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‘Interim’ only in name, an Election Budget in offing; may leave a massive burden for next govt

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‘Interim’ only in name, an Election Budget in offing; may leave a massive burden for next govt

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]What many have been speculating has been given added credence by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley: that the interim budget – an outgoing government presents only a vote on account rather than a full-fledged budget – would be much more than that.

It would be an Election Budget and it may make the previous budgets under Narendra Modi government look like interim budgets. The measures planned by the government are likely to leave the successor government with a bill of over Rs 1 lakh crore, according to a report in The Economic Times (ET).

Speaking at CNBC-TV18’s Indian Business Leader Awards on Thursday, Jan 17, Jaitley, via video conference, said the government could break with convention and make the February 1 exercise more significant than a vote on account.

There is speculation that the government is studying various options, including a cash handout for farmers, to ease their distress and to shore up popular support before the national election that’s due by May. The government has already exceeded its budget deficit targets in October.

Jaitley, while dismissing fears that he is under pressure to present a populist budget after the recent election debacle in three states and ahead of general elections in April-May, ended up confirming the government’s worry and nervousness.

Jaitley said: “The NDA (National Democratic Alliance) government had been in this game for far too long to have nervousness about the budget. We are confident and proud of our performance over the last five years. The NDA government has succeeded in restoring the credibility of the economy and its decision making process over last few years”

In a regime that tends to equate ‘nation’ and ‘nationalism’ with itself, Jaitley said, “Convention has always been that election year Budget is an interim Budget. The larger interest of the nation dictates what will be a part of the interim Budget.”

“If we look at the big picture there have been successes that we have seen in the last few years. There have also been challenges. Therefore, without getting into the specifics, because that would really be disclosing the mind with which we are working, some of those challenges cannot afford to wait,” Jaitley said.

The government has recently announced a series of measures to try to win over farmers, small business owners and the less well-off, after the BJP suffered setbacks in state elections and with a general election due in months.

The measures are likely to be a drain on finances when Modi government is trying to stick to a decade-low fiscal deficit target of 3.3 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

It has, however, promised even more perks ahead of the general election due by May.

“They will be for development, they will be for transformation,” Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad had said in Parliament, saying people should more “sixes during the slog overs”. Translated, it means more inducements for the electorate when elections are near.

Media reports suggest that the Centre is considering various options to address the agricultural distress in the country, one of them is cash handout for farmers. The deliberation over this began after the BJP was voted out in three key state elections in December.

If the government is planning to extend any relief to the farmers, it will impact India’s fiscal deficit which has already reached 114.8 percent of the budgeted target in November. Experts say that the government may not be able to stick to its deficit target this year.

In recent weeks, there has also been buzz of tax cuts for the middle class and other measures in the government’s economic statement ahead of Lok Sabha polls.

The FM said that the government will try to stick to its path of fiscal prudence, but he also added that in “unusual situations”, a deviation from the fiscal consolidation path might be required, which was understood by the markets and analysts.

Talking about the urgent need to uplift the farm sector, Jaitley said, “Whether it is a situation like a natural calamity or a drought or stress in a particular sector — these are all areas which cannot be considered any kind of populist expenditure. Markets will never understand if you act for the sake of populism,” he said. “But if it is in the larger interest because of a compelling situation that develops, I think then it is a rational, logical thing, which markets will also understand,” he added.

Asked on a reduction in interest rates amid slowing inflation, Jaitley suggested there was need for RBI to pare policy rates without making an explicit comment. “We can’t have real interest rates (after budgeting for inflation) higher than anywhere in the world,” he said, adding that the central bank has begun consultations with stakeholders.

What Jaitley said needs to be seen in context of statements of Ravi Shankar Prasad and some others, and the Modi government may make a short-term gain politically but may be disastrous for the economy.

A report in the ET said the vote-catching measures planned by Modi as he braces for a difficult general election may cost more than Rs 1 lakh crore which would have to be borne by the government that will take charge after the election due by May.

The spending is also likely to delay plans to reduce the government’s budget deficit, a key indicator of the nation’s economic health.

Jaitley talked of the need for fiscal prudence but kept an escape route open for “unusual situations”. The BJP’s economic affairs spokesman, Gopal Krishna Agarwal, told Reuters this week that the party does not consider the finance ministry’s plan to keep the fiscal deficit to 3.3 percent of gross domestic product in the current April-March fiscal year as “sacrosanct”.

“Addressing farmer distress is the most important thing,” Agarwal told Reuters. “You need an expansionary policy. You chase growth in the economy, you do not chase these parameters like fiscal deficit.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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BJP-led Mahayuti surges ahead in BMC polls as Thackerays lose Mumbai stronghold

The BJP-led alliance has taken a strong lead in the BMC elections, signalling a major political shift in Mumbai as counting continues across Maharashtra.

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shinde and fadnavis

The BJP-led alliance is heading towards a decisive victory in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, dealing a major blow to the Thackeray cousins’ long-standing control over Mumbai’s civic administration. Early trends from the ongoing vote count show the ruling alliance opening a clear lead in the country’s richest municipal body.

With results still being tallied, the BJP-led bloc is ahead in 115 wards of the BMC. Of these, the BJP is leading in 86 wards, while Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena has an edge in 29 wards.

In contrast, the Thackeray cousins appear to be struggling to retain their grip on the civic body they once dominated for decades. Together, they are leading in 77 wards, with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) ahead in 71 wards and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) leading in six.

High-stakes election after nine-year gap

The BMC elections were held after a nine-year gap, following a four-year delay, making the contest one of the most closely watched civic polls in Maharashtra. Over 1,700 candidates were in the fray for 227 seats in Mumbai alone. The BMC’s annual budget exceeds Rs 74,400 crore, underscoring the political and financial significance of the results.

In the 2017 elections, the undivided Shiv Sena, which then included Eknath Shinde, had retained control of the BMC, continuing its decades-long dominance.

BJP ahead across Maharashtra civic bodies

The BJP’s strong showing is not limited to Mumbai. Across 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra, early trends indicate that the party is leading overall. Combined figures show the BJP ahead in 909 wards, while its ally, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, is leading in 237 wards.

In the party-wise standings, the Congress is placed third with leads in 179 seats, largely from Bhiwandi-Nizampur, Nagpur and Kolhapur. The Shiv Sena (UBT) follows with 118 seats, closely trailed by Ajit Pawar’s NCP, which is leading in 112 wards.

Pune also tilts towards BJP

Pune has emerged as another key battleground, especially as rival factions of the Nationalist Congress Party, led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar, joined hands for the civic polls. Despite the alliance, the BJP is leading in 52 seats in Pune, while the combined NCP factions are ahead in seven seats.

Large-scale polling across the state

Polling for 2,869 seats across 893 wards in the 29 civic bodies was held on Thursday. Around 3.48 crore voters were eligible to cast their ballots, deciding the political fate of 15,931 candidates, including those contesting in Mumbai.

Besides Mumbai and Pune, counting is underway in several other municipal corporations, including Navi Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nagpur, Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Vasai-Virar, Mira-Bhayandar, Solapur, Kolhapur and Aurangabad, among others.

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BJP, Thackerays or Pawars: Maharashtra civic body poll results awaited today

Counting of votes for 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra, including the key BMC and Pune civic bodies, begins today, with BJP, Thackerays and Pawars awaiting crucial results.

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The political balance in Maharashtra’s urban centres will become clearer today as votes are counted for elections to 29 municipal corporations across the state. The results are keenly awaited amid high-stakes contests involving the BJP, the Thackeray cousins and the reunited Pawar factions.

Polling was held for 2,869 seats across 893 wards, with 3.48 crore eligible voters deciding the fate of 15,931 candidates. Counting is scheduled to begin at 10 am.

Mumbai and Pune in sharp focus

All eyes are on Mumbai, where the contest for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has drawn statewide attention. Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray joined hands after more than two decades in a bid to reclaim control of the country’s richest civic body.

The BMC, which has an annual budget of over Rs 74,400 crore, went to polls after a nine-year gap, following a four-year delay. A total of 1,700 candidates contested the 227 seats.

Exit polls suggest a strong performance by the BJP–Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) alliance in Mumbai. An aggregate of multiple surveys projects the ruling alliance ahead, with the Shiv Sena (UBT) and allies trailing, while the Congress is expected to secure a limited number of seats. Exit polls have also indicated possible voting consolidation among Maratha and Muslim voters behind the Thackeray-led alliance, while women and young voters may tilt towards the BJP.

The last BMC election in 2017 saw the undivided Shiv Sena retain control of the civic body it had dominated for decades.

In Pune, the spotlight is on the unusual alliance between rival NCP factions led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar. Exit polls indicate the BJP could emerge as the largest party in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), with both NCP factions and the Shiv Sena also expected to secure a share of seats.

Statewide counting underway

Apart from Mumbai and Pune, counting will take place in several other key municipal corporations, including Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nagpur, Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Mira-Bhayandar, Vasai-Virar, Solapur, Kolhapur, Amravati, Akola, Jalgaon, Malegaon, Latur, Dhule, Jalna, Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad, Nanded-Waghala, Chandrapur, Parbhani, Panvel, Bhiwandi-Nizampur, Ulhasnagar, Ahilyanagar and Ichalkaranji.

With major parties treating these civic polls as a referendum on their urban appeal ahead of future state and national elections, today’s results are expected to shape Maharashtra’s political narrative in the months to come.

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Supreme Court flags risk of lawlessness, pauses FIRs against ED officers in Bengal case

The Supreme Court paused FIRs against ED officers in the Bengal I-PAC raid case, warning that obstruction of central probes could lead to lawlessness and seeking responses from the Centre and state.

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Supreme Court

The Supreme Court on Wednesday delivered a sharp rebuke to the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government, pausing FIRs lodged against officers of the Enforcement Directorate over searches linked to political consultancy I-PAC. The court said the case raises serious questions about interference in investigations and warned that failure to address them could lead to “lawlessness”.

A bench of Justice Prashant Mishra and Justice Vipul Pancholi sought replies from the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Department of Personnel and Training, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress government on the ED’s plea. The central agency has also sought the suspension of Bengal Director General of Police Rajeev Kumar and Kolkata Police Commissioner Manoj Kumar Verma, and a probe by the CBI. The matter will be heard next on February 3.

The ruling follows a standoff between the ED and the Bengal government after the agency conducted searches at premises linked to I-PAC, which manages election campaigns for the Trinamool Congress, in connection with a corruption case.

Court questions obstruction of central probes

Recording its prima facie view, the Supreme Court said the petition raised a “serious issue” concerning investigations by central agencies and possible obstruction by state authorities.

“There are larger questions which emerge and if not answered shall lead to lawlessness. If central agencies are working bona fide to probe a serious offence, a question arises: Can they be obstructed by party activities?” the bench observed.

Earlier in the day, the court also expressed disturbance over scenes of chaos in the Calcutta High Court during a hearing related to the same dispute.

ED alleges interference, seeks action against top cops

The Enforcement Directorate accused the West Bengal administration of interfering with its searches and investigation. Appearing for the agency, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta alleged that evidence was removed from the residence of an I-PAC co-founder and argued that such actions could encourage state police officers to aid and abet obstruction. He sought suspension of senior police officials.

Describing the disruption in the Calcutta High Court on January 9, Mehta called it “mobocracy”, saying a group of lawyers unconnected to the case disrupted proceedings, forcing an adjournment. The bench asked whether the high court had been turned into a protest site, to which Mehta responded that messages had circulated calling lawyers to gather at a specific time.

Banerjee’s counsel defends move, cites election confidentiality

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for Mamata Banerjee, questioned the timing of the ED’s presence in Bengal ahead of Assembly elections. He said the last development in the coal scam case dated back to February 2024 and argued that I-PAC handled election-related work under a formal contract with the Trinamool Congress.

According to Sibal, election data stored at the premises was confidential and critical to campaign strategy. He said the party leadership had a right to protect such information.

Representing the Bengal government and the DGP, senior advocate Abhishek Singhvi referred to the January 9 disruption but argued it could not justify parallel proceedings in different courts. The bench responded that emotions “cannot go out of hand repeatedly”.

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