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Covid-19 outbreak: Upward trend in cases triggers fear of fourth wave | Is lifting restrictions a major cause for rising cases?

No one could have predicted that the year 2020 would push you to undertake things that no one could have imagined. The outbreak has had a cascading effect on the world.

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3 years ago

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India reports over 20k fresh Covid-19 cases, 49 fatalities in a single day, active cases rise to 1.43 lakh

The coronavirus outbreak has taken the world by storm. No one could have predicted that the year 2020 would push you to undertake things that no one could have imagined. The Covid-19 outbreak has had a cascading effect on the world.

People never expected there will be a time when work from the office will shift to work from home. Who would have thought that roads, streets, malls, public places, and for that matter, cinema halls will be shut? And now it’s been over 2 years and people have become accustomed to this lifestyle. Masks have become an inseparable part of life, and people now carry hand sanitizer in the same way they carry their smartphones.

The Covid-19 outbreak is taking a turn once again in India with a new wave of cases being reported in the country. Here’s why?

Earlier, on April 1, Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh governments announced that wearing masks in public places is not mandatory and they will not be penalized for that. With the cases declining, the country decided to reopen schools after 2 years. However, the lifting of restrictions and the scrapping of Covid-19 laws seems to be a big worry in light of the increasing number of Covid-19 cases.

In the wake of rising Covid-19 cases, the Uttar Pradesh government on Monday made the masks compulsory in its seven districts adjoining Delhi. Uttar Pradesh’s Gautam Buddh Nagar district, adjoining Delhi on Monday reported 65 new Covid-19 cases including 19 children and these children are below 18 years of age.

Also, Covid-19 cases in Delhi are showing an upward trend over the last few days. Within 3 days, Delhi saw an increase in positivity rate from 2.49 percent on April 13 to 5.33 percent on April 16.

Not only this, but the government has also lifted international travelling restrictions. Is this the reason for the upward trend in cases in the country?

A large number of coronavirus cases have been reported not just in India, but in US and China as well. According to the Associated Press (AP), the United States is teetering on the brink of another Covid-19 outbreak, with cases growing nationally and in most states following a two-month drop. Experts have warned that a Covid-19 mutant known as BA.2, which is expected to be 30% more contagious, may cause a wave that will sweep the country.

Apart from the United States, China’s financial center Shanghai is also battling new Covid-19 outbreaks, putting roughly 26 million people under lockdown. Africa also saw a 12% rise in new cases and a 14% rise in deaths, and Europe a 2% rise in cases over the last few days.

Is scrapping masks a reason for rising in cases? Here’s why other countries are facing a surge in Covid-19 cases?

In the United Kingdom, all Covid-19-related legal restrictions, such as masking in public and self-isolation after a positive test, are being repealed. Other countries, such as Poland, Slovakia, and Iceland, have abolished the necessity to wear masks in public and eased laws on gatherings, allowing nightclubs to reopen and capacity limits to be lifted. Some areas in the United Kingdom are still seeing over 7,000 reported positive cases, with some regions hitting startling highs of 40,000 daily.

According to Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at the Queen Mary University of London, several nations that have lifted restrictions have observed spikes not only in cases but also in hospitalizations and deaths.

Can India expect a fourth wave?

Predicting anything about the upcoming wave is uncertain as the new wave of infections is solely by the development of the next variant. According to the reports, the current variant XE is more contagious than the previous Omicron strain. But the fact is that the Omicron variant has already infected a large population and many of them have developed immunity against this variant.

It is said that the immunity gained from the previous infection might last for at least six to nine months and this is also the reason for the nine-month gap in administering booster doses of vaccine. This means that most patients infected with the Omicron strain during the third wave would be protected for at least a few months longer, unless a new deadly variation is discovered in the population, of course.

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India registers 313 new Covid cases, active cases reach 2,041, 3 deaths recorded in last 24 hours

The currently available data suggests that the JN.1 variant is neither leading to an exponential rise in the new cases nor a rise in the hospitalization and mortality.

Published

11 months ago

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January 20, 2024

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India saw a single-day rise of 313 new Covid cases, while the active caseload has declined to 2,041, the health ministry said on Saturday.  Three deaths: two from Karnataka and one from Maharashtra were reported in the last 24 hours.

According to the ministry website, the number of active cases in the country stood at 2,331 on Friday. The number of cases of Covid had dropped to double digits till December 5, but it began to start increasing after the emergence of a new variant and cold weather conditions.

 According to reports after December 5, the highest single day rise of 841new cases was reported on December 31, 2023, which is 0.2% of the peak cases reported in May 2021. Of the total active cases, a large majority of these (around 92%) are recovering under home isolation.

The currently available data suggests that the JN.1 variant is neither leading to an exponential rise in the new cases nor a rise in the hospitalization and mortality. India has witnessed three waves of Covid in the past with its peak incidence of daily new cases and deaths being reported during the delta wave in April June 2021.

 At its peak, 414,188 new cases and 3915 deaths were reported on May 7, 2021. Since the pandemic started in early 2020, there have have been 4.5 crore people who have got infected and this has resulted in the death of 5.3 lakh persons in a total time span of four years.

According to the ministry data, the total number of persons who have recuperated from the disease are 4.4 crore with total recovery rate recorded is 98.81%. A total number of 220.67 crore doses of Covid vaccines have been administered in India so far.  

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India registers 605 new COVID-19 cases and 4 deaths in last 24 hours

The number of people who have recovered from the disease has gone up to 4,44,81,341, an increase of 648 since Sunday morning. In Kerala a 70 year-old male with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 81year-old male with T2DM and HTN, and in Karnataka, a 48 year old male with CA and TB died, while one person in Tripura succumbed to COVID.

Published

12 months ago

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January 8, 2024

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India recorded 605 fresh COVID-19 cases and four deaths in the last 24 hours. The active cases have increased to 4002, while India’s overall COVID case tally stands at over 4.5 crore (4,50,18,792). The death toll was recorded at 5,33,396 with four new deaths – two from Kerala and one each in Karnataka and Tripura – reported in the last 24 hours, the data updated at 8am stated.

The number of people who have recovered from the disease has gone up to 4,44,81,341, an increase of 648 since Sunday morning. In Kerala a 70 year-old male with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 81year-old male with T2DM and HTN, and in Karnataka, a 48 year old male with CA and TB died, while one person in Tripura succumbed to COVID.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) reported that 11,838 doses of the vaccine had been administered in the country till January 7. The data is a compilation of the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (National Centre for Disease Control), media bulletins and websites of various states at 8am on January 4.

As the winter season sets in, health experts are highlighting a sudden surge in viral infections, influenza, and COVID-19 cases. Dr Nikhil Modi, a senior pulmonologist at Indraprastha Apollo Hospital, pointed out that the decrease in temperature leads to increase in moisture in the air, low wind speed and also causes an increase in pollution levels. This contributes highly to various infections.

Due to the decrease in temperature the fog combines with the pollution in the air which further leads to the formation of smog. This condition of the atmosphere can cause different types of infections and difficulty in breathing. Both the state and the central government are keeping a close watch on the new Omicron Subvariant JN.1. J.N.1 is a Variant of Interest (VOI) which is under intense scientific scrutiny.   

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India records 774 new Covid-19 cases, 2 deaths in 24 hours

The number of daily cases was in double digits till December 5 but it started to rise again amid cold weather conditions and after the emergence of new Covid-19 variant, JN.1.

Published

12 months ago

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January 6, 2024

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India on Saturday had a single-day rise of 774 Covid cases while the number of active cases stood at 4,187, the Union health ministry said. As many as two deaths – one each from Tamil Nadu and Gujarat were reported in a span of 24 hours. Of the 4,187 active cases, the majority (over 92%) are recovering under home isolation.

The number of daily cases was in double digits till December 5 but it started to rise again amid cold weather conditions and after the emergence of new Covid-19 variant, JN.1. The central government has asked the state government and union territories to maintain a constant vigil amid an upward trend in the number of Covid-cases and the detection of the JN.1 sub variant in the country.

According to reports after December 5, the highest single-day rise of 841 cases was reported on December 31, 2023, which was 0.2% of the peak cases reported in May 2021. A health official said that the JN.1 variant is neither leading to an exponential rise in new cases nor a surge in hospitalisation and mortality in the country.

The Karnataka government has made the Covid test mandatory for those with Influenza like illness (ILI) or Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI). Karnataka Health Minister Dinesh Gundu Rao said more than 7000 tests are being done every day and the COVID positivity rate is 3.82%. The positivity rate in the state has not come down yet.

He said those with symptoms are being monitored and tested. Those who are in isolation at home have been told to take extra care. He added it is expected that the trend of decreasing Covid cases may start next week in Karnataka. India has witnessed three waves of Covid-19 in the past with the peak incidence of daily cases and deaths being reported during the Delta wave during April-June 2021. At its peak 4,14,188 cases and 3915 deaths were reported on May 7, 2021.

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