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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Netanyahu dismisses death rumours in video with US envoy, says I’m alive

Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu has denied viral claims about his death, appearing in a video with US envoy Mike Huckabee and mocking online conspiracy theories.

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PM Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister appears alongside US envoy, addresses conspiracy theories and ongoing conflict remarks

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly dismissed viral rumours about his death, appearing in a fresh video alongside US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee.

The video surfaced after days of speculation online, where misleading posts questioned his absence and circulated claims about altered footage showing him with “six fingers.”

In the clip, Huckabee jokes that US President Donald Trump had asked him to personally check on Netanyahu. Responding with humour, Netanyahu says, “Yes, Mike. Yes, I’m alive.”

Rumours and online claims gain traction

Speculation had intensified across social media as tensions escalated between Israel and Iran.

Some posts claimed Netanyahu had not been seen publicly, while others pointed to a previous video where his hand appeared unusual, fuelling conspiracy theories about manipulated or AI-generated footage.

Remarks on iran conflict

During the interaction, Netanyahu also made comments referencing Israeli strikes, mentioning Iranian figures including Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

Using a metaphorical tone, he spoke about “erasing names” from a list, while praising US support and reiterating Israel’s stance against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Huckabee responded in a lighter tone, joking that his own name was not on the list, to which Netanyahu replied that he was among the “good guys.”

Earlier video mocked conspiracy

Before releasing this clip, Netanyahu had already addressed the rumours in another video posted online. Sitting at a café, he joked about being “dead for coffee,” using a phrase implying strong liking.

He also directly responded to the “six fingers” claim by showing both hands to the camera and inviting viewers to count his fingers.

The videos appear aimed at countering misinformation circulating online as geopolitical tensions continue in the region.

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US strikes Iranian missile sites near Hormuz with 5,000-pound bunker buster bombs

US forces hit Iranian missile positions near the Strait of Hormuz using deep penetrator bombs to counter threats to global shipping.

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In a major escalation aimed at restoring maritime movement, the United States has carried out airstrikes on Iranian missile positions near the Strait of Hormuz using powerful deep-penetration bombs.

The US military confirmed that multiple 5,000-pound bunker buster munitions were used to target hardened missile infrastructure along Iran’s coastline. According to an official statement, the sites housed anti-ship cruise missiles that posed a significant threat to international shipping in the strategic waterway.

The strikes mark the first major US military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iran reportedly shut it down in response to the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel.

Strait disruption triggers global concern

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global النفط transit route, with nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it. Its closure has severely disrupted shipping activity and triggered a sharp rise in global energy prices.

The US action appears to be aimed at neutralising immediate threats to vessels and restoring safe passage through the region.

Allies reluctant to back US move

The development comes amid reports that several US allies, including NATO members, have declined calls from President Donald Trump to support efforts to secure the strait.

Expressing frustration, Trump criticised allies for not contributing even limited resources such as minesweepers, despite longstanding US support to NATO. He maintained that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a priority for global security.

However, Iran has consistently denied pursuing nuclear weapons, stating that its nuclear programme is intended solely for peaceful purposes, including energy production.

Use of bunker buster bombs

The bombs used in the operation are designed to destroy fortified or deeply buried targets. These 5,000-pound munitions, often referred to as bunker busters, are capable of penetrating hardened structures before detonation.

While powerful, they are smaller compared to the 30,000-pound bombs reportedly used by the US in previous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

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Top US counterterrorism official resigns over Iran war, cites conscience

Joseph Kent steps down as US counterterrorism chief, questioning the justification for the Iran war and citing moral concerns.

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Trump official resigns

A senior US national security official has stepped down in protest against the ongoing war with Iran, citing moral concerns and disagreement with the administration’s decision.

Joseph Kent, who headed the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned from his post, stating he could not support the conflict “in good conscience.” In his resignation letter, Kent argued that Iran did not pose an “imminent threat” to the United States.

He also alleged that external pressure, particularly from Israel and influential pro-war voices, played a role in shaping the decision to enter the conflict under President Donald Trump.

“I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” Kent wrote, adding that the US had been drawn into the conflict despite a lack of direct threat.

Kent further claimed that a “misinformation campaign” by senior Israeli officials and sections of the American media contributed to building support for military action. According to him, this created an “echo chamber” that influenced the president’s perception of Iran as an immediate danger.

In his letter, Kent said that until mid-2025, Trump had acknowledged that prolonged wars in the Middle East had drained US resources and cost lives. However, he suggested that this position shifted under sustained pressure and messaging.

He urged the president to reconsider the course of action, warning that the conflict could push the country toward instability. “You can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation, or allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos,” he wrote.

Kent’s resignation marks the first high-level departure from the administration directly linked to the Iran war.

As head of the National Counterterrorism Center, Kent was responsible for analysing and monitoring terrorist threats. His tenure, however, had been controversial. He was confirmed to the role last year by a narrow Senate vote, facing strong opposition from Democrats over his past associations.

Critics had raised concerns about his links to far-right figures and his stance on conspiracy theories. During his earlier political campaign, Kent had professional associations with individuals connected to extremist groups, which became a point of contention during his confirmation hearings.

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