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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Cricket news

T20 World Cup: Co-host West Indies receives terror threat from Pakistan

Cricket West Indies (CWI) CEO Jonny Graves said that the safety and security of everyone at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2024 is their number one priority.

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North Pakistan had issued a terror threat against the West Indies, who are co-hosting the T20 World Cup today, May 6. However, West Indies (CWI) assured the public that every safety measure has been done.

The Caribbean islands have received warnings about possible terror threats coming from North Pakistan, according to a trustworthy source with firsthand knowledge of the circumstances. From June 1 to June 29, the US and the West Indies will host the T20 World Cup.

World Cup matches in Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago will take place in the West Indies. In addition, there are matches in the US cities of Florida, New York, and Texas; however, there appears to be no danger to the games in the US. Barbados will host the final after the two semifinals are held in Trinidad and Guyana.

A source said that they are closely monitoring the situation and maintaining close communication with relevant authorities. Continuous evaluation of security measures is underway to ensure appropriate plans are in place to mitigate any identified risks, they added.

The severity of the problem has increased with the assignment of blame for the danger to IS Khorasan. Trinidad Prime Minister Keith Rowley said that security forces have protocols in place to handle any threats to matches.

As per the report, the Barbados regional security officials are monitoring potential threats to the ICC event in addition to the fact that intelligence of a potential threat to the World Cup has been received through Pro-Islamic State (Daesh) through the media group Nashir Pakistan.

Regarding India, the Men in Blue will face off against Ireland at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium in New York in their season-opening match. On June 9, they will play their next game at the same location against their bitter rivals, Pakistan. The team captained by Rohit Sharma will play the United States in their subsequent game in New York, and then they will play Canada in their last group-stage encounter at the Central Broward Regional Park Stadium Turf Ground in Lauderhill, Florida.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

PM Modi says expiry date of BJD government in Odisha is June 4

The prime minister was addressing an election rally in Odisha’s Behrampur. The state of Odisha is going to Assembly as well as general elections simultaneously starting May 13.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said that 2 Yagya are taking place together in Odisha – one to form a government in India and the other in the state. He was confident that the BJP will form the double-engine government in Odisha for the first time. The prime minister was addressing an election rally in Odisha’s Behrampur. The state of Odisha is going to Assembly as well as general elections simultaneously starting May 13. The counting of votes of both elections is going to take place on June 4.

PM Modi added that enthusiasm of the people shows that the double-engine government is going to be formed in Odisha for the first time. He further asserted that BJP does what it says. Therefore, after forming the government here, they will implement the declarations made in the manifesto with full force and this is Modi’s guarantee.

The prime minister further added that the expiry date of the BJD government in Odisha is written as June 4.  He said the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate for Odisha will be decided on 6th June. PM Modi predicted that the swearing-in ceremony of the BJP Chief Minister will be held in Bhubaneswar on June 10. He said today he had come to invite the people of Odisha to the swearing-in ceremony of the Chief Minister of the BJP government in the state.

PM Modi attacked Congress and Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and said that the people of the rich state have remained poor and both the parties are responsible for it. He said in Odisha, it was Congress for around 50 years, and BJD for around 25 years. The prime minister said everyone has seen the result. He added Odisha has a fertile land, mineral resources, sea coasts, a trade centre like that of Berhampur, culture, heritage and still, the people of this rich Odisha have remained poor. He asked who is responsible for this sin? The answer is Congress and BJD.

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India News

ED raids Jharkhand minister’s secretary, recovers Rs 20 crore from house help

Jharkhand minister’s secretary raided by ED, huge amount of cash recovered.

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The Enforcement Directorate on Monday, May 6, started conducting raids at several Ranchi sites, including the home of Sanjiv Lal, the minister for Jharkhand Alamgir Alam’s personal secretary. A substantial sum of money, estimated to be between Rs 20 to Rs 30 crore, was taken from Sanjiv Lal’s house help.

The majority of the money is in notes worth Rs 500, and authorities have also found some jewellery with it.

Alamgir Alam who is the minister for Rural Development in Jharkhand. The 70-year-old Congress leader serves as the legislator for the Pakur seat in Jharkhand.

Video captured officers from the central investigation unit removing bundles of banknotes from suitcases in a room.

In its investigation into reported corruption in Jharkhand’s rural development department, the ED has made headway. The chief engineer of the department, Virendra Ram, was taken into custody in February 2023 in relation to a money laundering case involving possible anomalies in the execution of government projects.

In November 2019, the state’s Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) filed a formal complaint after apprehending junior engineer Suresh Prasad Verma for receiving a bribe. A substantial quantity of cash was found in a Verma-owned home that his cousin Alok Ranjan, who is connected to Virendra Ram, was occupying during the ACB’s investigation.

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