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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Ahead of Delhi Elections, Arvind Kejriwal launches Revdi Par Charcha campaign to seek feedback on freebies

Arvind Kejriwal said 65,000 meetings will be held across Delhi at micro levels by the AAP leaders and workers.

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Ahead of Delhi Elections, Arvind Kejriwal launches Revdi Par Charcha campaign to seek feedback on freebies

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on Friday launched a campaign with a tagline Revdi Par Charcha to seek public feedback on freebies. The campaign comes ahead of the assembly elections, which is scheduled to be held in February.

Former Chief Minister and AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal launched the campaign with his colleagues at the party office, saying while the opposition calls freebies as revdi, the party calls it services. This campaign will start on November 25 and will continue for 15 days until December 10, discussing the issues with common man.

Notably, the opposition has been targeting the AAP for providing free electricity, water and free public buses for women among other facilities. However, AAP feels freebies help citizens live a life of dignity.

Gopal Rai, AAP’s Delhi unit chief, said that so far, politicians used to enjoy the facilities, while citizens paid taxes. He continued that Arvind Kejriwal’s government decided that the people should also get the facilities like the politicians, adding the BJP called their attempt revdis. He said that AAP is launching the ‘Revdi Par Charcha’ campaign to discuss with the people in the city if the government should provide the facilities or not.

Launching the campaign, Arvind Kejriwal said 65,000 meetings will be held across Delhi at micro levels by the AAP leaders and workers. He said that AAP has six revdis for the people of Delhi. Mentioning that the Prime Minister and BJP have said several times that Kejriwal is providing freebies to the people that should be stopped, the former Chief Minister said that now people will now tell them if they want these six freebies.  He further concluded that if the BJP is elected here, they will stop these services immediately.

While listing the six services, the AAP national convenor said that Delhi is getting free electricity round the clock. He added that there was a time when Delhi used to see power cuts for 8-10 hours, but AAP ensured that the situation changed. He also noted that his party is providing free water, free pilgrimage to senior citizens, free bus rides to women, free world-class education and free medicine and treatments. Additionally, the pamphlet launched by Arvind Kejriwal also listed that soon the women in Delhi will get Rs 1,000 per month as well, later termed as the seventh revdi by the former Chief Minister.

Reports said that the paper will be circulated across the national capital. The paper also reads that if the reader feels they are getting huge water bills, they should not pay it. It mentioned that AAP will waive all water bills once Arvind Kejriwal is re-elected.

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Rahul Gandhi says air pollution in North India a national emergency, tourism declining, global reputation crumbling

“We need a collective national response, not political blame games,” the Congress leader said on his X handle.

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Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Friday said the air pollution in North India is a national emergency that needs a collective national response and not a political blame game. The Congress leader added that due to air pollution tourism is declining and “our global reputation is crumbling”.

It is a public health crisis that is stealing children’s future and suffocating the elderly, Gandhi said, adding an environmental and economic disaster that is ruining countless lives.

“As Parliament meets in a few days, MPs will all be reminded of the crisis by our irritated eyes and sore throats. It is our responsibility to come together and discuss how India can end this crisis once and for all,” the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha said.

The former Congress chief said the poorest “among us suffer the most”, unable to escape the toxic air surrounding them. Families are gasping for clean air, children are falling sick, and millions of lives are being cut short, he added.

The Rae Bareli MP noted that the pollution cloud covers hundreds of kilometres. He said cleaning it up will require major changes and decisive action from governments, companies, experts, and citizens.

“We need a collective national response, not political blame games,” the Congress leader said on his X handle.

Gandhi also shared a video on a social media platform where he discussed the capital’s air pollution with environmentalist expert Vimalendu Jha. In the video, the Congress leader said he has been facing eye-burning and breathing issues and how the last week in Delhi has been terrible.

He said, “I tell my mother to leave town this month.” Jha explains to Gandhi that the sources of air pollution in Delhi are episodic and perennial. Episodic sources are firecrackers and stubble burning, which affect the month of November. “Vehicular contributes 50 per cent of Delhi’s pollution and construction-related roadside dust is another 30 per cent,” Jha said.

The Air Quality Index in Delhi has been severe since November 16, making it five consecutive days till Wednesday. On November 15, the average AQI was 396 (very poor).

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Indian Navy submarine collides with fishing boat near Goa coast, 2 fishermen missing

A spokesperson from the Navy told the media that eleven crew have been rescued so far.

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Indian Navy submarine collides with fishing boat near Goa coast, 2 fishermen missing

Indian Navy officials on Friday said that an Indian fishing vessel with a crew of 13 collided with an Indian Naval submarine near the Goa coast. 

Following the incident, a massive search and rescue operation has been launched by the Indian Navy, which has deployed six ships and aircraft. Reportedly, while 11 crew have been rescued, two are still missing.

The Ministry of Defence issued a statement and said that the vessel, Marthoma, collided with a Scorpene-class submarine about 70 nautical miles off the Goa coast. It added that search and rescue efforts for the remaining two are underway and are being coordinated with Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre Mumbai (MRCC). It further mentioned that additional assets including from the Coast Guard have been diverted to the area to augment the efforts.

The statement said that the cause of the incident is being investigated. Notably, Scorpene-class submarines are a major part of India’s naval power in the Indian Ocean as they can undertake multifarious types of missions, including anti-surface warfare, anti-submarine warfare, intelligence gathering, mine laying, and area surveillance.

Reports said that the state-of-the-art technology utilised for the construction of the Scorpene-class submarines has ensured superior stealth features such as advanced acoustic silencing techniques, low radiated noise levels, hydro-dynamically optimized shape and the ability to launch a crippling attack on the enemy using precision-guided weapons. Furthermore, the attack can be launched with both torpedoes and tube-launched anti-ship missiles, whilst underwater or on the surface.

Meanwhile, the Indian Navy in its statement said that 13 crew members were aboard the fishing vessel at the time of the collision. It added that while 11 crew have been rescued so far, two fishermen are still reported missing.

A spokesperson from the Navy told the media that eleven crew have been rescued so far. He stated that search and rescue efforts for the remaining two crew members of Marthoma are in progress and are being coordinated with the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC), Mumbai. Additional assets including from the Coast Guard have been diverted to the area to augment the efforts, he continued.

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