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India overtakes Japan, set to challenge Germany for third-largest economy

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is on track to challenge Germany for the third spot within the next three years.

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India overtakes Japan, set to challenge Germany for third-largest economy

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, marking a significant milestone in its economic journey. According to the government’s end-of-year economic review, India’s nominal gross domestic product has reached $4.18 trillion, placing it behind only the United States, China and Germany.

While the official confirmation will come in 2026 with the release of final annual GDP figures, international data already points in this direction. Projections indicate that India is on track to consolidate its position ahead of Japan in the current year.

India’s global economic standing improves

International projections show India continuing its upward trajectory. Estimates for 2026 place India’s economy at $4.51 trillion, marginally ahead of Japan’s projected $4.46 trillion. This strengthens expectations that India has effectively moved into the fourth position globally.

The government has said India is now poised to overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next two-and-a-half to three years. The economic review projects India’s GDP to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030, supported by strong domestic demand and ongoing structural reforms.

India first entered the top five global economies in 2022, when its GDP surpassed that of Britain, according to international financial data.

Growth continues despite global uncertainties

The government’s assessment comes at a time of global economic uncertainty. In August, Washington imposed steep tariffs on New Delhi over its purchases of Russian oil, adding pressure on trade and currency markets.

Despite these challenges, the review highlighted India’s economic resilience, stating that growth has remained strong amid persistent global trade uncertainties. The rupee touched a record low against the US dollar in early December after declining around five per cent in 2025, driven by concerns over trade relations and the impact of tariffs on exports.

Key challenges remain for India

While India’s overall economic size has expanded rapidly, income levels remain relatively low. According to World Bank data, India’s GDP per capita stood at $2,694 in 2024, far below Japan’s $32,487 and Germany’s $56,103.

India also faces the challenge of employment generation. More than a quarter of its 1.4 billion population is aged between 10 and 26, underscoring the need to create well-paying jobs for millions of young graduates entering the workforce.

Growth outlook remains strong

Global institutions continue to project robust growth for India. The World Bank has forecast economic growth of 6.5 per cent in 2026. Moody’s expects India to remain the fastest-growing G20 economy, with growth of 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 6.5 per cent in 2027.

The International Monetary Fund has revised its outlook upward, projecting growth of 6.6 per cent in 2025 and 6.2 per cent in 2026. Other agencies, including the OECD, Asian Development Bank, S&P and Fitch, have also issued optimistic forecasts, citing strong consumer demand and reform momentum.

The government reiterated its long-term ambition of achieving high middle-income status by 2047, the centenary year of India’s independence, driven by sustained economic growth, structural reforms and social progress.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced broad consumption tax cuts and advanced labour law reforms after economic growth slowed to a four-year low in the year ended March 31.

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Jamaat, BNP supporters clash in Dhaka as Bangladesh votes in 13th parliamentary polls

Clashes erupted in Dhaka’s Mirpur as Bangladesh voted in its 13th parliamentary elections, marking the first polls after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.

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Clashes broke out between supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in Dhaka’s Mirpur-10 constituency as Bangladesh voted in its 13th parliamentary elections on Thursday.

Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman is contesting from the Mirpur-10 seat. Polling is being conducted for 299 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, Bangladesh’s parliament.

Voting details and electoral process

Voting began at 7.30 am local time (7 am IST) under the first-past-the-post system. Results are expected to start coming in by evening.

Out of the 300 parliamentary constituencies, polling in Sherpur-3 has been cancelled following the death of a candidate. A total of 12.77 crore registered voters are eligible to cast their ballots. The majority mark in the 299-seat contest stands at 150.

In addition to these seats, 50 positions in the Jatiya Sangsad are reserved for women. These members are elected by Members of Parliament through proportional representation using the single transferable vote system.

First polls after Hasina’s ouster

This election marks the first parliamentary contest since former prime minister and Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina was removed from office following massive student protests in August 2024. Her long-time political rival, BNP leader Khaleda Zia, passed away in December the following year.

Hasina and Zia alternated in power from 1991 until Hasina returned to office in 2009. She remained prime minister for over 15 years and 200 days and had won the 2024 elections before being deposed months later.

For the first time in decades, voters are participating in national elections without either of the two dominant political figures shaping the contest.

Changing political landscape

With the Awami League excluded from participating due to its crackdown during the student protests, the political space has shifted significantly.

Tarique Rahman, son of Khaleda Zia, returned to Bangladesh in December after nearly 17 years in exile. The 60-year-old has emerged as a frontrunner for the prime minister’s post, drawing on the support base of the BNP and his late mother.

Jamaat-e-Islami, once allied with the BNP, is now leading its own coalition. It has secured backing from the National Citizen Party, a student and Gen-Z platform that emerged from the anti-Hasina protests.

Referendum on July National Charter

Alongside the general election, voters are also participating in a referendum on the July National Charter. The charter has been agreed upon by the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government and several political parties.

Key proposals in the charter include limiting prime ministers to two terms or 10 years, creating an upper House of parliament, and restoring the caretaker government system to oversee elections for 90 days to ensure free and fair polls.

Regional implications

The outcome of the election is expected to influence regional dynamics involving India, China and Pakistan.

Bangladesh had been seen as closer to India during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. However, there has been a shift towards Beijing and Islamabad in recent times. Relations between India and Bangladesh have reportedly been tense under the Yunus-led interim arrangement.

Among the two principal contenders, the BNP is considered relatively more inclined towards New Delhi than Jamaat-e-Islami.

India is also monitoring the situation amid reports of attacks on minorities and killings of Hindus following Hasina’s ouster. Authorities have expressed concerns about potential violence on polling day.

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Donald Trump calls India trade deal historic, highlights rise in US coal exports

Donald Trump describes the India trade deal as historic and links it to rising US coal exports, while India reiterates national interest in energy decisions.

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US President Donald Trump has described the recent trade agreement with India as “historic”, saying it has contributed to a sharp rise in American coal exports.

Speaking at the Champion of Coal Event on Wednesday, Trump said the United States has strengthened its position as the world’s leading energy producer and is rapidly expanding its footprint as an energy exporter.

He said that trade deals signed in recent months with countries including Japan, South Korea and India have helped increase coal exports from the US.

“America is now the number one energy producer in the world. We’re becoming a massive energy exporter. In just the past few months, we’ve made historic trade deals with Japan, Korea, India, and others to increase our coal exports dramatically. The quality of our coal is supposed to be the finest anywhere in the world,” Trump said.

He also asserted that American coal is considered among the best globally in terms of quality.

India says national interest will guide energy choices

Meanwhile, on February 9, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that India’s energy-related decisions will continue to be guided by national interest.

During a special briefing by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), Misri underlined that India’s energy policy is driven by adequate availability, fair pricing and reliable supply. His remarks came amid reports suggesting that India may be reducing its oil imports from Russia.

Clarifying how energy sourcing decisions are made, Misri said procurement is handled by oil companies based on prevailing market conditions. These companies assess availability, risks, pricing and logistical considerations while following internal accountability and fiduciary processes.

“As far as the actual sourcing of energy is concerned, this is undertaken by oil companies, which make decisions based on market conditions. They assess availability, evaluate risks, analyse costs, and follow their internal accountability processes and fiduciary responsibilities. At any given time, there is a complex matrix of considerations, including financial and logistical aspects, that these companies must take into account,” he said.

He added that both government and business decisions in the energy sector would continue to prioritise national interest.

Misri also noted that India remains a net importer of oil and gas and, as a developing economy, must remain mindful of resource availability and the inflationary impact of import dependence.

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Piyush Goyal lauds USA’s fabulous effort against India in T20 World Cup

Piyush Goyal praised the US cricket team’s performance against India in the T20 World Cup, calling it fabulous despite the defeat and making a light-hearted remark on tariffs.

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Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday praised the United States cricket team for their performance against India in the ongoing T20 World Cup, saying the side played “fabulously” despite losing the match.

Goyal made the remarks while responding to light-hearted comments by US Ambassador Sergio Gor at a reception hosted by the diplomat. Both were present at the India-USA T20 World Cup match played on Saturday.

Speaking at the event, the minister acknowledged the rapid progress made by the US cricket team in recent years. He also joked that trade policy might have changed the match’s outcome.

“The US may not have won the match, but for a country which has not known cricket and has started playing only a few years ago, the performance was fabulous,” Goyal said.

Referring to Ambassador Gor’s comments, he added humorously that if the US had made reciprocal tariffs zero, “you would possibly have won the match”.

India seal first win of the tournament

India registered their first victory of the tournament with a 29-run win over the USA. After being asked to bat first, India posted 161 for nine in their allotted 20 overs.

Suryakumar Yadav anchored the innings with an unbeaten 84 off 49 balls, hitting 10 fours and four sixes. Ishan Kishan contributed 20 off 16 deliveries, while Tilak Varma added 25 off 16 balls.

For the USA, Shadley van Schalkwyk returned figures of 4 for 29, while Harmeet Singh picked up two wickets for 26 runs.

USA fall short in chase

Chasing 162, the USA were restricted to 132 for eight, falling short by 29 runs.

Milind Kumar scored 34 off 34 balls, while Sanjay Krishnamurthi (37 off 31) and Shubham Ranjane (37 off 22) provided resistance in the middle order.

India’s bowlers shared the spoils, with Mohammed Siraj taking three wickets for 29 runs. Axar Patel and Arshdeep Singh chipped in with two wickets each.

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