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RBI trims growth forecast amid global trade uncertainties, keeps repo rate unchanged

The RBI has kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.5%, while revising the growth forecast to 6.5% in light of emerging global trade disruptions and the recent US tariff hike on Indian imports.

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Reserve Bank of India

Amid rising global economic uncertainty and the imposition of new tariffs by the United States, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday maintained its key policy rate at 5.5%, while slightly trimming its growth forecast for the current financial year from 6.7% to 6.5%. The central bank also reduced its inflation forecast from 3.7% to 3.1%, citing easing price pressures.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, voted unanimously to hold the repo rate steady, adopting a ‘neutral’ policy stance as it evaluated risks arising from volatile global trade dynamics and shifting geopolitical scenarios.

The decision comes in the backdrop of a 25% import duty imposed by the US on Indian goods, starting Thursday. While Governor Malhotra refrained from making direct comments on the tariff hike, he acknowledged that the uncertainty around external demand and ongoing trade negotiations poses a risk to India’s growth trajectory.

“Prospects of external demand remain uncertain amidst ongoing tariff announcements and trade negotiations. The headwinds emanating from prolonged geopolitical tensions, persisting global uncertainties, and volatility in global financial markets pose risks to the growth outlook,” said Malhotra during the press briefing.

Growth revised, but fundamentals strong

Despite trimming the GDP growth forecast by 0.2%, Malhotra stressed that the Indian economy continues to show resilience. He said that robust domestic fundamentals and economic buffers have helped shield the country from global shocks.

“Growth is robust and as per earlier projections, though below our aspirations. The uncertainties of tariffs are still evolving. Monetary policy transmission is continuing,” he added.

According to the Governor, while India’s economic trajectory is challenged by external pressures, opportunities exist in the changing global order, and policy frameworks across sectors—not just monetary policy—must remain strong and agile.

Inflation outlook improves

The RBI now expects inflation to moderate further, revising its estimate to 3.1% for the current fiscal year. However, Malhotra cautioned that headline inflation could witness a rise towards the end of the year, signaling the need for ongoing monitoring.

Clear policy direction ahead

Reiterating the RBI’s focus on price stability and sustainable growth, Malhotra noted that the central bank will remain data-driven in its future policy decisions.

“We, on our part, will continue to be agile and proactive in providing a facilitative monetary policy based on incoming data and the evolution of the growth-inflation dynamics,” he said, affirming the bank’s commitment to transparent and credible communication.

India News

Union Budget 2026: What the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 retains income tax slabs but offers indirect relief to the middle class through TCS cuts, simpler tax filing, cheaper medicines and higher job-creating expenditure.

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Union Budget 2026: what the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 may not have delivered direct income tax relief to salaried taxpayers, but the government has introduced several indirect measures aimed at easing financial pressure on middle-class households.

While tax slabs remain unchanged, the Budget outlines steps to simplify compliance, reduce taxes on overseas spending, lower the cost of essential medicines, and support job creation through higher public spending.

Income tax status quo continues

The government has retained the existing income tax framework for individuals. Annual income up to Rs 12 lakh continues to remain tax-free, and with the Rs 75,000 standard deduction, effective tax-free income rises to Rs 12.75 lakh.

No changes have been announced in income tax slabs, signalling policy continuity rather than immediate relief for salaried taxpayers.

Compliance relief and tax rationalisation measures

A key focus of Budget 2026 is reducing compliance burdens and improving the taxpayer experience.

The government has proposed a reduction in Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on overseas tour programme packages to 2%, down from the earlier rates of 5% and 20%. TCS under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for education and medical expenses has also been cut to 2% from 5%, providing relief to families sending money abroad for essential purposes.

To ease return filing pressure, timelines have been staggered. Individual taxpayers filing ITR-1 and ITR-2 can continue to file returns till July 31, while non-audit businesses and trusts will now get time till August 31.

Protection for small investors

The Budget proposes taxing all share buybacks as capital gains instead of dividends, a move aimed at protecting minority retail investors.

In another relief measure, interest awarded by Motor Accident Claims Tribunal (MACT) to individuals will be exempt from income tax, and the applicable TDS will be removed.

A single-window system will also be introduced for submitting Form 15G and Form 15H through depositories for TDS on dividends and interest, simplifying compliance for senior citizens and small savers.

Cheaper medicines and essential products

Healthcare costs may ease slightly as the government has announced duty exemptions on about 17 cancer medicines. Personal imports of medicines for seven rare diseases will also be allowed duty-free.

In addition, customs duty relief has been extended to critical components used in the manufacture of microwave ovens, television equipment, leather goods and footwear, which could help moderate consumer prices.

Job creation through higher spending

The government has raised capital expenditure to over Rs 12 lakh crore, with allocations for railways, tourism, logistics and technology sectors. These investments are expected to support employment generation and long-term economic activity, indirectly benefiting middle-class households.

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India News

Budget 2026 balances high capex and growth, says PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Union Budget 2026 strikes a balance between high capital expenditure and strong growth while reinforcing reforms and fiscal discipline.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the Union Budget 2026 strikes a fine balance between high capital expenditure and sustained economic growth, calling it a roadmap for long-term national development.

Speaking after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her ninth consecutive Budget, the prime minister said the proposals reflect a vision of trust-based governance and a human-centric economic framework. He added that India is not just focused on being the fastest-growing economy but is working towards becoming the world’s third-largest economy.

PM Modi said the Budget also reinforces India’s strong global standing and will provide fresh momentum to the country’s reform agenda. According to him, the measures announced will energise what he described as India’s “reform express”.

The prime minister highlighted the Budget’s focus on promoting tourism in the northeastern region, noting that it would create new opportunities and support regional development.

On fiscal management, the finance minister retained the states’ share in the divisible pool of central taxes at 41 per cent. She announced that Rs 1.4 lakh crore has been provided to states as Finance Commission grants for 2026–27, in line with the recommendations of the commission.

The Finance Commission, chaired by Arvind Panagariya, had submitted its report to the President in November 2025 after consultations with states and Union Territories, several of which had sought a higher share.

Sitharaman pegged the fiscal deficit for 2026–27 at 4.3 per cent of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 4.4 per cent for 2025–26. She also said the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 55.6 per cent in 2026–27 from 56.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.

A gradual reduction in the debt burden will help free up resources for priority sectors by lowering interest outgo, the finance minister said.

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Union Budget 2026-27 unveiled seven high-speed rail corridors and a dedicated east-west freight corridor to boost sustainable transport and economic growth.

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presenting the Union Budget 2026-27 in Parliament on Sunday, announced that India will develop seven high-speed rail corridors connecting key cities across the country.

These corridors, described as ‘growth connectors’, aim to promote environmentally sustainable passenger transport systems. The proposed high-speed rail links will connect:

  • Mumbai and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Bengaluru
  • Hyderabad and Chennai
  • Chennai and Bengaluru
  • Delhi and Varanasi
  • Varanasi and Siliguri

In addition to passenger rail, Sitharaman announced a dedicated east-west freight corridor connecting Dankuni in the east with Surat in the west. This initiative, along with the operationalisation of 22 new national waterways over the next five years, is intended to enhance multimodal transport and reduce logistics costs.

“These initiatives will strengthen freight movement and support sustainable cargo transportation,” the Finance Minister said.

The Budget also emphasizes infrastructure development in cities with populations over five lakh (Tier II and Tier III), which have emerged as key growth centres. Sitharaman further proposed a public capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore for the financial year 2026-27.

She outlined that the Union Budget is guided by three core responsibilities—accelerating economic growth, fulfilling aspirations, and ensuring equitable access to resources for families, communities, and regions.

Describing the plans as part of a broader reform agenda, she added, “The ‘Reform Express’ is on its way.”

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