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Winners May Be Losers in Karnataka’s Catch 22 Endgame

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Winners May Be Losers In Karnataka’s Catch 22 Endgame

~By Saeed Naqvi

It was what a film director would have described as a perfect take. “You are a beginner” says he, grinding his teeth in simulated anger. “These are your days to learn”. A measured pause; he emotes. “And you are insulting a former Prime Minister, a senior most leader?” This was Narendra Modi, straight from the Method school of acting.

He was chastising Rahul Gandhi, the Congress President. In the course of a fierce three way election campaign, Rahul, prompted by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, described the JDS as the B team of the Sangh Parivar. Modi tore into Rahul.

The manner in which Modi leapt to Gowda’s defence raised eyebrows. The outburst cast the JDS as a party which had BJP’s sympathies. Modi, at that moment, could have reached out and kissed Gowda.

If this creeping murmur reached Muslim enclaves which were once Congress vote banks, a section of the Muslim vote which would otherwise have travelled towards Gowda, would check itself. This would be ironical: the “S” in JDS stands for secular.

After the demolition of the Babari Masjid in 1992, the disenchanted Muslim vote, walking out of the Congress fold, was waylaid by regional parties. In Karnataka, this vote took respite under the JDS umbrella.

In these circumstances, is the Congress delusion, of being the “only” national alternative sustainable when a pan Indian quantity like Muslims is permanently averse to it in the states? To overtly woo Muslims, Congress leadership has been advised, risks loss of Hindu vote in direct proportion to the saffron in the air. Congress avionics are now conditioned entirely by these weather conditions. Such abject dependence on the weather will have its logic. There will be occasion when the flight will not take off at all.

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Now, the post Babari shortfall has to be made up by holding on assiduously to the Hindu vote. This requires the kind of Hindu cohesion the Congress is not geared for. If it plugs upper caste hemorrhage, the lower castes flow out into regional receptacles.

It cannot do what the BJP does: pose the Muslim as the unstated other for Hindu consolidation. The Congress simply steers clear of the Muslim like one would steer clear of trouble. It differentiates itself from the BJP, though. It has a distinct self image: it’s the party of “good Hindus”. It does not endorse the lumpenization associated with “street” Hindutva or the BJP.

It is a difficult pirouette. How do you project yourself as a squeaky clean Hindu without criticizing excesses in the name of the cow, love jehad, Muslim youth languishing and in jails without trial. National monuments like the Red Fort will now be handed to cement magnates for repair and maintenance and so on.

Alright, the BJP erects its “hard” Hindu  edifice “othering” the Muslims. How does the Congress delineate its “soft” Hindu outlines? Is there clarity or is it all hazy and vague?

Modi chastised Rahul for bad mouthing Gowda. Rahul found it so important to come clean on the subject that he agreed to give his very first newspaper interview since he became Congress President in December to Karnataka’s Deccan Herald group of newspapers.

He said he was not attacking Gowda at all; he was only inviting Gowda to explicitly declare whether he was on “that side or this side”. An epic ideological battle was on between the Congress and the BJP. Choose one.

What was the urgency for him to seek this clarification? In fact it is all the more puzzling because Modi’s intervention was designed to soften Gowda towards the BJP – it was like an olive branch to the JDS. If amplified, this would have the effect of the Muslim vote shifting away from the JDS towards the Congress. Why would Rahul need to neutralize conditions for this possible outcome? Well, it was a gamble. Rahul needs an outright victory with a safe margin. In a House of 224 he needs well in excess of 113 seats. Muslim support might help.

Conventional wisdom in Bengaluru gives Congress 95 to 100; BJP 85 to 90 and JDS 35 to 40 in a hung house. This is dicey – for the Congress. Deve Gowda, as kingmaker will immolate himself but not make Siddaramaiah the Chief Minister.

The moment Rahul looks for an alternative to Siddaramaiah in order to keep Gowda in good humour, a new game will have begun.

If Congress wins outright, the credit must go to Siddaramaiah, whatever self serving message the Congress coterie in New Delhi coaxes out of the result. In a state historically dominated by Vokkaligas and Lingayats, Siddaramaiah has brought under one umbrella the upwardly mobile Kuruba (Shepherd) community as one powerful group. By accepting a demand by a section of the Lingayat community (the late Gauri Lankesh for instance) that they are “outside” the Hindu fold, he has created mild disruption in the Veer Shaivite, Lingayat ranks. BJP’s Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, will face that music.

By replicating, Jayalalithaa’s canteens, selling subsidized rice and pulling out every implement in the populist tool kit, Siddaramaiah has cast a wide net to ensnare the voter. At a time of Rahul’s frenetic temple hopping, Siddaramaiah’s irreligious, Lohiaite persona is refreshing.

What profit for Siddaramaiah to remain affiliated to the Congress if he sees regional actors play a greater role in post 2019 calculations? Who knows he may like to consolidate his regional base. Siddaramaiah is not the only one who is basically averse for a ride in a messy coalition just months before 2019. Supposing Modi calculates that Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh can be bunched with 2019 to his advantage. That is why any long term player will not be enthusiastic about the unstable Karnataka gaddi. But the eager bearer son of Deve Gowda, H.D. Kumaraswamy is aching to ascend the throne even for a few months with BJP support, Gowda’s denials notwithstanding.

From the Bengaluru throne, the Gowdas, BJP, everybody will then train their guns on Siddaramaiah. It is Catch 22 for all.

 

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Rahul Gandhi, Rajnath Singh clash in Lok Sabha over ex-Army chief’s unpublished book on Ladakh

Lok Sabha proceedings were disrupted after Rahul Gandhi cited an unpublished book by former Army chief General MM Naravane on the Ladakh stand-off, drawing objections from Rajnath Singh and other BJP leaders.

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Rahul Gandhi

A sharp confrontation unfolded in the Lok Sabha on Monday after Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi referred to an unpublished book by former Army chief General MM Naravane while speaking on the 2020 India-China Ladakh stand-off, prompting strong objections from treasury benches.

Rahul Gandhi began his address by holding a printout of a magazine article that carried an essay on General Naravane’s yet-to-be-published memoir, Four Stars of Destiny. The reference immediately drew an intervention from Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, who objected to the citation, saying quoting an unpublished book violated parliamentary rules.

Objections from treasury benches

Rajnath Singh demanded that the Leader of Opposition place the book before the House, arguing that since the memoir had not been formally published, its contents could not be cited during proceedings. The objection was echoed by Home Minister Amit Shah, who questioned how references could be made to material that was not publicly available.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju went a step further, suggesting that the House should deliberate on action against members who do not comply with the Speaker’s rulings.

As Rahul Gandhi persisted, repeatedly referring to “Chinese tanks” while discussing the eastern Ladakh situation, the opposition from BJP members intensified, leading to sustained disruptions.

Opposition support and continued disruptions

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav backed Rahul Gandhi, stating that issues concerning China were sensitive and that the Leader of Opposition should be allowed to present his views in the House.

Responding to the objections, Rahul Gandhi questioned the resistance to his remarks, asking what in the book was causing such concern. He maintained that both the article and the contents he was quoting were “100 per cent authentic.”

The Congress leader also said he had not intended to raise the issue but felt compelled to do so after BJP MP Tejasvi Surya questioned the patriotism of the Congress and its leadership.

Government, Congress trade charges

Government sources accused Rahul Gandhi of setting a dangerous precedent by citing material from an unpublished book, alleging that such references could be misused to make unverified claims on the floor of Parliament.

Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi defended her brother, saying he was not attempting to defame the Army and was merely reading an excerpt attributed to the former Army chief. She accused the ruling party of resisting discussion whenever uncomfortable issues surfaced.

House adjourned amid chaos

The repeated interruptions forced Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to adjourn the House till 3 pm. When proceedings resumed, similar scenes played out as Rahul Gandhi again attempted to speak on the subject, leading to further disruptions and another adjournment.

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P Chidambaram avoids commenting on Trump’s dead economy remark echoed by Rahul Gandhi

Chidambaram stays silent on Trump’s ‘dead economy’ remark echoed by Rahul Gandhi as Congress critiques Union Budget 2026.

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P Chidambaram

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday presented her ninth consecutive union budget, stopping just short of Morarji Desai’s record of ten.

Congress MP P Chidambaram, however, avoided commenting on the ‘India is a dead economy’ statement made by former US President Donald Trump last July, which was later echoed by Rahul Gandhi.

Speaking to reporters after reviewing the budget, Chidambaram said he could not respond as he lacked the full context of Trump’s original remarks.

The comment by Trump followed India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil, which the US had criticized as indirectly funding military action in Ukraine. Trump imposed a 25 per cent penalty tariff on Indian imports and added: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”

Rahul Gandhi later supported the statement, saying, “He is right, everybody knows this except the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. I am glad President Trump stated a fact…”

The remark sparked a political debate, with BJP leaders criticizing Gandhi, while some Congress members, including Rajya Sabha MP Rajiv Shukla, called the statement “completely wrong.”

Ahead of the budget, Gandhi had highlighted the impact of US tariffs on small textile businesses, noting on X: “50 per cent US tariffs are badly hurting textile exporters. Job losses, shutdowns… are reality of our ‘dead economy’.”

The debate gained traction following the budget announcement, which did not offer immediate relief to middle-class taxpayers and saw markets react sharply, with the Sensex closing 1,500 points lower on Sunday.

Chidambaram, as usual, led Congress’ critique of the budget, pointing to a decrease in capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP from 3.2 per cent in FY25 to 3.1 per cent, despite the proposal of Rs 12.2 lakh crore for capex. He added, “Revenue receipts short by Rs 78,086 crore… total expenditure short by Rs 1,00,503 crore… revenue expenditure short by Rs 75,168 crore… capex was cut by Rs 1,44,376 crore… not a word was said to explain this…”

Rahul Gandhi echoed the criticism, highlighting issues such as unemployment, farmers’ distress, declining household savings, and low investment. “A budget that refuses course correction and is blind to India’s real crises,” he said on X.

Responding to the criticism, Finance Minister Sitharaman said, “With due respects, I don’t know what course correction he is referring to. The economy and its fundamentals are strong.”

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Earthquake of 4.6 magnitude hits Andaman and Nicobar Islands

A 4.6 magnitude earthquake struck the Nicobar Islands at 10 km depth, highlighting the region’s seismic activity and potential risks from shallow tremors.

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earthquake-tremors

An earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter scale struck the Andaman and Nicobar Islands early Monday at around 3:30 am, the National Center of Seismology (NCS) reported.

According to the NCS, the tremor occurred at a shallow depth of 10 km. The earthquake’s epicenter was located at a latitude of 9.03° North and a longitude of 92.78° East, placing it in the Nicobar Islands region.

In a post on X, the NCS confirmed the details: “EQ of M: 4.6, On: 02/02/2026 03:31:12 IST, Lat: 9.03 N, Long: 92.78 E, Depth: 10 Km, Location: Nicobar Islands.”

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands fall under Seismic Zone V, according to India’s seismic zoning map (1893-1984), making them one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the world. Historically, the islands have experienced several major earthquakes, including the devastating tremor on December 26, 2004, which caused significant land displacement and triggered tsunami waves, resulting in heavy loss of life and property.

Experts note that shallow earthquakes, like the one recorded on Monday, can be more hazardous than deeper ones. Seismic waves from shallow quakes travel a shorter distance to the surface, causing stronger ground shaking and posing higher risks to structures and human safety.

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