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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

Bihar news

Mokama shootout case: Former Bihar MLA Anant Singh surrenders, sent to jail

Singh’s supporters retaliated to the initial attack, leading to the intense exchange of gunfire that gripped the area. The incident underscores the deep-seated power struggles and lawlessness that persist in certain parts of Bihar.

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Former Bihar MLA Anant Singh surrendered to a Barh court on Friday, facing charges related to a shootout on the outskirts of Patna. The incident, which occurred Wednesday evening, involved an alleged attack on Singh’s convoy by the notorious Sonu-Monu gang. The ensuing exchange of gunfire, according to eyewitness accounts, involved a significant volume of shots – estimates ranging from 60 to 70 rounds, though police reported a lower figure of 16-17.

Remarkably, Singh escaped unharmed. Following his surrender, he was remanded to Beur jail. Patna Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Awkash Kumar confirmed the surrender and the filing of three separate FIRs concerning the incident.

The shootout unfolded amidst a backdrop of escalating tensions in Mokama, a region with a history of violent crime and political rivalry. The involvement of the Sonu-Monu gang, known for its criminal activities, added a layer of complexity to the already volatile situation.

Singh’s supporters retaliated to the initial attack, leading to the intense exchange of gunfire that gripped the area. The incident underscores the deep-seated power struggles and lawlessness that persist in certain parts of Bihar.

Adding to the escalating tension, another shooting incident was reported on Friday in Hamza village, under the jurisdiction of Panchmahal police station in Mokama. Three spent cartridges were found near Mukesh Singh’s house, prompting an immediate investigation.

Senior police officials were deployed to the scene to assess the situation and gather evidence. The timing and location of this second incident suggest a possible connection to the previous day’s events, raising concerns about further escalation of violence.

Police have apprehended two suspects, Sonu and Roushan, in connection with Wednesday’s shooting. Investigations suggest that the Sonu-Monu gang specifically targeted Mukesh Singh, a former associate of the gang who had allegedly sought protection and assistance from Anant Singh. This suggests a complex network of allegiances and betrayals within the criminal underworld of Mokama.

Anant Singh, a controversial figure with a history of both political success and criminal accusations, has been a prominent figure in Mokama’s political landscape for years. His past includes a conviction in 2020 related to the recovery of an AK-47 rifle and other weapons from his ancestral home, resulting in his disqualification from the assembly.

However, he was acquitted of these charges in August 2024. His wife, a former MLA, recently shifted her political allegiance from the RJD to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), further complicating the political dynamics of the region.

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Bollywood news

FIR filed against Shreyas Talpade, Alok Nath, 11 others in cheating case in Haryana

The case has sent ripples through the Bollywood industry, casting a shadow over the careers of both actors. While the details of their alleged involvement remain under investigation, the allegations raise serious questions about their conduct and potential complicity in a scheme that defrauded numerous investors.

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Bollywood actors Shreyas Talpade and Alok Nath find themselves embroiled in a significant legal controversy, named as accused in a cheating and breach of trust case registered at the Murthal police station in Sonipat, Haryana.

The First Information Report (FIR), filed on January 22, lists the two prominent actors among thirteen individuals charged under Sections 316 (2), 318 (2), and 318 (4) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita. These charges encompass criminal breach of trust, cheating, and the fraudulent transfer of property.

The complainant, Sonipat resident Vipul Antil, levelled accusations against the Human Welfare Credit Cooperative Society, registered in Indore under the Multi-State Cooperative Societies Act of 2002. Antil alleges that the society, active across multiple states, including Haryana, since September 16th, 2016, lured investors with promises of exorbitant returns on fixed deposits (FDs) and recurring deposits (RDs).

The society employed a multi-level marketing strategy, incentivizing agents to recruit additional investors, creating a pyramid scheme structure that ultimately led to widespread financial losses.

Ajeet Singh, the Additional Commissioner of Police (ACP) in Murthal, confirmed the inclusion of Talpade and Nath’s names in the list of accused, based on statements provided by the complainant. Singh clarified that the primary focus of the investigation remains the alleged fraudulent activities of the cooperative society, and the police are currently working to determine the specific roles, if any, played by Talpade and Nath in the alleged scheme. The investigation will delve into the extent of their involvement and whether they directly benefited from the alleged fraudulent activities.

The case has sent ripples through the Bollywood industry, casting a shadow over the careers of both actors. While the details of their alleged involvement remain under investigation, the allegations raise serious questions about their conduct and potential complicity in a scheme that defrauded numerous investors.

Shreyas Talpade’s most recent cinematic appearance was in Kangana Ranaut’s directorial debut, Emergency, a historical drama set during India’s tumultuous Emergency period from 1975 to 1977. Alok Nath, a veteran Bollywood actor, boasts a prolific career spanning over three decades and encompassing over 300 films, establishing him as a familiar face in Indian cinema. The unfolding investigation will determine the extent of their involvement in this complex financial crime and the consequences they may face.

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India News

BPSC results out: Aspirants react as controversy, protests over paper leak persist

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BPSC aspirants ask Prashant Kishore to step back from protest site, political strategist-turned-politician responds

The Bihar Public Service Commission (BPSC) declared the results for the 70th Combined Competitive Exam (CCE) on January 23, 2025. In the hours following the announcement, reactions to the results and the subsequent developments have continued to unfold, with protests, legal challenges, and debates surrounding the exam process showing no sign of abating.

21,581 candidates clear, but tension persists

While 21,581 candidates cleared the preliminary exam, questions remain about the legitimacy of the results. Legal challenges have already been initiated, with petitions filed in the Patna High Court questioning the integrity of the examination process, particularly regarding the status of those who were debarred due to alleged malpractice. The court’s involvement could still alter the final list of successful candidates.

Political impact and ongoing reactions

The protests have also drawn political figures into the fray. Prashant Kishor, leader of the Jan Suraj Party, joined the demonstrations and went on an indefinite hunger strike starting January 2, showing solidarity with the aspirants. His involvement and calls for action have added a political dimension to the controversy, which is now under the scrutiny of Bihar’s government.

Bihar Governor Arif Mohammad Khan recently met with a delegation of aspirants to hear their grievances and assured them that steps would be taken to address their concerns. The Governor also appealed to Prashant Kishor to end his fast, citing health concerns.

Looking ahead: What’s next for the 21,581 pass candidates?

For the candidates who have successfully passed the prelims, the main examination is the next step. However, the future of the recruitment process remains uncertain, with protests, petitions, and public calls for reforms still ongoing. The uncertainty surrounding the exam’s integrity and the lack of clarity on future steps means that the exam’s aftermath will likely continue to dominate discussions.

As the BPSC navigates the fallout from this highly contentious exam, it faces increasing pressure to restore public trust and ensure that future recruitment processes are conducted with the highest standards of fairness and transparency.

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