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Exports fall in four years of Modi govt, in 2017 export-to-GDP ratio was lowest since 2005

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Exports fall in four years of Modi govt, in 2017 export-to-GDP ratio was lowest since 2005

Exports of goods to Japan and countries in Africa and Latin America dropped over the four years of Narendra Modi government and grew at single digits to other regions, an IndiaSpend analysis of government data has found.

In yet another blow to Modi government’s propaganda of all round progress, the analysis found that in contrast to its performance in this aspect, the 10 years of the two United Progressive Alliance (UPA-1 and UPA-2) administrations saw 11 percent to 33 percent growth in India’s merchandise exports. Services exports are excluded from this analysis because they are limited to certain geographies because of trade agreements, said IndiaSpend.

Moreover, this decline cannot be attributed to the global trend. The growth rate of goods traded across the world grew 3 percent over the four years to 2018 and grew by 3.3 percent (2009 to 2013) – according to International Monetary Fund.

Various experts attributed the Indian export decline to domestic factors, such as demonetisation, a new goods and services tax (GST) and a new bankruptcy code, said IndiaSpend.

Merchandise exports to China grew between 2014 and 2018 but at less than 1 percent while imports grew at 11 percent; during 10 years of UPA rule, exports to China grew 13 percent and imports 30 percent.

India’s exports to Africa between 2014 and 2018 dipped by 4.22 percent and imports increased 1 percent; during 10 years of UPA rule, exports to Africa increased 22 percent and imports 59 percent.

Overall Indian imports of merchandise grew by 1.6 percent to $465 billion over this period.

India’s exports-to-gross-domestic-product (GDP) ratio at 11.44 percent in 2017 was the lowest since 2005, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Outlook Report 2018.

High trade deficit

Slowing exports and increase in imports (an average annual increase of 1.6 percent from 2014-15 to 2017-18) has pushed the trade deficit from $137 billion in 2014-15 to $162 billion in 2017-18, the highest since 2012-13.

“We are facing serious headwinds at a time when the global economy post 2008 had become extremely fragile,” commerce minister Suresh Prabhu was quoted as saying in The Indian Express on 18 June, 2018.

India’s trade openness – the sum of exports and imports to GDP – was 27 percent in 2016, according to the IMF database, compared to an all-time high of 43 percent in 2012.  Trade openness is an indicator of the economy’s participation in global trade.

“The first of the policy moves was the unique demonetisation experiment,” Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in The Times of India on 4 October, 2017.

“The second was the goods and services tax, which was supposed to bring India in line with global standards but instead added typically Indian layers of complexity. These policies disrupted local businesses, including exporters. Imports have surged to meet consumer demand, widening the trade deficit and cutting into GDP growth.”

The view was echoed by economists Dharmakirti Joshi, Adhish Verma and Pankhuri Tandon. “The implementation of the goods and services tax and associated glitches have had an impact, particularly on small and medium enterprises – evident in low export growth in gems and jewellery, textiles, and leather sectors,” they wrote in a report for Crisil, a ratings agency.

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Man attempting to cross India-Pakistan border in Rajasthan shot dead by BSF personnel

“We are investigating the case under these acts,” he added.

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Border Security Force (BSF) personnel shot and killed an individual attempting to cross the India-Pakistan border in the Ganganagar district of Rajasthan late on Tuesday, according to police.

Jitendra Kumar, the station house officer at Kesrisinghpur police station, stated that the man was trying to breach the barbed wire fence when he was spotted by BSF personnel. “They advised him to leave the area, but when he continued to advance, the BSF personnel shot him,” said the SHO.

Sriganganagar Superintendent of Police Gaurav Yadav confirmed that the suspect was allegedly trying to enter Indian territory around midnight on December 24, 2024. Despite warnings from the BSF soldiers, he did not heed their calls, which resulted in the shooting.

The incident occurred near a village in the Kesarisinghpur area. Items recovered from the intruder included Pakistani currency notes, a cigarette packet, an identity card, and other belongings. Authorities are currently gathering more information about him.

Ongoing discussions are taking place between the armed forces and police officers regarding the incident. An FIR has been filed that includes charges of trespassing and violations of the Passports Act and the Foreigners Act, according to Kumar. “We are investigating the case under these acts,” he added.

This incident is one of several similar occurrences along the border. In August, the BSF apprehended an intruder named Jagsi Kohli, who had entered about 15 kilometers into Indian territory in Barmer after locals alerted authorities that he was asking for directions to Tharparkar, a district in Pakistan’s Sindh province.

In March of this year, another person attempting to cross the border in Ganganagar was shot by BSF personnel. There have been additional incidents reported in October 2022 and twice in March 2021, all resulting in fatalities among the intruders.

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Amit Shah, JP Nadda, Chandrababu Naidu among leaders at NDA meet in Delhi amid Ambedkar row

The alliance had decided to convene on the birthday of the late BJP leader, noted for successfully leading the first coalition government to complete its term.

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP chief J.P. Nadda and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu among leaders of the NDA met in New Delhi on Wednesday to discuss different issues including Shah’s comment on BR Ambedkar days ago in Rajya Sabha.

In attendance, apart from Shah, Nadda and Naidu, JD-U leader and Union minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh, Apna Dal (S) president and Union minister Anupriya Patel, as well as JD (S) leader and Union minister H.D. Kumaraswamy were present.

Also present were Jitan Ram Manjhi, leader of Bihar’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (S) and a minister in the Modi government, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) president Upendra Kushwaha, a Rajya Sabha MP, and Thushar Vellappally, president of Bharath Dharma Jana Sena.

While the specific agenda of the meeting was not officially disclosed, sources indicated that discussions revolved around good governance and various political issues—principles that were central to Vajpayee’s tenure as Prime Minister. The alliance had decided to convene on the birthday of the late BJP leader, noted for successfully leading the first coalition government to complete its term.

Following the meeting, Nadda shared on X, “Attended the NDA leaders’ meeting in New Delhi today. Under the visionary leadership of PM Narendra Modi, India is achieving unprecedented milestones and has positioned itself as a global superpower. The NDA government remains committed to realizing the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat@2047’, ensuring a brighter and more prosperous future for all.”

Sanjay Nishad, chief of the NISHAD Party in Uttar Pradesh, described the meeting as “informal” and focused on Vajpayee’s legacy. He emphasised the importance of unity among all alliance members heading into future elections, mentioning that they congratulated the BJP leaders for their electoral victories in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Nishad further outlined that the meeting addressed coalition strategies to ensure that Prime Minister Modi’s initiatives effectively reach the populace and that electoral promises are fulfilled. He raised the topic of providing reservations for the fishing community, stating, “I presented evidence on this issue, as it was a poll promise. They will follow up with us next week to discuss it.”

Responding to inquiries about whether Amit Shah’s controversial remarks on Ambedkar were discussed, Nishad said, “We are here for the welfare of the people. Our energy should focus on achieving success in that area, rather than engaging with negativity from opposition parties.”

The NDA meeting underscores the alliance’s commitment to the proposed simultaneous elections, with all members backing the initiative. A Joint Committee of Parliament, established to review two bills related to simultaneous polls, is set to convene on January 8.

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Manipur CM Biren Singh says state needs immediate peace, understanding between two communities

He claimed that the administration is responding quickly to the displaced people’s needs in areas such as education and agriculture.

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Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh on Wednesday emphasised the urgent need for peace in the state, which has faced ethnic violence since May of last year, and called on two communities to reach a mutual understanding.

Speaking at the Good Governance Day event held at the state BJP headquarters, Singh expressed confidence that the BJP could restore stability to the northeastern state, highlighting the party’s commitment to coexisting harmoniously.

“What is happening in Manipur today has multiple causes. Those who seek to divide the state are now questioning the government’s actions… they are driven by a desire for power,” Singh remarked.

He mentioned several initiatives, such as ‘Meeyamgi Numit’ (People’s Day), designed to foster closer relationships between officials and the public. “We do not oppose any specific community. The BJP’s position is clear: we advocate for the idea of living together and have initiated efforts to strengthen ties between the police and the community,” he stated.

Singh added that the state government is diligently addressing the needs of internally displaced persons by establishing committees throughout the administrative framework. He claimed that the administration is responding quickly to the displaced people’s needs in areas such as education and agriculture.

“We have not made any mistakes. Our goal is to ensure the well-being of future generations. It is essential for both communities to remain calm. Rather than dwelling on the past, we should concentrate on the upcoming NRC process, capturing biometrics, and using 1961 as the foundation year for the Inner Line Permit,” Singh said.

He also highlighted the government’s commitment to acting within a democratic and constitutional framework, noting that achieving these goals will take time. “What we require now is immediate peace and a resolution of misunderstandings between the two communities,” he concluded.

The ongoing violence has resulted in the deaths of over 250 individuals and left thousands homeless due to clashes between the Meitei community and Kuki-Zo groups since last May.

“Only the BJP can save Manipur. BJP leaders possess strong values of nationalism and social justice, practicing reality-based politics in the nation’s interest. If I am not nominated for a ticket by the BJP, I will remain loyal to the party,” Mr. Singh added.

He also highlighted several unity-focused projects initiated by the BJP government, mentioning that a Unity Mall featuring stalls from all ethnic groups in the state will be constructed with an investment exceeding ₹140 crores.

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