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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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8 years ago

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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Delhi air quality plunges to severe as thick smog blankets the capital

Delhi’s air quality deteriorated sharply with AQI entering the ‘severe’ zone across several areas, prompting enforcement of GRAP stage-IV measures.

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4 hours ago

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December 23, 2025

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Delhi's air quality

Delhi woke up to hazardous air conditions on Tuesday as dense smog covered large parts of the national capital, pushing the Air Quality Index (AQI) into the ‘severe’ category across several locations. Poor visibility and rising health concerns marked yet another spell of extreme pollution in the city.

Data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) showed the overall AQI in Delhi touching 413 in the morning, placing it firmly in the ‘severe’ bracket. Several areas across the National Capital Region (NCR) reported alarming pollution levels, indicating a widespread deterioration in air quality.

Pollution hotspots report hazardous readings

Some of Delhi’s major pollution hotspots recorded extremely high AQI levels. Anand Vihar topped the list with an AQI of 466, followed by Ashok Vihar at 444 and Chandni Chowk at 425. These areas remained in the ‘severe’ category, posing serious health risks, especially for children, the elderly and those with respiratory conditions.

Even central parts of the city were not spared. India Gate, Kartavya Path and the Rashtrapati Bhavan area were shrouded in toxic smog, with AQI levels around 384, categorised as ‘very poor’.

GRAP stage-IV measures enforced across Delhi-NCR

In response to the worsening situation, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) enforced all actions under GRAP Stage-IV across Delhi-NCR. As part of these emergency measures, truck-mounted water sprinklers were deployed to suppress dust and reduce particulate matter in the air.

As per AQI standards, readings between 401 and 500 fall under the ‘severe’ category, while levels above 300 are considered ‘very poor’, highlighting the seriousness of the current conditions.

Delhi government reviews pollution control steps

The Delhi government has reiterated its commitment to tackling rising pollution levels with strict enforcement measures. Chief Minister Rekha Gupta stated that a zero-tolerance policy will be followed against all sources contributing to air pollution in the capital.

A high-level review meeting was held at the Delhi Secretariat to assess existing measures and take further decisions. The meeting focused on enforcing Pollution Under Control (PUC) norms without any relaxation, exploring pooled and shared electric bus services across Delhi-NCR, issuing fresh guidelines for e-rickshaws, and rationalising Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) bus routes.

Senior officials from the Environment and Transport Departments, the Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC), Public Works Department (PWD) and Delhi Traffic Police, along with Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa, attended the meeting to finalise immediate and long-term steps to address the pollution crisis.

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Rahul Gandhi alleges institutional bias, questions electoral system during Berlin address

Rahul Gandhi alleged that India’s institutions and electoral system have been weaponised to favour the BJP, remarks that sparked a strong political response.

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5 hours ago

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December 23, 2025

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Rahul-Gandhi

Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, has said that India’s institutional framework is facing a serious challenge and has been used to favour the ruling BJP. Speaking during an interaction at the Hertie School in Berlin, Gandhi questioned the functioning of key institutions and the electoral machinery, remarks that triggered a sharp political response from the BJP.

Gandhi said the Congress believes there is a problem with the electoral system and alleged that several institutions have been captured. Referring to investigative agencies, he claimed that bodies such as the CBI and the ED have been used as political tools. According to him, cases filed by these agencies overwhelmingly target those opposing the BJP, while leaders from the ruling party face none.

He also pointed to what he described as a stark financial imbalance between the BJP and the opposition, claiming a funding ratio of 30:1. Gandhi said this disparity reflects how institutions are being used to consolidate political power.

Opposition strategy and INDIA alliance

The Congress leader said merely pointing out problems in elections is not enough and stressed the need for the opposition to build a system of resistance that can effectively counter the ruling party. He added that the challenge now goes beyond electoral contests and is about presenting an alternative vision for the country.

On the INDIA alliance, Gandhi said the unity among opposition parties is rooted in their rejection of the ideological position of the RSS. While acknowledging that tactical contests between alliance partners will continue, he said they remain united when it comes to opposing laws they disagree with and working together in Parliament.

BJP hits back at remarks abroad

Gandhi’s comments delivered overseas drew a strong reaction from the BJP. Party president and Union minister JP Nadda accused him of speaking against India while Parliament is in session and claimed that he was undermining the country’s image at a time when the Prime Minister is receiving global recognition.

BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla also criticised Gandhi, alleging that he routinely travels abroad to defame India. He accused the Congress leader of making misleading claims about the country’s institutions and economic activity while praising China.

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DU VC Prof Yogesh Singh entrusted with additional charge of AICTE Chairman

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22 hours ago

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December 22, 2025

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Prof. Yogesh Singh, Vice Chancellor of the University of Delhi, has been entrusted with the additional charge of the post of Chairman, AICTE till the appointment of a Chairman of AICTE or until further orders, whichever is earlier.

It is noteworthy that AICTE Chairman Prof. TG Sitharam was relieved of his duties after his term ended on December 20, 2025. According to a letter issued by the Ministry of Education, Government of India, on Monday, Prof. Yogesh Singh’s appointment is until the appointment of a regular AICTE Chairman or until further orders whichever is earlier.

Prof. Yogesh Singh is a renowned academician with excellent administrative capabilities, who has been the Vice-Chancellor of University of Delhi since October 2021. He has also served as the Chairperson of the National Council for Teacher Education. In August 2023, he was also given the additional charge of Director of the School of Planning and Architecture (SPA).

Prof. Yogesh Singh served as the Vice-Chancellor of Delhi Technological University from 2015 to 2021; Director of Netaji Subhas Institute of Technology, Delhi from 2014 to 2017, and before that, he was the Vice-Chancellor of Maharaja Sayajirao University, Baroda (Gujarat) from 2011 to 2014. He holds a Ph.D. in Computer Engineering from the National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra. He has a distinguished track record in quality teaching, innovation, and research in the field of software engineering.

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