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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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8 years ago

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Trump calls it a wonderful gesture as Machado presents him Nobel Peace Prize medal

Donald Trump described it as a “wonderful gesture” after Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal during a White House meeting.

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January 16, 2026

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US President Donald Trump has described it as a “wonderful gesture” after Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal during a meeting at the White House.

Trump praised Machado publicly after the interaction, saying she had been through “so much” and that the act reflected “mutual respect.” He said the medal was given to him for the work he has done, according to his post on his social media platform.

The gesture, however, has drawn attention as the Nobel Institute has clarified that a Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred to another individual.

Nobel Institute rules out transfer of prize

The Nobel Institute has stated that Machado is not permitted to give her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump. Despite this, a White House official confirmed that Trump intends to keep the medal, even if the act remains symbolic.

Trump has long expressed interest in the Nobel Peace Prize, making the episode particularly notable despite the formal limitations placed on such honours.

Political context behind the meeting

Machado had been widely regarded as Venezuela’s democratic leader-in-waiting before Trump’s recent policy decisions regarding the country. Earlier this month, Trump declined to fully back her challenge to Venezuela’s ruling regime and instead signalled openness to engaging with leaders linked to the existing power structure.

Trump has publicly questioned Machado’s ability to lead, saying she lacks sufficient support and respect within Venezuela. Her political party is believed to have won the 2024 elections, results that were rejected by President Nicolas Maduro.

Trump has also indicated a willingness to work with acting President Delcy Rodriguez, who previously served as Maduro’s deputy.

What Machado said after the meeting

Speaking to reporters after leaving the White House and heading to Capitol Hill, Machado said she presented the medal to the US president as recognition of his “unique commitment” to Venezuela’s freedom.

She added that Trump did not provide detailed assurances during their closed-door discussion, including on the issue of elections in Venezuela. No further specifics of the meeting were disclosed.

Afterwards, Machado greeted supporters gathered near the White House gates, hugging several of them. Addressing the crowd, she said they could count on President Trump, prompting brief chants of appreciation from those present.

Machado’s recent public appearance

Before her visit to Washington, Machado had largely stayed out of public view since travelling to Norway last month, where her daughter accepted the Nobel Peace Prize on her behalf. She had spent nearly a year in hiding in Venezuela before appearing at the ceremony.

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US freezes immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, India not in list

The United States suspends immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, excluding temporary visas, as part of stricter immigration measures.

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1 day ago

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January 15, 2026

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The United States has indefinitely suspended immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, targeting individuals seeking permanent residency based on nationality. The move, set to take effect on January 21, excludes tourist and temporary work visas, but is expected to have a significant impact on family-based immigration.

Reasons behind the visa freeze

The US State Department said the suspension aims to prevent the entry of foreign nationals likely to require government welfare and public benefits. “The Trump administration is bringing an end to the abuse of America’s immigration system by those who would extract wealth from the American people,” said State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott.

While the administration cites the risk of immigrants draining government resources, studies by the Cato Institute and other research groups suggest immigrants generally use fewer benefits than US-born citizens.

Who will not be affected

Temporary visas for tourists, business travelers, and sports fans remain unaffected. Exceptions are also allowed for individuals with dual nationality, a valid passport from a country not on the list, or travel serving an “America First” national interest. Approved visas that have not yet been printed must be refused according to the State Department.

Countries affected

The visa freeze covers nations across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Some of the most affected countries include Pakistan, Bangladesh, Somalia, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Brazil, Nigeria, and Thailand.

Other countries on the full list include Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Myanmar, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, The Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, North Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Nepal, Nicaragua, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, and Yemen.

Trump administration immigration record

The Trump administration has already imposed stricter vetting procedures over the past year, revoking over 100,000 visas and deporting more than 605,000 people, with 2.5 million others leaving voluntarily. Critics highlight that the policy disproportionately affects immigrants from non-European countries.

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Anything less than US control of Greenland unacceptable, says Trump

Donald Trump has said American control of Greenland is vital for national security and missile defence, reigniting debate over the Arctic island’s strategic importance.

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2 days ago

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January 14, 2026

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US president Donald Trump has said that American control over Greenland is essential for the United States’ national security, describing it as “vital” for a planned air and missile defence system known as the Golden Dome.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump claimed the United States “needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security” and asserted that the Arctic island plays a key role in the proposed defence architecture. He further said that NATO would become “far more formidable and effective” if Greenland were under US control, adding that “anything less than that is unacceptable.”

Comments ahead of US-Denmark talks

Trump’s remarks came just hours before senior Danish and Greenlandic officials were scheduled to hold talks at the White House with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The discussions are focused on Greenland and broader security issues in the Arctic region.

Responding to US concerns, Denmark’s defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the country was increasing its military presence in Greenland. He also noted that Copenhagen was in discussions with allies regarding a stronger NATO footprint in the Arctic.

NATO role and strategic concerns

Trump said NATO “should be leading the way” in building the proposed multi-layer missile defence system. He warned that if the alliance did not act, rival powers could step in, stating that Russia or China might otherwise take the lead.

The US president has repeatedly spoken about taking control of Greenland, a strategically located and sparsely populated island that is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. His renewed comments underline continued US interest in the Arctic’s strategic importance amid rising global security competition.

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