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Referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish North Sets Cat Among Pigeons

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masood barzani

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By: Saeed Naqvi

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

All countries are either opposed to the referendum or, like the United States, opposed to the timing of it. Only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stands out in lone splendour, endorsing the referendum. By doing so, he has, of course, let the cat out of the bag. This has added to Iran’s concerns. Tehran says it will seal its Kurdish borders should the referendum take place. The implication is that necessities of daily life, which came from Iran will no longer be available to Iraqi Kurdistan. For a landlocked enclave, this is severe punishment.

It is easy to conclude that the US and Iran are on the same page on the referendum. But this is a wrong impression. For Iran, any suggestion of eventual independence for any of the Kurdish enclaves, is anathema. For the US, the timing of the referendum is inconvenient. It disrupts its script for the region.

New Delhi knows better than anyone else that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan has been US’s pet project ever since its forces entered Iraq, first during operation Desert Storm in February 1992 and finally during the invasion of the country in March-April 2003.

The No Fly Zone imposed on the Kurdish north in 1992 created an autonomous region. This was not without an eye on the future.

It was in 2003-2004 when, President George W. Bush was drooling all over New Delhi, he invited India to take charge of the Kurdish north. Military officials of all ranks, were asked to be ready, to set sail in the largest ships available with the Indian navy. Yes, New Delhi came very close to playing an Imperial role in West Asia as America’s sidekick. It was Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who saw the US not as a great power but a dangerous one for its adventures in West Asia. He scuttled the deal.

Regional circumstances changed but the original blue print for Iraq’s Kurdish north remained dear to US policy makers. But the timing for the referendum is wrong because, at least on the face of it, the US would like to be seen in the lead, fighting the Islamic State.

There is an even graver concern that the referendum might adversely affect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fortunes in the April 2018 General elections. Any reversal for Abadi, a loyal US nominee, will be a gain for Iran. This is a disturbing prospect for Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Trump.

Iranians see the referendum in two ways: should it lead to independence, they will choke Barzani’s enclave by sealing its borders. The Kurdish north constitutes 20 percent of Iraq. If it separates, Shias, who are an overwhelming majority already, will become 85 percent of the population. It will only consolidate the “Shia crescent”.

Iranians are also not afflicted by fear of their Kurds, barely four percent of the total population, tearing away from the main nation because of ethnicity, religion and language. Iranian Kurds, like the rest of Iran are Aryans, a sizable number being Shia. Their language, Pahlavi, is close to modern Persian.

For Turkey, an Iraqi Kurd enclave is a life and death issue. There is oil in Diyarbakir, the principal Kurd city in Turkey; 15 of their power stations are on rivers flowing through the region. But these are not the reasons why Turkish tanks and troops have been amassed on the border with Iraq. The official Kurdish explanation makes sense: the military presence on the border is designed to block a flow of refugees from the Iraqi side should the situation in the province take a violent turn.

Turkey does have a very real fear of refugees because it is already struggling to assimilate over three million refugees from Syria.

The referendum scare is part of the confusion the US has created in the region. Americans entered Iraq with one script but are having to cope with completely unexpected outcomes.

The no-fly-zone made Kurdish-Iraq into a self governing enclave except for Defence and Foreign Affairs which were left to Baghdad. But the fate of important cities like Kirkuk, one of the world’s great oil bearing areas, would be decided later. Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution, written by the Americans, left the fate of cities like Kirkuk to a referendum by “the people of Iraq” not later than 2007.

Obviously Americans imagined they would control Iraq to their advantage by sheer brute power. But this is not the way events turned out. Eventually, in December 2011, the last US solider left. President Obama failed to extract from Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki an honourable status-of-forces agreement. That is why it became unstated US policy to have Maliki replaced by a more “pliable” candidate – Abadi, for example.

When New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asked Obama in the course of an interview in 2015: why did the President not order air-strikes against the Islamic State as soon as it reared its head? Obama’s response was startling: air strikes against IS at a stage when it was advancing towards Baghdad, would have relieved pressure on Maliki. In other words, the IS was an asset for destabilizing Maliki.

Meanwhile, there is total chaos in the north’s (Erbil) financial dealings with Baghdad. Barzani thought of getting out of this chaos by announcing a referendum. In his framework the timing seemed auspicious because the Iraq army would be less energetic is retaliating since it is tired from the recent wars in the north with the IS[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Kremlin denies US media reports on Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting within hours and has indicated he would talk directly with Russian President Putin.

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Kremlin denies US media reports on Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin

The Kremlin today denied a US media report that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US president-elect Donald Trump had spoken on the phone last week about the Ukraine conflict.

Earlier on Sunday, The Washington Post reported that Donald Trump spoke to Vladimir Pution on call, urging him not to inflame the conflict. Speaking on the matter, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the media that the report was completely false information, and denied any phone call took place.

It was reported that US President-elect Donald Trump has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin and urged him not to escalate the war in Ukraine. It said that Donald Trump held the call from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Thursday, just days after his stunning election victory over Democratic rival Kamala Harris. The report also mentioned that both the leaders expressed an interest in further conversations to discuss the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.

Notably, Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting within hours and has indicated he would talk directly with Russian President Putin. However, the US President elect has not said how he intends to strike a peace deal or what terms he is proposing.

Donald Trump’s election is seen as carrying the potential to upend the almost three-year Ukraine conflict, as he insists on a quick end to the fighting and casts doubt on Washington’s multi-billion dollar support for Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Trump on Wednesday, with the Republican’s billionaire backer Elon Musk also notably joining them on the call. Volodymyr Zelensky described the call as excellent, adding that he and Trump had agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation.

Additionally, the outgoing Democratic administration of President Joe Biden has confirmed that it will send as much aid as possible to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the White House aims to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield so that it is ultimately in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.

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India calls out Canada’s move to ban Australia Today for airing S Jaishankar’s press conference

The MEA said that these actions yet again highlight the hypocrisy of Canada towards freedom of speech.

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India calls out Canada’s move to ban Australia Today for airing S Jaishankar's press conference

A few hours after Australia Today aired External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s press conference in Australia, Canada banned the outlet. The External Affairs Minister gave remarks on the India-Canada diplomatic standoff. 

Reacting to this, India on Thursday said it was surprised by Canada’s move to ban the outlet and emphasized that it highlighted Ottawa’s hypocrisy towards freedom of speech. Australia Today, which is an important outlet for the Indian community in the country, had aired the joint press conference of S Jaishankar and his Australian counterpart Penny Wong in Canberra.

In a weekly media briefing, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that they understand that the social media handles, pages of this particular outlet, which is an important diaspora outlet, have been blocked and are not available for viewers in Canada. He continued that this happened just an hour or a few hours after this particular handle carried the press conference of S Jaishankar with Penny Wong. He called out the incident, mentioning that they are surprised, and the matter looks strange to them.

He further underlined that these are the actions which yet again highlight the hypocrisy of Canada towards freedom of speech. He noted that the External Affairs Minister spoke about three things: Canada making allegations and a pattern had developed without any specific evidence, surveillance of Indian diplomats in Canada, which he termed as unacceptable, and  the political space which has been given in Canada to anti-India elements. 

With this one can draw conclusions, why Australia Today channel was blocked by Canada, the spokesperson said. Australia Today focuses on news and analytical pieces related to the Indian community in Australia and elsewhere across the world.

This incident follows days after devotees were attacked by pro-Khalistani at a Hindu temple in Canada’s Brampton, with S Jaishankar calling it deeply concerning. Furthermore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also condemned the attack and said that there were cowardly attempts to intimidate Indian diplomats.

The diplomatic standoff between India and Canada began in September last year when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that Indian government agents might have been involved in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a claim outrightly rejected by New Delhi.

Later in October 2024, ties between both the countries nosedived when Canada termed the Indian High Commissioner a person of interest in its investigation into Nijjar’s murder. Issuing a strongly worded statement, India dismissed the fresh charge and recalled the envoy and some diplomats, while expelling six Canadian officials, including Canada’s acting High Commissioner.

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PM Modi congratulates Donald Trump on winning US President election

The Prime Minister urged Trump to work for the betterment of the people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday congratulated Donald Trump on winning the 2024 US Presidential election and said he is looking forward to renewing their collaboration to further strengthen the India-US partnership.

The Prime Minister urged Trump to work for the betterment of the people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.

“Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” PM Modi posted on his X handle.

With the results being announced for the 2024 US election on November 6, Trump became the 47th President of the United States.

Former US President Trump appeared to be on track for a remarkable political comeback in the White House race. Projections suggested that he was poised to secure the necessary 270 electoral college votes, effectively blocking Democratic candidate Kamala Harris from winning the election.

The relationship between Trump and Modi has been characterised by robust diplomatic ties, strategic collaboration, and a noticeable personal rapport. Their friendship was prominently displayed during major events such as “Howdy, Modi” in Houston in 2019 and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad in 2020, where they addressed large audiences and expressed their mutual respect.

On a strategic level, Trump and Modi found common ground in matters of defense and security, both adopting a strong stance against terrorism, which reinforced their alliance, particularly concerning threats from Pakistan.

As he approaches a notable victory in the US election, Republican Presidential candidate Trump expressed gratitude to his supporters today, calling it a magnificent victory for the American people. He also referenced the assassination attempt on July 13, stating, “God spared my life for a reason.”

The 78-year-old candidate is currently projected to secure 267 electoral college votes, just three shy of the decisive 270, while his opponent, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, holds 224 electoral votes.

Trump described the Republican campaign as the greatest political movement of all time, asserting, “We are going to help our country heal, secure our borders, and we made history for a reason tonight. This is an incredible political victory. I want to thank the American people. I will fight for you and your family with every breath I have.”

He noted that Democrats are now looking at a projected total of 315 electoral votes.

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