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BJP remains the undisputed dominant party, but can the Congress become a credible challenger now

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]~By Rajesh Sinha

The BJP emerged victorious in assembly polls, reaffirming its status as the dominant party in the country. Many, however, also see a revival of sorts for the Congress which managed to put up a tough fight in BJP bastion, the ‘Hindutva laboratory’ and home state of its top two leaders Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah. Also noticed was the coming into his own of Rahul Gandhi, newly elevated as Congress chief.

The question is, will the Congress under Rahul Gandhi be able to fight back and emerge as a credible challenger to Modi-Shah-led BJP? Together with other Sangh parivar affiliates, BJP under Modi-Shah duo determines not just the agenda for governance but also the society, either of the two aspects taking centre stage as per the situation.

Now that the assembly election results are out, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is once again talking about ‘vikas’ and how the BJP owes its victory to it. The theme was conspicuous by its absence during the shrill election campaign that he led from the front and seems aimed more at keeping the faith of voters in his projected image of a man who delivers – failures notwithstanding.

That is what the BJP owes its victory to – voters’ faith in Modi, his personal appeal. They were unwilling to desert him even after the blow dealt by inept implementation of demonetisation and the GST, and it was he that the electoral battle was turned into, especially during the campaign in the second phase. It was not about development – ‘vikas’ – but more about ‘insult’ to ‘Gujarat ka beta’ (Gujarat’s son) in the ‘neech’ comment of Mani Shankar Aiyar and the bizarre charge of Congress being hand-in-glove with Pakistan which wanted Ahmed Patel as Gujarat chief minister.

This was after the first phase in which the Congress significantly improved its previous tally and the BJP leadership was defensively avoiding answers to charges of scam in Rafale deal or BJP chief Amit Shah’s son’s controversial business deals, or development (‘vikas’) gone crazy. In Saurashtra, Congress won 28 seats as compared to 15 in the 2012 election.

In the end, the BJP did manage to save the day and improved its vote share marginally – from 47.85 per cent of total votes polled (48.30 of total in seats it contested) to 49.1 per cent. So did the Congress – from 38.93 per cent of total votes polled (40.59 per cent of total in the seats it contested) to 41.4 per cent. But Congress improved its seats by 16 and the BJP lost as many. In fact, the BJP tally came down to double digits for the first time since 1995.

Also, in at least 15 seats, BJP candidates’ margin of victory was less than 3,000 votes. In many, the number of votes polled by independents and ‘None Of The Above’ (NOTA) was bigger than the margin of victory.

As reported by APN yesterday (Monday, Dec 18), the Congress appears to have obtained a good support in rural areas while the urban and semi urban voters preferred the BJP. Of the 73 urban clusters, BJP led in 55 and, out of 109 seats in rural areas, the Congress was ahead in 62. Modi’s ‘vikas’ seems to have bypassed rural areas.

As for the way ahead, there are a series of battles lined up. Assembly elections are scheduled in eight states – Meghalaya, Karnataka, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – next year (2018). After that will follow the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

Both parties would need to work on their strengths and remove weaknesses. The task is easier for the more organised BJP, with its leaders already talking about getting to work for the next election. For Lok Sabha, the ‘Mission 2019’ is already on. As far agenda is concerned, the BJP is accustomed to dictating it, leaving the Congress to react to it. That it is mostly aimed at polarisation is another matter – even in 2014, when the people were sick of scams and ready to get rid of Congress, this element was very much there even though Modi himself was talking vikas then.

And, after the present assembly poll results were declared, the charge made against Congress by BJP leaders – of polarising society along caste lines – is also because it undermines the other polarisation BJP and Modi worked to promote. That is a card BJP always has.

For the Congress, it is still a long road. Taking its strengths, its defeat in Gujarat, home state of both PM Modi and Amit Shah and BJP’s original laboratory of Hindutva, has not been disheartening for the Congress as it managed to make gains and improve its tally significantly. Some analysts even called it a ‘revival’ of Congress and the death of the ‘TINA’ (There Is No Alternative) factor in Indian politics.

In estimating Congress performance, while BJP has made much about its defeat despite the most favourable circumstances, one also has to take note of the fact that the party, whose organisation was in shambles and had suffered the jolt of its top leader Shankersinh Vaghela quitting the party with 14 MLAs just a few months ago, still managed to put up a serious fight and had the BJP rattled. It was because of this that the BJP government in the state used the extra time it got due to delayed poll dates to give out a number of sops and Modi inaugurating a spate of projects, from ferry service to parking lots.

Another positive for Congress is that its new top leader Rahul Gandhi is no longer seen as a liability. He is now taken more seriously and is not being referred to as ‘Pappu’ anymore. He has to build on this, consolidate his leadership and give direction to the party – ideological and programmatic. The positive for Congress in its defeat is that it would perhaps not become complacent. The organisation has to be built and party units set up: the BJP has done it from booth level upwards.

Most importantly, the Congress has to take care of an aspect directly linked to the ideological aspect and program. The push it got from movements led by Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, OBC leader Alpesh Thakur and Patidar agitation leader Hardik Patel would need to be looked into and the inherent lesson learnt and marshalled. It is not enough to opportunistically try to capitalise on the prevailing mood, or seek gains by appeasing the vocal section of society or a community. The party needs to define its stance in keeping with the progressive, democratic, secular principles it claims to adhere to. This stance should determine its response in various cases. The party needs to provide direction to society and show it a way, rather than being swayed and buffeted about its currents. The significance of having a vision for the kind of society needs to be understood, for it is as important in a developing (if not actually ‘backward’) society as a program for governance. This is one feature that has been missing in Congress plans and functioning, while the BJP has an active ‘Hindutva’ program. Even the regional parties that have come up have had a social agenda at their foundation.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Cried over Gaza, not a word on Bangladesh: Yogi Adityanath attacks opposition in UP Assembly

Yogi Adityanath criticised the opposition in the UP Assembly, accusing them of selective outrage over Gaza while remaining silent on violence against Hindus in Bangladesh.

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Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Wednesday launched a sharp attack on the Opposition during proceedings in the State Assembly, accusing rival parties of indulging in selective outrage and appeasement politics while remaining silent on incidents involving Hindus in neighbouring countries, particularly Bangladesh.

Referring to recent incidents across the border, the Chief Minister said the Opposition raises its voice on international issues selectively but avoids speaking out when minorities, especially Hindus, are targeted in nearby nations.

“You shed tears over developments in Gaza, but not a single word comes out when a Dalit youth is killed in Bangladesh,” Adityanath said in the Assembly, alleging that such silence exposes the Opposition’s political priorities.

The Chief Minister further claimed that incidents of violence against Hindus would not have occurred had Pakistan and Bangladesh not been created, reiterating that issues are often viewed through the prism of vote bank politics. He said candle marches are organised for global events, but killings of Hindus in Pakistan or Bangladesh do not evoke similar responses.

Adityanath also called for a condemnation resolution in the Assembly, stating that it should ideally come from the Leader of the Opposition. He said such a resolution should clearly condemn the killing and convey a warning to the Bangladesh government.

Allegations over illegal immigration

Targeting the Opposition on the issue of illegal immigration, the Chief Minister alleged that they support Bangladeshi nationals and Rohingyas. He claimed that when authorities take action to expel illegal immigrants, Opposition leaders come out in their defence, alleging that many of them have been facilitated with voter registrations and Aadhaar cards.

Meanwhile, tensions between India and Bangladesh have been visible following recent developments. India summoned the Bangladesh High Commissioner for the second time in a week amid concerns arising from incidents in the neighbouring country.

The summons came in the backdrop of protests in Bangladesh following the killing of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi and the lynching of Dipu Chandra Das in separate incidents. Dipu Das, a 27-year-old youth from Mymensingh district, was beaten to death by a mob over alleged blasphemy on December 18, and his body was later set on fire, triggering widespread outrage.

The Interim Government of Bangladesh condemned the incident. Education Adviser C R Abrar visited the bereaved family on behalf of the government, expressed condolences, and assured them of financial and welfare assistance. The Office of the Chief Adviser also reiterated its resolve to protect all citizens and ensure justice in the case.

The killing has once again raised concerns at the international level over the safety and security of minorities in Bangladesh, with minority groups demanding strict action against those responsible.

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Jammu and Kashmir High Court rejects Mehbooba Mufti’s plea on undertrial prisoners, calls it politically motivated

The Jammu and Kashmir High Court has rejected Mehbooba Mufti’s PIL on undertrial prisoners, stating it was politically motivated and lacked factual basis.

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The Jammu and Kashmir High Court has dismissed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) filed by People’s Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti seeking the transfer of undertrial prisoners lodged in jails outside the Union Territory back to prisons within Jammu and Kashmir. The court termed the petition politically motivated, vague and unsupported by facts, observing that it was an attempt to derive political mileage rather than address a genuine public cause.

A bench headed by Chief Justice Arun Palli and Justice Rajnesh Oswal made it clear that public interest litigation cannot be used as a tool to advance political agendas or convert courts into platforms for electoral positioning.

Court says PIL cannot become a political platform

In its observations, the High Court said the plea appeared aimed at projecting the petitioner as a champion of justice for a specific section, rather than raising substantiated legal concerns. The bench underlined that while political parties are free to engage with voters through democratic means, the judiciary must remain insulated from political campaigns.

The court reiterated that PIL jurisdiction is meant to safeguard public interest and not to be misused for electoral gain or political leverage. It cautioned against attempts to draw the judiciary into political narratives.

Undertrials have legal remedies, says court

In the 15-page order passed on Tuesday, the High Court noted that the undertrial prisoners mentioned in the petition are already facing trial before competent courts. According to the bench, adequate judicial remedies are available to such undertrials to raise grievances related to their detention or place of incarceration.

The court further observed that the failure of the concerned undertrials to approach courts on their own indicated that they may not be genuinely aggrieved by their confinement in prisons outside the Union Territory.

No locus standi, petition dismissed

Dismissing the plea, the High Court held that Mehbooba Mufti was a third-party stranger to the cause and therefore lacked the locus standi to invoke the court’s jurisdiction in this matter. The petition was described as misconceived and was rejected accordingly.

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BJP raises seat offer to Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena to nearly 90 ahead of Mumbai civic polls, talks continue

The BJP has raised its seat offer to Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena to nearly 90 for the upcoming BMC elections, but fresh talks are needed as differences persist within the Mahayuti.

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With the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections drawing closer, the seat-sharing tussle within the Mahayuti alliance continues, with the BJP increasing its offer to Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena but failing to reach the party’s expectations.

According to sources, the BJP has now proposed close to 90 seats for the Shinde faction in the upcoming Mumbai civic polls. This is a significant jump from its earlier offer of 52 seats but still falls short of what Shinde is seeking. The Shiv Sena leader has reportedly reduced his demand from an initial 125 seats to 112, yet remains dissatisfied with the latest formula.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is expected to hold another round of discussions with Shinde to break the deadlock. Sources indicate that the BJP is unlikely to stretch its offer much further, especially after its strong showing in recent statewide local body elections.

BJP firm after strong local poll performance

The BJP has emerged as the single largest party in the recent local polls, securing 117 municipal president posts. In comparison, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena won 53 posts, while Ajit Pawar’s faction of the NCP secured 37. These results have strengthened the BJP’s negotiating position ahead of the BMC elections.

However, the current seat-sharing calculations could change if Ajit Pawar decides to contest the Mumbai civic polls as part of the alliance. Senior NCP leader Sunil Tatkare confirmed that no final decision has been taken yet, noting that discussions with alliance partners are ongoing.

Nawab Malik factor complicates alliance talks

A major point of contention within the Mahayuti is the issue of senior NCP leader Nawab Malik, who is facing multiple corruption cases, including a money laundering case linked to underworld activities. While the alliance has made it clear that Malik is unacceptable as part of its Mumbai setup, Ajit Pawar is reportedly firm on backing him.

Mumbai BJP chief Ameet Satam has publicly stated that the party would not align with any group that includes Malik. Sources added that if the NCP joins the alliance in Mumbai, it may be asked to project a different leader and contest a limited number of seats.

BMC elections timeline

The countdown to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections has already begun, with less than a month left for polling. Voting is scheduled for January 15, with counting set to take place the following day. A total of 2,869 municipal seats will be contested, including 227 seats in the BMC.

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