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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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BJP and TMC workers clash in Kolkata ahead of PM rally

Supporters of BJP and TMC clashed in central Kolkata near Girish Park shortly before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally at Brigade Parade Ground.

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BJP TMC workers clash

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the All India Trinamool Congress clashed in central Kolkata on Saturday morning ahead of a rally scheduled to be addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi later in the day.

The confrontation took place near Girish Park, roughly five kilometres from the Brigade Parade Ground where the prime minister is expected to address supporters.

Eyewitnesses reported that members from both political groups raised slogans and threw stones at each other during the confrontation. The clash created tension in the area as supporters were moving towards the rally venue.

According to BJP supporters, stones were allegedly thrown at them without provocation while they were heading towards the rally. One party activist told a Bengali news channel that the group was targeted suddenly and also faced verbal abuse.

However, local TMC workers rejected the allegations. They claimed that BJP supporters initiated the confrontation by hurling abuses and throwing stones first.

TMC supporters also alleged that stones were thrown towards the residence of local party leaders during the incident.

Police personnel were quickly deployed to the spot to control the situation and prevent further escalation. A large contingent of security forces intervened to restore order in the area.

The clash occurred about half an hour before the prime minister’s scheduled address at the Brigade Parade Ground. The rally marks the conclusion of the BJP’s statewide ‘Parivartan Yatra’ ahead of the upcoming assembly elections in West Bengal.

During his visit, the prime minister is also expected to unveil and lay foundation stones for development projects valued at more than Rs 18,000 crore in the state.

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Massive fire destroys around 80 shanties in west Delhi, hundreds left homeless

A massive blaze swept through a slum cluster in west Delhi’s Matiala village, destroying around 80 shanties and leaving hundreds of migrant families homeless overnight.

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A massive overnight fire destroyed around 80 shanties in west Delhi, leaving hundreds of migrant families homeless after flames swept through a large slum settlement near Uttam Nagar.

The incident took place late on the night of March 11 at the Machhli Mandi shanty cluster in Matiala village. The blaze spread rapidly across nearly four acres, reducing homes made of bamboo, tarpaulin and plastic sheets to ashes within hours.

According to Delhi Police, the affected families were largely migrant workers from Bihar who earn their livelihood as daily-wage labourers and ragpickers. Though no deaths were reported, residents lost most of their belongings including clothes, utensils, food supplies and documents.

Firefighters battle flames through the night

The Delhi Fire Service deployed 23 fire tenders to control the blaze. Firefighters continued operations throughout the night and managed to bring the flames under control at around 3 am on Thursday. Cooling operations continued afterward to prevent the fire from reigniting.

Thick grey ash and burnt debris covered large parts of the area after the fire. Charred bamboo frames, melted plastic sheets and twisted tin roofs were scattered across the ground.

Some residents claimed they saw unidentified people arrive on motorcycles and set several huts on fire before fleeing. Authorities have not confirmed this allegation.

Authorities cite disputed land and possible waste burning

District Magistrate Mekala Chaitanya visited the site and said the land has been under dispute for a long time.

He stated that the occupants had been issued an evacuation notice on March 7, with the night of the fire marking the final deadline to vacate the area.

An investigation is underway to determine the exact cause of the fire. The district administration suggested that the blaze may have started due to ragpickers burning waste at night, a practice commonly reported in the area.

Officials also noted that a similar fire incident had occurred earlier this month at the same location after illegal garbage dumping, which required eight fire tenders to extinguish.

Police say evacuation prevented casualties

Deputy Commissioner of Police (Dwarka) Kushal Pal Singh said police teams helped evacuate residents before the fire intensified.

He said the temporary structures were made from highly flammable materials, which allowed the fire to spread quickly. However, swift action by police and firefighters ensured that no lives were lost.

Families struggle after losing everything

Residents said they are now struggling to survive without basic necessities.

Rani Devi, a mother of three, said her family had no food, milk or drinking water after the fire destroyed their home and belongings. She added that many families were now sleeping amid the burnt debris.

A student, Rahul Kumar, whose board examinations are scheduled to begin soon, said his textbooks, notebooks and school uniform were all destroyed in the blaze.

Another resident, 42-year-old Rajesh Paswan, who migrated from Bihar over a decade ago and works as a ragpicker, said the fire wiped out everything his family owned overnight.

Demand for compensation and rehabilitation

AAP leader Ramesh Matitala met affected families and called for immediate compensation and rehabilitation.

He said the families should be provided financial assistance and relocated to a safer place, adding that authorities must ensure accountability if negligence or foul play is found in the investigation.

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Mamata Banerjee questions PM Modi’s respect for President Murmu using 2024 photograph

Mamata Banerjee criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi using a 2024 photograph during a rally as political tensions grow over President Droupadi Murmu’s visit to West Bengal.

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West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has intensified her attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi amid a growing dispute over President Droupadi Murmu’s recent visit to the state.

Speaking at a public rally, Banerjee referred to a photograph from March 2024 that shows the President standing while the Prime Minister is seated during a meeting with veteran leader Lal Krishna Advani. The Trinamool Congress leader questioned the government’s claims about respecting the office of the President.

According to a video shared by the Trinamool Congress, two party leaders displayed the photograph while Banerjee addressed the gathering. She argued that while leaders often speak about honouring the President’s office, such visual moments raise questions about whether that respect is truly reflected in conduct.

The photograph referenced by Banerjee was taken on March 31, 2024, when President Murmu and Prime Minister Modi visited Advani to present him with the Bharat Ratna.

Banerjee said the image showed the President standing while the Prime Minister remained seated. She asked whether the government truly respected the country’s first tribal woman President, adding that the picture demonstrated “who respects and who does not”.

President’s visit to Bengal triggers controversy

The political exchange began after President Murmu visited West Bengal on Saturday to attend the ninth International Santal Conference in Darjeeling.

While addressing the event, the President publicly noted that neither the chief minister nor other state ministers were present to receive her. She said that usually the chief minister welcomes the President during such visits but that did not happen in this case.

Murmu added that Banerjee is like a “younger sister” to her and said she did not know whether the chief minister was upset.

The President also raised concerns about the change in the event venue and suggested that the new location made it difficult for people to attend. She said she did not know why the state administration had not permitted the programme at the earlier venue.

Prime minister criticises Bengal government

Reacting to the developments, Prime Minister Modi described the situation as “shameful and unprecedented”. In a post on social media, he said the incident had saddened people who believe in democracy and in empowering tribal communities.

He added that the pain expressed by President Murmu had caused widespread concern and accused the West Bengal government of disrespecting the office of the President. The Prime Minister also said the dignity of the President’s position should remain above political disputes.

Speaking at a public event later, Modi said the developments were particularly unfortunate as they occurred on International Women’s Day. He alleged that the Trinamool Congress government had boycotted both the tribal event and the President.

Mamata Banerjee denies protocol violation

Banerjee rejected the allegations, saying no protocol lapse occurred during the visit.

According to the chief minister, the event had been organised by a private body, the International Santal Council, which invited the President to attend the conference in Siliguri. She said the district administration had warned the President’s Secretariat that the organisers lacked adequate arrangements to host such a programme.

Banerjee also stated that the advance team from the President’s Secretariat visited the site earlier in March and was informed about the shortcomings but the event continued as scheduled.

She added that officials including the mayor of Siliguri Municipal Corporation, the Darjeeling district magistrate and the Siliguri police commissioner received and saw off the President according to the approved protocol lineup.

The chief minister said she was not part of the official lineup or the event’s dais plan and accused the BJP of using the country’s highest constitutional office for political purposes.

Centre seeks report from state

The issue escalated further after Union Home Secretary Govind Mohan wrote to West Bengal Chief Secretary Nandini Chakravorty seeking a report on alleged lapses during the President’s visit.

According to sources, the letter asked why senior state officials such as the chief minister, the chief secretary and the director general of police were not present to receive the President. It also raised concerns about reports of poor arrangements at the venue, including the absence of water in a washroom designated for the President and garbage along the route.

Officials from the Darjeeling district administration and Siliguri police were also mentioned in the communication, with the Centre seeking details of any action taken.

The controversy has now turned into a sharp political confrontation between the Centre and the West Bengal government.

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