

He began by honouring the architects of the Constitution, mentioning Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Sardar Patel, B.R. Ambedkar, Subhas Chandra Bose, Rajendra Prasad, Maulana Azad, and Sarojini Naidu, acknowledging their monumental contribution to shaping India’s republic.

He extended his appreciation to the nation’s armed forces, paramilitary personnel, security forces, scientists, teachers, farmers, and the diverse workforce – including daily wage earners, gig workers, artists, writers, and sportspersons – for their indispensable roles in nation-building and preserving India’s rich cultural tapestry.

However, the celebratory tone was quickly overshadowed by a stark assessment of the nation’s democratic health. Kharge expressed deep concern over what he characterized as a decade-long erosion of democratic principles and institutions. He alleged a deliberate and malicious campaign fueled by religious fundamentalism, designed to fracture Indian society along religious lines.

He claimed that minorities are being systematically targeted, and those advocating for secularism are subjected to what he termed “Goebbelsian propaganda,” a reference to Nazi Germany’s manipulative propaganda techniques. He further asserted that weaker sections of society – Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, the poor, and minorities – are treated as second-class citizens.

The Congress president directly accused the ruling government of political interference in autonomous institutions, asserting that the control over independent bodies is perceived as a mark of power. He claimed that federalism is being systematically undermined, with the rights of opposition-governed states being curtailed.

The functioning of Parliament, he stated, has significantly deteriorated due to what he described as the tyrannical tendencies of the ruling government. Universities and self-governing institutions, he continued, face constant intrusion, and a large segment of the media has been co-opted as a propaganda tool. The suppression of dissent through the targeting of opposition leaders, he argued, has become the government’s primary policy.

The ongoing crisis in Manipur served as a stark illustration of his concerns, with Kharge highlighting the state’s prolonged turmoil and the lack of accountability at the highest levels of power.

He concluded his message with a fervent call to protect the Constitution’s fundamental values of justice, liberty, equality, and fraternity, emphasizing that these tenets are being systematically undermined by what he called an authoritarian regime.

He urged citizens to be prepared to make sacrifices to defend the Constitution, viewing this as a fitting tribute to their ancestors. His statement ended with the powerful slogan: “Jai Bapu, Jai Bheem, Jai Samvidhaan. Jai Hind.”

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Republic Day 2025: PM Modi says may this occasion strengthen efforts towards preserving ideals of Constitution

“May this occasion strengthen our efforts towards preserving the ideals of our Constitution and working towards a stronger and prosperous India,” the Prime Minister said.

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The 76th Republic Day is celebrated on January 26, commemorating the day its Constitution came into effect in 1950. Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered his greetings, emphasising the significance of preserving the Constitution’s core principles of democracy, dignity, and unity.

He paid tribute to the architects of the Constitution, acknowledging their instrumental role in shaping India’s democratic journey. His message on X expressed hope that the day would reinvigorate efforts to build a stronger and more prosperous nation, firmly rooted in the ideals enshrined in the Constitution.

“Happy Republic Day. Today, we celebrate 75 glorious years of being a Republic. We bow to all the great women and men who made our Constitution and ensured that our journey is rooted in democracy, dignity and unity,” PM Modi said in a post on X.

“May this occasion strengthen our efforts towards preserving the ideals of our Constitution and working towards a stronger and prosperous India,” the Prime Minister said.

The celebrations, held at Kartavya Path, were a spectacular display of India’s rich diversity, its remarkable progress, and its powerful military. President Droupadi Murmu presided over the event, with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto gracing the occasion as the chief guest. The meticulously planned parade, showcasing India’s cultural heritage and military might, commenced at 10:30 AM and lasted approximately 90 minutes.

Before joining the festivities, Prime Minister Modi paid his respects at the National War Memorial, honouring the sacrifices of fallen soldiers. This poignant tribute underscored the nation’s gratitude for those who defended its sovereignty and security.

The Republic Day parade, a vibrant tapestry of India’s national identity, served as a testament to its democratic spirit, its unwavering unity, and its remarkable journey as a nation. The event was a fitting tribute to the nation’s founding fathers and a symbol of its continued progress and aspirations.

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