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Researchers identify missing element in monsoon forecast model

Published

8 years ago

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IndiaMonsoon

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By Sunderarajan Padmanabhan

A group of researchers has identified a missing element that is critical in forecast of rainfall over central parts of India during summer monsoon.

In recent years, a new category of monsoon models – Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) – are being increasingly used for prediction. They model oceans, atmosphere, land and sea-ice through a set of complex mathematical equations, taking into account a multitude of factors that influence the monsoon. These factors involve a variety of time scales and dynamic mechanisms from monsoon depressions to inter-annual factors like Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillations.

One such model, Climate Forecast System, was adopted from the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction and further developed and deployed under the Indian Monsoon Mission to enhance the quality of monsoon prediction. It can simulate large scale features like sea surface temperatures, winds and rainfall and has good ability for retrospective forecasts amongst other models of similar class.

However, the model has “dry bias” with regard to rainfall over Central India, northern Bay of Bengal, and along the Western Ghats. Over these key zones of intense monsoon rainfall, the model underestimates rainfall intensity and variations. The anomaly is particularly severe over Central India. It underestimates rainfallby about 50 per cent.

Researchers from Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) have now found that the problem can be tackled by including simulation of a narrow warm sea surface temperature front or gradient found in the northwest coastal region of Bay of Bengal. Simulations from a regional model indicated that the inclusion of such a front reduces the dry bias over Central India by half to about 25 per cent. This could help in getting a better picture of the rainfall and consequently help in better management of reservoirs in central India.

Speaking to India Science Wire, researchers explained that there is a gradient in the sea surface temperature in the north-west coastal region of Bay of Bengal mainly because of the rivers that flow into the Bay as also wind flow in the area. The river water has lower salt content and is less dense; it lies on top of the sea water near the coast. Normally winds help mix the river water with sea water. In this area, however, the winds are weak. Consequently, the river water layer remains stable. This, in turn, results in the formation of a temperature gradient from the coast into the sea. Studies have shown that the sea surface temperatures vary by as much as 0.5 degrees Celsius from the coastline to 100 km into the sea.

The research team included Dr. Suryachandra A.Rao, Medha Deshpande, Vishnu Thilakan, Malay Ganai, Saji N.Hameed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta and Dachao Jin. The research results have been published in journal Scientific Reports. (India Science Wire)[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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PM Modi hails ISRO after successful GSLV-F17 launch, calls it proud moment

PM Modi congratulated ISRO after GSLV-F17 successfully launched EOS-05, calling the achievement a proud moment for India.

Published

2 days ago

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September 4, 2026

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday congratulated the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) after the successful launch of the GSLV-F17 rocket carrying the EOS-05 Earth observation satellite, describing the achievement as a proud moment for the nation.

The GSLV-F17 lifted off at 2:55 a.m. IST from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota, Andhra Pradesh. The EOS-05 satellite was subsequently placed into its designated sub-geosynchronous transfer orbit.

PM Modi praises ISRO’s growing capabilities

In a post on X, PM Modi said the successful mission reflected the excellence, innovation and expanding capabilities of India’s space sector.

He also highlighted the growing partnership between ISRO and Indian industry, saying it was strengthening India’s space programme and expanding capabilities across the wider space ecosystem.

The prime minister described the successful launch of GSLV-F17 carrying EOS-05 as another outstanding achievement by ISRO and a matter of national pride.

EOS-05 strengthens earth observation capabilities

According to the report, EOS-05 is India’s first-ever imaging satellite from geosynchronous orbit. The satellite is designed to provide continuous observation of the country from an altitude of nearly 36,000 km above Earth.

The mission is expected to strengthen India’s earth observation capabilities and support advanced imaging and observation applications.

ISRO Chairman Dr V Narayanan expressed satisfaction with the mission, saying the satellite was precisely injected into its intended orbit.

Mission Director Thomas Kurian described the launch as a significant milestone for the GSLV programme. He said it was the 19th flight of the GSLV and noted that EOS-05 is the heaviest satellite the launch vehicle has placed into a geosynchronous transfer orbit or sub-GTO orbit.

GSLV-F17 launch vehicle details

The GSLV-F17 stands 51.7 metres tall and has an approximate liftoff mass of 420.5 tonnes.

Science and Technology Minister Jitendra Singh also congratulated the ISRO team following the successful mission. He described EOS-05 as a state-of-the-art Earth observation satellite capable of advanced imaging across visible, infrared, multispectral and hyperspectral bands.

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Indian-origin astronaut Anil Menon begins first mission to International Space Station

Indian-origin NASA astronaut Anil Menon has launched aboard Soyuz MS-29 on his first mission to the International Space Station, where he is expected to spend around eight months conducting research.

Published

2 months ago

on

July 14, 2026

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Indian-origin NASA astronaut Anil Menon has embarked on his first journey into space after successfully launching aboard Russia’s Soyuz MS-29 spacecraft to the International Space Station (ISS).

The mission lifted off from the historic Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan at 8:17 PM on Tuesday. Menon was accompanied by Russian cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina as the three-member crew began their expedition to the orbiting laboratory.

Crew to spend about eight months aboard ISS

The Soyuz MS-29 spacecraft is expected to dock with the International Space Station a little over three hours after launch. Once aboard the ISS, the crew will carry out a range of scientific research and technology demonstration projects during their mission.

The expedition is scheduled to last approximately eight months, with the crew expected to return to Earth in 2027 after completing their planned activities in orbit.

Menon’s maiden spaceflight marks a significant milestone in his astronaut career as he joins the International Space Station crew for long-duration research and operational work.

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Astronaut Shubhanshu Shukla to meet PM Modi after return from historic space mission

Astronaut Shubhanshu Shukla, who recently returned from the ISS as part of the Axiom-4 mission, will meet PM Modi this evening. Parliament will also hold a special discussion on his historic journey.

Published

1 year ago

on

August 18, 2025

By

Subhanshu shukla

Indian astronaut Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla, the first Indian to visit the International Space Station (ISS), will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi this evening at his official residence in New Delhi.

PM Modi to host meeting with astronaut

According to officials, the meeting at 7 Lok Kalyan Marg is expected to take place between 5 pm and 5:30 pm. Shukla, who arrived in India on Sunday, will also be part of the National Space Day celebrations scheduled for August 23.

Warm welcome in India

The astronaut was greeted at the airport by his family, Science and Technology Minister Jitendra Singh, Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta, and hundreds of citizens waving the national flag. Shukla had been in the United States for a year, preparing for the Axiom-4 mission, which launched from Florida on June 25 and docked at the ISS the next day. He served as the mission’s pilot.

Emotional note from Shukla

Before his return, Shukla shared an emotional post on Instagram, expressing mixed feelings of leaving his space colleagues while being eager to meet his loved ones and people of India. He also quoted a song from the film Swades, which he had chosen as his anthem on the launch day.

Parliament session on India’s space journey

In honour of Shukla’s mission, the Lok Sabha is holding a special session today to discuss “India’s first astronaut aboard the ISS – critical role of space programme for Viksit Bharat by 2047.” Union minister Kiren Rijiju said the discussion would highlight the importance of India’s space achievements and future goals.

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