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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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BJP and Shiv Sena reach broad seat-sharing deal ahead of BMC elections

BJP and Shiv Sena are close to finalising seat-sharing for 200 wards ahead of the BMC elections, while opposition parties intensify alliance talks across Maharashtra.

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BJP Shivsena

The BJP and Shiv Sena have almost sealed their seat-sharing arrangement for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, with an understanding reached on 200 of the total 227 wards in Mumbai, according to sources. The civic body polls are scheduled to be held on January 15.

The agreement was discussed during a late-night meeting of the Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. The meeting took place at Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s residence in Thane and focused on strategy for several key municipal corporations, including Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli and Navi Mumbai.

Sources said similar meetings are lined up for Mumbai and other civic bodies such as Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Panvel and Mira-Bhayandar, as alliance partners work to finalise ward-level arrangements and campaign planning.

Congress explores new alliances in Mumbai

In Mumbai, Congress leaders are scheduled to meet Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi as the party looks to rebuild its alliance structure after parting ways with the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction). The distancing followed Sena (UBT)’s decision to join hands with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray.

Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut has confirmed that the party will contest the BMC elections in alliance with the MNS and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. The inclusion of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) comes after Sharad Pawar rejected a proposal from the Ajit Pawar-led faction that offered limited seat allocation.

Despite the split, sources indicated that discussions may continue, with meetings expected between Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule and her cousin Ajit Pawar to determine future political moves.

Local body strategies take shape across Maharashtra

Meanwhile, MNS chief Raj Thackeray is set to hold a meeting with party leaders at his Shivtirth residence to finalise the party’s election strategy, including campaign issues and candidate selection.

In Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Shiv Sena MLA and minister Sanjay Shirsat will meet BJP leaders, including state ministers Chandrakant Bawankule and Atul Save, to discuss preparations for the civic polls.

Seat-sharing talks are also underway in Mira-Bhayandar, where Shiv Sena leader Pratap Sarnaik and BJP MLA Narendra Mehta are expected to hold discussions. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP, however, is planning to contest the elections independently in the region.

Panvel is set to witness a major opposition meeting involving Sena (UBT), Congress, MNS, NCP (SP), Samajwadi Party and the VBA. The gathering, led by the Peasants and Workers Party, will focus on finalising seat-sharing arrangements and joint election strategies.

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Op Aaghat 3.0: Delhi police arrest over 280 accused ahead of New Year celebrations

Delhi police arrested over 280 accused and detained more than 1,300 individuals under Operation Aaghat 3.0 ahead of New Year, seizing weapons, drugs, liquor and stolen items.

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Op Aaghat 3.0: Delhi police arrest over 280 accused ahead of New Year celebrations

Delhi police carried out a large-scale preventive crackdown across sensitive pockets of the national capital ahead of New Year, arresting hundreds of accused and detaining over a thousand individuals to ensure peaceful celebrations.

The overnight operation, conducted under Operation Aaghat 3.0, focused on crime-prone areas and resulted in major seizures, including illegal weapons, narcotics, illicit liquor, cash and stolen property, according to police officials.

Major arrests and seizures during the drive

As part of the intensified security drive, at least 285 accused were arrested under various legal provisions, including the Arms Act, Excise Act, NDPS Act and Gambling Act. In addition, 504 people were detained as a precautionary measure to prevent any untoward incidents during the festive period.

Police officials said the operation led to the recovery of 21 illegal weapons, including country-made pistols, along with 20 live cartridges and 27 knives. Authorities also seized over 12,000 quarters of illicit liquor, around Rs 2.5 lakh in cash, and nearly 7 kg of cannabis from different locations.

Focus on habitual offenders and vehicle theft

The crackdown also targeted repeat offenders. Under the operation, 116 habitual offenders, referred to by police as “bad characters,” were taken into custody, while 10 property offenders were arrested.

To curb vehicle-related crimes during New Year celebrations, police dismantled auto-lifting networks and arrested five auto-lifters. During the raids, 231 two-wheelers and one four-wheeler were seized.

Action against gambling and stolen goods

In a parallel action against gambling activities, police recovered Rs 2.3 lakh in cash. The operation also led to the recovery of about 210 stolen or lost mobile phones, offering relief to several complainants.

Apart from arrests and detentions, a total of 1,306 individuals were rounded up under preventive measures, officials added, stating that the coordinated effort was aimed at maintaining law and order and ensuring a crime-free New Year in the capital.

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Over 2,000 Maoists surrender under Chhattisgarh rehabilitation policy, says CM Vishnu Deo Sai

Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai said more than 2,000 Maoists have surrendered under the state’s rehabilitation policy, which offers skill training, financial assistance and land support.

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CM surrender Maoist

Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai on Friday said that more than 2,000 Maoists have surrendered so far under the state’s rehabilitation policy, asserting that the government is committed to treating surrendered cadres fairly and supporting their reintegration into society.

Addressing the issue, the Chief Minister said the state government has repeatedly appealed to Maoists to abandon violence and gunfire and return to the mainstream of development. He said the impact of these efforts is now visible, with a large number of cadres laying down arms.

According to Vishnu Deo Sai, the rehabilitation framework focuses on long-term welfare. Surrendered Maoists are being provided skill training along with monthly financial assistance of Rs 10,000. He added that the new policy also includes provisions for allotment of land for farming and land to build houses in urban areas, aimed at securing their future and livelihood.

Fresh surrenders reported from Bijapur

Earlier, 34 Naxals surrendered in Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district under the state government’s rehabilitation initiative titled Poona Margham: Punarvas Se Punarjeevan (Return to the Mainstream: Social Reintegration through Rehabilitation). Police officials said the surrendered cadres were carrying a cumulative reward of Rs 84 lakh.

Officials noted that the latest surrenders reflect the growing impact of sustained anti-Naxal measures combined with confidence-building initiatives focused on welfare and reintegration.

Centre’s target to eliminate Naxalism by March 2026

The Chief Minister’s remarks come amid the Central Government’s stated goal to eradicate Naxalism from the country by March 2026 under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Authorities believe that rehabilitation-driven policies, along with security operations, are playing a key role in weakening the influence of Left-wing extremism in affected regions.

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