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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Latest world news

UK condemns security breach at Jaishankar meeting in London

The UK Foreign Office has strongly condemned the security breach involving S Jaishankar in London, emphasizing swift police action. India has urged the UK to take stricter measures against pro-Khalistani elements.

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UK police securing area after security breach involving S Jaishankar

The United Kingdom has strongly condemned the security breach involving India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in London. The UK Foreign Office asserted that the Metropolitan Police acted promptly to address the situation and warned that any attempts to “intimidate and threaten” are unacceptable.

A pro-Khalistani protester attempted to breach security barricades and shouted anti-India slogans outside Chatham House, where Jaishankar had attended an interactive session at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. The foreign minister, who was on the other side of the road, remained unharmed.

Swift police action

In response to the incident, UK authorities emphasized their commitment to security and law enforcement. “The Metropolitan Police acted swiftly to address the situation,” sources from the UK Foreign Office stated. They further condemned the act and reassured cooperation in diplomatic security matters.

A video circulating on social media showed a man attempting to break through the police cordon and block Jaishankar’s motorcade. However, the individual was quickly apprehended by officers on duty.

India’s response

India has expressed strong disapproval of the incident, stressing that host nations must uphold their diplomatic responsibilities. “We condemn the provocative activities of this small group of separatists and extremists,” Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

“We deplore the misuse of democratic freedoms by such elements. We expect the host government in such cases to fully live up to their diplomatic obligations,” Jaiswal added.

This is not the first instance of Khalistani groups attempting to disrupt Indian diplomatic missions in the UK. In March 2023, protesters pulled down the national flag at the Indian High Commission in London, which led India to summon the senior-most British diplomat in Delhi, demanding an explanation for the “absence of security.”

India urges UK to take action

Following the latest security breach, India has once again urged the UK government to take action against separatist elements operating from British soil. The ongoing activities of pro-Khalistani groups in the UK remain a point of contention between the two countries, with India pressing for stricter measures to curb such incidents.

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Latest Science News

NASA astronaut Sunita Williams describes her longest space mission as an emotional rollercoaster

Sunita Williams’ planned eight-day mission turned into a nine-month space stay due to technical faults in Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. NASA now confirms her return on 19 March.

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Sunita Williams

NASA astronaut Sunita Williams is finally preparing to return to Earth after an unplanned nine-month stay in space. Originally intended to be an eight-day mission, her journey stretched unexpectedly due to technical difficulties with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft.

Williams, along with fellow astronaut Butch Wilmore, embarked on the mission in June last year aboard Boeing’s new Starliner capsule. This marked the spacecraft’s first crewed flight. However, technical malfunctions surfaced upon their arrival at the International Space Station (ISS), prompting NASA to deem the capsule unfit for their return. Consequently, the agency opted to send the spacecraft back without any passengers, leaving Williams and Wilmore in space indefinitely.

NASA confirms return schedule

With multiple delays over the months, NASA had to wait for a safe alternative. Now, with the upcoming launch of SpaceX’s Crew-10 mission on 12 March, their replacements will finally arrive at the ISS. The returning astronauts, including Williams, are scheduled to depart on 19 March in an older SpaceX capsule.

Emotional and mental challenges of prolonged space stay

Speaking during a press conference, Williams reflected on the challenges of an extended mission. She described the experience as “an emotional rollercoaster,” emphasizing the difficulty of being away from family for such an extended period.

While the ISS provides astronauts with an extraordinary perspective of Earth and space, the psychological toll of isolation and uncertainty has been a significant challenge. Williams’ return will mark the end of an unexpectedly long and complex mission, highlighting both the rewards and difficulties of human spaceflight.

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US Supreme Court rejects Trump’s bid to avoid paying USAID contractors, beneficiaries

Justice Samuel Alito, leading the dissenting conservative justices, criticized the ruling, calling it a reward for “an act of judicial hubris” and arguing that it imposes a $2 billion burden on American taxpayers. Alito contended that Judge Ali lacked the authority to mandate such payments.

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The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a federal judge’s authority to order the Trump administration to pay $2 billion to contractors of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) but stopped short of requiring immediate payment. The 5-4 decision rejected an emergency application filed by the Justice Department, which sought to block the order issued by U.S. District Judge Amir Ali.

Judge Ali had issued a series of rulings demanding the government release funds that President Donald Trump froze through an executive order targeting what he called wasteful foreign aid programs. While the Supreme Court’s decision is a temporary setback for the Trump administration, the nonprofit organizations and businesses awaiting payment remain in limbo. One organization recently laid off 110 employees due to the funding freeze, according to court documents.

Justice Samuel Alito, leading the dissenting conservative justices, criticized the ruling, calling it a reward for “an act of judicial hubris” and arguing that it imposes a $2 billion burden on American taxpayers. Alito contended that Judge Ali lacked the authority to mandate such payments.

The Supreme Court’s decision leaves in place Ali’s temporary restraining order, which had paused the spending freeze. Judge Ali is scheduled to hold a hearing on Thursday to consider a more permanent solution.

The majority opinion, supported by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett alongside the court’s three liberal justices, noted that the Trump administration had not challenged Ali’s initial order but only the deadline for compliance, which has already passed. The court instructed Ali to clarify the government’s obligations under the temporary restraining order, taking into account the feasibility of compliance timelines.

Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh joined Alito in dissent.

The Trump administration argued that the situation had evolved since the initial freeze, as it replaced the blanket spending halt with individualized assessments. These assessments led to the cancellation of 5,800 USAID contracts and 4,100 State Department grants, totaling nearly $60 billion in aid.

The funding freeze was implemented following an executive order by President Trump, who criticized foreign aid programs as wasteful and misaligned with his foreign policy objectives. The subsequent lawsuit alleged that the freeze violated federal law and disrupted critical, life-saving programs abroad.

Judge Ali initially ordered the temporary restoration of funding on February 13. However, after nearly two weeks of non-compliance, he set a deadline for the government to release payments for work already completed. The administration appealed, calling Ali’s order “incredibly intrusive and profoundly erroneous” and objecting to the timeline for releasing the funds.

The Supreme Court’s decision underscores the ongoing tension between the judiciary and the executive branch over the administration’s foreign aid policies. While the ruling affirms the judiciary’s role in overseeing executive actions, the delay in payment leaves contractors and aid organizations grappling with financial uncertainty.

As the legal battle continues, the fate of billions of dollars in foreign aid remains unresolved, with significant implications for global humanitarian efforts and U.S. foreign policy.

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