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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Delhi to install 305 mist sprayers across 9 major pollution hotspots

Chief Minister Rekha Gupta announced that 305 mist sprayers will be installed across nine pollution hotspots in Delhi, alongside expert-led planning and coordinated measures to reduce dust and biomass-related pollution.

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Delhi-NCR air quality

The Delhi government has announced a large-scale deployment of mist sprayer technology to tackle rising air pollution, with Chief Minister Rekha Gupta confirming that 305 mist sprayers will be installed across nine pollution hotspots in the capital.

Mist sprayers to curb dust at critical locations

During an inspection at ITO, Gupta said the mist sprayers already operational at the site are performing effectively. She noted that 35 poles at ITO have been fitted with these machines, which are helping suppress dust—a major contributor to air pollution in Delhi.

According to the Chief Minister, trials conducted in certain NDMC areas have shown promising results, reinforcing confidence in the technology.

High-level committee to guide pollution-control measures

Gupta announced the formation of a high-level expert committee that will advise the government on effective measures to reduce pollution. The panel will include senior officials from various departments as well as environmental specialists, including experts from IITs. Officials stated that the committee will receive special powers to implement pollution-mitigation strategies.

Departments directed to repair roads, add greenery

The Chief Minister said departments including PWD, DSIIDC and DDA have been instructed to fix potholes, repair and carpet roads, plant foliage along dividers and islands, and take other measures to reduce pollution sources.

She urged residents to report potholes on the government portal for quicker action.

Appeal to RWAs to prevent biomass burning

To curb winter pollution, Gupta advised Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs) to distribute electric heaters to security guards to discourage biomass burning, which significantly contributes to seasonal pollution spikes.

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India News

PM Modi welcomes Vladimir Putin with warm hug as Russian President begins India visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a high-profile visit to India on Thursday, welcomed by PM Narendra Modi as both nations prepare to discuss defence, energy and trade cooperation.

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Vladimir Putin rides in Indian PM Narendra Modi's car on India visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi on Thursday evening for a 27-hour visit focused on strengthening defence, energy and trade cooperation. The visit, marked by a warm embrace and a brief car ride shared with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscores the continuity of the India-Russia strategic partnership amid shifting global geopolitics.

Putin receives ceremonial welcome and packed schedule ahead

Putin landed in Delhi around 6:35 pm, where PM Modi personally received him at Palam airport. The two leaders shared a hug before leaving together, with the Prime Minister set to host a private dinner in honour of the visiting President — a reciprocal gesture to the hospitality extended during Modi’s Moscow visit last year.

On Friday, Putin will begin his official engagements with a ceremonial welcome at Rashtrapati Bhavan, followed by a visit to Rajghat to pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi. He is also scheduled to attend the India-Russia Annual Summit at Hyderabad House, where both sides will hold a working lunch.

The Russian President will later inaugurate a new India-based channel of Russia’s state broadcaster and attend a state banquet hosted by President Droupadi Murmu, before departing India on Friday night.

Defence, energy and trade to dominate agenda

Officials have indicated that discussions will centre on defence, energy and trade — the three pillars of the bilateral relationship. Agreements are expected across sectors including shipping, healthcare, fertilisers and connectivity.

Ahead of the summit, defence ministers from both countries held extensive talks, covering additional procurement of S-400 air defence systems and delayed military hardware shipments affected by the Ukraine war. The S-400 platform, procured under a USD 5 billion deal, played a major role during Operation Sindoor.

The Kremlin has also hinted that Russia may propose the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet, which would put Moscow in direct competition with Western aircraft makers.

Energy ties face renewed pressure

India remains among the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude. However, fresh US sanctions on key Russian oil producers have led to a dip in purchases.

Putin’s visit also comes at a time of strain in India-US ties, with Washington recently imposing steep tariffs on Indian goods — including measures linked directly to India’s continued oil trade with Russia.

Massive security deployment in Delhi

Delhi Police have stationed over 5,000 personnel across central and New Delhi districts, supported by SWAT teams, anti-terror units, snipers, quick-reaction teams, anti-drone systems, HD-CCTV networks and layered surveillance measures for the visit.

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India News

Rahul Gandhi attacks Centre ahead of Vladimir Putin’s India visit

Rahul Gandhi alleged that the government discourages visiting foreign dignitaries from meeting Opposition leaders, calling it a sign of “insecurity,” hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Delhi.

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Rahul Gandhi

As Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Delhi today for the India-Russia Annual Summit, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi has renewed his charge that the Centre discourages visiting foreign leaders from meeting Opposition representatives. He called it a sign of “insecurity” within the government.

Rahul Gandhi alleges break in long-followed tradition

Speaking outside Parliament, Rahul Gandhi said that it has traditionally been the norm for visiting foreign leaders to meet the Leader of the Opposition, a practice he claims continued during the tenures of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh.

He alleged that the present government advises foreign dignitaries against such meetings. “When foreign leaders come, the government suggests they should not meet the Leader of the Opposition. This is their policy,” Gandhi said. He added that a meeting with the Opposition offers visiting leaders a broader perspective, as “we too represent India.”

Gandhi further stated that this approach reflects the government’s reluctance to allow engagement between the Opposition and foreign guests.

Former Foreign Secretary counters Gandhi’s remarks

Responding to Gandhi’s allegations, former Foreign Secretary and Rajya Sabha MP Harsh Vardhan Shringla said visiting leaders operate on very tight schedules and there is no protocol mandating a meeting with the Leader of the Opposition. He stressed that such interactions depend entirely on the guest’s time and preference, noting that the required meetings are those with the President and the Prime Minister.

Putin’s schedule packed with bilateral engagements

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to land in Delhi this evening on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation. His itinerary includes:

  • A private dinner with PM Modi
  • Visit to Mahatma Gandhi’s memorial at Raj Ghat
  • Engagements at Bharat Mandapam and Hyderabad House
  • A banquet hosted by President Droupadi Murmu

The visit forms part of the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit.

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