English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Published

on

India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

India News

Omar Abdullah distances INDIA bloc from Congress’s vote chori campaign

Omar Abdullah has clarified that the INDIA opposition bloc is not linked to the Congress’s ‘vote chori’ campaign, saying each party is free to set its own agenda.

Published

on

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference leader Omar Abdullah has drawn a clear line between the INDIA opposition bloc and the Congress’s ongoing ‘vote chori’ campaign, stating that the alliance has no role in the issue being raised by the grand old party.

Speaking to the media, Abdullah said every political party within the alliance is free to decide its own priorities. He underlined that the Congress has chosen to focus on alleged irregularities linked to voter lists and electoral processes, while other parties may pursue different agendas.

According to Abdullah, the INDIA bloc as a collective is not associated with the ‘vote chori’ narrative. He added that no party within the alliance should dictate what issues another constituent should raise in public discourse.

The remarks came days after the Congress organised a large rally in the national capital to intensify its campaign. The party has alleged that the Election Commission is working in favour of the BJP to influence electoral outcomes. Both the poll body and the ruling party have rejected these claims.

INDIA bloc cohesion under scrutiny

Abdullah’s comments have gained significance as they follow his recent observation that the INDIA bloc is currently on “life support”. That remark, made during an interaction at a leadership summit in Delhi, triggered mixed reactions from alliance partners.

At the event, Abdullah had said the opposition grouping revives intermittently but struggles to maintain momentum, especially after electoral setbacks. He also pointed to the Bihar political developments, suggesting that decisions taken by the alliance may have contributed to Nitish Kumar returning to the NDA fold. He further cited the inability to accommodate the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Bihar seat-sharing talks as a missed opportunity.

Allies respond to Omar Abdullah’s remarks

Reactions from within the INDIA bloc reflected differing views on Abdullah’s assessment. RJD leader Manoj Jha termed the remarks “rushed” and said responsibility for strengthening the alliance lies with all constituents, including Abdullah himself.

CPI general secretary D Raja called for introspection among alliance partners, questioning the lack of coordination despite the stated objective of defeating the BJP and safeguarding democratic values.

Samajwadi Party MP Rajeev Rai disagreed with the “life support” analogy, saying electoral defeats are part of politics and should not demoralise opposition forces. He cautioned that internal pessimism only serves the BJP’s interests.

BJP targets opposition unity

The BJP seized on the comments to attack the opposition bloc’s unity. Senior leader Shahnawaz Hussain dismissed the INDIA alliance as defunct, claiming it lost relevance after the Lok Sabha elections and lacks leadership and a clear policy direction.

Abdullah’s latest clarification on the ‘vote chori’ campaign reinforces the visible differences within the opposition alliance, even as its constituents continue to debate strategy and coordination ahead of future political battles.

Continue Reading

India News

Nitin Nabin terms BJP working president role a party blessing, thanks leadership

BJP national working president Nitin Nabin has termed his appointment a blessing of the party, thanking its leadership and pledging to work on the ideals of his late father.

Published

on

Nitin Nabin

Newly appointed BJP national working president Nitin Nabin on Monday described his elevation as a blessing bestowed by the party and expressed gratitude to its top leadership for placing faith in him.

Speaking to reporters in Patna after paying floral tributes to a statue of his late father, former BJP MLA Nabin Kishor Prasad Sinha, the Bihar minister said he would continue to work on the principles he inherited from his family and the organisation.

“I have always worked on the ideas of my father, who treated the party like his mother and put the nation above everything else. I believe that is why the party has given me this responsibility,” Nabin said. He later visited Mahavir Mandir in the city to offer prayers.

Gratitude to Prime Minister, focus on Antyodaya

Thanking Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his guidance, Nabin said development under the current leadership has reached towns and villages across the country. He added that the party has expanded its presence and emerged as a platform representing the poor.

According to Nabin, no section of society has remained untouched by the welfare initiatives of the NDA government. He said the idea of Antyodaya has now reached every corner of India, recalling the contributions of Deendayal Upadhyaya, Syama Prasad Mookerjee and Atal Bihari Vajpayee in shaping the philosophy.

On elections and party organisation

Responding to questions on upcoming elections, including in West Bengal, Nabin said BJP workers remain active at all times. He remarked that unlike other parties, BJP cadres work round the year and remain prepared in every state.

At 45, Nabin is a five-time MLA from the Bankipur assembly constituency and has served twice as a minister in the Bihar government. He comes from an RSS background and is currently part of the Nitish Kumar-led state cabinet.

A generational shift in the party

Nabin’s appointment as national working president on Sunday was seen as a significant organisational move. The position, though not mentioned in the party constitution, has earlier served as a transition role before elevation to the top post.

Prime Minister Modi publicly endorsed the decision, describing Nabin as a hardworking and grounded leader with strong organisational experience. Party leaders have projected the move as part of a generational shift, with Nabin expected to follow a trajectory similar to that of the current national president, who had earlier served as working president before taking charge of the organisation.

Continue Reading

India News

BJP demands Sonia Gandhi’s apology over Congress rally slogan targeting PM Modi

A slogan raised against Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a Congress rally in Jaipur has sparked a political storm, with the BJP demanding an apology from Sonia Gandhi and other senior Congress leaders.

Published

on

A political controversy has erupted after a slogan referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “grave” was raised during a Congress rally in Jaipur, prompting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to demand an apology from senior Congress leaders, including Sonia Gandhi.

The slogan was raised at a ‘Vote Chor Gaddi Chhod’ rally held in Rajasthan’s capital, where Manju Lata Meena, Jaipur women’s Congress district president, led a group chanting the remark against the Prime Minister. The rally was organised to highlight the Opposition’s allegations of vote theft against the BJP.

When questioned later, Meena defended her statement, saying it reflected public anger over alleged electoral issues. She also accused the Prime Minister of diverting attention from concerns related to employment, youth, women and farmers.

BJP seeks apology from Congress leadership

The remarks triggered sharp reactions from the ruling party. BJP president and Union minister JP Nadda raised the issue in the Rajya Sabha, calling the slogan highly objectionable and accusing the Congress of revealing its mindset through such language. He demanded an apology from Sonia Gandhi, chairperson of the Congress Parliamentary Party, and Mallikarjun Kharge, the Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House.

Union minister Kiren Rijiju also criticised the slogan, saying political rivals are not enemies and such statements cross acceptable boundaries. Addressing a press conference, he urged Kharge and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi to apologise on the floor of both Houses of Parliament. Rijiju said it was unfortunate that Congress workers were using language that appeared to incite violence against a constitutional authority.

Congress response and allies’ reactions

Congress MP Manickam Tagore dismissed the BJP’s reaction, claiming that the rally had unsettled ruling party leaders. He said the response from BJP leaders showed they were rattled by the Opposition’s campaign.

However, some of Congress’s allies distanced themselves from the slogan. A Samajwadi Party MP said political differences should not translate into disrespectful language for those holding constitutional posts. A senior leader of the Nationalist Congress Party (SP) also termed the slogan inappropriate, stating that regardless of political disagreements, the Prime Minister’s position must be respected.

The episode has added to the ongoing war of words between the BJP and the Congress, with both sides trading accusations as Parliament’s Winter Session continues.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com