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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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What is SACHET, the app PM Modi mentioned in Mann Ki Baat?

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PM Modi on BJP Foundation day

During his Mann Ki Baat broadcast on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the Sachet app, an innovative alert system developed by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).

Rolled out across India, Sachet harnesses geo-intelligence to provide near-instantaneous disaster warnings through diverse channels like SMS, web browser notifications, and RSS feeds.

The app’s website advises users to stay alert for SMS alerts marked with the “XX-NDMAEW” header. Beyond disaster alerts, Sachet offers weather updates and allows users to track multiple locations, delivering notifications directly to desktops or laptops. Subscribed entities, such as news outlets, can access alerts via RSS feeds to amplify public warnings.

The app has gained significant traction, with roughly 5.4 crore downloads in Uttar Pradesh, 4.6 crore in Delhi, and 1.1 crore in Maharashtra, underscoring its vital role in bolstering disaster readiness.

Modi praised Sachet as a testament to India’s use of technology to empower citizens, ensuring timely information to mitigate risks during emergencies.

The Prime Minister also addressed the tragic Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, which claimed 26 lives, predominantly tourists, in the tranquil Baisaran valley.

The investigation has been handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA), with the Ministry of Home Affairs urging a swift probe into one of the region’s most lethal civilian attacks in nearly two decades.

The NIA, in a press release, outlined its approach: “Under the supervision of senior officers, including an Inspector General, Deputy Inspector General, and Superintendent of Police, our teams are meticulously interviewing eyewitnesses to piece together the chilling sequence of events.”

The agency is delving into granular details to identify the culprits, linked to The Resistance Front, an affiliate of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. As the NIA intensifies its efforts, the focus remains on securing justice and fortifying security, especially with the Amarnath Yatra scheduled to commence on July 3, a time when Kashmir expects a surge in visitors.

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NIA takes over Pahalgam terror attack case from J&K Police

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The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has assumed control of the investigation into the devastating Pahalgam terror attack, taking over from the Jammu and Kashmir Police to probe the April 22, 2025, assault that killed 26 tourists, including one Nepali citizen, and injured over three dozen others.

The agency registered a fresh First Information Report (FIR) late Saturday, April 26, following directives from the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Counter Terrorism and Counter Radicalisation (CTCR) division, prompted by the attack’s severity and the involvement of The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which claimed responsibility.

Five days after the attack and four days after an NIA team, led by a Deputy Inspector General, visited the Baisaran meadow attack site near Pahalgam, the agency formally launched its probe. The team had initially supported local police in investigating what is considered the deadliest civilian attack in Jammu and Kashmir in nearly two decades.

The NIA is now tasked with conducting a comprehensive assessment, collecting forensic evidence, and identifying the perpetrators of the 2 p.m. massacre, which shattered the tranquility of a popular tourist destination. Helicopters were deployed to evacuate the wounded, underscoring the scale of the tragedy.

The attack coincides with a surge in tourist arrivals to Kashmir, raising concerns ahead of the 38-day Amarnath Yatra, set to begin on July 3. Against this backdrop, intelligence agencies have compiled a list of 14 local terrorists, aged 20 to 40, actively supporting Pakistan-based operatives with logistics and ground operations.

These individuals, affiliated with Hizbul Mujahideen, LeT, and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), include Adil Rehman Dentoo (LeT’s Sopore commander since 2021), Asif Ahmed Sheikh (JeM’s Awantipora commander since 2022), Ahsan Ahmed Sheikh (LeT, Pulwama, since 2023), Haris Nazir (LeT, Pulwama, since 2023), Aamir Nazir Wani (JeM, Pulwama, since 2024), Yawar Ahmed Bhat (JeM, Pulwama, since 2024), Asif Ahmed Khanday (Hizbul Mujahideen, Shopian, since 2015), Naseer Ahmed Wani (LeT, Shopian, since 2019), Shahid Ahmed Kutay (LeT/TRF, Shopian, since 2023), Aamir Ahmed Dar (LeT, Shopian, since 2023), Adnan Safi Dar (LeT/TRF, Shopian, since 2024), Zubair Ahmed Wani (Hizbul Mujahideen’s Anantnag commander since 2018), Haroon Rashid Ganai (Hizbul Mujahideen, Anantnag, trained in PoK in 2018), and Zakir Ahmed Ganie (LeT, Kulgam).

Security forces have intensified operations in South Kashmir, particularly Anantnag and Pulwama, targeting these operatives to disrupt terror networks. The NIA is also exploring links between these 14 individuals and five terrorists involved in the Pahalgam attack, including three Pakistani nationals—Asif Fauji, Suleman Shah, and Abu Talha—whose sketches were released earlier, and two local operatives, Adil Guri and Ahsan, with a ₹20 lakh bounty on each.

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Terrorists shoot dead social activist Ghulam Rasool in J&K’s Kupwara

His words underscore a growing international consensus on the need for collective action to address the scourge of militancy, particularly as India-Pakistan tensions flare.

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In a grim reminder of the region’s fragile security, suspected terrorists shot dead 45-year-old social activist Ghulam Rasool Magray in his home in Kandi Khas, Kupwara district, late Saturday night.

According to officials, the assailants fired at Magray inside his residence, and despite being rushed to a hospital, he was declared dead on arrival. The motive behind targeting the activist remains unclear, deepening the unease in a region still reeling from the recent Pahalgam terror attack.

Authorities have launched an investigation to uncover the circumstances and perpetrators of this brazen killing.

The murder follows the devastating Pahalgam attack on April 22, which claimed 26 lives, mostly tourists, and was attributed to The Resistance Front, a front for the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. In response, security forces have escalated their crackdown on the terror ecosystem. On Saturday night, officials demolished the homes of three active terrorists across Jammu and Kashmir, signaling zero tolerance for militancy. In Shopian’s Wandina, the residence of Adnan Shafi, who joined terrorist ranks in 2024, was razed. In Pulwama, the house of Amir Nazir met a similar fate, while in Bandipora, the home of Jameel Ahmad Shergojri, a Lashkar-e-Taiba operative since 2016, was reduced to rubble. These actions reflect the government’s resolve to dismantle terror networks in the wake of escalating violence.

The Pahalgam attack has reverberated beyond India’s borders, drawing condemnation from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday, April 26. In a statement shared on X by Iran’s embassy in New Delhi, Pezeshkian labeled the attack “inhumane” and called for regional solidarity to combat terrorism. “Such tragedies compel nations to unite in empathy and cooperation to uproot terrorism and secure lasting peace,” he said. His words underscore a growing international consensus on the need for collective action to address the scourge of militancy, particularly as India-Pakistan tensions flare.

The killing of Magray comes amid heightened India-Pakistan friction, with New Delhi suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and Islamabad retaliating by closing its airspace to Indian airlines and threatening to suspend bilateral agreements. Cross-border skirmishes along the Line of Control have intensified, with the Indian Army reporting exchanges of fire for two consecutive nights

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