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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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US lawmakers move resolution to roll back Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports

Three US lawmakers have moved a resolution to end Trump’s emergency declaration that imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, calling the move illegal and harmful to trade ties.

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Three members of the US House of Representatives have introduced a resolution seeking to end former President Donald Trump’s national emergency declaration that led to steep tariffs on imports from India. The lawmakers termed the duties illegal and warned that they have hurt American consumers, workers and long-standing India-US economic ties.

The resolution has been moved by Representatives Deborah Ross, Marc Veasey and Raja Krishnamoorthi. It aims to terminate the emergency powers used to impose import duties that cumulatively raised tariffs on several Indian-origin goods to 50 per cent.

What the resolution seeks to change

According to details shared by media, the proposal specifically seeks to rescind an additional 25 per cent “secondary” tariff imposed on August 27, 2025. This was levied over and above earlier reciprocal tariffs, taking the total duty to 50 per cent under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The House move follows a separate bipartisan effort in the US Senate that targeted similar tariffs imposed on Brazil, signalling growing resistance in Congress to the use of emergency powers for trade actions.

Lawmakers flag impact on US economy and consumers

Congresswoman Deborah Ross highlighted the deep economic links between India and her home state of North Carolina, noting that Indian companies have invested over a billion dollars there, creating thousands of jobs in sectors such as technology and life sciences. She also pointed out that manufacturers from the state export hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of goods to India each year.

Congressman Marc Veasey said the tariffs amount to a tax on American households already facing high costs, stressing that India remains an important cultural, economic and strategic partner for the United States.

Indian-American Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi described the duties as counterproductive, saying they disrupt supply chains, harm American workers and push up prices for consumers. He added that rolling back the tariffs would help strengthen economic and security cooperation between the two countries.

Background of the tariff hike

Earlier in August 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, which came into effect from August 1. This was followed days later by another 25 per cent increase, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The combined duties were justified by the administration as a measure linked to Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine.

Wider push against unilateral trade actions

The latest resolution is part of a broader push by congressional Democrats to challenge unilateral trade measures and reassert Congress’ constitutional authority over trade policy. In October, the same lawmakers, along with several other members of Congress, had urged the President to reverse the tariff decisions and work towards repairing strained bilateral relations with India.

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Mexico imposes 50% tariff on Indian imports, auto exports maybe hit

Mexico’s approval of 50% import duties on select goods from India and other Asian countries threatens nearly $1 billion worth of Indian exports, especially in the automobile sector.

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Mexico has cleared steep import duties of up to 50% on several goods from Asian nations, a move that places nearly $1 billion worth of Indian exports at risk from January 1, 2026. The decision targets countries that do not have a trade agreement with Mexico, including India, South Korea, China, Thailand and Indonesia.

Mexico moves to shield domestic industry

The new duties—covering items such as automobiles, auto parts, textiles, plastics, steel, footwear, furniture, toys, appliances, leather goods, and cosmetics—are aimed at strengthening local manufacturing. Mexico says the tariff push is designed to reduce dependence on Asian imports and support domestic producers.

China stands to face the highest impact, with Mexican imports from the country touching $130 billion in 2024. According to Mexico, the revised tax structure is also expected to generate $3.8 billion in additional revenue.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has backed the decision, framing it as an investment in domestic employment creation. Analysts, however, believe the move may also align with the United States’ expectations ahead of the upcoming United States–Mexico–Canada (USMCA) review.

Impact on India’s automobile exports

The sharpest blow for India will fall on its automobile sector. Imports of passenger cars into Mexico will now face 50% duty instead of the earlier 20%, threatening the competitiveness of major exporters including Volkswagen, Hyundai, Nissan and Maruti Suzuki.

Industry estimates cited in a report say around $1 billion worth of Indian automobile shipments could be affected. Ahead of the tariff announcement, an industry body had urged the Indian government to engage with Mexican authorities to safeguard market access.

Mexico is currently India’s third-largest car export destination, trailing only South Africa and Saudi Arabia.

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Luthra brothers detained in Thailand after Goa nightclub fire tragedy

Delhi restaurateurs Saurabh and Gaurav Luthra, accused in the Goa nightclub fire that killed 25 people, have been detained in Thailand as India moves to secure their deportation.

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Delhi-based restaurateurs Saurabh and Gaurav Luthra, wanted in connection with the Goa nightclub fire that claimed 25 lives, have been detained in Thailand. Images circulating online show the brothers with their hands tied, holding their passports, as they stand beside Thai police officials.

Brothers held in Phuket as India seeks deportation

The Luthra brothers, who run the Romeo Lane chain across multiple cities and countries, left for Phuket just hours after a massive blaze gutted their ‘Birch by Romeo Lane’ nightclub in north Goa’s Arpora. They are facing charges including culpable homicide not amounting to murder and negligence. Indian agencies are now preparing to push for their deportation so they can be tried in Goa.

Deadly fire triggered by flammable decor and safety lapses

The late-night blaze erupted during a musical event attended by around 100 people, most of them tourists. The use of electric firecrackers during a performance is suspected to have triggered the fire. The venue’s heavy use of flammable décor and absence of functional fire extinguishers or alarms turned it into a death trap.

A narrow access road further delayed fire engines, forcing responders to park nearly 400 metres away, significantly hindering rescue operations. By the time the blaze was doused, 25 people — including five tourists and 20 staff members — had died, most due to toxic smoke inhalation in the basement.

Police pursuit and legal battle

Following the incident, four staff members were arrested and a search began for the Luthras. Investigators from Goa and Delhi discovered the brothers had booked their tickets soon after the fire and left the country within hours. Their business partner, Ajay Gupta, has already been arrested in Delhi.

The brothers have moved a Delhi court seeking anticipatory bail, arguing they were licensees, not owners, of the building. They claimed they were not present at the nightclub when the fire occurred and said their travel to Thailand was for a business meeting, not to evade investigation. Their plea seeks four weeks of protection from arrest upon their return to India.

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