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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Thackeray cousins reunite for Mumbai civic polls, announce Shiv Sena UBT–MNS alliance

Uddhav and Raj Thackeray have reunited after two decades, announcing a Shiv Sena–MNS alliance for the upcoming BMC elections with a focus on Marathi identity.

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Shiv sena ubt mns alliance

The long political estrangement between Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray has ended, with the cousins formally announcing an alliance for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. The joint decision marks a significant shift in Mumbai’s civic politics, placing Marathi identity at the centre of the campaign.

At a joint press conference, Raj Thackeray declared that the Shiv Sena and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) would contest the local body elections together. He asserted that Mumbai would get a Marathi mayor, adding that the mayor would come from the Shiv Sena–MNS alliance. Uddhav Thackeray, seated alongside him, echoed the confidence, stating that Mumbai would remain with them “come what may”.

Focus on unity and Marathi identity

Uddhav Thackeray underlined the importance of unity, invoking the slogan “batenge toh katenge” to warn against division. Raj Thackeray said the alliance would work to ensure that Marathi people get what they want, reinforcing the emphasis on regional identity that once defined the politics shaped by Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray.

The cousins, who have come together after nearly two decades, also appealed to leaders and workers unhappy with the Shiv Sena faction aligned with the BJP to join their front. The message was aimed at consolidating forces opposed to the ruling coalition in the state.

Seat-sharing and poll preparations

Elections to the BMC are due within a month, with voting scheduled for January 15. Political parties have already begun preparations for a high-intensity campaign to gain control of the country’s richest municipal body.

Uddhav Thackeray said that seat-sharing arrangements for Mumbai, Nashik and other municipal bodies have been finalised, though details were not disclosed. Sources indicated that the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray could contest around 145–150 seats, while the MNS may field candidates in 65–70 seats. The remaining seats are expected to be contested by allies, including a faction of the NCP.

Strategic reunion against rivals

The alliance shifts the political narrative from disputes over the “real Sena” to a united front led by the Thackeray family, signalling continuity with Bal Thackeray’s legacy. Party leaders described the reunion as a moment of significance for Marathi voters and Maharashtra.

The combination brings together Uddhav Thackeray’s support among traditional Sena loyalists and Raj Thackeray’s appeal among younger voters, positioning the alliance as a key challenger in the civic polls. Raj Thackeray’s return to the fold is also expected to consolidate the Marathi vote bank that had earlier moved towards the MNS, impacting rival formations in Mumbai.

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Nitin Gadkari flags Delhi air pollution, says two-day stay causes infection

Union minister Nitin Gadkari says spending two days in Delhi leads to infection, flags fossil fuel use as a major cause of pollution and calls for alternative energy solutions.

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Union Minister Nitin Gadkari

Delhi’s worsening air quality has drawn sharp criticism from within the ruling BJP, with Union minister Nitin Gadkari saying that even a brief stay in the national capital affects his health.

Speaking at a public event in Delhi, Gadkari remarked that spending just two days in the city results in an infection, raising questions over why the capital continues to struggle with severe pollution levels. His comments come at a time when the Air Quality Index has remained in the ‘very poor’ and ‘severe’ categories for weeks.

The Union minister, who handles the road transport and highways portfolio, acknowledged that the transport sector plays a major role in pollution. He said around 40 per cent of pollution is linked to fossil fuel usage and pointed out that India spends nearly Rs 22 lakh crore on importing fossil fuels, which also contributes to environmental damage.

Gadkari pushes for alternative fuels and exports

Gadkari stressed that promoting alternative fuel and biofuel technologies should be seen as a form of true nationalism. He argued that reducing imports and increasing exports would strengthen the country economically while also addressing pollution. According to him, resistance to eco-friendly technologies remains a major hurdle despite their long-term benefits.

Remarks on communal issues and secularism

During the same address, Gadkari said it was incorrect to label every Muslim as a terrorist, emphasising that there are varying degrees of extremism. He cited former President A P J Abdul Kalam as a national icon and underlined the importance of education, especially among marginalised sections.

He further claimed that Hindu-Muslim tensions in the country are a result of vote bank politics pursued by the Congress. Defining secularism as “justice for all”, Gadkari said policies driven by electoral considerations had created divisions. He asserted that Indian culture is neither communal nor casteist and described Hindutva as tolerant and inclusive.

Reiterating views earlier expressed by former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Gadkari said India was, is, and will remain a secular country, rooted in its cultural traditions that advocate welfare for all.

Political reactions over pollution issue

The BJP-led governments at the Centre and in Delhi have faced criticism over their handling of air pollution. Congress leader Imran Masood responded to Gadkari’s remarks by saying that the minister had at least acknowledged the seriousness of the problem. He added that pollution cannot be attributed only to vehicles, noting that similar vehicles operate outside Delhi as well.

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Over 24 lakh voters dropped from Kerala draft electoral roll after special revision

The Election Commission has removed over 24 lakh names from Kerala’s draft voter lists after verification during the Special Intensive Revision process.

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Over 24.08 lakh electors have been removed from the draft voter lists in Kerala following the completion of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, with the Election Commission publishing the updated draft electoral roll on Tuesday.

As per official data, Kerala has a total of 2,78,50,855 registered electors. Of these, 2,54,42,352 electors submitted their Enumeration Forms during the revision process, which concluded on December 18.

The poll body said the deletions were carried out after verification and were linked to multiple factors, including electors shifting to other states or Union Territories, voters found to be non-existent, individuals who did not submit enumeration forms within the stipulated time, and those who chose not to continue their registration.

Break-up of deleted names

According to the Election Commission, the deleted entries include 6,49,885 names of deceased voters, accounting for 2.33 per cent of the electorate. Another 14,61,769 voters, or 5.25 per cent, were removed after being found shifted or absent, while 1,36,029 voters, around 0.49 per cent, were deleted for being enrolled at multiple locations.

Claims and objections window open

Although the enumeration phase has ended, eligible citizens can still seek corrections. The Commission has opened a claims and objections period from December 23 to January 22, 2026, allowing applications for inclusion of eligible voters or removal of ineligible names from the rolls.

The final electoral roll for Kerala is scheduled to be published on February 21, 2026.

Awareness drives and field-level efforts

The Election Commission said extensive awareness campaigns were conducted across the state to ensure maximum participation. Senior election officials held regular meetings with political parties at the state, district and assembly constituency levels to explain the revision process and share progress updates.

Booth Level Officers (BLOs) carried out house-to-house visits to all electors listed as of October 27, distributing Enumeration Forms and making at least three follow-up visits for collection. Booth Level Agents were permitted to submit up to 50 forms per day to strengthen coordination at the grassroots level.

To support field staff, BLOs were assisted by Anganwadi workers, students from NCC, NSS and election literacy clubs, volunteers, revenue officials and social work students. The poll body said more than 93 per cent mapping of collected forms was achieved through repeated training sessions, video tutorials and doubt-clearing programmes.

Special initiatives during SIR

During the exercise, the Chief Electoral Officer of Kerala launched motivational and outreach initiatives aimed at supporting election staff managing the heavy workload of digitising voter data. District-level programmes were also rolled out to recognise and motivate BLOs and supervisors completing digitisation targets.

In areas with weak network connectivity, a community-based digitisation model was adopted, where BLOs collectively digitised forms from locations with better internet access. Special urban camps were organised across all wards of urban local bodies to ensure comprehensive coverage of city voters.

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