English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

Published

on

Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

RSS not seeking political power, focused on uniting Hindu society, says Mohan Bhagwat

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said the organisation is not seeking political power but is focused on uniting Hindu society and promoting character-building during an interaction with athletes in Meerut.

Published

on

Mohan Bhagwat

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat on Friday said the organisation is not driven by any ambition for political power and is instead dedicated to uniting Hindu society and building individual character.

He made the remarks while interacting with nearly 950 national and international sportspersons at Madhav Kunj in Shatabdi Nagar, Meerut, as part of the RSS centenary outreach initiatives. According to participants present at the event, Bhagwat spoke for about 50 minutes and stressed the importance of social harmony and collective responsibility in nation-building.

Quoting Bhagwat, a participant said the RSS’ “sole objective is the organisation of the entire Hindu society and character-building of individuals,” adding that the organisation does not function in opposition to or competition with any specific group.

Emphasis on unity and cultural roots

Explaining his idea of India, Bhagwat said the nation goes beyond geographical boundaries and draws inspiration from figures such as Lord Ram, Lord Krishna, Lord Buddha, Lord Mahavira, Swami Vivekananda, Swami Dayanand and Mahatma Gandhi, participants said.

He reportedly stated that the term “Hindu” reflects unity in diversity rather than caste identity. Differences in modes of worship and deities, he said, do not weaken society as long as cultural harmony is preserved. He added that whenever social unity declined, the country faced crises.

The RSS chief outlined four foundational pillars of society — value inculcation, Sanatan culture, the spirit of dharma and adherence to truth — reiterating that the Sangh’s mission centres on strengthening society through individual development. Volunteers, he said, are active across various spheres of social life and prioritise national interest.

Sports as a tool for nation-building

Addressing the athletes, Bhagwat described sports as a powerful medium for bringing people together. He said nation-building is not the responsibility of any single organisation but of society as a whole.

Referring to Meerut’s historic role in the First War of Independence in 1857, he said the legacy later inspired Keshav Baliram Hedgewar to establish the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh in 1925.

Bhagwat also shared five guiding principles for those interested in associating with the RSS — understanding the organisation from within, engaging with its affiliated bodies, supporting its programmes, maintaining dialogue and working selflessly for the nation. He also answered questions from athletes during the session.

Outreach events in Uttar Pradesh

Bhagwat is currently on a tour of Uttar Pradesh. Earlier, he attended a two-day outreach event in Lucknow on February 17 and 18 and had also visited Gorakhpur. During his stay in Lucknow, he briefly met Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, while both deputy chief ministers called on him before he left for Meerut.

Arjuna Award-winning wrestler Alka Tomar described the programme as grand and praised the organisational efforts of RSS volunteers. She said sportspersons must contribute to nation-building and appreciated Bhagwat’s emphasis on working in the national interest.

Para Cricket Club of India player Surya Pratap Mishra of Bareilly, selected for a Sri Lanka tour, said Bhagwat assured support for para athletes to help them enhance the country’s pride. Kabaddi coach Pintu Malik from Shukratal in Muzaffarnagar termed the interaction inspiring, especially the message that players should support one another.

Bhagwat reached Meerut on Thursday night and held breakfast discussions on Friday with representatives from the sports and industry sectors. On Saturday, he is scheduled to interact with members of the intelligentsia, including representatives from education, industry, medicine, literature, art and trade. Entry to the event is restricted to invitees with passes issued by the RSS headquarters.

Continue Reading

India News

BJP MLA Vungzagin Valte dies after prolonged battle with injuries from Manipur violence

Manipur BJP MLA Vungzagin Valte has died in Gurugram nearly two years after suffering severe injuries in the 2023 ethnic violence in Imphal.

Published

on

BJP MLA (1)

Manipur BJP MLA Vungzagin Valte, who had been battling severe injuries sustained during the outbreak of ethnic violence in May 2023, died at a hospital in Haryana’s Gurugram on Thursday.

Valte, a representative from the Thanlon assembly constituency in Churachandpur district, was attacked in Imphal when tensions between Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities escalated into widespread clashes. The assault left him with critical head injuries that significantly affected his mobility and speech.

Long medical struggle after 2023 attack

Following the attack on May 4, 2023, Valte was admitted to a hospital in Delhi, where he spent several months in intensive care. According to his family, he suffered debilitating head trauma that left him wheelchair-bound and dependent on assistance for routine physical movements.

Despite prolonged treatment in the national capital for nearly two years, his health remained fragile. He later returned to Manipur, but complications linked to the injuries persisted.

Earlier this month, Valte complained of breathlessness and chest pain, prompting doctors to stabilise him in intensive care before he was flown to Delhi in an air ambulance on February 8. His condition had reportedly shown slight improvement before the transfer.

Family alleges role of Arambai Tenggol

Valte’s family had alleged that members of the Meitei group Arambai Tenggol were responsible for the attack in 2023. His son, David Mang Valte, had earlier stated that the MLA was assaulted while returning after meeting the then Chief Minister amid the communal crisis involving Kuki, Meitei and Zomi communities.

Valte belonged to the Zomi tribe and was serving as a BJP legislator from Thanlon at the time of his death.

Condolences pour in

Several political leaders expressed grief over his passing. Two-time MLA T Robindro Singh said his last meeting with Valte at Imphal Airport before he was airlifted for advanced treatment remains “deeply emotional and unforgettable.” He described Valte as a kind-hearted and humble leader who was always concerned about the welfare of the people.

Valte’s death marks the end of a prolonged and painful chapter that began with the outbreak of ethnic unrest in Manipur in 2023.

Continue Reading

India News

Amit Shah launches Rs 6,900 crore Vibrant Village Programme-II in Assam

Amit Shah has launched the Rs 6,900 crore Vibrant Village Programme-II in Assam to develop 140 villages along the Bangladesh border with improved infrastructure and employment opportunities.

Published

on

Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday launched the second phase of the Vibrant Village Programme in Assam, announcing a Rs 6,900-crore investment aimed at strengthening development in border areas.

The initiative seeks to transform 140 villages along the Bangladesh border in Assam into centres of modern education, employment and infrastructure. Shah formally inaugurated the programme at Natanpur village in the Barak Valley region of the state.

Focus on education, jobs and infrastructure

Addressing the gathering, Shah said the programme would ensure that border villages receive facilities on par with other parts of the country. He credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi for prioritising development in these regions.

“Today, we are officially beginning the Vibrant Village Programme-II, and through this, we will bring development to bordering villages and facilities like any other place across the country. This has been possible because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” Shah said.

He added that Natanpur would not be known merely for its proximity to the border but for excelling in education, employment generation, road connectivity, telecommunications and electricity.

Coverage across 17 states

According to Shah, the Centre has earmarked Rs 6,900 crore under Vibrant Village Programme-II to develop 334 blocks and 1,954 villages across 17 states.

In Assam alone, nine districts, 26 blocks and 140 villages have been identified under the scheme. Shah said all amenities in these villages would match those available in other villages across India.

“There was a time when border villages were called the last villages and lacked many amenities, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided that all border villages will be the first villages. Now these villages will be first in road, sanitation, drinking water, communications, employment and education,” he said.

The programme aims to strengthen infrastructure and socio-economic conditions in border areas, particularly those along the Bangladesh frontier in Assam.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com