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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

Published

9 years ago

March 10, 2017

A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in 2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Related Topics:Akhilesh Amit Shah BJP Modi Up

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Centre reassures farmers as India-US trade deal nears completion

The Centre has assured farmers that the upcoming India-US trade deal will not harm agriculture or dairy, while creating new export opportunities for India.

Published

1 hour ago

February 6, 2026

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As India and the United States move closer to finalising a major bilateral trade agreement, the Centre has sought to reassure farmers that their interests remain fully protected. Senior ministers on Wednesday said the proposed pact does not compromise sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy, while opening new avenues for Indian exports.

Union Minister for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Shivraj Singh Chouhan dismissed opposition allegations that the deal could adversely affect domestic farmers. Speaking to the media in New Delhi, he said the agreement poses no risk to staple food grains, millets, fruits or dairy products.

“Farmers’ interests are paramount and non-negotiable,” Chouhan said, asserting that the government has ensured no provision allows sudden or disruptive entry of foreign agricultural products into Indian markets. He added that safeguards for both small and large farmers remain firmly in place.

Chouhan underlined that key agricultural commodities continue to be protected and that existing measures shielding Indian farmers from unfair competition will remain unchanged. According to him, the agreement has been shaped under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with a clear focus on development and national interest.

Addressing concerns sparked by a recent social media post from a US official regarding greater access for American farm products, the Agriculture Minister said the matter had already been clarified in Parliament by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. He reiterated that India has not opened its markets in a way that would put pressure on domestic producers.

At the same time, the government highlighted potential gains for Indian exports. Reduced tariffs under the agreement are expected to benefit sectors such as rice, spices and textiles. Chouhan pointed out that India already exports rice to multiple countries, including the US, with shipments valued at around Rs 63,000 crore. Increased textile exports, he added, would directly support cotton-growing farmers and allied industries.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also indicated that the trade agreement is now in its final stages. In a post on X following his visit to the United States, he described the negotiations as productive and said the deal would mark a new phase in bilateral relations. He noted progress in areas such as critical minerals, while signalling deeper engagement in defence, energy and strategic cooperation.

Officials view the agreement as part of a broader effort to strengthen India-US economic and strategic ties amid global uncertainty. While detailed provisions are yet to be made public, the Centre has reiterated that farmer welfare remains at the heart of the negotiations.

In an emotional appeal, Chouhan referred to farmers as the nation’s “Annadata” and said serving them was equivalent to worship. He assured that the government would continue to stand firmly with farmers as India charts a new course in its trade relationship with the United States.

India News

Punjab AAP leader Lucky Oberoi shot dead in daylight attack in Jalandhar

AAP leader Lucky Oberoi was killed in a daylight shooting in Punjab’s Jalandhar after attackers fired multiple bullets at him while he was inside his car.

Published

7 hours ago

February 6, 2026

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AAP leader Lucky Oberoi was shot dead in a broad daylight attack in Punjab’s Jalandhar on Friday after unidentified assailants opened fire at him near a gurdwara in the city.

According to initial information, Oberoi was inside his car near the Gurdwara Sahib in the Model Town area when attackers arrived on a two-wheeler and fired multiple rounds at him. Five bullets reportedly hit him during the attack.

He was rushed to a private hospital immediately after the shooting, but doctors declared him dead due to the severity of his injuries.

Attack near gurdwara, police launch investigation

As per preliminary details, Oberoi was parking his vehicle outside the gurdwara when the attackers struck. The shooting triggered panic in the area, prompting an immediate response from the local police.

A police team reached the spot soon after receiving information and has launched an investigation into the incident. Efforts are underway to identify the attackers and determine the motive behind the killing.

Political reactions after killing

Following the incident, Leader of Opposition in the Punjab Legislative Assembly, Partap Singh Bajwa, strongly criticised the state government, alleging a collapse of law and order in Punjab.

In a post on X, Bajwa said the daylight killing of an AAP leader outside a gurdwara reflected the deteriorating security situation in the state. He questioned the government’s ability to protect citizens, claiming that fear and gang violence were gripping Punjab under the current administration.

Background

Lucky Oberoi was associated with the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. His wife had earlier contested municipal elections as an AAP candidate but did not win.

India News

Pariksha Pe Charcha 2026: PM Modi to interact with students at 10 am today

PM Modi will address students across India at 10 am today as part of Pariksha Pe Charcha 2026, focusing on stress-free examinations and learning.

Published

7 hours ago

February 6, 2026

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi will interact with students from across the country on Friday at 10 am as part of the annual Pariksha Pe Charcha (PPC) programme. The 2026 edition continues the initiative’s focus on reducing exam-related stress and encouraging students to prioritise learning over pressure.

In a message shared on X, the Prime Minister invited students, parents and teachers to watch Pariksha Pe Charcha 2026, noting that this year’s discussions will cover topics related to examinations, the importance of staying stress-free and maintaining focus on learning. He described the programme as a platform he enjoys, as it allows him to engage directly with young minds from different parts of the country.

Aligned with NEP 2020 vision

The Pariksha Pe Charcha initiative aligns with the National Education Policy 2020, which emphasises holistic development, mental well-being and a supportive learning environment. The programme seeks to transform how examinations are perceived by fostering confidence, positivity and celebrating the exam season as a learning festival rather than a source of anxiety.

According to an official release from the Ministry of Education, the Prime Minister has also shared his views on examinations and student well-being in his book Exam Warriors. Available in multiple languages as well as Braille, the book highlights the importance of self-belief and open conversations around stress so that children can enjoy a balanced and fulfilling childhood.

Student participation in pre-event activities

Conceptualised by the Prime Minister, Pariksha Pe Charcha introduces new and engaging elements every year. In the lead-up to the 2026 edition, several student-focused activities were organised across schools nationwide. These included the Swadeshi Sankalp Daud, a student-led run or walk promoting the spirit of self-reliance, along with quiz and writing competitions conducted at selected Kendriya Vidyalayas on Parakram Diwas.

The Ministry of Education stated that approximately 4.81 crore students participated in these pre-event activities, reflecting the scale and reach of the initiative.