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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Journalist files police complaint against Rahul Gandhi over push allegation

Journalist Richa Parashar has filed a criminal complaint against Rahul Gandhi and others, alleging that she was pushed while covering the Opposition’s march to the Supreme Court. The Congress has denied the allegation.

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Journalist Richa Parashar has filed a police complaint against Congress leader Rahul Gandhi over an alleged incident during the INDIA bloc’s march to the Supreme Court in New Delhi on October 12. She has sought the registration of a First Information Report (FIR) against Gandhi and others, alleging that she was pushed while covering the protest.

Parashar submitted her complaint to the Deputy Commissioner of Police (DCP), New Delhi district, on Friday, seeking immediate action. She has said she was three months pregnant at the time of the alleged incident and accused those involved of mistreatment, threats and the use of force.

What Richa Parashar alleged in her complaint

Parashar alleged that she was reporting on the Opposition’s march when the incident occurred. According to her earlier account, she was waiting near a gate on the Supreme Court premises to seek a response from Gandhi when he allegedly grabbed her hand and pulled her forward. She further alleged that his security personnel pushed her away, causing her to fall on the Supreme Court steps.

In her complaint, Parashar said she asked Gandhi questions before he allegedly pushed her towards a gate. She claimed that the force caused her to lose her balance and fall, and that her repeated requests not to be pushed were ignored.

Parashar has sought legal action against Gandhi and others whom she alleges were involved. The complaint reportedly seeks action under provisions of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), 2023, including Sections 74, 115(2), 131, 125 and 3(5). These provisions concern alleged assault or criminal force against a woman, voluntarily causing hurt, assault or criminal force, acts endangering human life or personal safety, and joint liability for acts committed with common intention.

The allegations and the sections cited in the complaint do not, by themselves, establish criminal liability.

Congress disputes the allegation

The Congress has challenged Parashar’s account of the incident. According to report, the party said a video released by the journalist did not show the sequence of events she described.

Congress leader Alka Lamba also questioned the circumstances surrounding the incident and accused those raising the issue of attempting to manufacture propaganda.

The allegations remain disputed. The complaint and the competing accounts should not be treated as an established finding of wrongdoing.

Incident took place during Opposition’s Supreme Court march

The alleged incident occurred on October 12, when Rahul Gandhi and other INDIA bloc leaders marched to the Supreme Court to submit a petition concerning alleged irregularities in the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

The Opposition has raised concerns about the voter-list revision process and alleged irregularities.

Parashar’s police complaint adds a legal dimension to the controversy surrounding the march. Any further action will depend on the police process and the relevant legal proceedings.

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India News

Delhi court orders release of CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke

A Delhi court on Saturday ordered the conditional release of Cockroach Janta Party founder Abhijeet Dipke, who was detained and subsequently arrested ahead of a planned protest march at Connaught Place.

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Abhijit Dipke

A Delhi court on Saturday ordered the conditional release of Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke, a day after he was detained and subsequently arrested ahead of a planned protest march in the national capital. The march was scheduled to take place at Connaught Place as part of demonstrations against alleged electoral irregularities.

Dipke was asked to furnish a bond and undertake to maintain peace as a condition of his release, according to reports. The court’s order came after he was produced before a Special Executive Magistrate following his arrest on Friday.

Why Abhijeet Dipke was detained

Dipke had planned to participate in the ‘Lehra Do Tiranga’ march at Connaught Place, where participants intended to gather and wave the national flag. The proposed demonstration was part of ongoing protests over alleged irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and demands for the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

According to the Delhi Police, Dipke was taken into preventive custody before being formally arrested in a case related to the apprehension of a breach of peace. Police cited Sections 126 and 170 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS).

Neha Bora was also detained

All India Students’ Association (AISA) president Neha Bora was also detained on Friday ahead of the planned march. She was released early Saturday morning after completing the formalities associated with her detention, according to the report.

Bora criticised the police action and called for the release of protesters who remained in custody. She also demanded an end to the SIR exercise and sought the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. These were her demands and allegations, rather than findings established by the court.

Protests over electoral rolls continue

The demonstrations involving CJP, student groups and opposition supporters have centred on allegations of irregularities in the voter-list revision process. Critics have questioned the exercise, while the Election Commission has maintained that its decisions were approved by the Supreme Court. The BJP has criticised the protests, describing them as attempts to spread anarchy, according to the report.

Dipke’s conditional release marks the latest development in the dispute over the planned Delhi protest. The court’s order concerns his release under specified conditions; it should not be interpreted as a judicial finding on the wider allegations surrounding the electoral-roll revision.

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Anirudh Ravichander to marry Kavya Maran in November, reception on November 21

Anirudh Ravichander and Kavya Maran are set to marry in November, with their Chennai wedding reception scheduled for November 21.

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Music composer Anirudh Ravichander and Sunrisers Hyderabad executive Kavya Maran are set to marry in November. Their wedding reception is scheduled to take place in Chennai on November 21, according to an announcement by Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy’s office.

The development followed a meeting between Revanth Reddy and Kavya’s parents, Sun Group chairman Kalanithi Maran and Kavery Maran, at the chief minister’s residence in Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad.

According to the Telangana Chief Minister’s Office, the couple’s reception is scheduled for November 21, with Kavya’s parents extending an invitation to the chief minister.

Telangana CM’s office announces reception date

The Telangana CMO shared photographs and videos of the meeting on its official social media account on October 16. The announcement stated that Kalanithi Maran and his wife had met Revanth Reddy to invite him to their daughter’s wedding reception.

The post specifically confirmed that the reception of Kavya Maran and Anirudh Ravichander would be held in Chennai on November 21.

The announcement provided an official confirmation of the reception date and venue, while details about the wedding ceremony itself have also been reported separately.

Who are Anirudh Ravichander and Kavya Maran?

Anirudh Ravichander is a prominent music composer in the Indian film industry. He gained widespread recognition with the song “Why This Kolaveri Di” and has since composed music for several major films, including Leo, Indian 2, Vettaiyan, Vidaamuyarchi and Coolie.

Kavya Maran is the daughter of Kalanithi Maran, chairman of the Sun Group. She serves as an executive director at Sun TV Network and is widely recognised in cricket circles for her association with Sunrisers Hyderabad, the IPL franchise.

Wedding rumours and reported ceremony details

Speculation about a possible marriage between Anirudh Ravichander and Kavya Maran had circulated before the latest announcement. Earlier reports in August 2026 discussed the possibility of a November wedding in Greece.

A subsequent report said the wedding was reportedly scheduled to take place in Greece on November 11. However, the couple had not directly confirmed their wedding plans in the cited report.

The Telangana Chief Minister’s Office has confirmed that the reception is scheduled for November 21 in Chennai. The reported wedding ceremony details should therefore be attributed to reports rather than presented as officially confirmed information.

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