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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

Published

8 years ago

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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

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India News

Amit Shah praises Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, says Nation above post

Amit Shah hailed Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation as Union Education Minister, saying BJP places the nation and students above any position while highlighting the government’s commitment to examination reforms.

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17 hours ago

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July 26, 2026

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday praised Dharmendra Pradhan’s decision to step down as Union Education Minister, saying the move reflected the Bharatiya Janata Party’s commitment to placing the nation and students above any political position.

In a post on X, Shah said that for BJP workers, the country, its youth and students are more important than any office. He described Pradhan’s resignation as an example of the party’s guiding principle of prioritising national interest over personal ambition.

Shah highlights government’s focus on exam reforms

Amit Shah said the Narendra Modi-led government respects the sentiments of students and remains committed to strengthening the examination system following concerns over alleged paper leaks.

He said the Centre has introduced strict measures to ensure severe punishment for those involved in examination paper leaks and expressed confidence that these steps would deliver justice to students who cleared the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET).

Praises Pradhan’s work as Education Minister

Recalling Dharmendra Pradhan’s tenure, Shah highlighted several initiatives undertaken during his time in the Education Ministry. He credited Pradhan with helping implement the National Education Policy (NEP), expanding PM SHRI schools, promoting digital education, strengthening skill development and improving coordination between industry and academic institutions.

Shah also said Pradhan worked towards making examinations more inclusive and student-centric, adding that his tenure reflected his commitment to the vision of a developed India.

Resignation follows NEET controversy

Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation comes amid nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the NEET examination and growing demands for accountability.

The resignation has triggered political reactions across party lines. While opposition parties have described the development as a result of sustained student protests, BJP leaders have projected it as an example of accountability and commitment to national interest.

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India News

Assam flood death toll rises to 66, over 6.5 lakh people still affected

Assam’s flood situation improved slightly on Saturday, but more than 6.54 lakh people remain affected in six districts. Four fresh deaths have pushed the state’s flood toll to 66.

Published

17 hours ago

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July 26, 2026

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Assam floods

The flood situation in Assam showed marginal improvement on Saturday, though the disaster continued to impact more than 6.54 lakh people across six districts. Four more deaths were reported during the day, taking the total number of fatalities in this year’s floods to 66.

According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), three of the latest deaths were reported from Sivasagar district, while one person lost their life in Charaideo.

The number of affected people declined from over 7.05 lakh across nine districts on Friday to 6,54,800 across six districts on Saturday, indicating a gradual improvement in the overall situation.

Sivasagar remains the worst-hit district

Among the affected districts, Sivasagar continues to be the worst hit, with nearly 2.9 lakh people impacted by the floods. Charaideo follows with around 1.9 lakh affected residents, while more than 1.3 lakh people remain affected in Jorhat.

The other districts still facing flood-related challenges are Dibrugarh, Golaghat and Nagaon.

Relief operations continue across affected areas

The ASDMA said the state administration is operating 274 relief camps and aid distribution centres across the affected districts. Around 18,902 displaced people are currently taking shelter at these facilities.

The latest daily bulletin also stated that floodwaters have inundated 810 villages across the state, while 34,970.8 hectares of agricultural land have suffered damage.

Rivers flowing above danger level

The floods have also damaged embankments, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure in several areas.

Authorities said the Dikhou River in Sivasagar and the Dhansiri River at Numaligarh are flowing above the danger level, and officials continue to closely monitor the situation.

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UP Government forms new SIT led by 3 IPS officers to probe Ayodhya Ram Temple donation theft

The Uttar Pradesh government has formed a new SIT led by three IPS officers to investigate the alleged Ram Temple donation theft case in Ayodhya following Supreme Court directions.

Published

17 hours ago

on

July 26, 2026

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Ram Mandir

The Uttar Pradesh government has reconstituted a Special Investigation Team (SIT) headed by IG Kiran S, with DIG Somen Verma and SSP Dr Gaurav Grover as members, to investigate the alleged theft of donations meant for the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. 

The move comes after directions from the Supreme Court, which sought a reconstituted investigation team to ensure an independent and comprehensive probe into the allegations.

The newly formed SIT is expected to continue the investigation and submit a status report before the Supreme Court on July 27.

Senior IPS officers to lead the probe

According to the state government, the investigation will now be supervised by senior IPS officers.  The revamped SIT has been tasked with examining all aspects of the alleged embezzlement of temple donations and carrying the investigation forward.

The Supreme Court had observed that criminal investigations and technical examination of theft-related cases are more effectively handled by experienced police officers, leading to the reconstitution of the SIT under senior IPS leadership.

Probe to continue under court supervision

The case relates to the alleged embezzlement of offerings (chadhava) donated by devotees at the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya.

The Supreme Court is monitoring the investigation and will review the SIT’s status report at the next hearing.

Authorities are expected to continue examining evidence collected during the earlier stages of the investigation as the newly constituted SIT proceeds with the case.

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