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Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority Until 2019

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Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority Until 2019

~By Saeed Naqvi

Even before elections in Pakistan had taken place the media which articulates the western establishment point of view, like the Economist, had already declared it a “flawed election”; it even screamed “foul play” which the “khaki umpire” (for which read the Army) had rigged.

If you will stand for a mixed metaphor, the “khaki umpire” is, these days, playing the monkey between two cats – the US and China. With Donald Trump and his Deep State apparently engaged in a savage fight to the finish, the balance of advantage must be seen to be with China. But Chinese themselves are keeping their fingers on the China-Pak economic corridor. Imran Khan has expressed reservations on transparency issues. On the other hand, there have been reports that thousands of Pakistan students, who in the past would have been westward bound, have entered Chinese schools of learning. Who knows, this may be the thin end of the wedge.

If the Chinese can decolonize the Pakistani mind to this extent, it must be time for the West to take note. But a sketch that sections of the Army and Imran Khan might be innately anti west can be overdrawn. Yes, Pakistan has choices other than the US which includes Russia, but this does not mean the army will bite the hand that has fed it since its inception.

Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority Until 2019

These are complex times and a durable phenomena like the “West” manifests itself in many forms. After all retired Pakistan armymen, like retirees elsewhere, do keep a steady gaze on post retirement sinecures. A huge opportunity beckons Pakistan retired army officers in Saudi Arabia with its insatiable appetite for a war without end against the Arab world’s poorest country – Yemen.

The new Prime Minister will be pragmatic. He will not seek to impose a moral code on his armed forces. But he will draw some very firm red lines and these red lines will stretch from Pakhtunkhwa right through Afghanistan, the arena of his political baptism and purgatory. That is where he cannot be seen to be striking deals. His political turf will turn to ash if he does.

He should not be seen in the traditional Pathan-Punjabi balance. The brunt of the blowback from the Afghan war was borne by the Pathan region, true, but it was a national catastrophe. Let me explain. Washington twisted Pervez Musharraf’s arm to turn upon those Mujahideen in Afghanistan whom Riyadh, Washington and Islamabad had reared to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. The blowback from the Afghan war singed Pakistan. The Lal Masjid fiasco in Islamabad aggravated an uncontrollable situation. The reverberations from that blowback have not ended yet. Remember, the public outcry was against Musharraf fighting “America’s war” against terrorism. It became all the more shrill when the two brothers controlling Lal Masjid, Ghazi Rashid and Maulana Aziz, led the chorus.

Let me fast forward to the latest American debacle in Syria and its possible impact on the Af-Pak region. Ever since the Russians landed in Syria to fight terrorism, the US, Israel, Saudi bluff has been called. They armed and financed Jabhat al Nusra, Al Qaeda and worse but their town criers amplified these rogue elements as the Free Syrian Army. When almost all the mercenary Islamists had been caught with their trousers down, the existential question arose: what to do with trained terrorists?

When animal lovers in Britain forced an end to the traditional foxhunt, the impulse reached India’s southern hill station of Ootacamund also. The same question arose: what to do with hundreds of pedigree hounds? Good sense dawned and the canines were kept in a deluxe kennel, then distributed among dog lovers. But what do the trainers do with terrorists, trained and tested in action, who have not only tasted blood but have begun to love it? Trained terrorists can only have one use: as assets against any Muslim society the “trainer” wishes to destabilize – Afghanistan, Xinxiang, the Caucasus and so on.

I can quote atleast two recent US Presidents to prove my point. In an interview to Thomas Friedman in August 2014, President Barack Obama made a startling admission. Asked why he had not ordered air attacks against the Islamic State, when it first reared its head, Obama said: “that would have taken the pressure off Nouri al Maliki”, Iraq’s stubbornly anti American, Shia Prime Minister. In other words, the IS advance from Mosul to Baghdad was facilitated to oust Nouri al Maliki, an outcome the US was excitedly waiting for. Maliki had to be punished for the affront of not signing the “Status of Forces agreement” with the US. Eventually Maliki was shown the door.

After having been briefed by the Intelligence Agencies, candidate Donald Trump told Jake Tapper of the CNN: “Where do you think have billions of dollars worth of arms – and cash – gone in the course of our involvement in Syria? To the extremists, ofcourse, I believe so.” He has not budged from this position.

What should worry Imran Khan is the next stage: the transfer of trained terrorists from Syria to Northern Afghanistan. Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei told a Friday congregation in Tehran on January 30. “The US transfer of IS terrorists to Afghanistan is aimed at creating a justification for its (US’s) continued presence in the region.” More recently, Russia’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Morgulov Igor Vladimirovich told a high powered assembly at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi: “IS fighters were being flown to northern Afghanistan”. The Afghan air space is under the control of the US and the government in Kabul. “so who is responsible?” Vladimirovich asked.

Islamabad, Beijing, Moscow are all persuaded that Taleban will have to be part of the solution in Afghanistan. Americans have been marking time with the good Taleban, bad Taleban mantra because they clearly do not have a policy.

The moment is laden with irony for President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul. The emergence of a Pathan in Islamabad should have provided him with comfort. Instead he is having kittens: the Pathan on the other side has an agenda which is totally at cross purposes with Ghani’s. Imran’s agenda would boost his popularity in the country where Ghani, alas, has none. The moral is simple: no sidekick to a foreign power has ever been respected at home.

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Bangladesh envoy meets S Jaishankar, Dhaka foreign minister may visit India in April

India and Bangladesh are stepping up diplomatic engagement as S Jaishankar meets envoy Riaz Hamidullah and discussions begin on a possible visit by Dhaka’s foreign minister.

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Bangladesh envoy meets S jayshankar

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Bangladesh High Commissioner Riaz Hamidullah, marking a key diplomatic engagement amid efforts to further strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries.

The meeting assumes significance as it was Hamidullah’s first interaction with a senior Indian cabinet minister since he took charge in May last year.

Following the meeting, Hamidullah shared on social media that he had a “courtesy call” with Jaishankar and reaffirmed Bangladesh’s readiness to work together with India in areas of shared interest and mutual benefit.

Jaishankar also highlighted the importance of the engagement, noting that discussions focused on advancing bilateral relations between the neighbouring nations.

Possible visit by Bangladesh foreign minister

Diplomatic engagements between the two countries are expected to intensify in the coming weeks. According to sources, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman may visit India in the second week of April.

The visit is likely to be planned alongside his participation in a ministerial-level meeting of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) in Mauritius.

Rahman, who previously studied at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, is considered familiar with India’s strategic and political landscape. He had also visited India in November last year in his earlier role as national security adviser under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.

He was appointed foreign minister after Tarique Rahman assumed office earlier this year.

High-level exchanges expected

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier congratulated Tarique Rahman on his electoral victory and extended an invitation to visit India.

Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla also attended Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony and later conveyed a personal letter from Modi, reiterating the invitation for an official visit.

The recent meeting between Jaishankar and Hamidullah is seen as part of broader diplomatic efforts to maintain momentum in India-Bangladesh relations through sustained high-level dialogue.

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PM Modi speaks to Qatar, France, Jordan, Oman and Malaysia leaders on Middle East tensions

PM Modi held talks with leaders of five nations, stressing dialogue, condemning attacks on energy infrastructure and urging stability in the Middle East.

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PM Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a series of high-level conversations with leaders from multiple countries, including Emmanuel Macron, as concerns grow over the escalating situation in the Middle East.

During separate telephonic discussions with leaders of Qatar, Jordan, Oman and Malaysia, the prime minister stressed the urgent need for de-escalation through dialogue and diplomacy. He also strongly condemned recent attacks targeting energy infrastructure in the region, warning that such actions could worsen tensions.

In his interaction with Qatar’s Amir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, PM Modi conveyed Eid greetings and reaffirmed India’s solidarity with the Gulf nation. He appreciated the support extended to the Indian community and reiterated the importance of ensuring safe and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking with King Abdullah II, the prime minister again underlined the need for restoring peace and stability. Both leaders expressed concern over the evolving situation and agreed that attacks on energy infrastructure could trigger avoidable escalation. PM Modi also acknowledged Jordan’s assistance in facilitating the safe return of stranded Indian nationals.

In a separate exchange with French President Emmanuel Macron, the leaders discussed the urgent need to reduce tensions and maintain diplomatic efforts. Both sides agreed to continue close coordination to support peace initiatives in the region.

PM Modi also spoke with Haitham bin Tariq, where the two leaders emphasised prioritising dialogue for restoring stability. The prime minister condemned violations of Oman’s sovereignty and appreciated its role in helping evacuate people, including Indian citizens.

During his conversation with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, PM Modi exchanged festive greetings and discussed the broader regional situation. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to resolving the crisis through peaceful means.

These diplomatic engagements come amid heightened tensions following military actions involving the United States, Israel and Iran. India has consistently advocated for stability in the region, given its strategic and economic interests, particularly in energy security and maritime trade routes.

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Russian oil tanker rerouted to India amid Middle East crisis, to reach Mangaluru on March 21

A Russian oil tanker bound for China has been diverted to India as Middle East tensions disrupt global energy supply chains.

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A Russian oil tanker carrying around 7.7 lakh barrels of crude oil is set to arrive at India’s New Mangalore port on March 21 after changing its original route to China, a senior government official said on Thursday.

The vessel, Aqua Titan, which sails under the Cameroon flag, departed from a Russian port on January 18. It altered its course while in the South China Sea and is now heading towards India, reflecting shifting global oil trade patterns amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Middle East conflict disrupts global supply

The diversion comes against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The ongoing war involving Iran, along with its retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations, has significantly disrupted oil and natural gas exports from the region. These disruptions have also led to temporary production halts in key energy facilities.

Since the conflict began on February 28, at least four Indian-flagged vessels carrying oil and gas cargo have already reached Indian ports safely.

Indian vessels stranded near Strait of Hormuz

According to the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, a large number of Indian vessels remain stuck near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route.

Currently, 22 Indian-flagged cargo ships, along with 611 seafarers, are stranded in the western part of the Persian Gulf. Additionally, two loaded Indian vessels are positioned in the eastern section of the Strait.

Officials confirmed that authorities, including the Directorate General of Shipping, are closely monitoring the situation in coordination with shipowners, recruitment agencies, and Indian embassies. All Indian crew members in the region are reported to be safe, with no incidents recorded in the past 24 hours.

Global shipping crisis deepens

The disruption is not limited to Indian vessels. Around 700 ships from various countries have reportedly been stranded near the Strait of Hormuz for nearly 20 days. This has impacted global oil flows, with nearly 20 percent of crude supplies from the Middle East failing to reach international markets.

India, which imports about 85 percent of its crude oil needs from over 40 countries, is among the nations most affected by the crisis.

Oil prices surge amid attacks on energy infrastructure

Amid rising tensions, global crude prices have surged sharply, with Brent crude crossing $115 per barrel. Iran has threatened further strikes on regional energy installations following attacks linked to Israeli actions.

Recent incidents include missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, drone attacks on a Saudi refinery along the Red Sea, and fires reported at oil installations in Kuwait.

Government steps up monitoring and response

Authorities have stepped up efforts to manage the situation. The Directorate General of Shipping has facilitated the return of over 472 Indian seafarers so far, including 25 repatriated in the last 24 hours.

Despite the global disruption, India’s ports continue to operate without congestion. Officials confirmed that ports have sufficient storage capacity and are maintaining strict monitoring of vessel movement and cargo handling operations.

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