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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Khaleda son Tarique Rahman arrives to rapturous welcome in Bangladesh

Tarique Rahman returned to Bangladesh after 17 years and, in his first speech, invoked Martin Luther King while outlining what he called a plan for the country’s future.

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Khalida Zia son

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman, who returned to Bangladesh on Thursday after 17 years in exile, outlined his political vision in his first public address, drawing a comparison with American civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous “I have a dream” speech.

Addressing a massive gathering in Dhaka, Rahman said that just as Martin Luther King spoke of a dream, he wished to speak of a concrete plan for Bangladesh. He referred to the country as “Beloved Bangladesh” and thanked party leaders, workers and citizens who stood by the BNP during his absence.

Rahman, the son of former President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, said that his plan would succeed only with public support and urged citizens to participate actively in nation-building.

Parallels drawn with 1971 and 2024 movements

In his speech, Rahman linked the 1971 Liberation War with the 2024 uprising against the government of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. He said those who lost their lives in these movements should be honoured by building the country they had envisioned.

“We liberated Bangladesh in 1971, and we liberated it again in 2024,” he said, adding that the events of 2024 were about defending the country’s independence and sovereignty. He stressed the need to “repay the blood debt of the martyrs” through responsible governance.

Emphasis on tolerance, safety and economic rights

Touching upon Bangladesh’s social fabric, Rahman said the country belongs to everyone, irrespective of religion or geography, and underlined the importance of tolerance. He spoke about creating a safe environment where women, men and children can move freely without fear.

He also said the BNP would focus on peace, political reform and strengthening the economy. Referring to student leader Sharif Osman Hadi, Rahman said he had dreamt of a democratic Bangladesh and promised justice in connection with his killing, along with restoring people’s economic rights.

Call to youth and visit to Khaleda Zia

Rahman called upon the younger generation to take responsibility for development and stability, stressing that collective effort would be crucial to implementing his plan for Bangladesh.

After the address, he left to visit his ailing mother, Khaleda Zia, who is undergoing treatment at Evercare Hospital.

Rahman has been living in exile since 2008 following convictions in multiple corruption cases, which he has described as politically motivated. He has also alleged that the previous government attempted to assassinate him through torture.

With the Awami League barred from contesting elections, the political landscape has narrowed significantly. The BNP now holds a dominant position, and Rahman’s return has added fresh momentum and uncertainty to Bangladesh’s political future.

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Tarique Rahman returns to Dhaka after 17 years, massive crowd greets BNP leader

Tarique Rahman returned to Bangladesh after more than 17 years in exile, with thousands of BNP supporters gathering in Dhaka to welcome the party’s acting chairman.

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Tariq Rahman

Thousands of people poured onto the streets of Dhaka on Thursday as Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman returned to the country after more than 17 years in self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom. Rahman, who is the son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, landed in the capital along with his wife Zubaida Rahman and daughter Zaima Rahman.

Supporters and party leaders marched from the Banani Airport Road towards Dhaka airport to welcome him, turning the stretch into a sea of BNP flags and slogans. Rahman was later escorted in a bulletproof vehicle as part of heightened security arrangements for his high-profile return.

Bulletproof convoy and reception in Purbachal

After arriving at the airport, Rahman was received by senior BNP leaders before heading to a large reception organised in the Purbachal area. Party workers and leaders lined both sides of the road to greet him during the journey. According to party expectations, a very large gathering assembled at the venue, where Rahman was scheduled to address supporters.

BNP leaders said only Rahman would speak at the event, while other senior figures remained present on the stage. His return is being closely watched as he has emerged as a key political figure ahead of Bangladesh’s upcoming general elections.

Visit to ailing mother and family residence

Following the public address, Rahman was expected to visit Evercare Hospital to meet his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, who has been undergoing treatment there for over a month. After the hospital visit, the family was scheduled to go to Firoza, the Zia family residence in Gulshan.

Security across Dhaka was tightened during Rahman’s movement, with police deploying additional forces to prevent any untoward incident amid recent political tensions in the country.

Political backdrop of the return

Rahman’s return comes at a time when the BNP is seen to be gaining political ground following the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in a student-led uprising last year. Surveys conducted in December indicate the BNP could secure the largest number of seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections, while other parties, including Islamist groups, are also in the fray.

Alongside political developments, personal reasons have also played a role in Rahman’s decision to return, particularly his mother’s prolonged illness, which party sources describe as a key factor behind the move.

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Bangladesh student leader killing sparks allegation against Yunus-led interim government over February polls

The killing of Bangladesh student leader Sharif Osman Hadi has led to protests and serious allegations against the Yunus-led interim government over the February national election.

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The killing of Bangladesh student leader Sharif Osman Hadi has triggered sharp political allegations, with his family accusing elements within the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government of attempting to derail the country’s upcoming national election scheduled for February.

Sharif Osman Hadi, spokesperson of Inquilab Moncho — a cultural platform that emerged from the July 2024 uprising — was shot at close range in Dhaka on December 12. He was later airlifted to Singapore for advanced treatment, where he succumbed to his injuries on December 18. His death led to violent protests in parts of the capital, including attacks on offices of newspapers and cultural organisations.

Brother alleges political motive behind killing

At a protest gathering in Shahbagh, Sharif Osman Hadi’s brother, Sharif Omar Hadi, accused a section of the interim government of orchestrating the killing to disrupt the election process.

“You had Osman Hadi killed, and now you are trying to foil the election by using this as an issue,” Omar said while addressing protesters. He claimed that his brother was firm on holding the national election by February and did not align himself with any agency or “foreign masters”.

Omar demanded a swift and transparent trial, warning that delays would damage the election environment. He alleged that the authorities have failed to show any visible progress in the investigation so far.

“If justice for Osman Hadi is not delivered, you too will be compelled to flee Bangladesh one day,” Omar said, drawing an apparent reference to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who left the country following last year’s nationwide protests that resulted in a change of regime.

Claims of wider conspiracy surface

Leaders of Inquilab Moncho also alleged that the killing was part of a broader conspiracy to undermine the gains of the July uprising and weaken Bangladesh’s sovereignty. They claimed that international intelligence agencies and their local collaborators were involved in the murder.

The group demanded that the government identify and present the accused through an investigation meeting international standards within a fixed timeframe. They warned that protests would intensify if their demands were not met.

Protesters said demonstrations would continue until justice is delivered for Sharif Osman Hadi.

Protest plans and political developments

Leaders of Inquilab Moncho announced that they would not hold any programmes on December 25, the day when Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman is scheduled to return to the country. They expressed hope that Rahman would extend solidarity to their movement demanding justice.

The allegations and ongoing protests have added to political tensions in Bangladesh as the interim government faces growing scrutiny ahead of the proposed February election.

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