English हिन्दी
Connect with us

Latest world news

The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

Published

on

The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Latest world news

Putin deliberately chose Christmas to attack, says Zelensky as Russia targets Ukrainian energy infrastructure

The Ukrainian Air Force stated that multiple missiles had been launched at the Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Poltava regions in the east.

Published

on

Russian President Vladimir Putin chose Christmas Day deliberately to launch a brutal assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread explosions throughout the country, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday.

The attack involved a significant barrage of missiles and drones aimed at critical energy facilities, including a thermal power plant, prompting citizens to seek refuge in metro stations on Christmas morning.

“Today, Putin intentionally chose Christmas for this attack. What could be more inhumane?” Zelensky remarked, asserting that Russia is resolutely pursuing a strategy to cause blackouts across Ukraine.

He emphasised that each large-scale Russian strike necessitates careful preparation, stating, “It is never a spontaneous decision. It is a deliberate choice—not only of targets but also of timing.”

In his statement on X, Zelensky reported that more than 70 missiles, including ballistic types, and over 100 attack drones were launched at Ukraine’s power infrastructure.

Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said that at least one person was killed in the Dnipro region due to the attacks. He noted that heating services were disrupted for 155 residential buildings in Ivano-Frankivsk and that around 500,000 residents, or 2,677 buildings, in the Kharkiv region, were left without heat.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha mentioned that one Russian missile had passed through Moldovan and Romanian airspace. He added that Ukraine managed to intercept at least 50 missiles and a considerable number of drones during the attack.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko stated that Russia had significantly targeted the country’s energy infrastructure again in a Facebook post. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that multiple missiles had been launched at the Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Poltava regions in the east.

“The electricity distribution system operator is implementing necessary measures to limit consumption in order to reduce the negative impact on the power system,” he explained. “Once the security situation permits, energy workers will assess the damage.”

DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, reported that a Russian strike hit one of their thermal power plants on the morning of December 25, 2024, marking the 13th attack on Ukraine’s power grid this year. CEO Maxim Timchenko condemned the assault on X, stating, “Denying light and warmth to millions of peace-loving people celebrating Christmas is a depraved and evil act that must be answered.”

In response to the massive missile attack, the Ukrainian state energy operator, Ukrenergo, implemented preemptive power outages nationwide, resulting in electricity shortages in several districts of Kyiv.

In Kharkiv, at least seven strikes ignited fires throughout the city, as reported by regional head Oleh Syniehubov on Telegram. Authorities confirmed at least three injuries. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov warned residents, “Kharkiv is under heavy missile fire. A series of explosions have occurred in the city, and ballistic missiles are still incoming. Please stay in safe locations.”

Continue Reading

Latest world news

Russia-bound Azerbaijan Airlines plane with 60 passengers crashes near Kazakhstan’s Aktau

Azerbaijan Airlines in a statement said the flight had made an emergency landing approximately three kilometres near Aktau.

Published

on

Russia-bound Azerbaijan Airlines plane with 60 passengers crashes near Kazakhstan’s Aktau

Many people are feared dead after a plane carrying 60 people crashed while making an emergency landing near Kazakhstan’s Aktau city on Wednesday. The authorities said that twelve people survived the crash.

Russian news agencies reported that Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 was en route from Baku to Grozny in Russia, but was rerouted due to fog in Grozny.

Furthermore, Kazakh media had initially reported that 110 people – 105 passengers and five crew members were on board. Later, the authorities revised the number to 72 – 67 passengers and five crew members.

A visual showed the moment the plane loses altitude and makes a rapid descent before it crashes and bursts into flames. As the plane crashes, plumes of smoke are seen rising on the spot. The plane crashed into an open field and burst into flames.

Kazakhstan’s emergency ministry stated that emergency services extinguished the fire at the crash site, adding that survivors were rushed to a nearby hospital for medical assistance.

Azerbaijan Airlines in a statement said the flight had made an emergency landing approximately three kilometres near Aktau. It added that the Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, flight numbered J2-8243 on the Baku-Grozny route, made an emergency landing approximately three kilometres near the city of Aktau. Additional information regarding the incident will be provided to the public, it mentioned. Reports stated that the authorities said they had begun looking into different possible versions of what had happened, including a technical problem.

Meanwhile, in another recent deadly plane crash, 10 people died on Sunday after a small aircraft crashed in a Brazilian town that’s popular with tourists. The 10 deceased were passengers and crew on board. Over a dozen people on the ground were injured in the incident, Brazil’s Civil Defence Agency said.

The Civil Defence Agency said that the plane hit the chimney of a home and then the second floor of a building before crashing into a mobile phone shop in a largely residential neighbourhood of Gramado.  It was not immediately clear what caused the crash.

Continue Reading

Latest world news

YouTuber Zara Dar clarifies misconceptions, denies being Pakistani, and explains decision to quit PhD for OnlyFans

Published

on

Zara Dar clarifies her background and career change in a social media post

YouTuber Zara Dar, who sparked significant attention after revealing she was leaving her PhD studies to pursue a full-time career on OnlyFans, has addressed a series of misconceptions circulating about her. In a series of posts on social media platform X, Dar clarified the misinformation and took the opportunity to set the record straight on several points, particularly regarding her background and career shift.

The controversy began when Zara posted a video explaining her decision to quit her PhD in engineering and focus on adult content creation. The video quickly went viral, with some viewers misinterpreting or distorting the details of her story. One of the most prevalent rumors was that Zara Dar was of Pakistani origin.

In her clarification, Zara stated, “With all due respect, I am not Pakistani. I am American, born and raised, with a mixed background: American, Persian, Southern European, Middle Eastern, and Indian.” She explained that her name, “Darcy,” which she shortens to “Dar,” led to confusion, as it resembled that of a different Pakistani influencer, Zara Dar.

Zara also addressed the emergence of fake content under her name, including deepfake videos, and vehemently denied any associations with such material. She emphasized that, despite the false claims, she had not given any exclusive interviews and had only used social media to share her story.

Regarding her decision to leave academia, Zara shared that her shift to OnlyFans, while financially rewarding, also provided her with the freedom she felt was missing in her academic career. “It has given me the freedom to learn and share new content,” she stated, adding that while she had stepped away from her PhD, she would still continue to create educational content on her YouTube channel.

The announcement sent shockwaves across her fanbase, as many were surprised by her drastic career change. However, Zara explained that the decision was motivated not only by financial viability but also by her desire for personal autonomy outside the rigid structures of academia.

As Zara Dar continues to navigate the shift from academia to content creation, she remains committed to building her brand while tackling the misinformation surrounding her. Through her candid social media posts, she aims to keep her followers informed and provide clarity on her personal and professional choices.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com