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India overtakes Japan, set to challenge Germany for third-largest economy

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is on track to challenge Germany for the third spot within the next three years.

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India overtakes Japan, set to challenge Germany for third-largest economy

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, marking a significant milestone in its economic journey. According to the government’s end-of-year economic review, India’s nominal gross domestic product has reached $4.18 trillion, placing it behind only the United States, China and Germany.

While the official confirmation will come in 2026 with the release of final annual GDP figures, international data already points in this direction. Projections indicate that India is on track to consolidate its position ahead of Japan in the current year.

India’s global economic standing improves

International projections show India continuing its upward trajectory. Estimates for 2026 place India’s economy at $4.51 trillion, marginally ahead of Japan’s projected $4.46 trillion. This strengthens expectations that India has effectively moved into the fourth position globally.

The government has said India is now poised to overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next two-and-a-half to three years. The economic review projects India’s GDP to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030, supported by strong domestic demand and ongoing structural reforms.

India first entered the top five global economies in 2022, when its GDP surpassed that of Britain, according to international financial data.

Growth continues despite global uncertainties

The government’s assessment comes at a time of global economic uncertainty. In August, Washington imposed steep tariffs on New Delhi over its purchases of Russian oil, adding pressure on trade and currency markets.

Despite these challenges, the review highlighted India’s economic resilience, stating that growth has remained strong amid persistent global trade uncertainties. The rupee touched a record low against the US dollar in early December after declining around five per cent in 2025, driven by concerns over trade relations and the impact of tariffs on exports.

Key challenges remain for India

While India’s overall economic size has expanded rapidly, income levels remain relatively low. According to World Bank data, India’s GDP per capita stood at $2,694 in 2024, far below Japan’s $32,487 and Germany’s $56,103.

India also faces the challenge of employment generation. More than a quarter of its 1.4 billion population is aged between 10 and 26, underscoring the need to create well-paying jobs for millions of young graduates entering the workforce.

Growth outlook remains strong

Global institutions continue to project robust growth for India. The World Bank has forecast economic growth of 6.5 per cent in 2026. Moody’s expects India to remain the fastest-growing G20 economy, with growth of 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 6.5 per cent in 2027.

The International Monetary Fund has revised its outlook upward, projecting growth of 6.6 per cent in 2025 and 6.2 per cent in 2026. Other agencies, including the OECD, Asian Development Bank, S&P and Fitch, have also issued optimistic forecasts, citing strong consumer demand and reform momentum.

The government reiterated its long-term ambition of achieving high middle-income status by 2047, the centenary year of India’s independence, driven by sustained economic growth, structural reforms and social progress.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced broad consumption tax cuts and advanced labour law reforms after economic growth slowed to a four-year low in the year ended March 31.

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UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper visits India to strengthen bilateral partnership

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper held high-level meetings in New Delhi during her first official visit to India, underscoring efforts to deepen cooperation in trade, security, technology and regional stability.

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UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper visited New Delhi for her first official trip to India since assuming office, holding key meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar as both countries seek to deepen cooperation across trade, security and strategic sectors.

The visit comes at a significant time in India-UK relations, with both governments working toward the implementation of their recently concluded trade agreement while also expanding collaboration in areas such as technology, climate action, supply chains and regional security.

Focus on trade and strategic cooperation

During her engagements in New Delhi, Cooper discussed ways to strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. Conversations also touched on accelerating the implementation of the India-UK trade agreement and enhancing economic cooperation.

Her visit followed recent discussions between Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and UK Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle regarding the rollout of the bilateral trade pact.

New initiatives announced

India and the UK also announced fresh cooperation initiatives during the visit, including the launch of a Critical Minerals Global Supply Chain Observatory aimed at strengthening collaboration on critical minerals and supply-chain resilience.

Officials described the initiative as an important step in expanding cooperation in emerging strategic sectors and supporting resilient global supply chains.

Addressing global challenges

Apart from bilateral issues, discussions covered wider global concerns, including regional stability, economic disruptions arising from international conflicts and maritime security. The visit reflects the growing importance both countries attach to their strategic partnership amid evolving geopolitical challenges.

India and the UK have increasingly broadened cooperation across defence, technology, innovation, clean energy and people-to-people ties, with both sides aiming to further strengthen engagement in the coming years.

Fact-check assessment

The core angle—Yvette Cooper’s first official visit to India, meetings with PM Modi and S. Jaishankar, focus on trade, security, strategic cooperation and the launch of new bilateral initiatives—is supported by multiple current reports and appears factually sound.

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Trump says India-US trade deal likely soon, calls PM Modi a good friend

Donald Trump has expressed confidence that India and the United States will soon finalize a trade agreement, while praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi and highlighting ongoing bilateral negotiations.

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Donald Trump statement

US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that the United States and India will reach a trade agreement in the near future, even as discussions continue amid concerns over potential new tariffs. Trump also praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi, describing him as a good friend and highlighting the strong relationship between the two leaders.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said he expects the two countries to finalize a deal and pointed to his personal rapport with Prime Minister Modi. He said the relationship between Washington and New Delhi remains strong and that ongoing negotiations are moving toward an agreement.

The remarks come shortly after a US trade delegation concluded discussions in India on an interim bilateral trade arrangement. According to Indian officials, the talks were conducted in a cooperative atmosphere, with both sides reaffirming their commitment to a mutually beneficial agreement aimed at strengthening economic ties.

During the interaction, Trump also repeated his criticism of India’s past tariff policies, arguing that India had imposed high duties on American goods for many years. He claimed recent US trade measures were intended to address what he views as an imbalance in the trading relationship.

His comments come days after the US administration proposed additional tariffs on imports from India and several other economies under a separate trade investigation related to forced-labour concerns. The proposal remains under review and has become one of the issues running alongside broader trade negotiations between the two countries.

Despite the tariff dispute, both governments have continued negotiations. Recent statements from officials on both sides suggest that substantial progress has already been made on several aspects of the proposed agreement, with discussions focused on resolving the remaining issues.

The United States is one of India’s largest trading partners, and a bilateral agreement is expected to further expand trade and investment flows between the two countries. Trump’s latest remarks are being seen as a sign that both sides remain committed to finding common ground despite ongoing trade disagreements.

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India considers tax relief to attract foreign investors amid Iran war impact

India is evaluating tax incentives, including a possible capital gains tax exemption on government securities for foreign investors, to support capital inflows amid economic pressures linked to the Iran war.

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India is considering a set of measures aimed at attracting more foreign investment as the ongoing Iran war continues to create pressure on the country’s economy, according to reports citing government sources. One of the key proposals under discussion is the removal of capital gains tax on investments made by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in government securities.

The move comes at a time when geopolitical tensions in West Asia have pushed up global oil prices, weakened investor sentiment and increased pressure on the Indian rupee. India, which imports a significant share of its crude oil requirements, has been among the countries closely monitoring the economic fallout from the conflict.

Government exploring ways to boost capital inflows

Officials are reportedly evaluating tax-related incentives to make Indian debt markets more attractive to overseas investors. The proposed exemption on capital gains from government securities is aimed at encouraging foreign portfolio investment and supporting capital inflows during a period of heightened global uncertainty.

The government is seeking to counter the impact of foreign capital outflows that have intensified amid concerns over the Iran conflict and its implications for energy markets and global economic growth.

Rupee and markets under pressure

Recent weeks have seen increased volatility in financial markets, with foreign investors pulling money out of Indian equities. Analysts have linked part of the pressure on the rupee to rising oil prices and continued overseas investor withdrawals.

Market participants believe that measures aimed at attracting foreign investment into government securities could help improve investor confidence and provide support to the domestic currency.

Broader economic concerns

The Iran war has added to concerns about inflation, economic growth and India’s external sector. Higher energy prices can increase import costs and put pressure on inflation, while sustained foreign capital outflows may affect financial market stability.

While no final decision has been announced, discussions on easing tax rules for foreign investors reflect the government’s efforts to strengthen capital inflows and cushion the economy from external shocks.

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