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Nothing cheerful in Q3 GDP figures

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While government data claims that GDP growth in the third quarter has stayed at 7%, a closer look at the figures brings to fore the adverse effects of demonetisation

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]7 per cent growth rate new bottom line

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

It is surprising that anyone should be surprised, shocked, elated, satisfied that that Quarter 3 economic indicators have not really gone down, and therefore infer that the November 8, 2016 demonetisation has not had any negative impact on the economy. A closer look at the figures shows that the numbers reveal no good news.

First, Q3 figures are lower than those of Q1 andQ2 for 2016-17. At constant prices (2011-12), the growth rate for Q 1 was 7.2 per cent, for Q2 it was 7.4 per cent and for Q3 7 per cent. At current prices, the figures are: Q1 (10.8 per cent), Q2 (11.8 per cent), Q3 (10.6). The sense of relief seems to arise from the fact that it was not as bad as expected. But in absolute terms, there is a distinct slip in Q3 compared to Q2, and a little less when Q3 figure is juxtaposed with Q1. To infer from this that demonetisation has not dampened growth figures is permissible indulgence but it does not speak well for the economy.

There is also need to compare the figures with 2015-16. The revised growth rate for 2016-17 is projected to be 7.1 per cent, compared to 7.9 per cent for 2015-16. The new measure for growth rate, the Gross Value Added (GVA) figure at constant prices shows that the projected growth rate for 2016-17 will be 6.7 per cent compared to the GVA growth rate of 7.8 per cent in 2015-16. It can once again be argued that this has nothing to do with demonetisation.

The other crucial indicators also show that the economy is not really picking up, demonetisation or no demonetisation. The mining and quarrying sector is set to grow at a GVA of 1.3 per cent in 2016-17 compared to 12.3 per cent in 2015-16. In the manufacturing sector, the estimated GVA growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.7 per cent compared to the 2015-16 growth rate of 10.6 per cent. The wholesale price index (WPI) for manufactured has moved from the negative territory of – (1.3) per cent in April-December 2015-16 to 2.3 per cent in April-December 2016-17.

The only positive growth figures, apart from agriculture, are in electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, where a 6.6 per cent growth rate is expected for 2016-17 compared to the 5.1 per cent growth rate figure for 2015-16.  The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figure for electricity for April-December 2016-17 is 5.1 per cent compared to 4.5 per cent for April-December 2015-16.

Construction, one of the drivers of growth, is expected to grow at GVA rate of 3.1 per cent in 2016-17 compared to 2.8 per cent in 2015-16. Cement consumption during April-December 2016-17 has increased by 2.8 per cent, and steel consumption by 3.3 per cent. It can be seen that there is no great spurt in growth as such.

In the service sector, comprising trade, hotels, transport and communication as well as broadcasting, the GVA growth rate for 2016-17 is expected to be 7.3 per cent compared to 10.7 per cent in 2015-16. The figure of 10.7 per cent growth in the sales tax collection in the states’ accounts between April-December 2016-17 is neither here nor there.

Growth in financial, insurance, real estate and other professional services is estimated to grow at the GVA basic prices (2011-12) by 6.5 per cent compared to 10.8 per cent growth rate in 2015-16.

The only area where there has been a spurt in growth in government spending (public administration, defence and other services) where it is expected to grow at 11.2 per cent in 2016-17 compared to 6.9 per cent in 2015-16.

The difference in growth rates in Q3 of 2016-17 compared to Q3 of 2015-16, especially in case of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Government Final Capital Formation (GFCF) for Q3 in 2015-16 and 2016-17, is interesting but not puzzling. The PFCE in Q3 of 2016-17 stood at 58.7 per cent compared to 57.1 per cent in 2015-16, and the GFCF for Q 3 in 2016-17 is 29.1 per cent and in Q3 of 2015-16 it stood at 30.0 per cent.

The expectation that the effects of demonetisation should have been conspicuously evident in the Q3 figures is slightly misplaced. Demonetisation came into effect on November 9, 2016 and as Q3 is concerned its effects till December 31, 2016 are to be measured. But remember that Q3 begins on October 1, 2016, and a lot of expenditure would have occurred in the festival month of October, and whatever the downward slide in the second half of Q3 will not be too visible. We need weekly measures between November 9 and December 31, 2016, to get a measure of the effects of demonetisation.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Google restores delisted Indian apps after government intervention

Google on Saturday restored all Indian apps it had removed.

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Google has started to restore all the delisted Indian mobile apps on Play Store agian, which they had removed due to a disagreement over service fees. After a discussion between company representatives and IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, the decision was made, according to sources.

The step was taken in response to Vaishnaw’s strong statement in which he said that it is not allowed for apps to be removed from the Google Play Store. The minister had said, India is very clear, our policy is very clear…our startups will get the protection that they need.

Vaishnaw  continued saying that he has already given Google a call. They will be speaking with the app developers who were delisted this week. This is not acceptable. The minister said this kind of delisting cannot be permitted.

Ten Indian companies’ apps were banned by Google on Friday, causing outrage in one of its fastest-growing markets. With 94% of phones running on its Android platform, Google holds a large portion of the Indian market. Popular names like Naukri and Bharatmatrimony were on the list.

The main point of contention is Google’s in-app purchase fees, which range from 11% to 26%. Indian startups have long opposed the US tech giant’s actions, believing them to be unfair.

The founder of Bharat Matrimony, Christian Matrimony, Muslim Matrimony, and Jodii, Matrimony.com, expressed shock at the matchmaking apps’ removal from the Google Play Store.

Shaadi. Com CEO Anupam Mittal described it as a dark day for India’s internet, highlighting the possible broad effects on matchmaking services. He also called Google an evil.

While, Kuku FM Co-founder Vinod Kumar Meena in a statement had said that Google was behaving like a monopoly.

Meanwhile, Google temporarily withdrew the famous Indian payments app Paytm from the Play Store in 2020, claiming a few policy infractions. Due to this decision, the founder of the company as well as the larger startup community came together to build their own app stores and file lawsuits against Google.

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Anant Ambani says he is 100% lucky to get Radhika Merchant in his life

Anant Ambani said he was grateful to get Radhika as his life partner. He said he is 100% lucky to get Radhika Merchant in his life. He said every day he is falling more and more in love with her. He added although he had known Radhika for the last 7 years, it felt he had met her only yesterday. He thanked Radhika for everything.

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Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant’s grand three-day wedding celebrations began with a glamorous cocktail night on Friday in Jamnagar. During the celebrations, Anant Ambani also gave a speech wherein he thanked his late grandfather Dhirubhai Ambani and grandmother Kokilaben Ambani for inspiring him. Anant Ambani said he was grateful to get Radhika as his life partner. He said he is 100% lucky to get Radhika Merchant in his life. He said every day he is falling more and more in love with her.

He expressed his gratitude to his mother for pulling together the lavish three-day wedding celebrations in Jamnagar. Anant thanked his mother for all she had done. He said all the arrangements had been done by his mother and nobody else. He added his mother had gone all out and she had worked 18-19 hours a day and he was extremely grateful to her.

He also thanked all the guests who were present there at the pre-wedding celebrations. He said everyone had made it to Jamnagar to make him and Radhika feel special. He said both of them were honored and humbled to have all of them present there. Anant said he was sorry if they had caused an inconvenience to anyone. He asked for forgiveness. He hoped everyone is going to enjoy the coming three days. He also thanked his mother, father, sister, brother, his sister-law and his brother in-law for making this event memorable.

Anant said everyone has been sleeping for less than 3 hours a day for the last 2-3 months and he was very happy to share this joy with everyone. The youngest Ambani talked about his personal struggles and how his parents had always supported him. He further added his life had not been entirely a bed of roses. He said he had also experienced the pain of thorns. He said he had faced many health crises.

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Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg shares pictures from 2nd day of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant pre-wedding celebrations

Zuckerberg shared pictures from the 2nd day of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant’s pre-wedding celebrations. In the photograph Mark Zuckerberg can be seen along with his wife Priscilla Chan. The couple is exuding happiness as they prepare for the event. He captioned the picture it is getting wild out here.

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Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg and wife Priscilla Chan joined the star- studded pre-wedding celebrations of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant in Jamnagar on Friday. The event was attended by many prominent figures from different fields. Zuckerberg took to his Instagram handle congratulated the couple and said he loved Indian weddings.

Zuckerberg shared pictures from the 2nd day of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant’s pre-wedding celebrations. In the photograph Mark Zuckerberg can be seen along with his wife Priscilla Chan. The couple is exuding happiness as they prepare for the event. He captioned the picture it is getting wild out here.

The theme of the opening day of the pre-wedding celebrations was Evening in Everland as the guests wore cocktail attire. The first day of the grand celebrations elevated the expectations of the guests for the following days. The theme of the 2nd day of the pre-wedding bash is known as a Walk on the Wildside and the guests can be seen in Jungle Fever attire.

Zuckerberg has opted for an animal print shirt with white trousers, Chan is complementing his look in a strappy one piece in black and golden. The Jungle theme is aligned to Vantara, Reliance’s animal welfare initiative undertaken and launched by Anant Ambani a few days back.

International pop star Rihana electrified the pre wedding celebrations on Friday with an amazing performance, marking her debut appearance in India. The chart topping artist engaged the audience with performances of her iconic hits which included Pour it Up, Work and Diamonds.

Zuckerberg graced the opening day, wearing a black-on-black firefly blazer and shoes from Alexander McQueen while his wife Priscilla wore a black gown with gold flower details and other accessories such as dainty chain bracelet, gold necklace and stud earrings. Mark Zuckerberg and wife Priscilla Chan are one of the Power couples invited from the global business community for the festivities currently underway at Jamnagar.

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