At the all party meeting held ahead of the Parliament Winter Session, the opposition sought discussion on the ethics committee’s report on Trinamool MP Mahua Moitra. With the government urging the opposition to ensure a conducive environment for discussion in the House, the impending expulsion of Trinamool Congress (TMC) member Mahua Moitra from the Lok Sabha, three bills to replace criminal laws and a proposed law for the appointment of election commissioners are issues set to dominate the session.

The Lok Sabha Ethics Committee report recommending the expulsion of MP Mahua Moitra from the Lower House over a cash-for-query complaint is also listed for tabling in the House on Monday, the first day of the session. During the all-party meeting on Saturday, Trinamool leaders demanded a discussion in the Lok Sabha on the Ethics Committee report, before any decision is taken to expel Moitra from the House.

Congress leader Pramod Tewari said the Opposition also insisted on a discussion in Parliament on issues such as the situation in Manipur, rising inflation, misuse of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the imposition of Hindi through the names of laws, particularly in reference to the three bills to replace criminal laws.

The Central government has listed 19 bills and two financial agenda items for the Winter Session of Parliament. Meanwhile, the Assembly elections results in four states namely Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana are also expected to have a bearing on the Winter Session of Parliament that commences on December 4 and will continue till December 22.

On Sunday, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh presided over a meeting of floor leaders of political parties. The meeting was attended by Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi, Congress leaders Jairam Ramesh, Gaurav Gogoi and Pramod Tewari, TMC leaders Sudip Bandyopadhyay and Derek O’Brien and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Fouzia Khan, among others.

By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

The assembly elections for five states concluded today after Telangana voted to elect 119 members of the state legislative assembly. The result of the exit polls has been announced. The counting of the votes for all the five states namely Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan will take place on December 3. 

The exit polls predicted Congress win in Chhattisgarh. If the Congress reclaims its power in the state it will be a major boost to the party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Exit poll of ABP News- C Voter showed BJP with 36-48 seats, Congress with 41-53 seats. As per India Today- Axis My India, BJP gained 36-46 seats with Congress winning in 40-50 seats. Jan Ki Baat predicted 34-45 seats for BJP and 42-53 for Congress. News 24- Today’s Chanakya showed 33 seats for BJP and 57 seats for Congress. TV9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat and Republic TV- Matrize showed 35-45 and 34-42 for BJP, while 40-50 and 44-52 for Congress respectively. The two-phase assembly election in the state took place on November 7 and November 17. To win the assembly election in the state, the political party must win 46 seats. 

In Rajasthan, the exit polls predicted that Ashok Gehlot might lose power as BJP is gaining majority seats in the state. Notably, a political party needs to win 100 seats in order to win the assembly election in the northern state. Dainik Bhaskar gave BJP 98-105 seats, Congress around 85-95 seats. Jan Ki Baat predicted 100-122 seats for BJP and 62-85 seats for Congress. India Today- Axis My India showed 80-100 seats for BJP and 86-106 for Congress. TV9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat gave 100-110 seats for BJP and 90-100 seats for Congress. Times Now-ETG predicted 108-128 seats for BJP, while 56-72 for Congress. Rajasthan conducted a single-phase assembly election on November 25.

According to multiple exit polls, Madhya Pradesh might witness a tough fight between BJP and Congress. To win the assembly election in the state, a political party has to win 116 seats. Dainik Bhaskar predicted 95-115 seats for BJP and gave Congress 105-120 seats. Jan ki Baat predicted 100-123 seats for BJP and 102-125 seats for Congress. Republic TV- Matrize predicted 118-130 seats for BJP and 97-107 seats for Congress. TV9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat showed 106-116 seats for BJP and 111-121 seats for the Congress. Madhya Pradesh assembly election was carried out on November 17. 

Congress might win in Telangana, where the assembly election was conducted today. As per India TV- CNX, BRS will claim 31-47 seats, 63-79 Congress, 2-4 BJP and 5-7 AIMIM. Jan ki Baat predicted 40-55 seats for BRS, 48-64 seats for Congress, 7-13 seats for BJP and AIMIM 4-7 seats. Republic TV- Matrize showed 46-56 seats for BRS, 58-68 seats for Congress, 4-9, 5-7 seats for BJP and AIMIN respectively. TV9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat predicted 48-58 seats for BRS, 49-59 Congress, 5-10 BJP and 6-8 AIMIM. To win the Telangana assembly election, a political party has to win 60 seats in the state legislative assembly. 

In Mizoram, MNF and ZPM witnessed a tight battle in winning the assembly election with 21 seats. ABP News-C Voter predicted 15-21 seats for MNF, 12-18 seats for ZPM, 2-8 seats for Congress. India TV- CNX showed 14-18 seats for MNF, 12-16 seats for ZPM, 8-10 for Congress and 0-2 for BJP. Jan Ki Baat predicted 10-14 seats for MNF, 15-25 seats for ZPM, 5-9 seats for Congress and 0-2 for BJP. Republic TV- Matrize showed 17-22 seats for MNF, 7-12 seats for ZPM, 7-10 seats for Congress and 1-2 for BJP. Times Now-ETG predicted 14-18 seats for MNF, 10-14 seats for ZPM, 9-13 seats for Congress and 0-2 seats for BJP. Mizoram was the first state to go into assembly election on November 7.

In short, according to the exit polls, the BJP is set to defeat the Congress and return to power in Rajasthan, a state that has voted out the ruling party in elections for the last three decades. In BRS ruled Telangana, the Congress appears to be surging ahead as the exit polls indicate a clear lead over BRS.  As per exit polls, Congress might retain power in Chhattisgarh giving the party a major boost ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is looking for his fifth term with Congress giving a tough competition to the party. Meanwhile, the exit polls have shown no clear winner in the Mizoram Assembly election.