Amid heightened tensions in South Asia following the devastating terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam region that killed 26 civilians, the United States has urged India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made separate calls to Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, emphasizing the need for cooperation and regional stability.

US calls for collaborative counter-terrorism approach

Rubio expressed deep sorrow over the loss of lives in the Pahalgam attack, labeling it as “unconscionable,” and conveyed his solidarity with India. During his conversation with Jaishankar, he reiterated Washington’s commitment to combat terrorism in partnership with New Delhi. However, he also urged India to proceed with caution, especially in light of the accusation that Pakistan-backed elements were responsible for the attack.

Jaishankar, after the call, took to social media platform X, affirming that those behind the attack—whether perpetrators, planners, or backers—must face justice.

In his dialogue with Prime Minister Sharif, the US Secretary of State asked Pakistan to publicly condemn the April 22 attack and to cooperate fully with the investigation. He urged the resumption of direct communications between the two nations to prevent further deterioration of ties.

India-Pakistan ties sour post-attack

The terror outfit The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam assault. India has firmly blamed Pakistan, prompting swift diplomatic and administrative actions, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and revocation of Pakistani visas. The Wagah-Attari border has also been sealed.

In response, Islamabad has denied involvement and called for a neutral investigation. It also retaliated by closing its airspace to Indian carriers and engaging in border shelling. Pakistan’s defence ministry has warned of an impending Indian military operation, escalating fears of direct conflict.

Strategic ties influence US stance

While the US has expressed open support for India, including condemnations from President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, it has refrained from criticising Pakistan directly. Experts note that India remains crucial to US Indo-Pacific strategy amid growing concerns over China, even as Pakistan’s relevance has declined post the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced on Wednesday, April 30, that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend the 80th anniversary celebrations of Victory Day in Moscow next month.

Instead, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will represent India at the commemorative events marking the Allied victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

“India will be represented by Defence Minister Singh, not at the highest level,” Peskov stated, confirming that India had informed Russia of the decision well in advance. A source elaborated, “An invitation was extended to Prime Minister Modi for the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, but we conveyed that Minister Singh would attend on India’s behalf.”

Modi, who visited Russia twice in 2024 for an annual summit with President Vladimir Putin and the BRICS Summit in Kazan, is not expected to travel for the May 9 event. Meanwhile, Putin is slated to visit India later this year for the annual India-Russia summit, maintaining the tradition of high-level bilateral engagements.

The Moscow parade, held annually at Red Square, will see significant international participation, with Chinese President Xi Jinping confirming his attendance. Russia is preparing to host around 20 foreign leaders for the milestone anniversary.

In a statement reported by Russia’s state-run news agency on Tuesday, Putin reflected on the historical significance of the occasion: “On the Volga’s banks, our forces stopped and defeated the enemy, dealing a critical blow to the Nazi war machine. This turning point paved the way to Berlin and the Great Victory, which we will honor solemnly on May 9.”

Russia has also declared a ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8 to 10 to observe Victory Day, a gesture underscoring the event’s importance. The Victory Day celebrations, a major national event, commemorate the Soviet Union’s pivotal role in defeating Nazi Germany, culminating in the surrender on May 9, 1945.

Mark Carney’s ascension to the role of Canada’s Prime Minister has brought renewed optimism for a diplomatic thaw between New Delhi and Ottawa, a relationship that faced serious setbacks under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Carney, a former central banker and political novice, made it clear during his campaign that rebuilding bilateral ties with India would be among his foreign policy priorities.

Carney signals intent to revive ties

In his pre-election statements, Carney emphasised Canada’s need to diversify trade partnerships with nations that share democratic values—explicitly naming India. He said, “There are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India. If I am Prime Minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that.”

This approach marks a significant departure from the Trudeau administration’s strained relations with India, especially following the high-profile controversy in 2023 involving the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The diplomatic crisis escalated with the expulsion of six Indian diplomats and reciprocal steps from India, effectively freezing high-level exchanges and trade talks.

The road to reconciliation

Under Trudeau, India frequently accused Canada of harbouring extremist elements within its Sikh diaspora. The Indian government viewed this as a threat to its sovereignty, particularly amid rising incidents of pro-Khalistan demonstrations abroad.

Mark Carney, however, has taken a more pragmatic view, underlining the importance of restoring diplomatic balance and mutual respect. His vision of Canadian sovereignty also extends to redefining international alliances, with a push toward reducing dependency on its largest neighbour—the United States—and strengthening partnerships like the one with India.

Economic and educational prospects

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two nations, stalled due to the diplomatic fallout, may see a revival under Carney’s leadership. In 2023, services trade between India and Canada was valued at CAD 13.49 billion. Both countries had been exploring collaboration in emerging sectors like AI, green energy, and education.

India continues to be one of the largest contributors to Canada’s immigrant population, with nearly 2.8 million people of Indian origin living in the country. Carney is likely to continue the liberal immigration policies, particularly benefiting Indian students and professionals. Over 427,000 Indian students currently study in Canada, playing a crucial role in its economy and labour force.

A cautious but hopeful turn

Carney’s victory offers both countries a diplomatic opportunity to reset a troubled chapter. With mutual interests in economic growth, technological advancement, and geopolitical balance, the groundwork is being laid for a more collaborative future.