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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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8 years ago

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Asim Munir appointed Pakistan’s first Chief of Defence Forces, to serve 5-year term

Field Marshal Asim Munir has been appointed Pakistan’s first Chief of Defence Forces, consolidating top military authority under a new constitutional amendment.

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10 hours ago

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December 5, 2025

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Pakistan has named Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir as its first Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), marking a major restructuring in the country’s military command. The appointment was approved by President Asif Ali Zardari following a formal recommendation from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Munir to hold dual charge as COAS and CDF

According to the President’s office, Munir will serve concurrently as Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) and Chief of Defence Forces for a five-year tenure. The creation of the CDF role — introduced under the 27th Constitutional Amendment — aims to centralise top-level military authority.

This decision comes after days of speculation due to delays in issuing the official notification, which was originally expected on November 29, the day Munir’s previous three-year term as army chief ended.

Former Indian security official Tilak Devasher had earlier commented to media that the Prime Minister appeared to be avoiding issuing the notification, leading to confusion within Pakistan’s military command structure.

Zardari also approves extension for Air Chief

Alongside Munir’s elevation, President Zardari approved a two-year service extension for Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar Sidhu, effective from March 2026. The President extended his best wishes to both officers.

Munir, promoted to Field Marshal earlier this year, becomes only the second military officer in Pakistan’s history to hold this rank — the first being Gen. Ayub Khan.

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Imran Khan accuses Asim Munir of mental torture, says sister after rare jail meeting

Imran Khan has alleged “mental torture” inside Adiala Jail, according to his sister who met him after weeks of blocked access. The family claims authorities are withholding information about his condition.

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3 days ago

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December 2, 2025

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Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has alleged that he is being “mentally tortured” in prison and held General Asim Munir responsible for his continued isolation, according to his sister Dr Uzma Khanum, who met him inside Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail for 20 minutes.

Sister says Khan “angry” over isolation

Dr Khanum told reporters that her brother is allowed out of his cell only briefly and has no means of communication with the outside world. She said Khan expressed anger over the conditions in which he is being held, stating he remains confined all day with no access to his family or party members.

She also said Imran Khan directly blamed General Asim Munir — now seen as Pakistan’s most powerful authority, having consolidated military control and secured lifetime immunity for top officials — for the treatment he is receiving in custody.

Meeting follows weeks of denied access

The rare meeting came after weeks of barred family visits, which fuelled speculation about Khan’s health. His sisters earlier claimed they were assaulted when they sought permission to meet him, while his sons publicly alleged that jail authorities were concealing “something irreversible” about his condition.

One of his sons, Kasim Khan, told media that despite a court order for weekly family meetings, they had no direct or verified contact.

Family members also said prison authorities repeatedly refused entry to Imran Khan’s personal doctor.

Rumours and protests intensify

Before Tuesday’s meeting, neither his relatives nor his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf colleagues had seen him for over 25 days, triggering widespread rumours of his death — speculation that officials did not counter with proof of life even as pressure mounted on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government.

PTI’s Senator Khurram Zeeshan claimed Khan was being kept in isolation to force him into leaving Pakistan and accused authorities of withholding photos or videos due to fears over his influence.

The situation has sparked protests across Islamabad and Rawalpindi, including demonstrations outside the Islamabad High Court.

In jail since August 2023

Imran Khan, the 72-year-old former cricketer and World Cup-winning captain, has been incarcerated since August 2023. Rumours about his wellbeing first circulated from social media accounts in Afghanistan, at a time when both countries have been locked in military tensions over a border dispute.

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Trump pledges permanent pause on migration from Third World countries in Thanksgiving message

US President Donald Trump declared that migration from all Third World countries will be permanently paused, criticising current immigration policies and announcing measures to remove non-citizens who he says do not benefit the US.

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1 week ago

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November 28, 2025

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US President Donald Trump has announced that he will “permanently pause migration from all Third World countries”, asserting that the move is necessary for the United States to “recover” and “heal”. His remarks were delivered in a Thanksgiving post, where he sharply criticised the Biden administration’s immigration policies and outlined sweeping measures aimed at restricting migration and removing non-citizens who, he says, do not contribute to the country.

Trump said he intends to reverse what he described as “illegal admissions”, end federal benefits for non-citizens, and strip citizenship from migrants who pose security concerns. He also reiterated plans to deport individuals he considers a “public charge” or “non-compatible with Western Civilization”.

The statement came shortly after two members of the National Guard were shot near the White House, an attack Trump called an “act of terror”.

One National Guard member dies after Washington shooting

Trump confirmed that Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, one of the two West Virginia National Guard soldiers shot near Farragut West Metro station on Wednesday, died of her injuries. The ambush occurred while Trump was in Florida.

The alleged shooter was identified as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a 29-year-old Afghan national who entered the US in September 2021, according to enforcement officials.

‘Reverse migration’ needed, says Trump

In his post, Trump said his actions aim to significantly reduce “illegal and disruptive populations”, adding that only “reverse migration” can address the current situation. He accused the Biden administration of admitting migrants through an “unauthorized and illegal” approval process.

Concluding his message, he wished Americans a Happy Thanksgiving but added that those who “hate, steal, murder, and destroy” would “not be here for long”.

Attacks on foreign populations and Minnesota officials

Trump also targeted Somali refugees in Minnesota, alleging that gangs from the community are creating fear on the streets. He accused the Minnesota Governor of failing to address the situation due to “fear or incompetence”.

He further criticised Ilhan Omar, accusing her of complaining about the US despite her origins in a “crime ridden” nation.

Comments on America’s foreign-born population

Citing Census estimates, Trump claimed that the US foreign-born population stood at 53 million, alleging that “most are on welfare” or come from “failed nations” or criminal backgrounds. He said American citizens continue to support this population despite personal discomfort.

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