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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Thackeray cousins reunite for Mumbai civic polls, announce Shiv Sena UBT–MNS alliance

Uddhav and Raj Thackeray have reunited after two decades, announcing a Shiv Sena–MNS alliance for the upcoming BMC elections with a focus on Marathi identity.

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Shiv sena ubt mns alliance

The long political estrangement between Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray has ended, with the cousins formally announcing an alliance for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. The joint decision marks a significant shift in Mumbai’s civic politics, placing Marathi identity at the centre of the campaign.

At a joint press conference, Raj Thackeray declared that the Shiv Sena and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) would contest the local body elections together. He asserted that Mumbai would get a Marathi mayor, adding that the mayor would come from the Shiv Sena–MNS alliance. Uddhav Thackeray, seated alongside him, echoed the confidence, stating that Mumbai would remain with them “come what may”.

Focus on unity and Marathi identity

Uddhav Thackeray underlined the importance of unity, invoking the slogan “batenge toh katenge” to warn against division. Raj Thackeray said the alliance would work to ensure that Marathi people get what they want, reinforcing the emphasis on regional identity that once defined the politics shaped by Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray.

The cousins, who have come together after nearly two decades, also appealed to leaders and workers unhappy with the Shiv Sena faction aligned with the BJP to join their front. The message was aimed at consolidating forces opposed to the ruling coalition in the state.

Seat-sharing and poll preparations

Elections to the BMC are due within a month, with voting scheduled for January 15. Political parties have already begun preparations for a high-intensity campaign to gain control of the country’s richest municipal body.

Uddhav Thackeray said that seat-sharing arrangements for Mumbai, Nashik and other municipal bodies have been finalised, though details were not disclosed. Sources indicated that the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray could contest around 145–150 seats, while the MNS may field candidates in 65–70 seats. The remaining seats are expected to be contested by allies, including a faction of the NCP.

Strategic reunion against rivals

The alliance shifts the political narrative from disputes over the “real Sena” to a united front led by the Thackeray family, signalling continuity with Bal Thackeray’s legacy. Party leaders described the reunion as a moment of significance for Marathi voters and Maharashtra.

The combination brings together Uddhav Thackeray’s support among traditional Sena loyalists and Raj Thackeray’s appeal among younger voters, positioning the alliance as a key challenger in the civic polls. Raj Thackeray’s return to the fold is also expected to consolidate the Marathi vote bank that had earlier moved towards the MNS, impacting rival formations in Mumbai.

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Nitin Gadkari flags Delhi air pollution, says two-day stay causes infection

Union minister Nitin Gadkari says spending two days in Delhi leads to infection, flags fossil fuel use as a major cause of pollution and calls for alternative energy solutions.

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Union Minister Nitin Gadkari

Delhi’s worsening air quality has drawn sharp criticism from within the ruling BJP, with Union minister Nitin Gadkari saying that even a brief stay in the national capital affects his health.

Speaking at a public event in Delhi, Gadkari remarked that spending just two days in the city results in an infection, raising questions over why the capital continues to struggle with severe pollution levels. His comments come at a time when the Air Quality Index has remained in the ‘very poor’ and ‘severe’ categories for weeks.

The Union minister, who handles the road transport and highways portfolio, acknowledged that the transport sector plays a major role in pollution. He said around 40 per cent of pollution is linked to fossil fuel usage and pointed out that India spends nearly Rs 22 lakh crore on importing fossil fuels, which also contributes to environmental damage.

Gadkari pushes for alternative fuels and exports

Gadkari stressed that promoting alternative fuel and biofuel technologies should be seen as a form of true nationalism. He argued that reducing imports and increasing exports would strengthen the country economically while also addressing pollution. According to him, resistance to eco-friendly technologies remains a major hurdle despite their long-term benefits.

Remarks on communal issues and secularism

During the same address, Gadkari said it was incorrect to label every Muslim as a terrorist, emphasising that there are varying degrees of extremism. He cited former President A P J Abdul Kalam as a national icon and underlined the importance of education, especially among marginalised sections.

He further claimed that Hindu-Muslim tensions in the country are a result of vote bank politics pursued by the Congress. Defining secularism as “justice for all”, Gadkari said policies driven by electoral considerations had created divisions. He asserted that Indian culture is neither communal nor casteist and described Hindutva as tolerant and inclusive.

Reiterating views earlier expressed by former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Gadkari said India was, is, and will remain a secular country, rooted in its cultural traditions that advocate welfare for all.

Political reactions over pollution issue

The BJP-led governments at the Centre and in Delhi have faced criticism over their handling of air pollution. Congress leader Imran Masood responded to Gadkari’s remarks by saying that the minister had at least acknowledged the seriousness of the problem. He added that pollution cannot be attributed only to vehicles, noting that similar vehicles operate outside Delhi as well.

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Over 24 lakh voters dropped from Kerala draft electoral roll after special revision

The Election Commission has removed over 24 lakh names from Kerala’s draft voter lists after verification during the Special Intensive Revision process.

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Over 24.08 lakh electors have been removed from the draft voter lists in Kerala following the completion of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, with the Election Commission publishing the updated draft electoral roll on Tuesday.

As per official data, Kerala has a total of 2,78,50,855 registered electors. Of these, 2,54,42,352 electors submitted their Enumeration Forms during the revision process, which concluded on December 18.

The poll body said the deletions were carried out after verification and were linked to multiple factors, including electors shifting to other states or Union Territories, voters found to be non-existent, individuals who did not submit enumeration forms within the stipulated time, and those who chose not to continue their registration.

Break-up of deleted names

According to the Election Commission, the deleted entries include 6,49,885 names of deceased voters, accounting for 2.33 per cent of the electorate. Another 14,61,769 voters, or 5.25 per cent, were removed after being found shifted or absent, while 1,36,029 voters, around 0.49 per cent, were deleted for being enrolled at multiple locations.

Claims and objections window open

Although the enumeration phase has ended, eligible citizens can still seek corrections. The Commission has opened a claims and objections period from December 23 to January 22, 2026, allowing applications for inclusion of eligible voters or removal of ineligible names from the rolls.

The final electoral roll for Kerala is scheduled to be published on February 21, 2026.

Awareness drives and field-level efforts

The Election Commission said extensive awareness campaigns were conducted across the state to ensure maximum participation. Senior election officials held regular meetings with political parties at the state, district and assembly constituency levels to explain the revision process and share progress updates.

Booth Level Officers (BLOs) carried out house-to-house visits to all electors listed as of October 27, distributing Enumeration Forms and making at least three follow-up visits for collection. Booth Level Agents were permitted to submit up to 50 forms per day to strengthen coordination at the grassroots level.

To support field staff, BLOs were assisted by Anganwadi workers, students from NCC, NSS and election literacy clubs, volunteers, revenue officials and social work students. The poll body said more than 93 per cent mapping of collected forms was achieved through repeated training sessions, video tutorials and doubt-clearing programmes.

Special initiatives during SIR

During the exercise, the Chief Electoral Officer of Kerala launched motivational and outreach initiatives aimed at supporting election staff managing the heavy workload of digitising voter data. District-level programmes were also rolled out to recognise and motivate BLOs and supervisors completing digitisation targets.

In areas with weak network connectivity, a community-based digitisation model was adopted, where BLOs collectively digitised forms from locations with better internet access. Special urban camps were organised across all wards of urban local bodies to ensure comprehensive coverage of city voters.

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