Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic strategy to protect India from rising global trade tensions became clearer with the presentation of the Union Budget 2026, which focused on strengthening strategic sectors, supporting exporters and maintaining fiscal stability.

The spending plan comes at a time when India faces an uncertain external environment, marked by tariff pressures from the United States and disruptions to global supply chains. The budget announced fresh support for exporters affected by overseas trade barriers and increased backing for critical sectors such as rare earths, semiconductors and critical minerals.

A key highlight of the budget was a significant push towards national security and infrastructure. The government announced an 18% increase in defence expenditure alongside new infrastructure outlays, positioning the move as a safeguard against regional security challenges involving China and Pakistan.

Despite higher spending in select areas, the government largely adhered to its fiscal roadmap. Overall expenditure remained controlled, with no major tax cuts for households and no large-scale stimulus measures. The budget also avoided major populist announcements in a year when the ruling party faces electoral contests in several states.

According to policy analysts, the approach reflects caution amid global uncertainty. The emphasis is on insulating the economy while keeping a close watch on external risks rather than pursuing aggressive expansion.

Market reaction to the budget was muted, with equities declining after the announcement. Investors attributed the fall mainly to a tax increase on equity market transactions aimed at curbing speculation, rather than dissatisfaction with the broader spending plan. The government’s decision to borrow more than expected in the next fiscal year also raised concerns about potential pressure on the bond market.

Setting the tone for the budget speech in Parliament, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted the challenges posed by weakening multilateral trade systems and disruptions in access to resources and supply chains. She stressed the need for India to remain integrated with global markets while boosting exports and attracting long-term investment.

Although not named directly, the budget addressed challenges arising from recent tariff measures imposed by the US, including steep duties affecting labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and furniture. These measures have added pressure on industries dependent on overseas demand.

The government’s response has been to strengthen domestic capabilities. Over the past year, steps have been taken to boost consumption, simplify labour regulations and open up sectors such as nuclear energy and finance to investors. The latest budget builds on that direction by deepening reforms and improving productivity across sectors.

At the same time, India is seeking to diversify its trade relationships. Recent free trade agreements with the European Union, the UK and New Zealand aim to reduce dependence on any single market and provide exporters with greater stability.

Focus on self-reliance and strategic sectors

The budget placed strong emphasis on self-reliance, announcing new initiatives to promote domestic manufacturing in semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. It also outlined plans to develop mining, processing and manufacturing capacity for rare earth minerals, particularly in mineral-rich eastern and southern states.

Industry leaders described the initiatives as essential for building a resilient industrial ecosystem capable of withstanding global shocks.

However, questions remain over whether the cautious spending approach will be sufficient to support growth and generate employment for India’s young workforce. While the government has projected growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the coming fiscal year, market estimates are slightly lower.

Opposition leaders criticised the budget for not addressing issues such as youth unemployment and declining household savings. The government, however, appears focused on navigating geopolitical and economic uncertainty while staying committed to fiscal discipline.