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Can Chabahar be a second OBOR gateway?

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NEEDED, SOME PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY: Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President of People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping ahead of the BRICS Summit in Goa, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Gwadar need not be the only port of ingress and egress for the China-initiated transnational road-and-rail network; the India-Iran harbour route can be safer

By Sujit Bhar

Stated positions in international diplomacy change faster than pieces in a rapid chess match.  If frequent geopolitical shifts have to be addressed, they either have to be dealt with counter-moves, or through the opening of an alternative, surreptitious and camouflaged line of attack.

There is no defeat in international diplomacy, till you concede one.

The India-China position vis-à-vis the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative can reach a dead end if India cannot find that alternative route fast. The Chabahar Port route rests in a confused state as of now.

While in April Union minister Nitin Gadkari said work on the port is moving fast and that India has now got a two-year management contract for the port, India’s promise of a $ 500 million investment seems to be on a slippery surface, post problems arising out of Iran’s delaying tactics in awarding gas exploration contract in its Farzad B offshore field to ONGC Videsh. This was one by-product India was looking for within the Chabahar Port deal.

As per published reports, India has decided to reduce oil imports from Iran by three million tonnes, which translates to approximately 25 percent of the oil India imports from Iran. With India sourcing almost six percent of all its oil from that country, India will have to seek an alternative route. With oil prices down, this might not be such a problem, but Iran has not taken kindly to its second-largest customer (after China), cutting back on purchases. It has retaliated by cutting India’s payment schedule from 90 days to 30, as well as cutting back on freight discounts.

If one looks at these as pure business decisions, then there is no problem. Differences arise before they are solved. However, this seems to be connected to India’s political aspirations. Isolating Pakistan isn’t proving to be so easy. If Iran does think joining OBOR would be beneficial for it, a quick change of stance with respect to Pakistan would not be difficult. While India has several running defence deals with Iran, Iran has shown no bad intentions regarding Pakistan.

There is said to be a clause in India’s 16-year-old defence deal with Iran, which reportedly says that India might be given access to Iranian military bases in the event of a war with Pakistan. This, however, has not been openly confirmed by either country, which puts the viability of the deal into unknown territory.

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

Hence Iran’s intentions, as expected, revolve around its own interests. The Chabahar Port will be a value addition for Iran. If the CPEC goes forward, joining Gwadar Port with the overall OBOR system, how much latitude can India gain from the Chabahar port connecting Afghanistan, while staying away from OBOR?

Frankly, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision cannot be wished away by India. India would expect to get a better understanding of the OBOR initiative from the inside and not from a spectator’s perspective. That China has taken the lead in world geopolitics and across the financial world cannot be denied by India. There is little point in being an ostrich in a changing world. There are no stated positions.

India’s stated position about PoK need not change if there is a move towards accepting OBOR as inevitable, and in a partnership offer, one has to take financial options into consideration while dealing with the issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need a face-saver, surely, because the opposition would be screaming murder if India agrees to attend the upcoming OBOR meet. But here is the dig. If OBOR is developed through partnership, and not through the primary dictates of China, there is a possibility that India can press for its own security system for its goods through the disturbed Baloch, PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan regions.

Let this be a practical discussion. Can India, though any international forum, possibly stop Chinese-Pakistani construction in disputed areas for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which happens to be an integral part of OBOR? One guesses not.

And, as China claims, will India’s not attending the OBOR meet completely isolate India? I guess not, too. This will also remain in the region of probability. However, there is a catch. If OBOR is an unqualified success, any late entry effort would not only require cost, but also present a positioning problem for India.

What if India sends an unqualified “yes” signal? Technically, that would mean accepting all existing norms, including, possibly, discussions on the Kashmir issue with a third party, something India has consistently refused to accede to. That would be the end of Modi’s tenure at the top.

What is the midway? Possibly sending a low-powered delegation to the OBOR meet? That would provide representation without accountability, because such a delegation would lack the authority to make decisions. In other words it would result in dragging feet, but India has huge experience in this. Any opportunity unexplored is no opportunity. If India refuses to acknowledge OBOR, its voice on PoK will be rarely heard.

There is a chance of forcing a change from within, and Chabahar is as good an entry and exit point for goods on OBOR as Gwadar. Does that sound like an alternative position? Two things to consider here. Xi has improved relations with Iran several-fold through his visit of the country. OBOR does not need to have just the CPEC route to use. What if it can use both? What if India can place a quick proposal that India’s proposed route can also connect to OBOR?

This is a disruptive thought. Floating it would be difficult, but not impossible. Could we think about this? India has invested in Chabahar and in developing railway lines to the north. OBOR will happen. While the CPEC is fraught with dangers, the India-Iran-Afghanistan route can be safer.

Let’s make the best use of it.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

MK Stalin predicts frequent PM Modi visits to Tamil Nadu before assembly election

MK Stalin has said Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Tamil Nadu more often ahead of the Assembly election, calling the tours politically motivated and questioning the Centre’s support to the state.

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MK Stalin

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will increase his visits to the state as the Assembly election, expected in April or May, draws closer.

Speaking ahead of the polls, the DMK president said the Prime Minister has already begun touring Tamil Nadu and is likely to visit frequently in the coming months. He claimed that such visits could create discomfort within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as alliance partners may fear the political impact of repeated appearances.

Stalin calls visit politically motivated

The Chief Minister described the Prime Minister’s scheduled programmes in the state as “politically motivated”. PM Modi is set to attend various events in Madurai in southern Tamil Nadu, including the inauguration of the first phase of the AIIMS hospital project. He is also expected to visit the Thiruparankundram Temple amid the Karthigai Deepam-related controversy and participate in a public meeting organised by the NDA.

Stalin said he has been working for all sections of the population, including those who did not vote for his party. In contrast, he remarked that some leaders are visible in the state only during election time and increase their visits as polls approach.

Criticism over Union Budget allocations

The DMK leader also criticised the BJP-led central government, accusing it of neglecting Tamil Nadu. He pointed out that while approval was recently granted for the Gujarat Metro project, there were no major announcements or allocations for Tamil Nadu in the Union Budget.

Stalin asserted that voters would remember the lack of significant measures for the state. He framed the upcoming election as a contest between Tamil Nadu and the NDA, stating that the state should be governed from Fort St George in Chennai rather than from Delhi.

The ruling DMK is currently allied with several smaller parties and, at present, the Congress, as it seeks a third consecutive term in office. Its principal rival, the AIADMK, is aligned with the BJP as part of the NDA.

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Shashi Tharoor questions Centre over Kerala name change to Keralam

Shashi Tharoor has criticised the Centre’s decision to approve renaming Kerala as Keralam, questioning its impact and pointing to the lack of major projects for the state.

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shashi tharoor

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has criticised the central government over its decision to approve the renaming of Kerala as ‘Keralam’, arguing that the move prioritises symbolism over development.

Reacting to the Union Cabinet’s approval, Tharoor said that the state’s name has always been ‘Keralam’ in Malayalam and questioned the practical impact of introducing the Malayalam term into English usage.

“It has already been ‘Keralam’ in Malayalam. So now, a Malayalam word is coming into English. I don’t know what difference it makes,” he said, adding that the state has not received major projects such as an AIIMS or new institutions from the Centre. He also pointed out that no significant allocations were made for Kerala in the Union Budget.

In a separate post on X, Tharoor raised what he described as a “small linguistic question” about what residents of the state would be called if the name change is implemented. Referring to existing terms such as “Keralite” and “Keralan”, he remarked that alternatives like “Keralamite” sounded like a microbe and “Keralamian” like a rare earth mineral.

The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cleared the proposal on Tuesday. The move comes ahead of the upcoming state Assembly elections, in which 140 members of the legislative assembly are to be elected. The poll schedule is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India.

The state assembly had earlier passed a resolution seeking the change in official records. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had moved the resolution in 2024, urging the Union government to adopt the name ‘Keralam’ in all languages listed in the Eighth Schedule of the Constitution.

He had stated that the demand for a united Kerala for Malayalam-speaking people dates back to the national freedom movement.

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Tamil Nadu potboiler: Now, Sasikala to launch new party ahead of election

Sasikala has announced the launch of a new political party ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, positioning herself against AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami.

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In a significant political development ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, expelled AIADMK leader V. K. Sasikala has announced that she will float a new political party and contest the polls by fielding her own candidates.

Speaking in Madurai before heading to Pasumpon for a public event, Sasikala said she would unveil her party’s flag later in the evening. She indicated that more details regarding the party’s structure and plans would be shared at the gathering.

The event venue carries political symbolism. Pasumpon is the birthplace of Thevar leader Muthuramalinga Thevar, and Sasikala herself belongs to the influential Thevar community in southern Tamil Nadu. The programme was held as part of birth anniversary events of former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa.

Direct challenge to EPS

Sasikala’s move is being viewed as a direct political challenge to AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS). After Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016, Sasikala briefly took control of the party and had appointed Palaniswami as Chief Minister. However, following her conviction in the disproportionate assets case, she served a four-year prison term, and during that period, she was expelled from the party.

Palaniswami later aligned with O. Panneerselvam, whom Sasikala had earlier removed from the Chief Minister’s post. The two leaders subsequently adopted a dual leadership arrangement within the party and government.

Sasikala remains disqualified from contesting elections until 2027 due to her conviction. Nevertheless, she has stated that she intends to field candidates under her new party banner.

Fragmented Thevar vote base

Over the years, expulsions within the AIADMK — including Sasikala, her nephew TTV Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam — have led to divisions within the Thevar support base. Political observers have linked this fragmentation to the party’s weakened electoral performance in the elections following Jayalalithaa’s passing.

While Dhinakaran has returned to the NDA fold, reports suggest Palaniswami is opposed to any arrangement that includes Sasikala or Panneerselvam. OPS, meanwhile, has exited the NDA.

Sasikala has repeatedly criticised Palaniswami, describing him as a betrayer, while he maintains that his leadership stems from the support of AIADMK legislators rather than her backing.

The AIADMK has not issued an official statement on Sasikala’s announcement. However, a senior party leader questioned her political standing, pointing out her disqualification from contesting elections and referring to legal issues linked to Jayalalithaa’s death.

With the Assembly polls approaching, Sasikala’s re-entry into active politics could further complicate the opposition space in Tamil Nadu and influence electoral calculations, particularly in the southern districts.

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