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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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Thick smog engulfs Delhi, flights and trains delayed as air quality slips to very poor

Delhi remained under a thick smog cover as air quality dipped into the very poor category, causing delays in flights and train services due to low visibility.

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A dense blanket of smog covered Delhi on Saturday morning, pushing air quality into the ‘very poor’ category and disrupting flight and train operations across the national capital and adjoining areas. Reduced visibility due to smog led to delays in air and rail traffic, while authorities warned that pollution levels could worsen further in the coming days.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) in Delhi was recorded at 380, placing it in the ‘very poor’ bracket. Visuals from Bhairav Marg near Pragati Maidan showed motorists using headlights during early hours, as visibility remained low. At around 7 am, the AQI at this location stood at 433.

Nearly half of Delhi’s air quality monitoring stations reported ‘severe’ pollution levels. Anand Vihar recorded an AQI of 428 with PM2.5 as the dominant pollutant, while Jahangirpuri reported an AQI of 425.

Transport services hit by low visibility

Flight operations at Delhi airport were impacted due to low visibility conditions. The airport issued an advisory asking passengers to check with their respective airlines for updated flight information, as low visibility procedures were in place. Runway visibility was reported to be between 800 and 1,200 metres.

Live flight tracking data showed multiple flights running behind schedule. One airline also warned passengers about possible disruptions at several airports in northern and eastern India, including Delhi, due to dense fog conditions. Travellers were advised to verify flight status before heading to the airport, with options offered on select flights to reschedule or seek refunds without additional charges.

Rail services were also affected, with more than 30 trains running late by an average of three to four hours. Some long-distance trains reported delays of over six to eight hours, causing inconvenience to passengers travelling to and from the capital.

Air quality likely to worsen

The weather department had earlier forecast dense to very dense fog at isolated places over Delhi and several parts of north and central India. According to the Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi, pollution levels are expected to remain in the ‘very poor’ category on Saturday and may slip into the ‘severe’ category on Sunday and Monday. In view of the deteriorating conditions, an ‘orange’ alert has been issued for Saturday.

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PM Modi inaugurates India’s first nature-themed airport terminal in Assam

Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurates the new nature-themed terminal at Guwahati airport, the largest in Northeast India, built around bamboo, orchids and regional heritage.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to inaugurate the new terminal building of Lokapriya Gopinath Bordoloi International (LGBI) Airport in Guwahati today, marking a major milestone for aviation infrastructure in the Northeast. Built at an estimated cost of around Rs 4,000 crore, the facility is being projected as the largest airport terminal in the region and a key boost to connectivity, tourism and economic activity in Assam.

The Prime Minister is scheduled to arrive in Guwahati around 3 pm as part of his two-day visit to the state.

Northeast’s largest airport terminal takes shape in Guwahati

The newly constructed terminal is nearly seven times larger than the existing one and has been designed to cater to the region’s rapidly growing air traffic. Once fully operational, it is expected to handle up to 13.1 million passengers annually by 2032.

Officials said the terminal is planned as a regional connectivity hub, with a focus on strengthening air links between India and Southeast Asia. The airport will be capable of handling up to 34 air traffic movements per hour, the highest capacity among airports in the Northeast. The facility will also be equipped with one of the most advanced Instrument Landing Systems to support safer and more efficient operations.

Nature-inspired design rooted in Assam’s identity

What sets the Guwahati terminal apart is its distinctive nature-themed architecture. Conceptualised under the theme “Bamboo Orchids”, it is being described as India’s first airport terminal inspired entirely by natural and cultural elements.

The interiors draw from the landscapes of Northeast India, with design elements reflecting indigenous orchids, locally known as Kopou Phool, and the flow of the Brahmaputra river. The terminal incorporates more than 2,000 species of plants, includes a dedicated zone inspired by Kaziranga National Park, and features artefacts representing Majuli Island.

A key architectural highlight is the expansive bamboo vault, created using around 140 metric tonnes of locally sourced bamboo. The space has been envisioned as a multifunctional cultural centre aimed at encouraging community interaction and showcasing the region’s heritage. Design elements such as japi motifs, the iconic rhino symbol and 57 orchid-inspired columns further reinforce the cultural narrative.

Arriving passengers will also experience a unique “Sky Forest”, featuring nearly one lakh plants of indigenous species, designed to create an immersive forest-like ambience within the terminal.

Focus on digital integration and passenger convenience

Spread over nearly 1.4 lakh square metres, the integrated new terminal has been designed to handle around 1.3 crore passengers annually. It is supported by significant upgrades to the runway, airfield systems, aprons and taxiways.

The terminal places strong emphasis on digital integration, with 14 entry points, including four DigiYatra gates, aimed at easing passenger movement. Facilities such as full-body scanners for non-intrusive security checks, automated baggage handling systems, fast-track immigration and AI-driven airport operations have been incorporated to ensure smoother travel experiences.

Other engagements during PM Modi’s Assam visit

During his two-day stay, the Prime Minister will also lay foundation stones for multiple development projects and address public gatherings. He is scheduled to visit the Swahid Smarak Kshetra to pay tribute to the martyrs of the historic Assam Movement.

Later in the day, PM Modi will perform the bhoomipujan for a new brownfield Ammonia-Urea Fertiliser Project at Namrup in Dibrugarh district, within the existing premises of the Brahmaputra Valley Fertiliser Corporation Limited.

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Assam train accident: Eight elephants killed after Rajdhani Express derailment in Hojai

Eight elephants were killed after the Rajdhani Express collided with a herd in Assam’s Hojai district, causing multiple coaches to derail and disrupting train services.

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At least eight elephants were killed and a calf was injured after a herd collided with the Sairang–New Delhi Rajdhani Express in Assam’s Hojai district, leading to the derailment of the locomotive and five coaches early Saturday. Railway officials confirmed that no passengers were injured in the incident.

Forest department officials said the collision occurred when the New Delhi-bound Rajdhani Express struck a herd of elephants on the tracks. The impact caused multiple coaches to derail, disrupting rail traffic on the busy route connecting the Northeast with the national capital.

Train services hit, passengers shifted to other coaches

Following the derailment, rail movement towards Upper Assam and other parts of the Northeast was affected due to damaged coaches and elephant remains scattered on the tracks. Accident relief trains and senior railway officials rushed to the site to restore services.

Passengers travelling in the affected coaches were temporarily accommodated in vacant berths in other coaches of the same train. Officials said that once the train reaches Guwahati, additional coaches will be attached to ensure all passengers can continue their journey.

Collision occurred outside designated elephant corridor

According to officials, the accident took place at a location that is not marked as a designated elephant corridor. The loco pilot reportedly applied emergency brakes after spotting the herd on the tracks, but the elephants ran into the train, resulting in the collision and derailment.

Forest authorities confirmed that eight elephants died on the spot, while one injured calf was rescued. Local residents said the herd consisted of around eight elephants at the time of the accident.

Elephant deaths in train accidents remain a concern

The incident comes amid continued concerns over wildlife deaths on railway tracks. Data shared by the Environment Ministry in Parliament earlier showed that at least 79 elephants have died in train collisions across India over the past five years, based on reports from states and Union Territories.

The ministry has said that several preventive steps are being taken in coordination with the Railways, including speed restrictions in elephant habitats, use of sensor-based detection systems, and construction of underpasses, ramps and fencing at vulnerable locations. Guidelines and capacity-building programmes have also been introduced to reduce human-animal conflict along railway lines.

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