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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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Jammu & Kashmir: 5 soldiers killed after Army vehicle plunges into gorge in Poonch

“Today at around 17:40 hrs (5.40 pm), an Army vehicle of 11 Maratha Light Infantry, which was on its way from from Nilam headquarters to Balnoi Ghora Post along the LoC, met with an accident near Ghora Post,” said officials.

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Five soldiers lost their lives and several others were injured when an Army vehicle veered off the road and fell into a deep gorge in the Balnoi area of Mendhar, Poonch district, Jammu and Kashmir, on Tuesday, according to officials.

The incident occurred as the vehicle, part of the 11 Madras Light Infantry (11 MLI), was traveling from Nilam Headquarters to Balnoi Ghora Post. Reports indicate that the vehicle plunged approximately 350 feet into a steep gorge near its destination.

Upon learning of the accident, the Quick Reaction Team from 11 MLI rapidly mobilized to the scene to initiate rescue operations. The injured personnel received immediate medical attention, and efforts are currently underway to evacuate them for further treatment.

In a message on X, the White Knight Corps expressed their deep condolences for the tragic loss of five courageous soldiers, stating, “All ranks of #WhiteKnightCorps extend their deepest condolences on the tragic loss of five brave soldiers in a vehicle accident during operational duty in the #Poonch sector. Rescue operations are ongoing, and the injured personnel are receiving medical care.”

“Today at around 17:40 hrs (5.40 pm), an Army vehicle of 11 Maratha Light Infantry, which was on its way from from Nilam headquarters to Balnoi Ghora Post along the LoC, met with an accident near Ghora Post,” said officials.

This incident follows a similar accident last month, where one Army personnel died and another was injured when their vehicle skidded off the road and fell into a gorge in Rajouri district, Jammu and Kashmir. This crash, which occurred on November 4 near Badog village in Kalakote, resulted in Naik Badri Lal and Sepoy Jai Prakash suffering critical injuries; Lal ultimately succumbed to his injuries while in treatment.

On November 2, another tragedy struck when a vehicle skidded off a hilly road in Reasi district, claiming the lives of a woman and her 10-month-old son, while three others sustained serious injuries.

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Over 350 Himachal Pradesh roads shut amid snowfall, 4 dead

Meanwhile, post-monsoon rainfall from October 1 to December 24 has shown a deficit of 92% of the normal level of 70.4 mm.

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In Himachal Pradesh, a significant snowfall in the past 24 hours has resulted in four fatalities and the shutdown of approximately 700 electric transformers along with over 350 roads, including three national highways. This has left around 500 vehicles stranded, among which are more than 300 buses.

The snowfall, which began yesterday, has been recorded in various districts such as Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, as well as the higher elevations of Shimla, Kullu, Mandi, Chamba, and Sirmaur.

On a positive note, the situation has attracted a large number of tourists heading to Shimla and nearby areas in hopes of enjoying a white Christmas. According to MK Seth, president of the Shimla Hotel and Tourism Stakeholders’ Association, hotel occupancy in the historic town has exceeded 70%, 30% higher than usual.

Tragically, four individuals lost their lives in accidents over the last day, with several others injured due to vehicles skidding in hazardous conditions. Key national highways connecting Attari to Leh, Sanj to Aut in Kullu, and Khab Sangam in Kinnaur to Gramphoo in Lahaul and Spiti are currently blocked.

Among the affected areas, Shimla has the highest number of closed roads, totaling 89, followed by Kinnaur with 44 and Mandi with 25. The State Emergency Operation Centre reported that 683 transformers are inactive, leaving some regions without electricity.

Authorities have urged tourists to follow the advice of district officials and police, heed local guidance, and avoid driving on snowy roads. Khadrala experienced the highest snowfall, receiving 24 cm, followed by Sangla with 16.5 cm, and Shillaro at 15.3 cm. Other areas such as Chopal and Jubbal recorded 15 cm each, while Kalpa received 13.7 cm, Nichar 10 cm, Shimla 7 cm, Pooh 6 cm, and Jot 5 cm.

Manali and Dalhousie suburbs also saw snowfall since Monday, with light rain experienced in parts of the mid and lower hills. An intense cold wave is affecting the lower hills of Mandi, while cold conditions are noted in Una and Chamba.

The Meteorological Office reported dense, moderate, and shallow fog in Bilaspur, Sundernagar, and Mandi. An ‘orange’ warning has been issued for severe cold in Bilaspur, Una, Hamirpur, and Mandi, and a ‘yellow’ warning for dense fog in areas around the Bhakra dam reservoir and Balh Valley in Mandi until Thursday.

The coldest recorded temperature was in Kukumseri, Lahaul and Spiti, at minus 6.9 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, post-monsoon rainfall from October 1 to December 24 has shown a deficit of 92% of the normal level of 70.4 mm.

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP 4 revoked in capital, NCR as air quality improves

The GRAP 4 measures were implemented in Delhi after the air quality index (AQI) hit alarming levels on 16th December 2024

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP 4 revoked in capital, NCR as air quality improves

The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) today revoked Stage 4 of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). Nonetheless, measures under stages 1, 2, and 3 will remain in force to manage pollution levels. The GRAP 4 measures have been in effect in the entire NCR since December 16 after deterioration in air quality. 

This move follows after the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) reported an Air Quality Index (AQI) of 401 at 8 AM. The AQI on Monday fell into the severe category, measuring 403 at 7 am. Reportedly, AQI in several areas of the national capital was also recorded as ‘severe.’

Reports said, Anand Vihar recorded an AQI at 439, 456 at Ashok Vihar, 473 at Bawana, 406 at CRRI Mathura Road and 430 at Narela. Notably, an AQI between 0-50 is considered good, 51-100 is satisfactory, 101-200 is moderate, 201-300 is poor, 301-400 is very poor, and 401-500 is severe.

The GRAP 4 measures were implemented in Delhi after the air quality index (AQI) hit alarming levels on 16th December 2024. The Air Quality Index breached the 350 mark during the day, prompting the GRAP Sub-Committee to implement Stage-III measures. On the same day, by 10 PM, the AQI soared to 401, surpassing the severe plus category threshold. According to the Supreme Court instructions, Stage-IV measures were immediately introduced to tackle the crisis.

The apex court had earlier mandated precautionary measures, requiring Stage-III actions for AQI above 350 and Stage-IV for AQI exceeding 400. These directions were reiterated on 5th, 12th, and 19th December 2024, underlining the urgency to address Delhi’s air pollution.

As Delhi continues to battle hazardous air quality, the intensified measures under GRAP Stages I, II, and III will focus on curbing pollution sources and improving monitoring. Furthermore, residents are urged to remain cautious and adhere to guidelines issued by the authorities to mitigate the impact of air pollution on health and daily life.

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