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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

Published

9 years ago

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Over 5,000 tribals join BJP in Assam’s Goalpara ahead of elections

More than 5,000 tribals, largely from the Garo community, joined the BJP in Assam’s Goalpara district during a large-scale ST Morcha programme ahead of elections.

Published

12 hours ago

on

February 26, 2026

By

Hemanta Sharma

More than 5,000 members of tribal communities formally joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at a large-scale event held in Assam’s Goalpara district on February 25, weeks before key elections.

The joining programme was organised by the BJP ST Morcha, Assam Pradesh, at the Agia School playground. The event was conducted under the leadership of Riya Sangma, State Secretary of BJP ST Morcha and in-charge of the Goalpara ST Morcha.

Party leaders said the programme witnessed strong participation, particularly from the Garo community, describing it as a significant political development in the district.

The chief guest at the event was Samir Oran, National President of BJP ST Morcha and outgoing Member of Parliament (Rajya Sabha). Among those present were Bijuli Kalita Medhi, MP from the Guwahati Lok Sabha constituency, Ravindra Raju, Horen Singh Bey, who serves as State President of BJP ST Morcha, and other party leaders.

Goalpara district has traditionally seen strong influence from opposition parties, especially the Congress. Tribal voters in the region have largely remained divided, making the large-scale induction ahead of elections politically significant.

Addressing the media, Samir Oran said the BJP has brought a new phase of recognition and opportunity for tribal communities across the Northeast. He stated that the joining programme reflected growing trust among tribal populations in the party.

Riya Sangma said many tribal communities, particularly members of the Garo community, had earlier felt deprived of adequate respect and development benefits. She added that the participation of over 5,000 people demonstrated confidence in the BJP’s leadership.

Dipankar Nath, BJP Goalpara District President, termed the development a “game-changer” for the constituency. He said the party remains committed to the welfare, development and dignity of tribal communities.

Party leaders expressed confidence that the induction drive would strengthen the BJP’s organisational base in Goalpara and nearby areas ahead of the upcoming polls.

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PM Modi crosses 100 million followers on Instagram, first world leader to achieve milestone

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has crossed 100 million followers on Instagram, becoming the first world leader to achieve the milestone and widening the gap with global counterparts.

Published

12 hours ago

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February 26, 2026

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pm modi followers

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become the first world leader and politician to cross 100 million followers on Instagram, marking a significant moment in global political communication.

Having joined the platform in 2014, the Prime Minister has steadily built one of the most followed political profiles worldwide. Over the past decade, his Instagram account has featured updates on official engagements, international visits, public outreach programmes, cultural highlights and personal moments, helping him connect with a broad and diverse audience.

With 100 million followers, PM Modi now ranks first among world leaders on Instagram. His follower count is more than double that of US President Donald Trump, who stands at 43.2 million followers.

Other prominent leaders remain considerably behind in comparison. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has around 15 million followers, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has 14.4 million, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has 11.6 million, and Argentine President Javier Milei has 6.4 million followers.

Notably, the combined follower count of the next five major global leaders remains lower than PM Modi’s individual tally, highlighting the scale of his digital outreach. Observers note that his presence on Instagram resonates strongly with younger users in India and abroad, reflecting the growing importance of visual and interactive platforms in political engagement.

Wide gap within India’s political space

The Prime Minister also maintains a substantial lead over other Indian political figures on Instagram. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has around 16.1 million followers, while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has approximately 12.6 million followers.

The gap underlines PM Modi’s dominant position on social media among domestic political leaders.

The milestone reflects a broader global trend of political leaders increasingly using platforms like Instagram to communicate directly with citizens, share governance updates, and expand public engagement beyond traditional media channels.

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MK Stalin predicts frequent PM Modi visits to Tamil Nadu before assembly election

MK Stalin has said Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Tamil Nadu more often ahead of the Assembly election, calling the tours politically motivated and questioning the Centre’s support to the state.

Published

1 day ago

on

February 25, 2026

By

MK Stalin

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will increase his visits to the state as the Assembly election, expected in April or May, draws closer.

Speaking ahead of the polls, the DMK president said the Prime Minister has already begun touring Tamil Nadu and is likely to visit frequently in the coming months. He claimed that such visits could create discomfort within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as alliance partners may fear the political impact of repeated appearances.

Stalin calls visit politically motivated

The Chief Minister described the Prime Minister’s scheduled programmes in the state as “politically motivated”. PM Modi is set to attend various events in Madurai in southern Tamil Nadu, including the inauguration of the first phase of the AIIMS hospital project. He is also expected to visit the Thiruparankundram Temple amid the Karthigai Deepam-related controversy and participate in a public meeting organised by the NDA.

Stalin said he has been working for all sections of the population, including those who did not vote for his party. In contrast, he remarked that some leaders are visible in the state only during election time and increase their visits as polls approach.

Criticism over Union Budget allocations

The DMK leader also criticised the BJP-led central government, accusing it of neglecting Tamil Nadu. He pointed out that while approval was recently granted for the Gujarat Metro project, there were no major announcements or allocations for Tamil Nadu in the Union Budget.

Stalin asserted that voters would remember the lack of significant measures for the state. He framed the upcoming election as a contest between Tamil Nadu and the NDA, stating that the state should be governed from Fort St George in Chennai rather than from Delhi.

The ruling DMK is currently allied with several smaller parties and, at present, the Congress, as it seeks a third consecutive term in office. Its principal rival, the AIADMK, is aligned with the BJP as part of the NDA.

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