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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Rahul Gandhi to visit Indore over contaminated water deaths, draws mixed political reactions

Rahul Gandhi is set to visit Indore to meet families affected by contaminated water deaths as BJP and Congress leaders exchange sharp yet contrasting responses.

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Rahul-Gandhi

Leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi is scheduled to visit Indore on Saturday amid mounting political and public concern over deaths linked to contaminated drinking water in the city. His visit has triggered varied responses from political leaders, reflecting the tense atmosphere surrounding the issue.

According to the proposed itinerary, Rahul Gandhi will begin his visit at Bombay Hospital, where several people affected by contaminated water are currently undergoing treatment. He is expected to meet patients and their families before proceeding to Bhagirathpura, the area identified as the epicentre of the crisis. There, he will interact with families who lost relatives after consuming contaminated water.

BJP veteran welcomes visit, stresses democratic role of opposition

Former Lok Sabha Speaker and senior BJP leader Sumitra Mahajan welcomed Rahul Gandhi’s visit, adopting a conciliatory tone and underlining the importance of opposition voices in a democracy.

“This is how democracy works,” Mahajan said, adding that the opposition has a responsibility to raise issues affecting the public. She recalled that when her party was in the opposition, it fought strongly to earn people’s trust by standing with them during difficult times.

Chief minister warns against ‘politics over tragedy’

In contrast, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav issued a sharp warning without naming Rahul Gandhi directly, cautioning against what he described as politicisation of a tragedy.

“We have faced this difficult phase with sensitivity,” the chief minister said. He added that Indore would not tolerate politics being played over deaths and stressed that protests must remain constructive, warning of serious consequences if the issue is used for political gain.

Closed-door meeting fuels political discussion

Adding to the political churn, Madhya Pradesh Congress president Jitu Patwari met Sumitra Mahajan at her residence in a closed-door meeting. The discussion focused on the Bhagirathpura water contamination incident and possible long-term solutions, fuelling speculation across political circles.

Speaking to the media later, Patwari said the tragedy should not be turned into a political contest. “This is not just a political issue, it is a serious public health issue,” he said, noting that several parts of Madhya Pradesh are facing problems related to contaminated drinking water.

Patwari stressed that ensuring access to clean and potable water should take precedence over political rhetoric. He said the government must focus on protecting Indore’s reputation and safeguarding the future by strengthening the city’s water supply system.

Responding to queries, Sumitra Mahajan said Patwari had been meeting her for a long time and spoke positively about his efforts. She confirmed that the discussion centred on the Bhagirathpura incident and said she offered suggestions, calling for collective efforts to resolve the crisis.

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Suvendu Adhikari files Rs 100-crore defamation suit against Mamata Banerjee

Suvendu Adhikari has moved an Alipore court seeking Rs 100 crore in damages from Mamata Banerjee, alleging defamation over coal scam claims.

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Suvendu-Adhikari

West Bengal opposition leader and BJP MLA Suvendu Adhikari on Friday filed a defamation suit against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, seeking Rs 100 crore in damages for allegedly linking him to a coal scam.

In a post on social media, Adhikari said the suit was filed before the court of the civil judge (senior division) at Alipore after Banerjee did not respond to a legal notice sent to her earlier.

Adhikari accused the chief minister of making what he described as “imaginary allegations” and said her silence on the defamation notice had compelled him to move court.

“I honour my commitments while you obfuscate issues and people. Your deceptive silence to the defamation notice pertaining to your vile imaginary allegations of my involvement in some alleged coal scam will not help you salvage the situation,” Adhikari wrote on X.

He added that he had kept his word of initiating legal action and shared a photograph related to the registration of the civil suit.

Adhikari also stated that if damages are awarded in his favour, the amount would be donated to charity.

Legal notice and allegations

According to Adhikari, the legal notice sent through his advocate referred to statements made by Banerjee on January 8 and 9, during which she allegedly linked him and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to an alleged coal scam while claiming to possess evidence.

In the notice, Adhikari had asked Banerjee to substantiate the allegations within 72 hours, failing which he would proceed with a defamation suit.

Adhikari, who was earlier a minister in the Trinamool Congress government, joined the BJP ahead of the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections and is currently the leader of the opposition in the state assembly.

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Ajit Pawar concedes civic poll setback, says public mandate is supreme

Ajit Pawar has accepted defeat in Maharashtra’s civic polls, acknowledging the public mandate and pledging stronger efforts to rebuild trust ahead of future elections.

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Ajit Pawar

Deputy Chief Minister and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Ajit Pawar on Friday accepted the verdict of the recently concluded municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra, stating that the public’s mandate must be respected above all else.

Following near-clear results in the 29 municipal corporations across the state, Pawar took to social media to formally acknowledge the party’s poor performance in several major urban centres. He said the outcome reflected the will of the people and congratulated all winning candidates.

“The public’s mandate is supreme, and we accept it with complete respect. I heartily congratulate all the winning candidates and wish them success in their upcoming terms,” Pawar said.

Ajit Pawar promises renewed effort after losses

Addressing the party’s inability to achieve the expected results, the NCP leader said his faction would introspect and work harder to regain the confidence of voters.

“In this local body election, where we did not achieve the expected success, I assure you that we will work with more responsibility, honesty and double the vigour to regain the public’s trust,” he said.

He also urged newly elected representatives to focus on public issues and speed up development work. At the same time, Pawar encouraged party workers and candidates who lost the elections to remain committed to public service, underlining that serving citizens should remain the central objective.

Setback in traditional strongholds

The civic poll results have been viewed as a significant setback for Ajit Pawar, particularly in western Maharashtra. Despite choosing to contest independently in several areas—separate from Mahayuti partners BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena—to demonstrate the strength of his faction, the NCP suffered major losses in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad.

Both municipal corporations, long regarded as strongholds of the Pawar family, witnessed a decisive lead and victory for the BJP, leaving Ajit Pawar’s faction trailing in third or fourth position.

In Mumbai and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, the party struggled to make an impact, failing to secure even double-digit seats in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation.

Political observers believe the strategy of “friendly contests” against the BJP did not yield the desired outcome. The results indicate that the traditional Pawar support base may have split between Ajit Pawar and his uncle Sharad Pawar’s faction, indirectly benefiting the BJP.

The outcome of the 2026 civic polls is being seen as an important signal ahead of the 2029 Maharashtra Assembly elections, pointing to shifting political equations within the ruling alliance.

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