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Hasty GST implementation, noteban to adversely affect GDP: Manmohan

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Manmohan Singh

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Former Prime Minister’s earlier prediction of demonetisation bringing GDP growth down by 2 per cent had recently come true

With his prediction of demonetisation pulling down India’s GDP growth rate by two per cent having recently come true, former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has once again warned against the adverse impact of noteban coupled with effects of the hasty implementation of the Goods and Services (GST) regime on the country’s economy in the near future.

Singh, an economist of international repute, has warned that the hasty implementation of the GST regime that was rolled out in July along with the continuing effect of demonetisation will hit the country’s massive informal and small scale sectors which collectively account for nearly 90 per cent of India’s job creation.

Speaking to CNBC TV18, on Monday, the former Prime Minister said: “Both demonetisation and the GST have had some impact (on the GDP growth)… Both will affect the informal sector and the small-scale sector. These sectors are today responsible for 40 per cent of GDP.”

Singh added that “because the GST has been put into practice in haste, there are many glitches now coming up. This is bound to affect GDP growth.”

The senior Congress leader’s comments come in the wake of recent government data that showed the GDP growth slipping to a three-month low at 5.7 per cent for the April-June quarter – a decline that has been blamed on effects of demonetisation and the GST by a large section of economists and business leaders across the country.

Although the ruling government has been singing praises for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision of October last year to declare the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes as no longer legal tender – a sudden announcement that flushed out 86 per cent of India’s currency from the market – the slump in the GDP had forced even Union finance minister Arun Jaitley to admit that the new tax regime had impacted the country’s manufacturing sector.

As businesses destocked inventories ahead of the GST kick-off from July 1, gross value added (GVA) in manufacturing declined to a low of 1.2 per cent, from 10.7 per cent, year on year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2017-18 was lower than 6.1 per cent of the preceding one and 7.9 per cent in the same period last fiscal.

Jaitley had said that the fall in GDP growth was a “matter of concern”, although he expressed hope that the economy will bounce back to a 7 per cent growth once effects of GST implementation on de-stocking ease in the current quarter.

Singh, however, doesn’t share Jaitley and the Modi government’s optimism. Shortly after demonetisation was implemented, the former Prime Minister had, while speaking in the Rajya Sabha, called the move an “organised loot and legalised plunder”. In the aftermath of the GST rollout too, Singh had told a meeting of the Congress Working Committee – the apex decision making body of the principal Opposition party that the economy was “running on just one engine of public spending”.

While his prediction of a 2 per cent fall in GDP growth rate due to demonetisation has been proven true, much to the chagrin of the Modi government, it remains to be seen whether the Centre will pay heed to the former PM’s advice now.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Union Budget 2026: What the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 retains income tax slabs but offers indirect relief to the middle class through TCS cuts, simpler tax filing, cheaper medicines and higher job-creating expenditure.

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Union Budget 2026: what the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 may not have delivered direct income tax relief to salaried taxpayers, but the government has introduced several indirect measures aimed at easing financial pressure on middle-class households.

While tax slabs remain unchanged, the Budget outlines steps to simplify compliance, reduce taxes on overseas spending, lower the cost of essential medicines, and support job creation through higher public spending.

Income tax status quo continues

The government has retained the existing income tax framework for individuals. Annual income up to Rs 12 lakh continues to remain tax-free, and with the Rs 75,000 standard deduction, effective tax-free income rises to Rs 12.75 lakh.

No changes have been announced in income tax slabs, signalling policy continuity rather than immediate relief for salaried taxpayers.

Compliance relief and tax rationalisation measures

A key focus of Budget 2026 is reducing compliance burdens and improving the taxpayer experience.

The government has proposed a reduction in Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on overseas tour programme packages to 2%, down from the earlier rates of 5% and 20%. TCS under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for education and medical expenses has also been cut to 2% from 5%, providing relief to families sending money abroad for essential purposes.

To ease return filing pressure, timelines have been staggered. Individual taxpayers filing ITR-1 and ITR-2 can continue to file returns till July 31, while non-audit businesses and trusts will now get time till August 31.

Protection for small investors

The Budget proposes taxing all share buybacks as capital gains instead of dividends, a move aimed at protecting minority retail investors.

In another relief measure, interest awarded by Motor Accident Claims Tribunal (MACT) to individuals will be exempt from income tax, and the applicable TDS will be removed.

A single-window system will also be introduced for submitting Form 15G and Form 15H through depositories for TDS on dividends and interest, simplifying compliance for senior citizens and small savers.

Cheaper medicines and essential products

Healthcare costs may ease slightly as the government has announced duty exemptions on about 17 cancer medicines. Personal imports of medicines for seven rare diseases will also be allowed duty-free.

In addition, customs duty relief has been extended to critical components used in the manufacture of microwave ovens, television equipment, leather goods and footwear, which could help moderate consumer prices.

Job creation through higher spending

The government has raised capital expenditure to over Rs 12 lakh crore, with allocations for railways, tourism, logistics and technology sectors. These investments are expected to support employment generation and long-term economic activity, indirectly benefiting middle-class households.

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Budget 2026 balances high capex and growth, says PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Union Budget 2026 strikes a balance between high capital expenditure and strong growth while reinforcing reforms and fiscal discipline.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the Union Budget 2026 strikes a fine balance between high capital expenditure and sustained economic growth, calling it a roadmap for long-term national development.

Speaking after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her ninth consecutive Budget, the prime minister said the proposals reflect a vision of trust-based governance and a human-centric economic framework. He added that India is not just focused on being the fastest-growing economy but is working towards becoming the world’s third-largest economy.

PM Modi said the Budget also reinforces India’s strong global standing and will provide fresh momentum to the country’s reform agenda. According to him, the measures announced will energise what he described as India’s “reform express”.

The prime minister highlighted the Budget’s focus on promoting tourism in the northeastern region, noting that it would create new opportunities and support regional development.

On fiscal management, the finance minister retained the states’ share in the divisible pool of central taxes at 41 per cent. She announced that Rs 1.4 lakh crore has been provided to states as Finance Commission grants for 2026–27, in line with the recommendations of the commission.

The Finance Commission, chaired by Arvind Panagariya, had submitted its report to the President in November 2025 after consultations with states and Union Territories, several of which had sought a higher share.

Sitharaman pegged the fiscal deficit for 2026–27 at 4.3 per cent of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 4.4 per cent for 2025–26. She also said the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 55.6 per cent in 2026–27 from 56.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.

A gradual reduction in the debt burden will help free up resources for priority sectors by lowering interest outgo, the finance minister said.

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Union Budget 2026-27 unveiled seven high-speed rail corridors and a dedicated east-west freight corridor to boost sustainable transport and economic growth.

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presenting the Union Budget 2026-27 in Parliament on Sunday, announced that India will develop seven high-speed rail corridors connecting key cities across the country.

These corridors, described as ‘growth connectors’, aim to promote environmentally sustainable passenger transport systems. The proposed high-speed rail links will connect:

  • Mumbai and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Bengaluru
  • Hyderabad and Chennai
  • Chennai and Bengaluru
  • Delhi and Varanasi
  • Varanasi and Siliguri

In addition to passenger rail, Sitharaman announced a dedicated east-west freight corridor connecting Dankuni in the east with Surat in the west. This initiative, along with the operationalisation of 22 new national waterways over the next five years, is intended to enhance multimodal transport and reduce logistics costs.

“These initiatives will strengthen freight movement and support sustainable cargo transportation,” the Finance Minister said.

The Budget also emphasizes infrastructure development in cities with populations over five lakh (Tier II and Tier III), which have emerged as key growth centres. Sitharaman further proposed a public capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore for the financial year 2026-27.

She outlined that the Union Budget is guided by three core responsibilities—accelerating economic growth, fulfilling aspirations, and ensuring equitable access to resources for families, communities, and regions.

Describing the plans as part of a broader reform agenda, she added, “The ‘Reform Express’ is on its way.”

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