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Budget 2026 signals India’s strategy to shield economy from global tariff shocks

Budget 2026 highlights India’s cautious approach to global trade tensions, focusing on defence, infrastructure and strategic self-reliance while sticking to fiscal discipline.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic strategy to protect India from rising global trade tensions became clearer with the presentation of the Union Budget 2026, which focused on strengthening strategic sectors, supporting exporters and maintaining fiscal stability.

The spending plan comes at a time when India faces an uncertain external environment, marked by tariff pressures from the United States and disruptions to global supply chains. The budget announced fresh support for exporters affected by overseas trade barriers and increased backing for critical sectors such as rare earths, semiconductors and critical minerals.

A key highlight of the budget was a significant push towards national security and infrastructure. The government announced an 18% increase in defence expenditure alongside new infrastructure outlays, positioning the move as a safeguard against regional security challenges involving China and Pakistan.

Despite higher spending in select areas, the government largely adhered to its fiscal roadmap. Overall expenditure remained controlled, with no major tax cuts for households and no large-scale stimulus measures. The budget also avoided major populist announcements in a year when the ruling party faces electoral contests in several states.

According to policy analysts, the approach reflects caution amid global uncertainty. The emphasis is on insulating the economy while keeping a close watch on external risks rather than pursuing aggressive expansion.

Market reaction to the budget was muted, with equities declining after the announcement. Investors attributed the fall mainly to a tax increase on equity market transactions aimed at curbing speculation, rather than dissatisfaction with the broader spending plan. The government’s decision to borrow more than expected in the next fiscal year also raised concerns about potential pressure on the bond market.

Setting the tone for the budget speech in Parliament, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted the challenges posed by weakening multilateral trade systems and disruptions in access to resources and supply chains. She stressed the need for India to remain integrated with global markets while boosting exports and attracting long-term investment.

Although not named directly, the budget addressed challenges arising from recent tariff measures imposed by the US, including steep duties affecting labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and furniture. These measures have added pressure on industries dependent on overseas demand.

The government’s response has been to strengthen domestic capabilities. Over the past year, steps have been taken to boost consumption, simplify labour regulations and open up sectors such as nuclear energy and finance to investors. The latest budget builds on that direction by deepening reforms and improving productivity across sectors.

At the same time, India is seeking to diversify its trade relationships. Recent free trade agreements with the European Union, the UK and New Zealand aim to reduce dependence on any single market and provide exporters with greater stability.

Focus on self-reliance and strategic sectors

The budget placed strong emphasis on self-reliance, announcing new initiatives to promote domestic manufacturing in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. It also outlined plans to develop mining, processing and manufacturing capacity for rare earth minerals, particularly in mineral-rich eastern and southern states.

Industry leaders described the initiatives as essential for building a resilient industrial ecosystem capable of withstanding global shocks.

However, questions remain over whether the cautious spending approach will be sufficient to support growth and generate employment for India’s young workforce. While the government has projected growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the coming fiscal year, market estimates are slightly lower.

Opposition leaders criticised the budget for not addressing issues such as youth unemployment and declining household savings. The government, however, appears focused on navigating geopolitical and economic uncertainty while staying committed to fiscal discipline.

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P Chidambaram avoids commenting on Trump’s dead economy remark echoed by Rahul Gandhi

Chidambaram stays silent on Trump’s ‘dead economy’ remark echoed by Rahul Gandhi as Congress critiques Union Budget 2026.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday presented her ninth consecutive union budget, stopping just short of Morarji Desai’s record of ten.

Congress MP P Chidambaram, however, avoided commenting on the ‘India is a dead economy’ statement made by former US President Donald Trump last July, which was later echoed by Rahul Gandhi.

Speaking to reporters after reviewing the budget, Chidambaram said he could not respond as he lacked the full context of Trump’s original remarks.

The comment by Trump followed India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil, which the US had criticized as indirectly funding military action in Ukraine. Trump imposed a 25 per cent penalty tariff on Indian imports and added: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”

Rahul Gandhi later supported the statement, saying, “He is right, everybody knows this except the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. I am glad President Trump stated a fact…”

The remark sparked a political debate, with BJP leaders criticizing Gandhi, while some Congress members, including Rajya Sabha MP Rajiv Shukla, called the statement “completely wrong.”

Ahead of the budget, Gandhi had highlighted the impact of US tariffs on small textile businesses, noting on X: “50 per cent US tariffs are badly hurting textile exporters. Job losses, shutdowns… are reality of our ‘dead economy’.”

The debate gained traction following the budget announcement, which did not offer immediate relief to middle-class taxpayers and saw markets react sharply, with the Sensex closing 1,500 points lower on Sunday.

Chidambaram, as usual, led Congress’ critique of the budget, pointing to a decrease in capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP from 3.2 per cent in FY25 to 3.1 per cent, despite the proposal of Rs 12.2 lakh crore for capex. He added, “Revenue receipts short by Rs 78,086 crore… total expenditure short by Rs 1,00,503 crore… revenue expenditure short by Rs 75,168 crore… capex was cut by Rs 1,44,376 crore… not a word was said to explain this…”

Rahul Gandhi echoed the criticism, highlighting issues such as unemployment, farmers’ distress, declining household savings, and low investment. “A budget that refuses course correction and is blind to India’s real crises,” he said on X.

Responding to the criticism, Finance Minister Sitharaman said, “With due respects, I don’t know what course correction he is referring to. The economy and its fundamentals are strong.”

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Earthquake of 4.6 magnitude hits Andaman and Nicobar Islands

A 4.6 magnitude earthquake struck the Nicobar Islands at 10 km depth, highlighting the region’s seismic activity and potential risks from shallow tremors.

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An earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter scale struck the Andaman and Nicobar Islands early Monday at around 3:30 am, the National Center of Seismology (NCS) reported.

According to the NCS, the tremor occurred at a shallow depth of 10 km. The earthquake’s epicenter was located at a latitude of 9.03° North and a longitude of 92.78° East, placing it in the Nicobar Islands region.

In a post on X, the NCS confirmed the details: “EQ of M: 4.6, On: 02/02/2026 03:31:12 IST, Lat: 9.03 N, Long: 92.78 E, Depth: 10 Km, Location: Nicobar Islands.”

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands fall under Seismic Zone V, according to India’s seismic zoning map (1893-1984), making them one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the world. Historically, the islands have experienced several major earthquakes, including the devastating tremor on December 26, 2004, which caused significant land displacement and triggered tsunami waves, resulting in heavy loss of life and property.

Experts note that shallow earthquakes, like the one recorded on Monday, can be more hazardous than deeper ones. Seismic waves from shallow quakes travel a shorter distance to the surface, causing stronger ground shaking and posing higher risks to structures and human safety.

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Parliament Budget Session 2026 set to begin with Lok Sabha debate on President’s address

The Parliament Budget Session 2026 is set to begin with the Lok Sabha scheduled to debate President Droupadi Murmu’s address for 18 hours.

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The Parliament Budget Session 2026 is set to begin on Monday, with the Lok Sabha scheduled to take up discussions on President Droupadi Murmu’s address, a day after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2026-27 in the House.

The Lok Sabha is scheduled to meet at 11:00 am for a busy day of proceedings. A total of 18 hours has been allocated for the debate on the President’s address, which lays out the government’s policy priorities and broad agenda.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is slated to reply to the discussion on February 4, while Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to respond on February 11.

As per the session calendar, the Budget Session will comprise 30 sittings spread over 65 days and is scheduled to conclude on April 2. Both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha will adjourn for a recess on February 13 and reconvene on March 9. During the recess period, Standing Committees are expected to examine the Demands for Grants of various ministries and departments.

In addition to legislative business, Budget documents tabled in Parliament are set to provide a detailed break-up of government revenues and expenditure, outlining how funds are raised and allocated.

The opening of the Budget Session also comes amid discussions on the government’s economic approach, including measures announced in the Union Budget aimed at supporting key sectors and addressing global trade challenges.

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