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Endgame for Nitish Kumar: as JD(U) tries to raise stakes, will it be game over as well?

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Endgame for Nitish Kumar: as JD(U) tries to raise stakes, will it be game over as well?

Ahead of the meeting of leaders of NDA constituents on June 7 in the wake of recent polls reverses and discordant noises from within the coalition, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) seems to have decided to push its luck and try to extract something more than what was likely.

All said and done, the Bihar chief minister is in a fix. His image as an able administrator – ‘Sushasan Babu’ – has been eroded because of poor law and order, hate crimes and communal clashes in which leaders of his alliance partner BJP have been involved. It has also cost him the support he had among Muslims and his political base has been eroded. Nitish Kumar anyway lacks a sufficiently large, core, solid support base like Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) or BJP.

The BJP treats him like a junior partner, its central leadership has snubbed him on several occasions and the Modi government has paid no heed to some of his key demands.

His waning influence and support base was driven home by the losses in bypolls. Kumar’s party has lost 2 recent assembly bypolls, while BJP has won 1 and lost the Araria Lok Sabha bypoll.

It is a critical phase in Nitish Kumar’s political career. Kumar is weighing his options, and there aren’t many.

He cannot part ways with BJP if he has to stay in power in Bihar and the BJP knows he has nowhere left to go after he ditched the grand alliance with RJD and Congress to ally with BJP once again to hang on as CM.

Nitish Kumar has reportedly tried reaching out to Congress but the response was lukewarm at best. In any case, it is Congress’ ally Lalu Prasad-led RJD that calls the shots in Bihar, not Congress. If they consider taking JD(U) on board at all, it would be after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

JD(U)’s problems with BJP

There is growing angst within the JD(U). Signals of JD(U) trying to assert itself follow some earlier statements (in March, after losing Jahanabad bypoll) from the Bihar chief minister.

Nitish Kumar has earlier expressed unhappiness at ‘communal’ politics as BJP pushed its Hindutva agenda. He has revived the demand for special status for Bihar and has also been heard speaking against Assam’s Citizenship Bill and Modi government’s demonetisation move. He had lauded demonetisation earlier.

Resentment against BJP has been brewing in JD(U) for some time, according to several media reports. At the core lies the assertiveness of BJP which is treating it as a junior partner of little value, despite having fewer seats in the state assembly: the BJP had won 53 seats in assembly polls and the JD(U) 71, the tally having gone down after reverses in bypolls.

Unlike previous terms, this time when, increasingly uncomfortable with Lau Prasad-led RJD’s antics, Nitish Kumar deserted the grand alliance to ally with BJP, the latter – with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as its sole icon and BJP president Amit Shah intent on expanding the party and pushing its agenda – started working towards expanding BJP’s base and reduce if not eliminate dependence on support of allies: without the support of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U).

After joining Nitish-led government, this was undertaken aggressively. Pushing the saffron agenda through moves like establishing a ‘Rama circuit’ that includes sites associated with Sita, increasing number of RSS ‘shakhas’, trying communal polarisation, taking out aggressive Ram Navami processions with sword-wielding zealots who provoked riots across eight districts, all are part of this plan.

There are also attempts to ‘militarise’ campuses besides appointing people owing allegiance to RSS as vice chancellors in universities, said a report in the Asia Times.

Snub to Nitish Kumar

On top of this, CM Nitish Kumar was also snubbed on a few occasions, effectively conveying to him his diminished status and importance. One was the demand for special status to Bihar. As in the case of Telugu Desam’s demand for such status to Andhra Pradesh, the Centre paid no heed to this. The TDP walked out of NDA over this: it could, the JD(U) couldn’t if it wanted to stay in power. That hurt.

When Bihar was ravaged by floods, PM Modi came, toured and promised a quick relief of Rs 500 crore with more to follow. The state government later demanded Rs 7,636 crore for flood relief package. The Centre, however, sanctioned only Rs 1,700 crore, which included the Rs 500 crore promised by the prime minister.

The PM also ignored pleas from Bihar CM to accord central university status to Patna University. Nitish Kumar made the request in public. The PM’s silence was thus a snub delivered publicly.

JD(U)’s attempt at asserting itself

When the BJP — and its allies including JD(U) — lost big in bypolls across 10 states, including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, some NDA allies started having second thoughts about staying on in the alliance (and one – Shiv Sena – has broken off already, although it remains with NDA at the Centre). Some NDA constituents raised voices against BJP and asked it not be have a cavalier attitude towards allies. JD(U) leaders now felt it was time for their party to assert itself.

They also started speaking out. JD(U) spokesperson KC Tyagi told India Today that NDA allies are feeling isolated and a united strategy is needed to win the 2019 general elections.

“UP results are alarming, coming together of two big regional parties of the state, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, and western UP’s influential party RLD, is a big challenge, there is a need to bring changes in demeanour and work to expand our mass base especially with the farmers,” said KC Tyagi.

Talking about the lessons from the opposition parties’ gains in the bypolls, Tyagi said, “Naidu has left, Shiv Sena is fighting against BJP in Palghar, Akali Dal is unhappy, Indian National Lok Dal our old ally also left us, Mehbooba Mufti’s concerns are not taken seriously, it’s our suggestion that there should be effective campaign with those left in the NDA to make 2019 victory possible.”

After talking about need to be more accommodative towards allies, the JD(U) leader asserted the importance of his party for BJP. “Some people are propagating that JD(U) brings no value to the alliance. They should just recall that in 2005, it was because of the JD(U) that the BJP’s seats went up from 37 to 55. In 2010, it went up to 91,” said Tyagi. “When Nitish broke away, their seat tally plunged to 53.”

Two JD(U) general sectetaries, KC Tyagi and Pawan Verma, declared that Nitish Kumar should be the face of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar in 2019 elections because of his popularity.

“Nitish Kumar is the face of the NDA in Bihar, that is why he is the chief minister. JDU is the largest constituent of the coalition,” JDU national general secretary Pavan Varma said after a meeting of top leaders at the chief minister’s home in Patna.

“Our concern is to get the maximum mileage and full dividends out of his [Kumar’s] image for the NDA,” said Tyagi.

Pavan K Varma, said the BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) will have to approach the Lok Sabha polls under Kumar’s leadership.

The JD(U) also wants to press for a seat arrangement to be worked out now, in advance, for 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It wants the old, 2009 arrangement of seat sharing when it got 25 seats and the BJP 15.

BJP response

The BJP downplayed the comments, insisting there is no dispute. “Jab dil mil gaye (When hearts have connected), seats are no big deal. Who will contest how many seats in elections, all this will be decide after we sit together for our meeting,” senior Bihar BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi said.

Reports said BJP leaders, conceding talks were on for seat adjustments, said Nitish Kumar’s statements signifying differences with BJP on issues (backtracking from his support to demonetisation, demand for special category status for Bihar) were basically aimed at positioning before hard bargaining.

JD(U) leaders’ statements voicing these sentiments denote an ambition without ability to achieve it. The BJP fights elections projecting Prime Minister Narendra Modi even in state assembly elections. There is little chance of it going to Lok Sabha polls projecting another alongside.

Even if they agree to posters displaying Nitish’s face, the BJP is highly unlikely to meet JD(U)’s demand for 25 seats. After JD(U) split with BJP before 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 22 seats . The JD(U) got only two. Hardly any political party, much less a BJP with a give-no-quarter president like Amit Shah, would agree to fewer seats than what it had won.

Options before Nitish

The JD(U) was also trying to join hands with LJP and RLSP to drive a better bargain with BJP. RLSP, led by Upendra Kushwaha, has openly demanded that seat distribution be done now rather than later.

Some JD(U) leaders say Nitish might perform another flip-flop and pull out of the NDA again, and then form or join a third front.

Some reports say that Kumar, like Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray, has decided to go solo and the announcement of both the breakups will be made on Vijay Dashmi.

About Nitish Kumar, Manoj Jha, RJD spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP, was reported to have said some days ago: “Usually in a democracy, the voters write a leader’s political obituary. But Nitish Kumar has written his political obituary all by himself. Today it is BJP vs RJD in Bihar; his party is nowhere in the picture.”

India News

Delhi LG VK Saxena directs probe into remarks against Kangana Ranaut by Congress leader Supriya Shrinate

The Delhi Police will investigate who was behind the said social media post and whose mobile phone was used for the purpose.

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Delhi lieutenant governor Vinai Kumar Saxena today sought a detailed probe from Delhi Police commissioner Sanjay Arora in relation with the alleged defamatory social media post made by Congress’s Supriya Shrinate against actor-turned-politician Kangana Ranaut.

Reportedly, BJP candidate from New Delhi Bansuri Swaraj had given a complaint to the LG seeking probe and registration of an FIR against Shrinate for outraging the modesty of a woman. Subsequently, the Delhi LG has forwarded the complaint to the Delhi Police Commissioner, directing a scientific investigation in the matter and initiation of legal action, if necessary.

Reports said that the Delhi Police will also investigate who was behind the said social media post and whose mobile phone was used for the purpose. A major controversy erupted on Monday after an objectionable post from Supriya Shrinate’s social media handle against Kangana Ranaut, who has been announced as the BJP candidate from Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi.

Responding to the remarks, Kangana Ranaut said that they must free the daughters from the shackles of prejudices and must rise above the curiosity about their body parts. She added that people must refrain from using sex workers’ challenging lives or circumstances as some kind of abuse or slur. She concluded that every woman deserves her dignity. As the controversy intensified, the Congress leader asserted that someone else had posted the objectionable content from her handle. 

Meanwhile, the Election Commission on Wednesday issued a show cause notice to Congress leader Supriya Shrinate for her derogatory remarks against Kangana Ranaut. The Election Commission observed that the remarks are undignified and in a bad taste. The election body asked the Congress leader to respond to the commission by Friday. In the notice, the Election Commission stated that the statements made by the leader is prima facie violative of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) being in force ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. 

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India News

Bollywood actor Govinda joins Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena

Govinda on his official induction in the party by CM Eknath Shinde said he is joining Shiv Sena and it is a blessing from God. He said he thought he would not enter politics again. Govinda said Mumbai looks cleaner and better now.

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Bollywood actor Govinda joined Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena on Thursday ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. In 2004 Govinda contested from Mumbai North Lok Sabha on a Congress ticket and earned the nickname of a giant slayer as he defeated BJP’s Ram Naik. He resigned from the party and said that he had decided to take a break from politics.

Govinda on his official induction in the party by CM Eknath Shinde said he is joining Shiv Sena and it is a blessing from God. He said he thought he would not enter politics again. Govinda said Mumbai looks cleaner and better now. He said his parents had a good relationship with Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray.

Shiv Sena leader Krishna Hedge met the Bollywood actor at his residence in Juhu. Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde said the actor’s joining the Shiv Sena does not come with a rider. Govinda said whatever work is assigned to him, he will do it to the best of the ability. He said he was a part of the 14th Lok Sabha and has returned to politics after 14 years.

Speaking about his role in politics, the actor said he would transform the film city of Mumbai. He did not reply when he was asked about contesting elections. Govinda said everybody has seen the same level of progress in Maharashtra in the last 2 years, as it has been seen in the country in the last 10 years. He said he is going to focus on the beautification of the state and work towards the growth of art and culture.

Rajya Sabha MP Milind Deora welcomed Govida into the party and said he has known the veteran Bollywood actor for almost 25 years. He recalled the 2004 election and said both of them had fought elections together.

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India News

Delhi Court extends ED custody of CM Arvind Kejriwal till April 1

CM Kejriwal made a submission in front of the court, where he said that in the 31,000 page document prepared by the ED, there is no concrete proof or allegations against him on the basis of which he has been arrested.

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The Delhi Rouse Avenue Court on Thursday has extended the Enforcement Directorate (ED) remand of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal till April 1. The Chief Minister will remain in custody till Monday, after which he will be presented in front of the court bench for further proceedings in the case.

The court has passed its order for the extension of the remand in the money laundering case related to the Delhi excise policy, being investigated by the ED for the last two years. Arvind Kejriwal is the fourth Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader to be arrested in this case. Previously, Satyendar Jain, Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh were arrested in the same case. 

During the hearing today, the ED argued that Arvind Kejriwal needs to be brought face to face with some of the accused in the excise policy case. The ED further said that the data in one of the mobile phones, belonging to Arvind Kejriwal’s wife Sunita, was extracted and is being analyzed.

Nonetheless, data from the other 4 digital devices seized during search at Arvind Kejriwal’s premises on March 21 are yet to be extracted as the arrestee has sought time to provide password/login credentials after consulting with his lawyers.

In its fresh remand plea, the investigation agency said that during Arvind Kejriwal’s custodial interrogation, his statements were recorded on five days and that he was giving evasive replies. It further said the statements of three other persons have also been recorded during the remand.

CM Kejriwal made a submission in front of the court on Thursday, where he said that in the 31,000 page document prepared by the ED, there is no concrete proof or allegations against him on the basis of which he has been arrested.

Meanwhile, Arvind Kejriwal’s wife Sunita Kejriwal said on March 28 that the AAP national convener is not keeping well and is being harassed a lot while in ED custody over the past week. She asserted that the Chief Minister is being harassed a lot and his sugar levels are fluctuating.

CM Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by the ED on March 21 and was sent to 7-days of custody. His arrest has triggered protests in the national capital and the nearby northern state of Punjab, which is also governed by AAP, over the last few days.

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